Standard Russian victim complex.

We are not sending our tanks to their borders

No, but you are sending your borders to our tanks

We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks.

When was the last time Russia was threatened by Leopard tanks?

I take consolation that at some point in the future, Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev et al will die. I hope I make it to see that time. For now, as I think I have mentioned before, I wish them a happy hospice and palliative care.

Talk of a boycott of the Paris olympics is gaining momentum after the IOC said Russians and Belarusians can compete as independent athletes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/64503198

^^ Yeah, I saw that. Sod the Olympic committee. I love watching the Olympics but Russian/ Belarusian athletes just shouldn’t be allowed to compete, full stop.

When was the last time Russia was threatened by Leopard tanks?

I think Germany did produce an armoured vehicle called the leopard during WW2 but no idea whether it was used on the Eastern front or whatever.

But yeah, the shit Russia is spouting isn’t even worth fact checking it’s so removed from reality.

BBC News – Ukraine war: US to provide long-range missiles in latest aid package
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64518532

Does anyone know a bit more detail about what this means? I know that Ukraine has been asking for ATACMS for a long time, and this does not look like that, so what is it, what are the main differences and how useful is it likely to be?

These, apparently.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-rocket-powered-bomb-would-double-ukraines-strike-range-2023-02-01/

Does anyone know a bit more detail about what this means?

“(BRIGADIER) GEN(ERAL PAT) RYDER: So — thanks for the question, Joe. So — so yes, as part of the USAI package, we will be providing Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs to Ukraine. This gives them a longer-range capability – long-range fires capability that will enable them, again, to conduct operations in defense of their country and to take back their sovereign territory in Russian-occupied areas.” Full briefing here… https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3288141/pentagon-press-secretary-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press-briefing/

The longer-range capability stretches to Crimea so Russian logistics will be under threat in most of the occupied Luhansk/Donetsk region

The full package is in two parts; one from US military stock and one from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds… https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3287992/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

The GLSDB is USAI, which will come from industry and SAAB-Boeing originally said that they could deliver in Spring ’23.
The two major GLSDB components are stock items in many NATO countries, the new bit is the interface to enable the rocket and bomb sections to work together. They can be fired from the M270 and M142 launchers that Ukraine already has, although I don’t know if these will need some modification.

As far as I’m aware ATACMS is not on the table for Ukraine, but Abrams weren’t a few weeks ago either 🙂

In WWII German tanks were Tigers and Panthers (plus others) but no leopards – they also had Puma armoured cars.

When was the last time Russia was threatened by Leopard tanks?

I think Germany did produce an armoured vehicle called the leopard during WW2 but no idea whether it was used on the Eastern front or whatever.

There were no Leopards in WW2.

I think the Russians would claim they were threatened by Leopard tanks during the Cold War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_combat_vehicles_of_World_War_II

There were no Leopards in WW2.

None manufactured, but there were plans to make a light reconnaissance AFV bearing the Leopard name and designs were produced.  The project got canned in 1943.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/VK_16.02_Leopard

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine-russia-war-rheinmetall/

REALLY, 88, from Germany, surely they could have found another to avoid that number!!!!

In case anyone is unfamiliar with the meaning, https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/88

^^ 😲 Oops!

Good news though, despite the inadvertent (I hope) dodgy symbolism!  Older Leo 1s though, but will still be put to good use I’m sure.

This really is a proxy NATO war now. I am worried that Putin will go “**** it, I’m all in” on the 24th.

Good news though, despite the inadvertent (I hope) dodgy symbolism!

They’re just numbers, both Germany and the UK supplied 14 MBTs, which has symbolic meaning for some.
Germany ordered 44 L2 A6 for Panzerbataillone 363 as one of two batallions in Panzergrenadierbrigade 37, presumably a total of 90 (with two Buffel recovery vehicles)

I’m sure that the numbers will be seized upon, after all, the first casualty in war is the truth (see Leopard/WW2 discussion^^) 🙂

My understanding is that 14 tanks make up a convenient unit, which is why we’re seeing so many multiples of 14 or so (nothing wrong with a couple of spares lol)

This really is a proxy NATO war now

I would argue it always was, which I don’t view as a necessarily negative thing, it’s just how geopolitics work

It would have been a Proxy War against NATO regardless of western support as it’s (to a degree you could argue about) meant to strengthen Russias hand against the west/NATO long term.

It would have been a Proxy War against NATO regardless of western support as it’s (to a degree you could argue about) meant to strengthen Russias hand against the west/NATO long term

Yep, latest round of the Great Game I guess

This really is a proxy NATO war now

It’s not a proxy war. Ukraine is fighting to defend itself against a brutal Russian invasion, it’s not a proxy for NATO. Russia is doing its own fighting, it has no proxy in this war.

The West supplying Ukraine with weapons does not make it a proxy war. The whole proxy war thing is just a desperate attempt by Russian propagandists to portray Russia as the victim of Western aggression. Utter nonsense.

