Is that them withdrawing on some fronts to shorter defensive lines?

finephilly
Free Member
Yea, not buying the moral argument for helping out. The UK financial sector has been helping out Russian gangsta’s for years.
Also, if you think there’s a cost of living crisis now, wait until Zelensky throws a tantrum and NATO pump the country full of tanks and aircraft – that’s what it’ll take to push the Russians out.

I think there is a moral argument, more so if you consider the UK complicit in helping the Russian elite but in addition it is in our own interests to aid Ukraine. If more of that was done back in 2014 I doubt we would be discussing a war in Ukraine right now.

The cost of living crisis is due to many things, none of which are remotely Ukraine’s fault. Indeed we likely paid more out for unusable PPE from Tory “mates” than we have given in aid to Ukraine but that’s not relevant to the help we should be giving Ukraine either.

As for singling out Zelensky as somehow being the protagonist and throwing a tantrum, you do mean Putin really don’t you? Don’t you?

There’s a moral argument for sure. Lots of UK tory MP’s with twitchy sphincters at the moment.

It would be a shame if they committed suicide.

Not withstanding the usual whataboutery and false equivalences, the moral argument for supporting Ukraine is pretty watertight IMHO, it’s a rare example where the morally right thing to do is also good politics.

Mike Martin, whose analysis of the war has been pretty solid so far, has suggested that Tokmak is likely to be where it all kicks off again.

Looking at the map you can see his logic; the railway line that runs from Crimea, through Melitopol and then Eastwards to Russia takes a deviation Northwards to run straight through Tokmak, bringing much closer to the front lines. Based on that alone, Tokmak is the obvious easiest place to push towards if the Ukrainians are trying to get the railway within HIMARS range.

With the Kerch strait bridge still far from repaired this railway line is the key supply route for Crimea and the Russian forces in the Kherson oblast. If Russia wants to hold on down there through this winter they really want to keep it open.

However, the sheer obviousness of this and the fact that the Ukrainians have repeatedly proven the be highly adept at feints and other such misdirection means that any move on Tokmak could also be designed to draw troops away from a much bigger move elsewhere, just as they did in Kherson/Kharkiv in early Sept.

Apologies for the double-post but this just popped up in my feed and I feel it’s worth posting, an hour long interview with a British volunteer in Ukraine’s Foreign legion. First part of 2 apparently.

Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks

Meaning they have no interest in negotiation. Which I reckon probably suits Ukraine too.

Meaning they have no interest in negotiation. Which I reckon probably suits Ukraine too

Yep, it’s nice to see that they something they can agree on!

Meaning they have no interest in negotiation.

I think their reasoning is that they can get the U.S. and E.U. to pressure Ukraine to make concessions. However, I think the Russian foreign ministry don’t really understand the political situation in the West as well as they think they do. Diplomats and analysts who submitted reports that contradicted the official policy line were sidelined, so Putin has just been hearing what he wanted to hear – the West is weak and will capitulate in the face of aggressive Russian policy.

Diplomats and analysts who submitted reports that contradicted the official policy line were sidelined, so Putin has just been hearing what he wanted to hear – the West is weak and will capitulate in the face of aggressive Russian policy.

Yep, great at being a dictator but a really shitty poker player

Yea, not buying the moral argument for helping out

Considering we signed an agreement with them that in exchange for them giving up their nukes we’d act as backup for them in the event they had issues and blithely looked on while Russian troops ran amok in Crimea and Donbass I’d say we have rather an obligation to help now.

Considering we signed an agreement with them that in exchange for them giving up their nukes we’d act as backup for them in the event they had issues and blithely looked on while Russian troops ran amok in Crimea and Donbass I’d say we have rather an obligation to help now.

We had an obligation to help 8yrs ago but failed, and emboldened Russia, of course we should be helping now

Considering we signed an agreement with them that in exchange for them giving up their nukes we’d act as backup for them in the event they had issues

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  At the time it felt like Ukraine giving them up was making the world a safer place, but if they’d kept those nukes there would be no war now.

It seems like the Ukraine of 8 years ago was quite different to the Ukraine of 2022, or at least its army is. Part of why Russia thought it would just roll over Ukraine’s army in February this year was because they were pretty much able to do that 8 years ago. Their army has become a lot more effective in the intervening years, probably in part due to the training and aid the West did provide following those invasions.

