Nobody knows for sure, but its likely going to be in the thousands anyway. And they can and will build more. So while the latest battle didnt use massed tanks, thats not to say subsequent battles will be fought the same way.

I think all we can hope for is to push Russia back across the border and leave it at that. But to do that means retaking the Donbas region, and thats only going to happen years hence, with considerable cost to both sides.

Nobody knows for sure, but its likely going to be in the thousands anyway. And they can and will build more.

If Russia was able to build more modern tanks, they would have done so already. Same with pulling tanks out of reserve. They’ve already sent pretty much everything they can muster to the front. They do have thousands of old Cold War tanks in storage, but they will need extensive overhauls. The engines and transmissions will need to be stripped and rebuilt pretty much from scratch just to make them mobile. The armour will need to be upgraded with reactive armour, plus the electronic systems will need to be replaced with modern gear. Without modern armour and electronics, they will be sitting ducks for Ukrainian missiles and tanks. The electronics systems will use a lot of imported components that Russia cannot produce locally.

Milk and two sugars?

🙂 👍

It’ll certainly help Ukraine having armoured squadrons, it’s just another string to their defence…snip

It’s more important at this stage to turn this slogfest of attrition around, tanks will help in that. Longer range missiles, aircraft, etc would also be a big advantage and Russia has spaffed that advantage in its attacks on civilian targets
It won’t have been missed in Moscow that western resolve has hardened when Germany decided to supply MBTs and they will be a lot more convinced that the west is in this for the long run
I’m not convinced that western aircraft are a short-term solution for Ukraine, but missiles would be. More tough decisions to come

It won’t have been missed in Moscow that western resolve has hardened when Germany decided to supply MBTs and they will be a lot more convinced that the west is in this for the long run

This is there whole gambit isnt it? To simply endure longer than the west by buying time on the battlefield with Russian lives. But theres only so long they can do that before the political situation in Moscow changes against Putins control.

Which is fine if you can inflict long term harm on the west, but thats looking increasingly less likely following the energy markets adjustments. (Funny how the freezing Europe narrative has largely died away and were back to Bio Nazi Satanists)

There will be price rises rises again Im sure, but nothing like we had last year now that much of the uncertainty has been removed from the pricing. And its not even just the west moving against Russia, both India and China are forcing heavy discounts on Putin (when not killing each other over a border dispute and investing heavily in infrastructure to improve military logistics to that border). And China isnt (unless Ive missed something) offering much more than words in terms of connecting to Russias main (the main fields that supply Europe arent connected) gas pipeline network either and has instead been busy signing LPG contracts with other suppliers.

Supposedly even some of the other raw materials Russia was heavily involved in have found new sources triggered by customers looking for reliable supplies, especially in the Americas.

Itll still drag on in to next year in my uneducated view.

Useful thread on NATO tanks.

Soon Challenger 2, Leopard 2A5/6 and M1A1/2 Abrams will roam across the Ukrainian steppe to hunt and destroy russian armor.

All three are leagues better than what the russians field, but tanks on their own are useless. So, an easy to understand thread about combined arms 🧵:
1/n pic.twitter.com/rPeUBV5m7V

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) January 27, 2023

I dont think the Challenger 2’s will be roaming anywhere. The UK is very very keen that the Russians don’t get a hold of a destroyed one.

I dont think the Challenger 2’s will be roaming anywhere.

Are you saying they will be sent to Ukraine with some kind of caveat that they aren’t used??  What would be the point of that? I predict they will be used aggressively and effectively by Ukrainian tank crews once they get to grips with them and integrate them properly into a combined arms formation. The MoD will have carried out a risk assessment which will have acknowledged the risk of loss or capture. Whilst I’m sure they wouldn’t be chuffed about it, they accept it might happen. I suspect some of the more sensitive equipment will be withheld because of this. The Challenger 2 was used operationally in Bosnia, Kosovo and the Iraq war and has also been sold to Oman so there has always been a risk of loss or compromise.  Although upgraded several times it is a relatively old (though still very capable) tank soon due to be replaced by Challenger 3.

