What’s the long way round?

The Med fleet navigate via the N. Atlantic to St Petersburg and Vladivostock. Refits, resupply of Syrian garrison and annual navy days

Ah, I thought you meant a long way round into the Black Sea.

It’s costing an utter fortune, for what benefit?

To demonstrate to one UN member state that it cannot invade another UN member state with impunity. Something which ought to be blindingly obvious and pretty much Rule #1.

To demonstrate to one UN member state that it cannot invade another UN member state with impunity. Something which ought to be blindingly obvious and pretty much Rule #1.

Yep, it’s this, basically.

+Another 1 to what Bloke said

There are no good options if you’re holding out for one, even if Russia packs up and leaves there’ll be a festering sore of resentment that will poison Russian politics and Rus-Uke relations for decades. But neither side is anywhere near a place where the politics have changed enough to force some sort of settlement. Ukraine is still fighting to exist, and arguably so is Putin.

UK didn’t move when Russia was where they are now in 2014 (Donbas).

Not even slightly accurate. One example: In Feb 2015 the UK launched Op. Orbital which had trained 22000 Ukrainian personnel by the time of the 2022 invasion with trainers from the UK army, navy and air force.
In 2022 it morphed into the UK-led multi-national Op. Interflex that between July and September had trained a further 5000 personnel with trainers from UK, Canada, New Zealand and Netherlands, with other countries following later
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Interflex
UK was also the first European country to send “lethal” aid.

Had you said, “The EU didn’t move…”
“I think that, for example, [of] the discussion on the Ukrainian Training mission [EU Training Mission in Ukraine]. We had been discussing about the Ukrainian Training Mission before the war for months. “Do we have to send a training mission to Ukraine?”, “No, come on, Ukraine, training mission, military in Ukraine…”. And then, boom, the war comes and people said: “we should have done it.” Yes, we should have done it.” Josep Borrell 10/10/2022

@kimbers I honestly expected that head banger to finish with One People, One Realm, One Leader!

Just been reading about Ukranian production of 152mm shells restarting, which is good news. The wewstern 155mm weapons are coming with shells supplied, but the soviet 152mm weapons they have a lot of, have no ready supply of ammunition.

The wewstern 155mm weapons are coming with shells supplied, but the soviet 152mm weapons they have a lot of, have no ready supply of ammunition.

Easy to whizz 1.5mm off the radius on a big lathe I suspect.

I’d maybe take out the shell and propellant first 🙂

The wewstern 155mm weapons are coming with shells supplied, but the soviet 152mm weapons they have a lot of, have no ready supply of ammunition.

I gather Russia has been supplying a fair bit to Ukraine.

Indeed!! Although many of the ones seen online, you wouldn’t want to put in a weapon you were anywhere near!!!

The talking heads and Kremlin propagandists are finally realising, on national TV that they are complicit in war crimes and are going to be tried at the Hague.  Good.

The Russian confidence of winning has deteriorated that much that the dominating thought is increasingly what will happen that they lose and they do this live in TV. I had to chuckle several times when watching this. They are genuinely afraid and they should be. #Ukraine https://t.co/o4i9XLBDo1

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 29, 2022

I didn’t take it like they were scared though – it was more confrontational, calling out others that are concerned about being tried for war crimes and that Russia should just, as she said, ‘turn the world to ashes’.

There were saying those in high places were scared of the Hague and yes, berating them for it. But did also acknowledge I think that they, the ‘presenters’ were complicit. It was Solovyov (the muppet dressed like a Bond villain) who made the comment about turning the world to ashes. He always does that, on nearly every clip I’ve seen him in, ever since the start of the war. All he needs is a cat on his lap for the complete pound shop Blofeld effect.

tthew
Full Member

Easy to whizz 1.5mm off the radius on a big lathe I suspect.

Just get the dremel out. Or fit a -3mm spacer.

It was Solovyov (the muppet dressed like a Bond villain) who made the comment about turning the world to ashes.

Ahh okay, I just read the subtitles (in the office with the sound down) – my mistake.

It was Solovyov (the muppet dressed like a Bond villain) who made the comment about turning the world to ashes. He always does that, on nearly every clip I’ve seen him in, ever since the start of the war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Streicher

‘ It’s costing an utter fortune, for what benefit?’ Because it doesn’t benefit most of us to have an aggressive fascist country next to Europe.

I was in the supermarket today, and there were a couple of kids in front of me. They used Ukraininan passports as i.d. to but beer, and it occured to me that they aren’t refugees, but they’re here, Norway, getting trained to go back and fight. Very, very sobering, and I have a kid in army training now. I bought their beer for them.

Because it doesn’t benefit most of us to have an aggressive fascist country next to Europe.

Russia straddles Europe and Asia. The border is the Ural mountains and the Ural river.
Moscow is in Europe.

Is Russia in Europe or Asia

Some frontline photos from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pictures-inside-battle-ukraine-2022-02-28/ (the date in the link seems at odds with the content)
Ignore the tech and they could be be taken during the last century, terrible

Really good report on the the earlier stages of the war from RUSI, February to July 2022. It’s a long read but has lots of interesting facts e.g. the assault on Kiev being stopped mainly by massed artillery rather than anti tank missiles, the very low lifetime of drones in combat and the amount of preparation that Ukraine had made since 2014.