Considering we signed an agreement…We had an obligation to help

Chief amongst the “we” is Russia who flagrantry ignored the Budapest Memorandum by crossing Ukraine’s borders.
The Budapest Memorandum included the UN Security Council providing a resolution for assistance, what it didn’t do was provide an obligation to assist.
It was a political rather a legal document that Russia has taken advantage of. Russia later threatened the use of nuclear weapons, a further breach

snip…but if they’d kept those nukes there would be no war now

Maybe. In 1990 Ukraine decided that they’d be better off without nuclear weapons and acceding to the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons made financial sense to them. Russia was their ally, they’d be given the financial means to get rid of a high-maintenance item and access to advanced nuclear power technology as a result (Chernobyl had gone badly wrong only four years before). The agreement served them well for 1/4 century

It’s reported by Reuters that President Macron has said “The West should consider how to address Russia’s need for security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-latest-news-russian-troops-pull-back-near-kherson-2022-12-01/
More importantly the world should consider how to address Ukraine’s need for security guarantees

In the same article “Sweden deported a Kurdish man with alleged ties to Turkish militants as Ankara keeps up pressure on the Nordic country to meet its demands in return for NATO membership”
Sweden is moving towards NATO membership https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-latest-news-russian-troops-pull-back-near-kherson-2022-12-01/

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599340703406231552

Ukraine has struck Engles Airbase, 600km inside Russia. It’s home to their bombers.

What with?

What with?

A quick glance at Twitter suggests all sorts of theories and mad claims, from on the ground special forces to new drone with 100km distance and big warhead…

Ukraine just announced today that they’re developing a kamikaze drone with a 1000KM range and a 75KG warhead.

Looks like initial tests have been….promising.

Big missile attack on UKr infrastructure today. Also some rumours of a breakthrough in the East.

Big missile attack on UKr infrastructure today.

They should try dropping one of those 1000km drones on top of Putin. He’s rapidly ascending the top ten in the charts of humanities bastards.

Also some rumours of a breakthrough in the East.

Breakthrough for who?

Ukraine – just a few lines dropped in here and there from usually reliable sources.

A breakthrough between Svatove and Kreminna I believe.

Big news if true, there’s another key railway that runs south into Severodonesk and that gets very close to the front lines around there, I imagine that’s how most of the supplies and reinforcements for the continued assault on Bakhmut are getting there.

All eyes were on Tokmak, Kherson and Bakhmut but East of the Svatore/Kreminna line is pretty open countryside and if the Ukrainians can break through with the same fast motorised units they used in Kharkiv they could wreak merry hell in Russia’s backlines again, assuming the mud situation allows this.

This is hilarious…

“Training, morale and leadership become critical,” says Ben Barry, a former British army tank commander who served in Bosnia with the Nato postwar stabilisation force during the chilly winter of 1995-96. “It is easy to become demoralised in the cold: imagine a badly run skiing holiday, without good organisation and equipment.

From this Guardian article. Yes – being on the front-line of a battlefield with temperatures expected to drop to -20degC is JUST like a slightly rubbish skiing holiday. FFS.

Sums up the army officer corps, TBH!

Russia are building an 85km defensive line N/S from Staribilsk, with trenches, Anti-Tank ditches & dragons teeth.

Ukraine just announced today that they’re developing a kamikaze drone with a 1000KM range and a 75KG warhead.

Warhead was a lighted cigarette, apparently.

Sums up the army officer corps, TBH!

Squaddies too. I remember during the Iraq invasion Geoff Hoon, defence minister at the time, said ‘Um Qasar is a city a bit like Southampton ‘
And a squaddie on the news said “Either he’s never been to Southampton or he’s never been Um Qasar. There’s no beer, no prostitutes, and there’s people shooting at you. It’s more like Portsmouth”

There’s no beer, no prostitutes, and there’s people shooting at you. It’s more like Portsmouth”

Even though you could see the punchline coming it’s still funny 🙂

There’s an article on the bbc news showing Putin driving over the Crimea bridge, in a Mercedes. W@%#er

more Ukraine drone activity?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/drone-attack-hits-oil-storage-tank-airfield-russia-kursk

The cost of living crisis is due to many things, none of which are remotely Ukraine’s fault.

Yes, but the bulk of the contributing factors come from the sanctions on Russia. Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.

I wonder how long will the German industry maintain themselves because their energy reserve is depleting fast, while UK is still ahead of many of them the last time I did a quick information search. Can’t be arse to find more information now because it is so obvious, it is a waste of time to continue “searching” for alternative factors.

As far as I know, a portion or high portion (in future) of our income will go to paying the bonuses for the energy shareholders as they are all sitting pretty and warm while we languish in cold. Our only hope is for a warm winter.

I say maintain the sanctions to see how many govts will be in trouble.

Sanctions arent going anywhere and cheap Russian energy isnt going back to what it was, deal with it, western energy supply chains certainly are.

Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia

That’s not a fact though (assuming you’re trying to say the sanctions are hurting the West more than Russia?). Sanctions are having a significant impact on Russia’s ability to wage war on Ukraine, just that in itself is enough to warrant their continued use – despite it contributing to the cost of living issues in the West.

Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.

Russia is far worse off than we are, and it’s going to get worse still for them.

Because of sanctions Russia can’t build enough tanks, precision guided munitions and many other things. This is because they contain western components or are built with western machine tools. Sanctions are directly saving lives.

Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.

No, we knew sanctions would harm the rest of the world. However Russia is harmed more, and for longer.