Really good Economist article about tank warfare in Ukraine. Not behind a paywall for me

A most thoughtful piece on the future of the tank in today's Economist (was not behind a paywall for me)https://t.co/98OJ5Iz8o7

— Dr Peter Caddick-Adams #StandwithUkraine (@militaryhistori) June 17, 2022

If this is accurate, it suggests Russia is really struggling to replace losses.

That bloke has been predicting the imminent demise of the Russian offensive for weeks – happening real soon now. Not.

The Russians don’t have as many shiny high tech toys as the west, but an old aphorism attributed to Stalin is relevant – “quantity has a quality all of its own”.

That bloke has been predicting the imminent demise of the Russian offensive for weeks – happening real soon now. Not.

It’ll be months or years before we have a clear picture, but Russia seems to be making extremely slow progress and taking heavy losses. Digging out old tanks that have been in storage for decades and crewing them with 50 year-old conscripts is something you would only do if your were utterly desperate

Digging out old tanks that have been in storage for decades and crewing them with 50 year-old conscripts is something you would only do if your were utterly desperate

Is that actually happening though (genuine question – I just haven’t read anything about this).

 “quantity has a quality all of its own”.

It does, but It’s not really applicable in the sort of attritional war that this has ended up being. The quantity over quality things works if you’re engaged in a very fast very mobile aggressive war that’s looking to roll over the enemy as fast and as comprehensively as it can. It doesn’t stack up so well otherwise. Look at just the tank losses that Russia has suffered now; 750 or so from a total force of about 3000, That’s nearly a third of the total of the entire Russian army (which probably includes stuff that exists only really on paper) in less than 120 days of war fighting. Or again airplanes:  5 confirmed Su-25 either shot down or RTB so badly damaged that they won’t ever fly again. Now compared to A10 (a comparable aircraft) losses in Dessert Storm, also 5…But out of 8000 sorties. The whole of the Rus AF hasn’t flown that many missions in Ukraine

The quantity over quality things works if you’re engaged in a very fast very mobile aggressive war that’s looking to roll over the enemy as fast and as comprehensively as it can. It doesn’t stack up so well otherwise

So from my point of view that’s the opposite of what we are seeing – the initial tank attacks on Kyiv failed spectacularly due to the quality of the Ukrainian anti-tank weapons and tactics, whereas now they are being pulverised by the sheer volume of Russian artillery. We’ve no very good idea of the losses each side is taking, but the red stain on the maps keeps getting bigger.

Yes, I think the Russian are still “just” able to advance and the Ukrainians are “mostly” able to halt them. From a Russian perspective this just means they’ve lost. they don’t control the airspace, their breakouts don’t really work, and they daren’t retreat.

The Economist has reported an estimate on the daily cost of the war for Russia: $876

Any extra digits on that? 😉

Is that actually happening though (genuine question – I just haven’t read anything about this).

Yes, they seem to be digging out some pretty ancient gear from storage. There was a video of some T-62 tanks being sent to Ukraine on a train. Those are basically 1950s technology and they won’t have been updated with modern sensors and other electronic gear. One theory is that they will be servicable because they are used by reserve units, so the engines will start. The more modern tanks is storage won’t have had any maintenance in decades and will take a lot more work to get them mobile.

So yes, Russia has a lot of gear but they’ve already lost a lot of their best stuff and they seem to be shipping some very old stuff to the front. If they are desperate enough to conscript 50 year-olds armed with 60-year old equipment, they won’t be making any blitzkrieg breakouts, they’ll just have to dig in and stick to artillery bombardment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0c738bt

Interesting and relevant “War On Truth” episode on Radio 4 just now.

Photos of Marianna Vyshemirsky – wrapped in a duvet and with her forehead bloodied – have become some of the iconic images of the Russian invasion.

Marianna, a beauty blogger who was about to give birth, was caught up in the bombing of a maternity hospital in Mariupol on 9 March.

And in the aftermath of the attack, Marianna soon faced another onslaught – this time of disinformation and hate aimed at her and her family.

As Russia attempted to deny it had struck the hospital, Marianna was falsely accused of “acting” for staged photos. Russian diplomats even claimed that she had “played” not one, but two different women. Their allegations were false – so what was the truth?
In her podcast War on Truth, Marianna Spring has investigated the stories of people caught up in the information war over Ukraine. And in this episode, she spoke to Marianna Vyshemirsky after the beauty blogger was evacuated to her hometown in a part of Donbas controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

Good for infantry support against lightly armed opposition.
Not so good against any form of current Western anti tank technology. Evan a new rpg would probably blow a hole in an older Russian tank.

Older tanks have thicker armour than some modern RF ones. No defensive suites though, or modern targeting/gun stabilisation .

Any extra digits on that? 😉

Haha! $876 million a day.

Yes, I think the Russian are still “just” able to advance and the Ukrainians are “mostly” able to halt them. From a Russian perspective this just means they’ve lost. they don’t control the airspace, their breakouts don’t really work, and they daren’t retreat.

I wish I agreed but it looks worse to me. It looks like they are able to continue their bombardment ad infinitum because they have the kit (albeit old) and they don’t care about Ukrainian civilians or even losses of their own men (especially not ethnic minority Russians, Chechens, Syrinas etc)

Watching the BBC documentary about the Falklands, that was clearly devastating but it was just a few weeks of conflict. This has been going on for months. I can’t imagine what it’s like at the sharp end.

T-62 tanks are apparently used by reserve units, not front line units. That suggests that Russia has fully committed all their best units and equipment and are now having to send second tier stuff.