I would imagine there will be a procedure for destroying a disabled tank in the event it could be captured.
Hit it with himars or air to ground munitions. Trouble is with 35mm armour you risk reducing it to man portable lumps by blowing it up more.
Probably some men with pixelated faces from the uk will be around in the worst case of an intact tank being overun or more likely breakdown in a fwd area.

I read whatt to the layman suggested a reasonable reason for Challengers not going to the main front lines.

Theyd be park on the Belarus border along with the Abrams, and the Leopards would go ti the active rront line.

Shortens and secures the logistics for the small number of Challengers, the hard to maintain Abrams whilst securing that border freeing up Soviet built units to go east.

Leaving the Leapords as the only supply and maintenance chain that needs to be built ti the front line.

Just some dude on the internet admittedly but it sounded plausible.

Original purpose of these exact tanks was to take on the Russians on some Central or Eastern European plain. The risk of losing a tank to the Russians was always there.

Theyd be park on the Belarus border along with the Abrams

The UK has said it wants the Challengers in theatre by March. The Abrams haven’t even been built yet and won’t be there for at least a year. The Ukrainians are already operating a very mixed fleet of armoured vehicles very effectively. Yes, it complicates the logistics but there is no way they are going to let capable gen 3 MBTs they have been begging for, languish unused at the rear somewhere.

The risk of losing a tank to the Russians was always there.

Yes but in the full conflict scenario the chances are the Russians wouldnt have been able to make use of any captured equipment in time.
As it would take time to analysis the armour, for example, and then either build weapons which are specifically designed against it or to start including knockoff armour on your own tanks.

Sounds like the Poles are sending another batch of the more recently upgraded PT-91s as well as Leopards. Think the UAF have been using older versions for a while now.

I could be way off the mark but I have a feeling that when they’re in Ukrainian hands Zelensky and his commanders will employ them how they see fit and to hell with the repercussions (if any).

And if anybody has put such conditions of use on their donation, they’d be a bloody fool to expect them to be honoured.

IMO of course.

Are you saying they will be sent to Ukraine with some kind of caveat that they aren’t used??

Not sure, article said something about them only being used to secure certain areas, where they can be easily recovered.

They even spoke about a forming a unit solely for recovery, especially in front line conditions.

But I dont know, understandable given how secret the new armour is.

I don’t think Russia will gain much by capturing a tank intact. They haven’t the luxury of time our expertise to develop new weapons to exploit weaknesses doing. It might just allow them to exploit them tactically at best.

The real beneficiary of any Intel gained will be Russia’s best buddy, China.

Even then, Russia getting a bloody nose in Ukraine will further deter them from a potential invasion of Taiwan in the near term anyway.

Edit: CNN reporting that the relevant armoured retrieval units are being sent too, though not many. Sorry, can’t remember their proper name. They can tow the tanks away for repair hopefully.

There are reports that Putin has told his generals he wants a large-scale offensive in the spring. It sounds like Ukraine wants to have NATO tanks in time to help repel that offensive, then to spearhead a counter-offensive.

#Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir #Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative that may begin as early as February or March 2023.https://t.co/eKDdT4ZCZt pic.twitter.com/iZaYtfAwZr

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 28, 2023

Short on time, Biden sought new Ukraine tank plan to break stalemate https://t.co/Sqn3XD7aEh

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 29, 2023

Not sure, article said something about them only being used to secure certain areas, where they can be easily recovered.
They even spoke about a forming a unit solely for recovery, especially in front line conditions.
But I dont know, understandable given how secret the new armour is.

Is it not also about recovering damaged tanks? Western doctrine is the safety of the crew and if a tank is disabled then the crew will sit tight and wait for recovery, like this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2908679.stm Sgt Baird in understatement of 2003 said: “It was quite an experience.”

Recovery of a MBT that can weigh up to 75T is no mean feat https://rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall_defence/systems_and_products/vehicle_systems/armoured_tracked_vehicles/crarrv/index.php
You’ve only got 14 tanks and fewer recovery vehicles, which are also needed to perform maintenance and repairs on other MBTs so you want it to be as safe and easy as possible

There are reports that Putin has told his generals he wants a large-scale offensive in the spring. It sounds like Ukraine wants to have NATO tanks in time to help repel that offensive, then to spearhead a counter-offensive.

