The nuclear threat is real.

However, as others have pointed out, you cannot allow a murderous dictator to hold the World to ransom.

The Russian armed forces have proved to wholly inadequate.

The West must stand up to Putin, if we let him win by nuclear sabre rattling then where will it stop?

The West must stand up to Putin, if we let him win by nuclear sabre rattling then where will it stop?

Exactly. Turns out we can rattle back

I’m not completely blasé about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons but I do think he’s more likely to use chemical or biological ones.

I also rely on the fact that there are people with a lot more insight into and control over the current situation than me. And they’re unlikely to refer to the chat section of a British mountain bike forum for guidance on how to proceed.

You never know who is on STW!!

Then we really are doomed.

which will have a conventional ending with one side as the victor

I don’t think anyone thinks that. This isn’t likely to “end” in our lifetimes now. Ukraine might be able to push Russia back to its borders, but it, and many other countries, will be in a state of readiness for a return to warfare for decades now. It is going to be a drain on all those countries, and other countries, including the UK, for a long long time. Even if there is a peace treaty, no one trusts Russia to stick to it. The current fighting can be ended in what you might describe as a “conventional” way, with paper agreements on borders (old or new) and military deployment (withdrawal by either/both sides and new border forces), but that isn’t the end of this… we are stuck with a weak and unstable Russia who could strike out at any neighbour at any time. And, yes, a nuclear threat is real, but that doesn’t end with a peace treaty either. It remains while Russia is in the state it is. It will outlast any ground war in Ukraine. Russia remain a threat no matter what the Ukrainians or any other country does next. They would be a threat if allowed to take all of Ukraine. They will be threat if pushed back to 2014 borders. They’d be a threat if Ukraine was carved in two with a new border and a much small country. The threat from Russia isn’t going to be ended any time soon. It is the new reality we live with. And that is all Putin’s choice.

There’s quite a difference between tactical nukes and ICBMs

Some of the American stuff used recently in middle East/ Afghanistan was bigger than the tactical ones

Use of tactical nukes would be terrible but not even necessarily turn the tide for Russia, not provoke a nuclear response

Even if there is a peace treaty, no one trusts Russia to stick to it.

I’d posted this before, but it gives a fair insight into how Poland views the long term..

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/08/30/poland-eyes-s-korean-rocket-launchers-amid-himars-talks-with-the-us/

The negotiations run in parallel with the country’s talks with the United States over a potential purchase of about 500 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.

I’m not completely blasé about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons but I do think he’s more likely to use chemical or biological ones.

Possibly chemical although on a modern battlefield the usefulness is limited. Even targeting civilians they arent overly effective vs the same quantity of explosives. Possibly some use as area deterrent but questionable if worth it.
Biological also has deployment issues unless you chose something really rapid spreading and then you need to keep it away from your own side and also from neutral countries.
Plus I think he would need to look at his troops and question the sanity of trusting them with being able to use them effectively.

Maybe because I don’t think people (not just on here BTW, but everywhere) really appreciate the danger of the nuclear aspect of this.

Oh i do, i just don’t bang on about it ad infinitum
It’s out of my control. As others have said there are people who do know a lot more about this who are handling it.
I know someone who ‘wargames’ for a living [wink wink] – I feel very happy that they are one of the people who plays out lots of scenarios and then tells people in power how to play their own games…

The stakes are too high to pursue a conventional all-out victory

At the current rate that the Ukrainian counter offensive is proceeding, I’ll give it a few weeks before Russia’s military in Ukraine are conventionally defeated. Do you think Putin will start to throw nukes around before or after that happens?

This isn’t likely to “end” in our lifetimes now.

Isn’t this just another episode of the epic saga that is simply “Europe” since the reboot in 1914?

And they’re unlikely to refer to the chat section of a British mountain bike forum for guidance on how to proceed.

What tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?

When the war is ‘over’ there’s a significant chance there won’t be a NATO or EU to join, let alone anything left of the Ukraine.

“Always look on the bright side of life…”

I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon. The way you’ve fixated on it at the moment does make me think you aren’t doing your wellbeing any good.

I grew up, pretty much equidistant from Lakenheath, Marham, and Mildenhall.

Even as children we knew what that would mean. Maybe not the full emotional response youd have as an adult. Probably a good thing i wasnt aware of Able Archer at the time.

I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon.

Same here. Not only had the fun of drills at home and at school (pointless, huh) but my family was volunteered to play civvies in RAF drills for a nuclear attack. Couldn’t have had the threat drilled into me more. And hopes of disarmament have gone backwards in the last 8 or so years, accelerating like crazy in the last 8 months. I was still fully behind the campaign for UK unilateral nuclear disarmament at the start of this year. I’m at least wavering on that now. The work the UK & USA did getting nuclear weapons out of Ukraine looked like a clear disarmament success story to me less than a year ago. Now…? Really not sure.

