I don’t blame them – it’s not their war – it’s the war of a nutcase. I think the culture there is so different to what we know it’s hard to blame the Russian people for who their leader is. From a political perspective they’ve effectively had dictatorships for a long term – enforced by military / fsb type arrangements from what I read.

Reminds me of some of the accounts of soldiers in Vietnam. Not saying it makes it alright but just that in brutal wars that **** people up, **** up people do **** up things.

The modern U.S. and NATO armies are built on lessons learned in Vietnam. NATO doctrine is to have professional soldiers who are well disciplined and do not follow a deliberate strategy of targeting civilians. Yes, you will have local breakdowns in discipline, and you will have civilians killed when they get trapped in combat zones, but the doctrine is to target enemy military targets, not to deliberately target civilians. In Ukraine and Syria, Russia has followed a deliberate strategy of targeting civilians purely as a terror weapon, with no military purpose. Big difference between the two approaches.

I doubt Russia will resort to nukes or chemical weapons as they’ll not win the war for Russia, would certainly lose all support Russia has from any allies and would probably result in Nato countries if not Nato itself actively getting involved

For me it depends on how much control Putin still has (or will have as they suffer more defeats due to UA counter-attacks). I can’t see Putin surviving losing the war so he doesn’t have a whole lot personally to lose by escalating – it’s just whether those around him let him.

Chemical/biological weapons seem much more likely to be used than nuclear, they are far more deniable and part of Putin’s playbook is implausible denials, he doesn’t care how absurd the denial is as long as it creates enough doubt to allow China and others to continue their support and to deter NATO from taking action.

If he used tactical nukes then it’s highly likely NATO would strike Russian military targets inside Ukraine and possibly declare a no fly zone, but they would probably hesitate if some previously unknown nerve agent was used and Russia denied any involvement, blaming it on a NATO false flag operation.

I’m intrigued about how employers are going to backfill all the jobs left behind by the latest conscripts. 300,000 is a lot of manpower, but talk of it being nearer 1,000,000 is insane. I guess a fair few are unemployed, and many others are in manual jobs? Maybe there’s a queue of people lining up to take them?

A lot of Russians don’t want to be drafted….

I think the speed of reaction to the mobilisation maybe reveals that Russians have a better idea of whats going on than we’ve given then credit for. Obviously Putin controls the media and we get the sense the population doesn’t know whats really going on, but I think people maybe don’t feel free to say what they know is going on.

Listening to accounts of young Russians leaving the country, queuing for 70 hours at the border with one bag – its quite a big thing walk away from your home, job, possessions, friends, family with just one bag. I’d wager those people have known whats been happening and where its heading and that bag has been packed for quite a while.

Don’t they have form for chemical weapons in Syria?

TLDR: Officially, no, it was the work of Syria and ISIL according to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)

snip…some previously unknown nerve agent was used and Russia denied any involvement, blaming it on a NATO false flag operation.

Mikhail Gorbachev and George Bush snr signed an agreement in 1990 to destroy CW stocks, stop production and support a global ban. In 1997 most countries signed an international agreement so that CW could only be used for protective research, e.g. suits, medication, etc
Russia has come unstuck a few times and was tasked to produce an independent report into who was responsible for one particularly unpleasant attack in Syria in 2013. The Russians told the UN that it was the work of Syrian rebels. Western intelligence suggested that Syrian rebels had never had CW and the report was shelved by the UN
Salisbury is another infamous example and the UK showed that the attack was the work of Russia rather than an individual Russian and thus was chemical warfare

Germany suggesting that there are issues on Nordstream 1 and 2 – and maybe deliberate…

BREAKING: A few hours after the gas leak on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Nord Stream 1 is also reporting massive problems. The pipelines may have been damaged by targeted attacks – Berliner Zeitung/Tagesspiegel https://t.co/IAGSs70XYL

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) September 26, 2022

I’m intrigued about how employers are going to backfill all the jobs left behind by the latest conscripts. 300,000 is a lot of manpower…

It’s just talk. The declaration has the “numbers to be drafted” paragraph redacted.
The only protected jobs are in the military-industrial sector and does whiff of desperation that you’d strip every other industry. It also puts Russia’s claim of 6000 RF soldiers killed in the Ukraine into context (the US estimates 20,000 killed)

Gerhard Schroeder must be crying in his beer 👍

Salisbury is another infamous example and the UK showed that the attack was the work of Russia rather than an individual Russian and thus was chemical warfare……

…… and continued to accept the political donations

A non-dramatic article here
https://www.voanews.com/a/denmark-reports-leak-in-gas-pipeline-in-baltic-sea-/6763758.html

.

Strange coincidence that there’s significant 3 leaks on sub-sea gas pipelines on the same day. And an overnight reduction from 110 to 7bar in Nordstream 2 over that distance of pipe must be a bloody huge leak.

Russia demonstrating it’s capacity for sabotage the day before the cross-baltic link to Poland is in operation? All very deniable I’m sure.

I thought it was switched off anyway?

I find myself feeling really sorry for those Russians conscripted. They are just normal people with normal lives now being shoved into the firing line

How would we have all acted if all of a sudden we had been drafted in to fight in Iraqi? Against a much more superior foe and on a very thin pretence of justification

I’d have said no way and found any way out of it I could.

