The mobilisation is of reservists who have military experience

It’s supposed to be, but they seem to be conscripting people with no experience.

While there’s been no major thrusts fighting definitely ongoing
What’s noticeable is that Russia have apparently lost 3 bombers & 2 attack helicopters in the last few days, which seems to be an uptick in losses

But they are also using & losing the new drones Iran is supplying

The Ukrainian General Staff claims they destroyed a Su-25, two Su-30, a Su-34 (possibly in the above video), and 5 UAVs. Russian Telegram channels confirm it was a bad day for Russian aviation. 2/https://t.co/hsW3eUkCEchttps://t.co/rsQEvPyNDRhttps://t.co/W7u1ejEiT1 pic.twitter.com/HPwkmenjk2

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 24, 2022

Video reportedly showing a Russian Ka-52 helicopter being shot down by a Stinger MANPADS by Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade. https://t.co/0ITf6QUzHJ pic.twitter.com/WYXF5hEnM5

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 24, 2022

On September 23, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 9 aerial targets.
6⃣ "Shahed-136" drones
1⃣ "Mohajer-6" drone
1⃣ "Mi-8" helicopter
1⃣ "Su-25"

Video: destruction of the "Shahed-136" drone pic.twitter.com/MndjPAeBNC

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) September 24, 2022

#Ukraine: Further video has been released showing a very similar damaged jet, as well as wreckage- as claimed, this was a Su-34 strike aircraft shot down.

It is unclear if it is the same incident- but at least one Su-34/Su-30 aircraft appears to have been taken down today. https://t.co/kvVoFBXaYW pic.twitter.com/e8R9JCjPGG

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 24, 2022

#Ukrainian forces downed a #Russian Ka-52 in #Zaporizhzhia Oblast, #Ukraine

The Russian #Ka52 is supposed to have a missile alert warning system (MAWS) complex called President-S. It appears this Ka-52 either did not have it installed, or the unit failedpic.twitter.com/s4pnv1BESu

— Diplomacy140 (@Diplomacy140) September 23, 2022

Apparently the German supplied Gepards have been very busy

And video reportedly of a Russian Su-30 fighter (presumably Su-30SM) shot down with a Stinger MANPADS in Kharkiv Oblast. https://t.co/Hp82duy5at pic.twitter.com/ktNpp1tSEf

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 24, 2022

The mobilisation is of reservists who have military experience

It’s supposed to be, but they seem to be conscripting people with no experience.

Theory is that the recruiters have quotas to meet so they just round up anyone they can to meet quota. The non-eligible ones will be sent back (if they’re lucky), but that lets the recruiters pass the quota problem on to somebody else.

The mobilisation is of reservists who have military experience

That’s what President Putin announced, “I repeat, we are talking only about partial mobilization. That is, only those citizens who are in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the armed forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription.” (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-21-22/h_7666f140f0a451c554d0f2011058de69)

It’s supposed to be, but they seem to be conscripting people with no experience

Political analyst Ekaterina Shulman writes, “According to such a text, anyone can be called up except for employees of the military-industrial complex who have a delay for the period of work,”

Yet again, the words and deeds are very different. The numbers-to-be-conscripted paragraph in the decree is redacted, so it could be 300,000 and it might not be

above all, those who served in the armed forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription.

Is drinking vodka for breakfast a military speciality?

“Zip-up his pants, would ya?”

The incoming Russian 🇷🇺 conscripts are quite the mess. pic.twitter.com/TJN1x45JRp

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) September 24, 2022

article on the BBC about the UK prisoner released and their treatment. can’t imagine how awful that must have been.

maybe we aren’t seeing as many Russians surrender because they are expecting to be treated the same by the Ukrainians

reports of arrests from protests and men trying to flee the draft seem to be overegged when you think of the numbers of people in russia.

looks like most are accepting it and preparing themselves for the front line. possibly by drinking truck loads of vodka, tbh if I was about to sent to a front line with a high chance of being blown up by the enemy or shot by my own side I think I’d have a drink or seven

Everything is according to the plan? The Russian collaborators in occupied #Kherson had to admit at the press conference that only 15% of #Ukraine's #Kherson province participated today in their fake referendum that was designed by Russia to annex the province. pic.twitter.com/xlWPILFeel

— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) September 25, 2022

15% turnout

15% turnout

I am surprised. I thought it would be higher than that.
I guess the short notice meant they couldnt stuff the envelopes in advance.

most pro Ukrainians will either have fled, are fighting or have been intimidated/relocated/ disappeared.

even if the turnout was massively higher its such a sham its entirely pointless

Seen a few reports today suggesting the Ukrainians are very close to taking Lyman and that if they do so it could precipitate another Ukr breakout.