A prearranged surrender of a Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, as well as several Russian soldiers, to Ukrainian forces in Kherson Oblast.🇺🇦https://t.co/hB0BDNOoc3

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) October 5, 2022

Cummings is right.

This is the argument of a teenager.

In Cuban missile crisis JFK did NOT think like this.

He was, rightly, afraid – so was Krushchev.

Fear of total global nuclear war is not 'surrender', is not 'giving in', it's *the foundation of sane policy* – cf. Eisenhower https://t.co/jCxZDmMgBV

— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) October 4, 2022

Hmm does Cummings have any questionable links to Russia and Russian money…?

Just watched that vid up there. Those ukr troops looked proper professional. No raw conscripts there

That sentiment falls down when one side keeps casually threatening it.

We’ve moved on a bit from JFK/Krushchev/Eisenhower

That doesn’t stop him being right about this though

What tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?

Double Fighter III

Smart Sam

I’d posted this before, but it gives a fair insight into how Poland views the long term..

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/08/30/poland-eyes-s-korean-rocket-launchers-amid-himars-talks-with-the-us/

Poland buying FIVE HUNDRED HIMARS ?? Good grief!! And look at what Ukraine did with a dozen!!

With recently captured #Russian POWs the same complaint has been recorded: “I am hungry!”#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #NAFOfellas #nafo pic.twitter.com/M4fK0FovuR

— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) October 4, 2022

I know there were a few comments earlier about Russian POWs. I came across this on twitter, a poor sod blindfolded with a tourniquet on his leg being fed and the comment says hunger is common among the POWs

Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?

Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?

Think its gotta be something like that, not even sure US has that many.

If they are ordering 500 launchers then, wow.

Cummings is right.

It must make for a pretty gloomy feeling when, after trawling the internet to find something to back up your argument, Dominic Cummings is the best you can come up with

I know there were a few comments earlier about Russian POWs. I came across this on twitter, a poor sod blindfolded with a tourniquet on his leg being fed and the comment says hunger is common among the POWs

I did read today that the new conscripts are basically being mugged by the current lot when they arrive for their food and stuff so its fairly obvious the poor sods are just been thrown to the lions. Presumably Putin just thinks they’re not going to live long enough to need to worry about stuff like food and shelter.

It will all end in tears.

Personally, I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes. I don’t mean full scale nuke yet, that’s reserve for doom’s day to massively reduce human population, but just sample of the potential destruction to see if both sides will come to their senses. Just nuke out a long “border” to create a “wall” that no human can have habitation. The result will be a zone that nobody can cross without being cooked alive inside out. Perhaps there will be peace after that. Perhaps.

It must make for a pretty gloomy feeling when, after trawling the internet to find something to back up your argument, Dominic Cummings is the best you can come up with

Odd choice I thought, there are definitely some better choices out the who are better able to articulate that argument. That arent also smeared in shit.

And dear god, the rest if his Twitter feed is a bitter resentful place.

When is the Ignore Member function going to arrive??

Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?

I think you are probably right, the article is in a few places and is probably a translation fail from its source.

I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes.

Only one side has nukes, unless you’re suggesting Nato starts chucking them at the Russians?

I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon. The way you’ve fixated on it at the moment does make me think you aren’t doing your wellbeing any good.

The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds. 😳

Kind of like at the start of the Gulf War(s) where the papers were gleefully describing the weapons pouring into Kuwait and the destructive power.

It will all end in tears.

Personally, I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes. I don’t mean full scale nuke yet, that’s reserve for doom’s day to massively reduce human population, but just sample of the potential destruction to see if both sides will come to their senses. Just nuke out a long “border” to create a “wall” that no human can have habitation. The result will be a zone that nobody can cross without being cooked alive inside out. Perhaps there will be peace after that. Perhaps.

Jesus wept…

Or was that post just to stir attention because you’re bored?

The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds

The doomsaying creates clicks, doubled down on by the ghouls who have a weird obsession with war so it gets perpetuated ad infinitum.

The balloon knots have no idea how fortunate they are to have not seen it up close, although they could do with that does of reality to take them down a peg or two.

Only one side has nukes, unless you’re suggesting Nato starts chucking them at the Russians?

Does not matter who use it first so long as a “wall of radiation” is created that will be good enough.

It is irrelevant if Russia is the only one using it as I doubt the sneaky “police of the world” will sit there to let Russia gets the glory, after all they are they one that dropped Fat Man and Little Boy on Japan to stop the war …

To create a no man’s land so “no more” fighting over a peace of land.

Let’s see if my “prediction” will come through.

Your dried frog pills have run out again

Dominic Cummings? Ha ha ha!