However,yeah, it’s obviously valid to keep as much tech hidden from Russia and their Chinese besties as possible of course.

Its a tricky balancing act. The classic example is the sidewinder.
It first got used in action by the Taiwanese. In one of the mini conflicts their jets had a lower max altitude than the Chinese jets and it was proving a significant disadvantage since the Chinese could pick when to fight.
So the Americans shipped out some technicians and first generation sidewinders out to Taiwan at which point the Chinese got a very unpleasant surprise.
One of the missiles though hit a Chinese jet without detonating and the pilot managed to fly home with it embedded in the plane and whilst he went for some new trousers the technicians got to work.
The Russians credit that one missile as being a massive boost for their entire missile project.
So on the one hand you risk them getting a massive boost to their armaments industry but on the other hand a weapon which isnt used for fear of it being copied is of limited use (doomsday weapons aside).

The flipside of course is its a safe bet several of those US cargo planes havent been empty when flying home.

Its a tricky balancing act. The classic example is the sidewinder.

I remember reading that Britain and Germany both invented radar jamming chaff (small strips of tinfoil that aircraft scatter to generate radar clutter) in WW2, but neither side deployed it immediately because they didn’t want the other side to know about it and then use it against them. Not sure if it’s true, but I’m sure that similar things happen all the time where both sides discover some trick but hold it back to avoid alerting the other side.

Enigma codes
They had to sacrifice some conveys otherwise Donitz would have guessed why they ships all turned round instead of sailing into a wolf pack.

snip…neither side deployed (chaff) immediately because they didn’t want the other side to know about it and then use it against them. Not sure if it’s true…

It is, but as radar systems developed better resolution it was felt that chaff was less of a problem and could be used
One of the options for Zuni rockets as supplied to Ukraine by the US is a chaff dispenser. I don’t know if that payload is in the assistance packages though

Enigma codes
They had to sacrifice some conveys otherwise Donitz would have guessed why they ships all turned round instead of sailing into a wolf pack.

On this note, I’m very suspicious about why the highly vaunted Russian cyberwarfare abilities never appeared. My suspicion is that the NSA etc. were watching and had probably infiltrated the Russian systems but didn’t want to tip their hand so they let the Russian botnets keep operating. In the weeks before the Russian invasion, the U.S. posted detailed plans of the Russian operation, making it obvious that Russian systems had been hacked. Those details would have alerted Russia that the U.S. had breached security, but the U.S. knew this so they served as a deliberate warning to Russia that their security was compromised. Once the invasion started, I’m guessing that the U.S. just crippled the Russian cyberwarfare capabilities, but there’s nothing Russia can do about it without acknowledging their covert activities.

The Ukrainian Ambassador compared Challenger 1 to a T72 on R4 today. Yes it’s older technology but it’s 20 to 30 years younger than a T72. Gift horses and all that.

Mark Hertling has a Twitter thread on M1 Abrams tanks.

So reducing the burden must be a key consideration…and in my professional opinion, the Abrams would cause more of a burden due to training & resupply to a force that's in a tough fight.

Also in my view, LEO II's would mean less of a burden.
19/

— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) January 21, 2023

On that subject

"US offers used tanks from its own stocks plus long term industrial partnership to every European country that can deliver Leopard 2 to 🇺🇦", 🇩🇪 defence industry circles claim. "Each country that accepts US offer is lost for 🇩🇪defence industry".https://t.co/ZfHx4DEYkT

— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) January 22, 2023

Poland is now buying tanks from the US and South Korea. A gigantic business is lost for Germany. It is particularly painful because one thing has become clear with the Polish decisions: Germany, the neighbor, is no longer a strategic, trustworthy partner. That’s now the faraway United States and even farther away South Korea. It is this confidence card that the US is now playing on in the Ukraine war.

In the background, they offer used tanks from their own stock as a replacement and a long-term industrial partnership to any country that could supply Leopard 2 to Ukraine. This is what is reported in German industrial circles. Any country that responds to the American offer is lost to the German tank industry. And with every country that loses German industry, Berlin’s political influence on its allies in NATO and the EU dwindles.

Baerbock saying Poland can send L2 tanks if they want….

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-wont-keep-poland-from-sending-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64480279?platform=android&mobileApp=true

Also many of Germany’s politicians are criticising Scholz for his indecision.