This really is a proxy NATO war now

IMHO it isn’t.
Argentina has sent humanitarian aid
Australia military and humanitarian aid
Austria humanitarian aid (inc. helmets, body armour and fuel for civilian services)
Azerbaijan military and humanitarian aid
and that’s just the non-NATO countries beginning with A

Some watershed moments in non-NATO countries/organisations bordering Russia:
The EU has broken one of its principles by supplying military aid, described by Ursula von der Leyen as “a watershed moment,”
Finland isn’t a NATO member but would now like to be…

There are many side-effects to this war, e.g. maintaining and supporting a geopolitical barrier between the west and an increasingly aggressive Russia, but ultimately this war is all about maintaining the sovereignty of a nation and allowing the people who live there the freedom to choose

This is quite a nice article on whether it’s a proxy war

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/is-the-war-in-ukraine-a-proxy-conflict

TL, DR:
Short answer: No
Slightly longer answer: It’s not quite as simple as that, but still prob no

It’s not a proxy war, but Russia wants you to think it is 🤷‍♂️

I’m prob missing the finer details here, but why is Vietnam thought of as a proxy war but Ukraine isn’t?

The understanding we worked on was defined by the instigator not being involved. ‘Involve’ defined as being overtly active in military action with conventional forces.

The understanding we worked on was defined by the instigator not being involved

That would make sense

why is Vietnam thought of as a proxy war but Ukraine isn’t?

Because it was largely driven by the U.S. and the Communist Bloc. The North and South Vietnamese were proxies for other countries in a larger global conflict. The U.S. and U.S.S.R. were in a cold war and wanted to avoid that escalating to a nuclear holocaust so they supported proxies in local regional conflicts. It’s also possible that Vietnamese leaders didn’t see it as a proxy war, they many have taken the view that they were acting in their own interests. One of the problems with calling something a proxy war is that it denies the agency of the people doing the fighting. In the case of Ukraine, they are most definitely not fighting for the benefit of NATO even if NATO countries benefit from Russia being defeated.

“An unnamed advisor to the Ukrainian military told Financial Times that Russia intends to launch an offensive in the next 10 days (by February 15), a timeline that would allow Russian forces to strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates (6th Feb assessment)

Russia has been concentrating forces and mobilised troops for a while. If it happens this will become more terrible bloodshed for two fatigued armies with little gained.

I still believe that if the weather follows normal patterns there’s the spring thaw and rain to contend with. An early offensive is unlikely to achieve much given that short timescale, but it must be a temptation knowing that delay will lead to western-trained Ukrainian AFV crews supported by infantry and western armour.

The Russian decision will depend on whether the yet-again-newly-appointed RF military commanders tell the truth in the sack and blame culture

The big group Russia sent to Belarus, thats gone quiet about that but I think all the bridges across the river forming the border have been taken out. And Lukashenko… still AWOL in Africa?

Will the rushed offensive be even worse prepared than the other ones?

Depends what they do. If they flatten with artillery then creep forward, it’s pretty hard to stop, even if it’s a meat grinder. Putin doesn’t care how many die though.

If they flatten with artillery then creep forward, it’s pretty hard to stop, even if it’s a meat grinder.

Jeez – is it 1917 already?

Jeez – is it 1917 already?

Google ‘Bakhmut battlefield’ and look a the images that come back.

As far as Russia are concerned, it’s been 1917 for a while.

The only big difference now is that with Ukrainian spotter drones, radar and HIMARS teams a sustained creeping artillery barrage will be much harder for Russia to sustain as any artillery unit that doesn’t reposition after a few rounds will get targeted and destroyed.

The immense ammunition supplies needed to sustain such a strategy will also be hugely tempting targets as they will need to be held close to the front in order to be used.

Sadly Russians have learned and moved ammo dumps back out of HIMARS range. If/when these new GLSDB turn up in Ukraine with longer range we could see more fireworks.

The other problem Russians will have is wearing out the artillery barrels.

Loads of news articles were saying throughout December that they were running out of ammunition, so hopefully they haven’t got enough, their old equipment gives out and they end up stuck in the mud again when the thaw starts.

Sadly Russians have learned and moved ammo dumps back out of HIMARS range.

That’s what I was getting at, if they want to do a creeping a barrage across a wide enough front they will need to move these ammo reserves closer again otherwise they’re not going to be able to deliver enough shells fast enough. Putting them very much back on the menu for the Ukrainians.

Whilst it will be grim for the Ukrainians on the receiving end I actually feel that a hugely costly attempt at a Russian advance, driven by political imperatives from the Kremlin rather than a sober assessment of actual battlefield capacity may be just what breaks the deadlock and gives Ukraine’s planned counter attack with Western Armour the best chance of being a decisive blow.

Google ‘Bakhmut battlefield’ and look a the images that come back.

As far as Russia are concerned, it’s been 1917 for a while.

I know – it was a kinda sarcastic post based on Russia’s very backward methods – employing 100+ yr old tactics. I guess that’s fitting given how old most of their equipment is too.

Notorious Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev shot dead in Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64566582

Worth a little read that. The guy that’s been killed was a nasty piece of work and might have been killed by a rival mercenary/gangster…