There’s a window of opportunity before the spring thaw and rain; an early offensive is unlikely to achieve much given its short timescale, but that must be a temptation knowing that delay will lead to trained Ukrainian MBT crews supported by armour and infantry. That decision will depend on whether the yet-again-newly-appointed RF military commanders tell the truth in the sack and blame culture

Former Chair of NATO’s Military Committee and a former paratrooper, retired general Petr Pavel has been elected president of the Czech Republic and will take over in March.
70% voter turn-out and he doesn’t have the same opinions on Russia as the current Czech president (who had a late epiphany during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).
An impressive career https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petr_Pavel

Reports of explosions at several arms factories (making shaheed drones?) in Iran. Also footage of a drone being shot down in Iran. Responsibility is unclear.

Kurds / Israel being blamed by Iran. seems unlikely its ukraine

AnY Twitter links guys?

I can’t see anything on the BBC/ CNN.

Paywalled unfortunately.

Iran said three drones caused an explosion at an ammunition factory in the city of Isfahan https://t.co/7wyONb9lIi

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) January 29, 2023

Ammunitions factories and oil refineries are currently hit all over Iran. This is Azershahr. #Iran pic.twitter.com/Ct5oQXqsSe

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 28, 2023

^^ Cheers!

There’s been plenty of rumours that Iran swapped drones/missiles for uranium/nuclear tech with Russia. Esfahan has long been a site for the Iranian nuclear programme. I know who my money is on!!

I know who my money is on!!

Careless smoking incident, innit.

Great article in the Wall Street Journal about a massive armaments repair facility in Poland which is working around the clock to repair and refurbish damaged Ukrainian armour and artillery before shipping it back to Ukraine.  Factory technicians are also in direct contact with people on the ground giving them assistance in carrying out their own repairs in theatre.

Another of many examples of Poland punching way above its weight in supporting Ukraine.

Paywalled unfortunately.

https://archive.is/20230129003837/https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-ammunition-factory-hit-by-blast-11674951968

Anyone catch the 1st Episode of Putin vs The West last night ?

Really well put together documentary. Really unnerving seeing what this madman is like and how he operates.

Yep. The fact we allow them to swan around buying up half of europe is mind blowing really.

Which has raised a query, how much of that has since been siezed/frozen?

Which has raised a query, how much of that has since been siezed/frozen?

I can confidently answer “not as much as we might have hoped”…

Anyone catch the 1st Episode of Putin vs The West last night?

Yeah, comes across as a cold psychopath. He’s also surrounded by like-minded thugs.

Anyone catch the 1st Episode of Putin vs The West last night?

yep, watched the first and second episode and half of the third.
Little man suffering from SPS and delusions of grandeur, hiding behind an arsenal of nuclear weapons.
Comes across as a complete 🔔🔚 who likes threatening people to get his own way.
Typical dicktator.

Putting the ‘tater into dicktator since 1999

Watch out, Putin’s about, watch out, Putin’s about… You better watch out… Putin’s about!

Another day another veiled thread of nuclear Armageddon.

“Those who hope to defeat Russia on the battlefield do not understand, it seems, that a modern war with Russia will be very different for them,” the 70-year-old leader said. “We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond. It won’t be limited to the use of armoured hardware. Everyone must understand this.”

Loving the spin on the tanks being sent too.

“It’s unbelievable but true,” he said. “We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64502504

However, certainly looks plausible that Russia might make some renewed offensive on the one year anniversary of the start of the invasion. Ukraine saying that Russia has gathered 500,000 men for the offensive…

……..with what equipment???? Their elite troops fell apart 50km into Ukraine last spring, so what are they expecting to happen this time?

Equipped with kitchen knives, building site helmets, wooly jumpers and vodka.
They didn’t have any modern weapons for the last round of conscription so won’t be able to equip a regiment properly.

We are again being threatened by leopard tanks. Anyone care to point out the glaringly obvious reply
Firstly. You started it midget man.
Secondly. You weren’t being threatened by leopards before invading Ukraine, so its all on you buddy.