Hell.
Probably an airstrike with white phosphorus bombs.
Ukrainian soldiers seem calm, so no casualties.#lviv #FreeTheLeopards pic.twitter.com/k2fBlE9hcx

— TheLvivJournal (@LvivJournal) January 22, 2023

There is lots of weird politics going on around supply of equipment which is hard to understand unless, I suppose, you are an expert but even then I guess most of those who do have a clue about British armour isnt going to know much beyond that.
Its not helped by some of those countries being at the front of the queue offering weapons are doing so either because they are next up for Russia and/or are handing over their almost expired stock/obsolete weapons in order to get some decent kit in return.
As a random example its a bit of a shame we happened to have destroyed our old rapier missiles just before things kicked off. We could have saved a decent amount of cash safely destroying them if we had known and just stuck them 1st class to Ukraine.
I am not sure how much being able to hand your kit over to a third party will really be an influence with regards to the more expensive gear. For ammo sure (looking at Switzerland here) but for tanks or planes?

On that subject

I was wondering if someone would eventually consider this angle

Also many of Germany’s politicians are criticising Scholz for his indecision

@alpin
I’d be interested to hear your take on German politics. I think that most are aware that the SPD is in a coalition with the Green Party and the FPD, both of which seem to me to want to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine.

The SPD seems to me to be the party dragging its feet, which I find surprising given that coal mining has expanded as a result of the war and is contrary to green aims, as is war in itself. I expected the Green Party to be banging the ceasefire/negotiation drum, far from it, Robert Habeck (Green) allowed the expansion of coal mining and Katrin Goring-Eckardt (Green) called Scholz’s indecision disappointing.
I don’t read German, please help me out here.

Any thoughts on Russlandversteher/Putinversteher within the higher echelons of Germany?

@timba DW news is also in English. The exact same articles on the German site, just translated.

I can’t say about the general feeling of people because I’ve not been in Germany since October.

My feeling is that the older generation were generally against war, the “nie wieder Krieg” (lit. vet again war) generation. The ones who lived through the post war issues of Germany.

Some opinion pieces in the “High-brow” papers, those read by those with lots of time in their hands have been very much against delivering weapons (Krieg ist die falsche Reaktion auf Krieg)

War is the wrong reaction to war

DW, with a younger audience has opinion pieces criticising the delays.

One of my best mates wife is Ukrainian. It’s been hard for him and for us. She’s had several of her extended family members killed or seriously wounded. Her father, aged 62, spends his free time digging trenches and training along the Belarus border.

I can’t say about the general feeling of people because I’ve not been in Germany since October

Ah, okay. I’ve heard/read a lot from Jessica Berlin, who is associated with DW.
I was interested in that more general perspective, thanks for your comments and best wishes to your mate’s family

Some chatter now that the UA have entered the outskirts of Kreminna, pushing up from the forests to the SW of the town. If true it could be that they are able to start to push RA out of a vital logistics hub, pretty much severing the North / South logistics and supply route that runs through Svatove and into the North Donbas. This makes Severodonetsk vulnerable and will severely disrupt the RA logistics effort supporting Bakhmut and Soledar.

It’s certainly taking time, but the RA have been able to dig in and prepare a proper defensive line, with the troops to man it through conscription. Looks as if better weapons, tactics and training (not to mention morale) are winning through.

Few tanks wouldn’t go amiss though..

I’m not sure that this should be in the sunak thread, but FFS!

🚨 EXCLUSIVE INVESTIGATION – A vast cache of hacked material from Russia has shed new light on how the UK govt helped warlord Prigozhin mount a targeted legal attack on a journalist in London. This is #londongrad writ large. https://t.co/7NgNWlxwjF

— Jim Fitzpatrick (@jimfitznews) January 23, 2023

Needs to go on the Sunak thread – discussion on thereabout Russian money and its influence on the tories

Some chatter now that the UA have entered the outskirts of Kreminna, pushing up from the forests to the SW of the town.

Links please! 😀

Thrilled to see that once again that UK professional services and consulting organisations are enabled and emboldened to do the dirty work of those with the deepest pockets. How do these educated and informed people sleep? Ignorance is not a defence.

Seems like the Russians are not the only ones struggling with corruption!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/ukraine-deputy-minister-sacked-for-alleged-theft-of-400000

once again that UK professional services and consulting organisations are enabled and emboldened to do the dirty work of those with the deepest pockets

What’s worse is Government departments supporting them, which is using public money.

Seems like the Russians are not the only ones struggling with corruption!

The flip side is that those guilty of corruption in Ukraine (that make it into international news) are being forced out.

Not discounting corruption in Ukraine, it’s serious and arguably endemic. But if government officials find themselves out of a job I’m taking that as a good sign. Could do with some of that in the U.K.

Der #Leopard ist frei. Gut so!

