Looks like Lyman is going to be in Ukrainian hands soon, at no small cost to Ukraine

Wagner prisoners and newly drafted soldier captured/ surrendering will be a headache for Ukraine to feed & detain

The article in DT78 suggests a plausible reason, create a sense of risk/scarcity in the market and push prices up.

In addition to the above; in 2021 Russia was blamed for a cyber-attack on the US Colonial Pipeline and earlier this year on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp regional oil hub.
Russia can’t effectively demonstrate a cyber-attack on unused pipelines and their capability might not work on brand-new infrastructure and control systems.
In a further hint of desperation they launch attacks in Danish waters on their own pipelines which upsets market predictions of NS re-opening in 2023, upsets the opening of the Baltic Pipe Project in October and increases the economic shock in Europe. This lays the ground for pro-Russia leaders in Italy to start demanding a ceasefire and deals

tthew
Full Member
He blows up the currently unused pipeline to prove he has the capacity to do the same to the Sweden/Poland one that came on stream today and reduces central Europe’s dependency on Russia.

That has to be the only plausible explanation I think.

It’s very Putin, isn’t it?

Remind me who is winning again?

What is it “winning” looks like to you?

Genuine question.

To me this doesn’t look like a scenario where anybody really wins, more who loses the least. And even then…

If the pipeline is deep enough it will be a pancake now it might have compressed and be completely squishy down there.
NATO aren’t that daft to do this they have the upper hand both with firepower and morales.
I can see Putin taking out the fiber cables though

Given that Putin doesn’t give a sh1t about his people, I’d say they are losing the least. They have the gas, they have huge reserves of money and we have an economy on brink along with most others in the west. His war on the west is doing pretty much what he wants it to be doing.

When one dictator tries to cheer up his fellow dictator…utterly surreal.

Are you saying Russia has more cash than the EU / west?

I hate to break it to you.
Putin might be the worlds richest man off the books but that makes no difference if you rule over an empire of dirt.

The “Inside Russia” YouTuber has, well, left Russia.

For anyone that watched any of his stuff

I’ve no military training.
However I’m fairly confident the instructor shouldn’t stand there or grab that…
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574795540767850499?t=iiZ6XFm0P7ag444tL_Zj9Q&s=19

Got to love a bit of quo

Question is what happens next after Putin has upended his country by mobilising

And he still keeps losing

Ukrainian MoD says a lot of newly mobilised Russians are calling Ukrainian official structures in order to surrender immediately.

— Fuat (@lilygrutcher) September 27, 2022

NATO aren’t that daft to do this they have the upper hand both with firepower and morales.

In early February President Biden promised to “end” NS2 (specifically) as a threat to prevent the invasion by Russia. After that promise NS2 wasn’t certificated and hasn’t pumped gas and it simply serves no purpose for the US or its allies to damage the pipelines.
The damage in Danish waters is significant and tells Europe that Russia can damage the Baltic Pipe Project. Those Russian subs that were parked in Russian waters after leaving Crimea will now be targetted if they re-enter Ukrainian waters

The minions need to step up and remove him after his birthday party where no one drinks the tea or eats the cake

Timba
I think Putin did it in all honesty

popping NS2 wasn’t about popping NS2 which wasn’t connected anyway

It was about showing off the capability to damage undersea infrastructure under our noses

Think of all the other pipelines running under sea …. gas….. telecoms and data connections to the USA

Putin wants us to know he can damage them whenever he feels like it

Think of all the other pipelines running under sea …. gas….. telecoms and data connections to the USA

And how disruptive it will be for months to repair things.

☹️

I must admit I really think we need to think beyond events in Ukraine. Putin is self-evidently waging war against the West as a whole. Given the USSR failed primarily because of its economic weakness it isn’t surprising that Putin will be trying the same trick in reverse. You have to hope that Russia’s economy will crack first. I just wish we had a vaguely competent government which wasn’t doing Putin’s job for him.

The UA have crossed the river to the East of Lyman and headed towards Kreminna.

This means Lyman is operationally encircles as the only remaining road in/out for the RF is under UA guns.

With the loss of Lyman (and god knows how many troops and bits of kit, they’ve been flooding the area) the UA are now poised to drive either NE into Luhansk or directly East to Severodonetsk.

Putin is in real trouble as a well trained, well equipped and well motivated army trounces an ill equipped, poorly (if at all) trained and extremely demotivated army

wzzzz
Free Member

popping NS2 wasn’t about popping NS2 which wasn’t connected anyway

It was about showing off the capability to damage undersea infrastructure under our noses

Was that in doubt? I mean, it didn’t used to be, is it possible that Russia’s reputation is now so weak that they have to re-establish things like this?

Was that in doubt? I mean, it didn’t used to be, is it possible that Russia’s reputation is now so weak that they have to re-establish things like this?

They are demonstrating their willingness to do it.

So, “referendum” votes have been counted. Anyone want to take a stab at the results? ☹️

Russia have formally declared a win in the “referendums”…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63052207

99.23% in favour…. Yeah… right.

So, they will become part of Russia in a matter of weeks… Even though parts of the territories are actually in UA hands.

If Putin is going to use nukes, we’re going to find out soon. I’m still calling BS on that one though.