📽️Russian T-62M tanks on the move near #Popasna, Luhansk Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/EKHNC4McJq

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) June 18, 2022

I don’t see how the Russians can win this. They are in a complete stalemate. The kit they are bringing out now is getting older and older (as are the troops). Their gun barrels will be wearing out and the ammunition getting older as they pull it out of stockpiles, meaning lots more duds. The Ukrainians need AT LEAST a 3:1 advantage to be assured of success in major counter offensives, so their best bet is probably to keep nibbling away. There may still be a few swings backwards and forwards for a while yet, and sadly a lot more death and destruction.

War of attrition that can only be influenced by one side giving up, which probably won’t happen, or a meaningful supply of materiel to one side
Successful European overtures for peace are also unlikely because that’ll involve Ukraine giving up parts of their country in an echo of the 1938 Munich Agreement and we all know how that one ended

I agree I’m struggling to see how this can end. Even though Russia might end up pushing the Ukraine forces out of the Donbas region, I can’t see that being the end of it- there is every indication that Ukraine will carry on fighting

The only way out might be for Putin to go. How that ends up happening or if it ever would is anyone’s guess. But if they can get rid of communism they should in theory be able to get rid of Putinism eventually.

I agree I’m struggling to see how this can end. Even though Russia might end up pushing the Ukraine forces out of the Donbas region, I can’t see that being the end of it- there is every indication that Ukraine will carry on fighting

Ukraine can only carry on fighting as long as other countries support it.

Ukraine can only carry on fighting as long as other countries support it.

The US supported the Afghans when they were fighting the old USSR for a decade, and the Chinese supported the Vietnamese against the US for double that. So, maybe that’s what we have a here- a ten year conflict before Russia finally slinks out with it’s tail between it’s legs

shermer75
Free Member
Ukraine can only carry on fighting as long as other countries support it.

The US supported the Afghans when they were fighting the old USSR for a decade, and the Chinese supported the Vietnamese against the US for double that. So, maybe that’s what we have a here- a ten year conflict before Russia finally slinks out with it’s tail between it’s legs

The drip drop nature of the funding will ensure it lasts, under a hundred billion isn’t going to cut it. If they want to send a proper message to putin they really should announce funding of multiples of that. £300billion to kick it of with an overdraft up to a trillion should make a statement.

The US supported the Afghans when they were fighting the old USSR for a decade, and the Chinese supported the Vietnamese against the US for double that. So, maybe that’s what we have a here- a ten year conflict before Russia finally slinks out with it’s tail between it’s legs

Afghanistan and Vietnam were part of a cold war by proxy and without the risk of nukes. End of WW2 to the collapse of the Soviet Union, or roughly 45 years. 10 years or 45 years, please be wrong!

10 years or 45 years, please be wrong!

Fingers crossed!!!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-nations-push-new-russia-sanctions-more-military-aid-ukraine-2022-06-20/
More faffing from Europe amounting to not very much and concern from them about tapping the European Peace Facility up for more Euros, “Germany and other states are reluctant to tap this facility further, citing budgetary concerns and risks that not enough money would be available for other crises.”

This post is from Fynn the lad in the village who started our direct action group:
Refugee centre in Warsaw tonight ahead of another coaches2ukraine project back to the UK tomorrow.

I was last here in late March and there was about 5000 people. 2 months on and still around 2000 people.

The polish government are stopping a general allowance for hosts accommodating Ukrainians in Poland at the end of this month so they centres are expecting more people here as accommodation is lost elsewhere.
There are still so many displaced person here we can’t give up on.

Russia getting annoyed with Lithuania now.

Why is Kaliningrad at the centre of a row between Russia and Lithuania?

Finally. Germany has delivered 7 howitzers to Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/howitzers-arrive-ukraine-first-pledged-weapons-package-germany-2022-06-21/
The Netherlands have promised another 5
France supplied 12 similar guns last month and has pledged another 6
The German response has been appalling while continuing to spend billions on Russian fuel

In other good news, seems like those donated weapons are making a difference in the sea too.

Evening Standard: Vladimir Putin’s navy ‘largely neutralised” in its ability to control swathe of Black Sea

Yes – Russian supply vessel heading for Snake island sunk, plus Snake island heavily attacked, gas platforms and advancing to 10km from Kherson – on the negative side, Lysychiansk is under threat…….

America has the equipment to finish this war, 400 HYMARS rocket systems would finish it.

The Ukrainian military have released possibly the best video of the conflict regarding Ukraine’s relationship with the UK…. just watch 🇺🇦🇬🇧
pic.twitter.com/4jDqkyQzzz

— Air & Sea Intel (@air_intel) June 22, 2022

Loved that^^!

Haha, brilliant.
.
Mikhiel Federov and his team really are the unsung heroes of this war, morale and propergander play a huge part in any conflict and they seem to have it nailed.
Let’s hope they can keep the West’s interest in it for as long as it takes

#US congressmen have introduced a bill to train #Ukrainian pilots. The #USA will now be able to start training Ukrainian pilots and crew members on F-15, F-16 and other aircraft. pic.twitter.com/cZT3JEAXS4

— Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) June 23, 2022

Permission to buzz the tower?

I was getting some insight at work today. Let’s just say our admin and husband have a served in the UK military for years and know what the oval office looks like in person. I’m both worried and encouraged – and I certainly know I wasn’t being told even half of things.

Do tell

Saw a Nissan Micra with Ukrainian plates in Winchester today.