Nächstes Mal dann hoffentlich schneller, mit weniger Flurschaden im Bündnis und klarer, selbstbewusster Botschaft.

Das wäre die #Führung, die ich mir wünsche. 🇩🇪 als starke Kraft im Verbund mit 🇺🇦 und den Partner:innen. https://t.co/u4jZnezBRp

— Sabine Fischer (@SabFis3) January 24, 2023

Looking out for anything that firms this up.

Sorry Kimbers, I did miss your Wagner related post here… saw that story this morning elsewhere, and posted it on the Sunak thread. Still can’t quite believe it.

I strongly advise everyone to follow his link, and read it all. Freedom of speech… but “we” (the UK Treasury under Sunak) grant an exemption to sanctions to a Wagner Group top honcho to use our legal system to go after and try to silence a journalist for pointing out who and what he is. Jebus.

Looking out for anything that firms this up

Fantastic! Germany and the US have both declined to comment, which I see as a positive 🙂
14 A6 model from Germany, 100 from elsewhere, 14 Challenger 2 and the possibility of Abrams too (from the same source)
EDIT and I think from current stocks too

My inability to differentiate between real and parody continues…

The Russian Foreign Minister #Lavrov is in Africa, not to see 🐆, but to bluntly claim that #Ukraine’s partners “want to destroy everything Russian”. Here is a 🧵 with all of his “evidence”: 1/3

— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) January 24, 2023

That is the actual German foreign office trolling the Russian Foreign Minister isnt it?

Looking out for anything that firms this up.

Süddeutsche…. That a proper paper and a good source.

That is the actual German foreign office trolling the Russian Foreign Minister isnt it?

I understand why you might be struggling, but almost unbelievably even the Germans can do humour.

Scholz has been under a lot of fire from politicians and the press about his indecision. Looks like it got through.

Slava Ukraini

Tanks on route or at least the paper work is on its way.
Only a wisper on the BBC news site but it’s a wisper.
Wonder what deals been done with Poland as im sure they where about to send them without Germanys blessings.

Story below ⬇️
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is likely to announce his approval to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an address in German parliament on Wednesday.

(typo in the initial tweet, should of course read "will announce")https://t.co/Oo5JP7lZL0

— Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) January 24, 2023

Ukraine's future tank fleet. pic.twitter.com/PJxswZmwL7

— I bless the rains down in AFRICOM (@SecretNofun) January 24, 2023

Perhaps the dam will now break on military aid?

Interesting that the Netherlands are being so vociferous – maybe the Malaysian airliner full of heir citizens shot down by the Russians?

The US is to send 50. M1 Abrams tanks. Wow!

Scholz has been under a lot of fire from politicians and the press about his indecision.

I don’t buy the “indecision” spin from the media and some politicians… ensuring this is a multi-national move is an essential aim for Germany, who don’t want it to be a “German tanks enter conflict with Russia” story due to, well, history… it can’t even be about Germany and geographically close countries (with German built tanks)… it’s needs to be a wider move… and it looks like that could be about to happen.

🤞🏻

Let’s hope we get something firm this week. If it’s today, we’ll have to wait for the USA working day.

Some credit probably due to the UK government for announcing tanks early and perhaps pushing the international response by doing so (it might have been even better to be part of a wider announcement, we’ll never be quite sure).

Interesting that the Netherlands are being so vociferous – maybe the Malaysian airliner full of heir citizens shot down by the Russians?

Not only theirs- bit close to home for me that one

We might need a quiet word with our Dutch friends….

We the Dutch were not very responsible with our Leopard tanks but we know Ukraine will be.#FreeTheLeopards pic.twitter.com/tW9lynzfCy

— Florïs. 'smɛrt vɔrɔ'hɑm (@r_evolutie) January 24, 2023

The US is to send 50. M1 Abrams tanks. Wow!

But do the Ukranian’s have the 200 crew, 400 mechanics, 500 drivers, stores, trucks, space to repair etc these things?

I am still wondering if some of this is a political ‘keep the pressure on Poo-tin’ move so that he knows the Ukranian’s are not being abandoned.

It also means the Russian commanders will have to be very careful about where and how they operate armour come the spring offensives – it ‘steers’ the Russian tactics some more into a place where Ukraine has more insight into what they are doing and where they are operating maybe? Might it tempt a couple more Russian airforce attacks which can be taken out etc etc.

All they have to do his make sure a few of the Western weapons are seen to be in the theatre of war,

Swiss have just voted to allow re-export of their arms to ukraine – this includes scarce ammunition for the Gepard Anti Ac systems. Very good news.

USA announcement now. It’s official.