99.23% in favour

What was the turnout 170%?

@pk13

Timba, I think Putin did it in all honesty

I don’t doubt you, honest 🙂 My post was meant to back your point up

I must admit I really think we need to think beyond events in Ukraine.

I’m not saying this because I’m some sort of Geopolitical boffin, but I’ve been there for a long time.

When Moscow describes the fall of the Soviet Union as a “genuine tragedy”, they meant for Moscow, not the former members. The Baltic states like Lithuania that Gorbachev sent the tanks into to prevent independence no doubt have a different perspective.

The source of that “genuine tragedy” statement being Putin back in 2005.

I love an internet…

If the pipeline is deep enough it will be a pancake now it might have compressed and be completely squishy down there.

To minimise the risk of pipe collapse during installation, buckle arrestors (pipe reinforcement) are installed at specific intervals in susceptible areas. The buckle arrestors are welded into the pipelines in those areas that are susceptible to propagation buckling, i.e., deeper sea areas.

The buckle arrestors are made of the same steel alloy as the line pipes and are equal in length to the line pipes. However, these pipes has a greater wall thickness, with machined thinner wall ends to match the adjoining line pipe.

Buckle arrestors are used along a 305 km stretch of the pipeline, and the spacing between them is 927m (equal to 76 line pipes).

Once its full of sea water its not collapsing, Shirley…

Personally, I could believe the US did it to kill any last bargaining option that Russia may have had with it. German winter gas reserves are high and I think the next day another line to Poland was opened. Ads – B have aircraft flying laps of Konigsberg so any movement would be spotted there. Biden is on record saying they have the means to do this, back in February. Its easy to pin it on Russia and get it to stick…. but this is just my way of joining the dots here and all sides closing the conversation about NS1 and 2.

We probably will never know beyond speculation and I’m thankful there are people managing the responses who are closer to the event and privy to info we don’t have…

Once its full of sea water its not collapsing, Shirley…

Hard to see the pipe would have been laid fully pressurised as well? Definitely a question, not a statement.

Tech and process fest is here:
https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html

Stage info on the r-h side.

Personally, I could believe the US did it to kill any last bargaining option that Russia may have had with it.

Nah. It was Greenpeace.

Earlier reports saying a 15% turnout in he referendum in one area, but that might have been before voting closed. In which case about 14% of the population agree to annexation.

I wonder how many of the voters are visiting Russian squaddies.

Think of all the other pipelines running under sea …. gas….. telecoms and data connections to the USA

Putin wants us to know he can damage them whenever he feels like it

Not sure I buy this (although granted there’s not really any alternative logical explanation I’ve seen either). NATO intelligence know full well the capabilities Russia has to damage/cut undersea pipelines and cables. A demonstration isn’t needed and even if it were, doing it on pipelines you might want operational in future is akin to someone punching themselves in the face on a night out to prove how hard they can hit someone as a warning.

Given the mess Russia has made of many ‘covert’ ops over the last decade even Putin would have thought there’s a 50% chance of Russian saboteurs either being detected or blowing themselves up which would have had the opposite effect (if his motivation was intimidation).

Destabilising the energy market even further is maybe more plausible but even with that I’d have thought the market would have factored in no Russian gas for at least 12 months anyway so any blip in reaction to it would be very short term.

I could believe the US did it

Its easy to pin it on Russia and get it to stick….

If it wasn’t Russia, they’d be apoplectic. Screaming from the rooftops that it was an act of war to damage their export infrastructure, a direct terrorist attack on their economy and a massive provocation/escalation.  They’d be demanding UN resolutions, threatening retaliatory strikes on western energy infrastructure and properly losing their shit.  I’ve seen none of that (specifically in relation to the pipeline attack), a few muted and unconvincing denials, probably accompanied by a ‘prove it’ smirk.

https://visitukraine.today/blog/928/how-not-to-join-the-russian-army-or-surrender-step-by-step-instructions-for-the-occupiers
Handy link for conscripts

We probably will never know beyond speculation

It was Russia. There’s absolutely no doubt about that. The pipelines were both closed and there is no chance of them reopening in the foreseeable future so they have no economic value to Russia. This is Russia sending a message that they will escalate and blow up energy infrastructure. However, they did it outside of NATO borders because they don’t know how NATO will actually respond if they attack a target within NATO borders. If it wasn’t Russia, they would be kicking up a huge fuss, but by not acknowledging it was them, they can throw wild accusations around that it was Ukraine/Poland/USA/etc. as a distraction from their warcriming in Ukraine.

If it wasn’t Russia, they’d be apoplectic.

The US has too much to lose in regional support for it to be worth the risk.

In my uneducated opinion.

This how a conspiracy theory begins: What happened can never ever be the bleedin’ obvious.

The US has too much to lose in regional support for it to be worth the risk.

In case it wasn’t crystal clear from my post you quoted, I am absolutely convinced it was Russia and believe it to be highly unlikely the US or anyone else was involved.  Just saying the very half hearted Russian denials underline that further.

It’s simple really, it caused a gas price spike that will hurt EU economies and benefit Russia selling to other nations. Little chance of it getting switched back on anyway, so why not.