It also points out that whilst Russia’s capabilities were overestimated before February, we shouldn’t write them off – they have adapted and given the right leadership can be effective. Hopefully, Putin will continue to meddle and set unrealistic objectives so that won’t come to pass.

Ignore the tech and they could be be taken during the last century, terrible

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/27/filthy-troops-fight-freezing-mud-ww1-like-horror-bakhmuts/

I know the World Cup is here to distract the plebs but reporting has gone very quiet recently

Are both sides preparing for a winter offensive?

More likely just consolidating and trying to ensure they survive the winter.

From that Telegraph report posted above (interesting read, thanks, and echoed by a report over on CNN I read earlier. Grim stuff.)

Left is WW1, right is Ukraine. Human kind is a bit messed up isn’t it?

I would imagine Ukraine will attempt to continue to degrade Russian supply lines to make life in those trenches ever more miserable through the Winter but I would be surprised if they didn’t seek to take more military advantage during the Winter. I think Russian forces in the South West (the ones who evacuated Kherson) are in a precarious position.

Maps and updates here… https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
The Russians need to capture Bakhmut because it’s a sizeable town and they are short of anything to show their advance, having retreated from pretty much everywhere else
It also puts a couple of other towns within artillery range. It’s all for the home crowd rather than making military sense

The talking heads and Kremlin propagandists are finally realising, on national TV that they are complicit in war crimes and are going to be tried at the Hague. Good.

I wouldn’t think we’ll ever see that happening.

I agree it’s unlikely, but not impossible.  I live in hope.

The Russians need to capture Bakhmut because it’s a sizeable town

It’s also protecting two of Ukraine’s major command and control hubs in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, if Russia can push through Bakhmut and take those they can justifiably claim to hold all of Donetsk oblast, which with be a huge boost for Russia domestic support for the war. Hence why Russia, and the Wagner group in particular, are throwing so many unfortunate young men at it.

That’s a huge ‘If’ of course, the Ukrainians are fully aware of this plan and have used the time the gallant defense of Bakhmut has bought to greatly reinforce both Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

This is also pinning a huge number of Russia troops in place, which opens the possibility of a fresh Ukrainian offensive elsewhere, Ukraine has received large amounts of winter gear from the likes of Canada and Finland and there are strong indicators that the moment the group freezes hard enough to allow mass vehicle movement that we will see…. something.

Hence why Russia, and the Wagner group in particular, are throwing so many unfortunate young men at it.

“Over the top” so to speak.

Didn’t work for Britain in WW1, and unlikely to work for Russia today.

Yup, there’s a huge defenders’ advantage at play, hence why, even though Ukrainian casualties are terrible the Russian ones are likely to be far, far worse, especially as anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that many of these attacks are being lead by Wagner’s new penal units, who are being used as little more than cannon fodder.

Even if that’s just hearsay or propaganda the Bakhmut meat grinder is still likely to go down as one of the grimmest battlefields of the 21st century.

Ukrainian casualties in the defence of Bakhmut are huge too, it’s an apocalyptic meat grinder.  At least they have internal supply lines, well prepared defensive positions, decent food, clothing, medical care, leadership and the opportunity to rotate out of the front line for a rest occasionally.  They are also crystal clear about what they are fighting for.  None of these factors seem to apply to the RF.  It’s going to be a tough winter for all the combatants, but worse for the Russians I think.

Edit: Was typing as @hatter posted, hence making some of the same points.

So far 300,000 mobilised troops have bought them nothing. Thousands of high quality troops have been relocated from Kherson to the Bakmut area and have gained them a negligible advance so far. As long as the west holds firm in its support, this is only going one way. In the long run Russia will benefit from losing.

The Beeb reporting that Russia is using X-55 nuclear missiles in Ukraine but with this warheads removed.

Allegedly to deplete Ukrainian air defences and to cause kinetic damage on impact.

They really are pushed for munitions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63826082

Yea, not buying the moral argument for helping out. The UK financial sector has been helping out Russian gangsta’s for years.
Also, if you think there’s a cost of living crisis now, wait until Zelensky throws a tantrum and NATO pump the country full of tanks and aircraft – that’s what it’ll take to push the Russians out.

The guardian on the rolling coverage seemed to suggest that the Russians are withdrawing from parts of Zaporizhzhia and southern Kherson. Is this just positive spin, or is another withdrawal?

Well Mike Martin is tweeting again. No smoke without fire and all that.

Here we go. Get ready for a tweet-a-thon https://t.co/4mxfONXIAl

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) December 1, 2022

Telegraph saying the same thing too. Russians have apparently pulled out of Oleshky across the river from Kherson. Perhaps they know that the rest of Kherson is toast. Whilst they can still supply the region, it isn’t much easier that supplying the right bank. And their soldiers are crap. Could be preparing to fall back into n their new defensive positions protecting Crimea..