I thought it was switched off anyway?

It was never switched on, Germany didn’t certificate it. Russia stuffed 300mn m cu in in preparation

Are the russians closing the boarder crossings to men of fighting age or are they letting possible conscripts to leave the country?

Now that all tnose with money and power have got their sons & friends out I expect they will close the borders. Animal farm my a@@e!!!

The Nordstream 2 issue around the island off Denmark…. it will be interesting to see if it has been purposely damaged by some sort of attack as opposed to a rupture or failure of the pipe due to manufacturing defects.

It goes south of the Danish island Bornholm and the submarines from Konigsberg have to go somewhere unless a surface ship has done some damage…

5 mile shipping exclusion zone as the gas is absorbed in the seawater and could cause bouyancy issues or ignite on the surface..

This photo, taken by a Danish F-16 near Bornholm, shows the disturbance in the water caused by one of the gas leaks in the Baltic Sea.

Image shared by the Danish Armed Forces pic.twitter.com/x1ZpWRVh8w

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) September 27, 2022

Press release for that here https://www.forsvaret.dk/en/news/2022/gas-leak-in-the-baltic-sea/

^ some interesting observations from Danes, Swedes and Germans about such large leaks, something unprecedented by natural causes, and in NS1 and NS2 almost simultaneously….

Do we think Pooters is now throwing the toys?

#UPDATE: According to the Swedish National Seismology Centre measurement stations in Sweden and Denmark had registered powerful subsea blasts in the areas of the Nord Stream gas leaks on Monday- SVT

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) September 27, 2022

A No Smoking sign needs placing nearby.

So even if the EU apologise and ask to buy more gas they can’t? What economic threat does putin have left?

I’m waiting for Surging Lavatory to state it was done by a Ukrainian Submarine..

What entirely was the point in blowing it up? If it’s not in use

I’m confused.

Because it will now not be able to be used. It’s a “fsck you” _if_ it was deliberate Russian sabotage.

I would have thought they could achieve more by cutting underwater cables and denying it. I’m sure I read an article about the Russians having that sort of capability

If the reported maps of the explosions are correct, someone took great care to detonate the underwater gas pipeline just outside NATO territorial waters

— David Frum (@davidfrum) September 27, 2022

In light of recent discoveries it’s hard to know whether it’s deliberate by the Russians or just shoddy engineering or lack of upkeep.

Russia have AUVs capable of it

http://www.hisutton.com/Large_AUVs_Poster.html

Meanwhile

Photo from the Russian-Georgian border

Few years ago social media users were mocking the Syrian refugees wondering why fighting age men are so heavily overrepresented among them

Well, now you can get why pic.twitter.com/IPNo4kcDbL

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) September 26, 2022

What entirely was the point in blowing it up? If it’s not in use

I’m confused.

Yep it doesn’t make sense. If Russia are responsible, it looks to me like they have taken one of their own pieces off the board for no gain. I would say that there is more to the story

I’ve just watched a video of a drafted young Russian in his barracks have his leg broken by his mate jumping on it, to avoid being sent to fight.

On a human level this mobilisation is just tragic.

What entirely was the point in blowing it up?

A false flag that they will blame on NATO? A practice for blowing up the new Norwegian pipeline (and others?)

But they have lost one of their bargaining points, even if EU push for a ceasefire, they won’t get the gas restored.

In light of recent discoveries it’s hard to know whether it’s deliberate by the Russians or just shoddy engineering or lack of upkeep.

Is it not managed by a German company and was installed by international group of companies?

It’s odd if they have done something, but perhaps it’s just hard man, I’m in control, desperation? So far Pootin has proved a master strategist…

I’ve just watched a video of a drafted young Russian in his barracks have his leg broken by his mate jumping on it, to avoid being sent to fight.

That is seriously grim.

Today the Ukrainians around have reported thier first POW’s from the mobilized conscripts, captured near Lyman.

Fog of War and all that but it looks like the Russian authorities scooped them up and shoved them straight into the front line, with predictable results.

Article on the telegraph about why would putin blow up his own pipelines. I’m none the wiser. Plenty of comments suggesting it was nato/us/uk

He blows up the currently unused pipeline to prove he has the capacity to do the same to the Sweden/Poland one that came on stream today and reduces central Europe’s dependency on Russia. I obviously wasn’t explicit enough about that this morning.

Holes and damage can be repaired. If it floods with seawater, that could be a much significant issue, depending on exactly what material it’s made from.

In a previous incarnation I studied seismic focal mechanisms with the Swedish defence research organisation. For me it was a good jolly to spend a year in Sweden. Turns out there was a point after all!!

seismic focal mechanisms

Guinness or Curry?

The article in DT78 suggests a plausible reason, create a sense of risk/scarcity in the market and push prices up. (Although I didn’t see any comments, was that on Twotter or FB and possibly mostly Bots?)

But gas prices have been dropping for the past four days. After the news of the suspected sabotage to the pipes, they rose by 12 per cent.

Particularly after forecasts like this https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia

Goldman said on Tuesday it expected European wholesale natural gas prices to fall from about €215 (£186) a megawatt hour to below €100 a MWh by the end of the first quarter of next year, assuming typical winter weather conditions. That is well below the €213 previously predicted.