This would explain why so many Russian air assets were being put in harms way in that area yesterday as they tried to prevent this.

Time will tell but losing that many non-replaceable aircraft in one day does suggest desperate measures.

Luckily he was no match for the super intellect of Jacob Rees Mogg, who realised that the perfect way to reduce our dependence on gas is to …. Licence more gas drilling and kill off renewables.

Why would he do that? Oh…

Fracking Minister Funded by Fossil Fuel Investor

Beyond my flippant comment about JRM, the article is worth a read as regards Crispin Odey and the money he made from Russian fossil fuel interests.

I think this is an actual Prime Minister using NAFO to troll… sumply by getting a Fella profile pic

https://twitter.com/kajakallas?t=Uhp-vFdBObsgMolY3Mca-w&s=09

Due to popular demand and promises of donations to #Ukraine, my Fella is my new avatar for the day. #StandWithUkraine

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) September 25, 2022

dissonance
Full Member

I am surprised. I thought it would be higher than that.

I was expecting 100%, of whom 113% would vote to join russia

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan

“We have communicated directly, privately and at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the US and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS’s Face The Nation.

Seen a few reports today suggesting the Ukrainians are very close to taking Lyman

In fairness, reports of this ilk have been repeating for best part of two weeks now. A series of frontal assaults and/or flanking attacks seem to have been repelled. Given Lyman’s strategic importance as the site of a major railway junction, its access to important rail a key and road bridges over the Siverskyy Donets River and a key road in the other direction into Luhansk, it seems the Russians are pouring soldiers – and indeed air assets – into defending it.

It does however seem as if the UA has broken through North of the city and heading East has taken a swathe of territory which means Lyman is in real-time danger of being encircled. And if (when) that happens it will surely fall. At that point the UA will be able to use it as a staging post to either head north to engage RF forces in Luhansk via Svatove (a major logistics hub for the RA) or East, to attack RF forces in and around Severodonestk.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1574061574989529090

Mike has been pretty prescient so far on this conflict so if he thinks Ukraine are on the verge of pulling another blinder then I’m inclined to be optimistic.

Yup, lots of corrobatory stuff out there regarding this. Seems as if an armoured column broke through Russian lines North of Lyman a couple of days ago and motored East. Held up around Karpivka and Ridkodub originally, but seems that they have now secured them and carried on through to Nove.

Interestingly, it seems that the footage of various RF air assets going bump was related to this fight. They obviously knew the danger that this breakthrough represented and threw everything at it to try to throw them back.

Lyman now in real danger. Terrain heading south to Lyman is open farmland and the RF have no established defensive lines. RF in Lyman in real danger of being encircled and forced into a humiliating surrender (they’re hardly going to fight to the end). Or try to retreat on roads that the Ukrainian artillery will be zeroed in on. Lose/lose.

Interestingly the fall of Lyman puts the final, definitive nail in the coffin of any Russian aspirations to encircle and take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (which was plan C for the encirclement of  at least some Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, after it became apparent that the larger kettling strategies of plans A (the whole Donbas and a bit more) and B weren’t going to happen). So in effect Putin is facing the reality that not only will he never be able to take the Donbas, he won’t even be able to deliver on the vastly reduced goal of the vastly reduced goal of the original goal (after the Kiev plan had been kicked into touch). A bad day all round

The above would seem to be the up to date situation (though there are reports coming in that the UA have now moved South and taken Shandryholove, further pressuring Lyman).

Anyone else see some similarities (a massive, engorged similarity some might say) with maps from the early stages of the UA counteroffensive in Kharkiv?

Looks like the US is going to sign of $12 billion in thr next aid package

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-negotiators-set-12-bln-new-ukraine-aid-2022-09-26/

Hard to see what Russia has left to counter this.

Do we think they will resort to nukes? Have bio or chemical weapons been kind of downgraded by the US make sure clear threats if nukes are used?

Don’t they have form for chemical weapons in Syria?

https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/09/update-chair-independent-international-commission-inquiry-ukraine-51st-session

UN Human Rights update on Ukraine

Investigating cases related to sexual and gender-based violence present specific challenges. The Commission has found that some Russian Federation soldiers committed such crimes. These acts amounted to different types of violations of rights, including sexual violence, torture, and cruel and inhuman treatment. There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes. In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from four to 82 years.

The Commission has documented cases in which children have been raped, tortured, and unlawfully confined. Children have also been killed and injured in indiscriminate attacks with explosive weapons. The exposure to repeated explosions, crimes, forced displacement and separation from family members deeply affected their well-being and mental health.

A swing south east above Nove down to the river, coupled with a push up from south of Lyman would trap any RF forces left
The river forms a natural barrier to the east. Bet there is a huge amount of hardware within that area.
Take days to safely clear any pockets of resistance and harvest any apc, tanks or ammo thats left behind.

Hard to see what Russia has left to counter this.

Do we think they will resort to nukes? Have bio or chemical weapons been kind of downgraded by the US make sure clear threats if nukes are used?

Don’t they have form for chemical weapons in Syria?
Posted 36 minutes ago

I doubt Russia will resort to nukes or chemical weapons as they’ll not win the war for Russia, would certainly lose all support Russia has from any allies and would probably result in Nato countries if not Nato itself actively getting involved.

I’ve read somewhere that the US/Nato have been talking via back channels with Russia about retaliation if Russia uses nukes and that they’re left the threats purposely ambiguous. I’ve also read, on twitter so it could be pure lies, that Nato has threatened to sink the Black Sea fleet and destroy Russia’s navy bases using Nato air power if Russia use nukes.

Link for that here @wheeliedirty https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan

Jake Sullivan is the current National Security Advisor to Joe Biden

This conscription office shooting in Ust-limsk is so sad. “We will all go home now”. Just a normal person faced with an insane choice- go fight in a futile disastrous war, without the support or gear you need, and with no guarantee of ever being allowed to muster out even if you survive, and also even if you do it turns out you might just get re-conscripted again… The price of accepting is so insanely high that alternatives stop looking insane.

That’s the only shooting we know of, but apparently 20 recruitment centres have been torched. And who knows how many suicides have happened or are happening. Someone on the news said people were being radicalised, but that’s not it at all. Radical action has been sensibilised.

UN Human Rights update on Ukraine

Horrifying reading.
Extremes seem the normal among Russian soldiers.

Every person helps.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/edward-snowden-granted-russian-citizenship-by-vladimir-putin-12705918

The Snowden thing is odd a man who campaigns for open free speach (collection of data ECT) lives in a controlled media/,data state.
Meh

Give Snowden a rusty AKM, a day’s basic training and a truck ride to Lyman now he’s a citizen.

Heard today a leaked documents put the number of potential conscripts to be 1 million.

Investigating cases related to sexual and gender-based violence present specific challenges. The Commission has found that some Russian Federation soldiers committed such crimes. These acts amounted to different types of violations of rights, including sexual violence, torture, and cruel and inhuman treatment. There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes. In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from four to 82 years.

Reminds me of some of the accounts of soldiers in Vietnam. Not saying it makes it alright but just that in brutal wars that **** people up, **** up people do **** up things.

Pk

Because if he leaves there he will end up in a us jail for life.

Thats his choice. Russia or life in a us jail

The while Snowden thing, yeah. He’s stuck there for life basically.

Putin giving citizenship is just about poking the US in the ribs. A completely impotent Acton from an increasingly impotent leader.

Re: Edward Snowden, as TJ says he’s still wanted.
TLDR: Snowden massively damaged spying by countries friendly to the US when Russia and China decrypted a million+ files taken by him.
Russia has said that he won’t be conscripted because he doesn’t have military experience

He’s applied for asylum all over the world and alleges that in 2013 Vice-President Joe Biden put pressure on those countries, including Ecuador who issued travel documents and then withdrew them.
The case is complex because in 2015 bulk collection of US calling records by the NSA was deemed illegal, which is why Snowden is often referred to as a whistleblower.
In 2019 the US issued civil proceedings against him for ignoring his non-disclosure agreement with the CIA and NSA

Patriarch Kirill, leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, believes that the sacrifice made by RF who die in the war “washes away all the sins that a person has committed.”

A lot of Russians don’t want to be drafted….

Russians are the one and only nation that flees the war it has started. pic.twitter.com/CGxQi7QZHz

— Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет (@AlexKhrebet) September 26, 2022

Millions of cubic metres of gas have leaked into the Baltic Sea in Danish waters from the unused NordStream 2 pipeline. This war is affecting so many on so many different levels; the environmental disaster from building the unnecessary pipeline is now compounded

I’ll subscribe to that if Pooootin applies. I’d like to see him absolved of his sins in such a manner.