UK Election!

A lot of the sound bites I’ve seen tonight featuring undecided voters names me wonder why they’re still undecided. Have they been asleep for 14 years/made copious cash from PPE?

I went for a ride round various villages in north Hampshire, West Berks and South Oxfordshire on Sunday. The thing that stood out to me was the prevalence of Libdem signs out on display. To put it in context these are very Tory locations with lots of accumulated wealth. It’s one thing for these people not to be displaying a Tory candidates propaganda, but it would previously be bordering on treacherous to display a Libdem sign.

I do wonder if a lot of the respondents to polls saying ‘undecided‘ are really just ‘decided, but a bit ashamed‘ i.e. previously nailed on Tories struggling to openly admit they’re placing their vote elsewhere.

I think it’s reasonable to expect more metropolitan areas and some of the disillusioned ‘red wall‘ to go labour’s way, with perhaps some more showings for Reform, I do wonder if those more rural, typically Tory constituencies, might edge a bit more towards the Libdems now though, where people still haven’t quite got the stomach for Labour or the Reform thugs but can trade down to small ‘c’ conservatism with the LDs.

How that defecting Tory vote will split down in different areas and just how honest people will be about their voting choices is the unknown factor driving those “undecided” voters.

For them the dilemma is often whether to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, or SNP.

I’m a lib dem but I’m voting labour tomorrow…

It’s really a very simple flow chart depending on your local incumbent,  for me it’s a simple vote to get Craig Whittaker out, And Josh in.

Then next GE I’m sure we will have a much different picturre, but, priorities have to be… prioritised.

STOP PRESS

I’m Craig Whittaker and it has been an honour to represent Calder Valley as its Member of Parliament since 2010. I am not seeking re-election, so another Member of Parliament will be taking my place in Calder Valley.

This website is a record of the work I’ve done as an MP, but please be advised since a General Election has been called, Parliament has dissolved and there are no MPs until after Polling Day.

source: https://www.craigwhittaker.org.uk/

another Member of Parliament will be taking my place in Calder Valley.

Yeah, the’d need to be elected before they become an MP, you **** shyster!

Wealth taxes? I don’t think the Tories understand how few people actually have wealth these days.

Lots of folk have wealth.  Plenty of room for wealth taxes – and I would be caught in any decent wealth tax.  this is a rich countrey its just a minority hoard most of it.

There are a lot of people who are undecided who to vote for, even if they are certain who they are not going to vote for.

That’s really quite an insightful way of framing it.

Like what else would be a success? You’re gaslighting/trolling us Ernie. FFS!

Anyway off to bed,..

Try to calm down sus. If you think that I am gaslighting/trolling you then how about trying not to react? Although going to bed is a possibly a good option.

Winning general elections is one measure of electoral success although it obviously isn’t the only one.

The definition of winning a general election is getting a majority of at least one. David Cameron didn’t manage to achieve that in 2010 he did however become PM, would you say that he was an electoral failure in 2010  because he didn’t win the general election?

Charles Kennedy was an electorally successful leader of the Liberal Democrats, even though they did not win any general elections, because support for the LibDems grew significantly under his leadership.

The Sky News article I was referring to was suggesting that Keir Starmer was on course to become the most successful Labour leader in history.

I was challenging that because I don’t believe that winning one general election represents the greatest electoral achievement a Labour leader can make.

Tony Blair won three general elections which in my opinion trumps winning one, however big the majority might be.

I cannot imagine Keir Starmer winning three general elections, and there is certainly no evidence that he will.

So the Sky News article was not using winning general elections as a gauge of being the most successful Labour leader in history.

Hence my point…… If winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms then Starmer will not have qualified for the accolade of greatest Labour leader in history tomorrow.

Unless of course you agree with Sky News’s alternative definition of “success in electoral terms”?

Blair built on what Kinnock and Smith had done for the party… the Labour Party were in a far worse state in terms of public support (and all that means for future elections) after the 2019 election than after 1992. To go from that to possibly winning an election…? Anyway, save it for Friday, this could all still go wrong… most people are voting tomorrow… no point weighing up a win that might still end up being close… or even a loss (god no, please)… no matter what is “predicted”. Ask Kinnock.

Still no real signs of an election around here.  I have had some waste paper ( election leaflets) thru the door but very few signs up and very little activity.  I think there is a definite feeling of ” a plague on all their houses ” here

I’d have to agree with Sky

So you agree with Sky News that Starmer is on course to become tomorrow the most successful Labour leader, in electoral terms, in history, even if he doesn’t win another general election?

So winning general elections is obviously not your criteria for being successful in electoral terms. If it was then Tony Blair would still have that distinction on Friday.

It is apparently the manner that a general election is won that counts.

Are you gaslighting/trolling us Kelvin?😉

Edit: So you edited and retracted your “I agree with Sky” comment Kelvin – very wise. But I’ll leave my comment anyway as the gist of what you are saying remains the same.

Try to calm down sus. If you think that I am gaslighting/trolling you then how about trying not to react?

Spoken like a true gas-lighter!

Seats to watch..

Richmond, Clacton, Islington!

Will Corbyn make it over the line as an indy? Would be fun if Prime Miniature Rishi PooSack lost his seat!

even if he doesn’t win another general election?

Only you said that.

I can’t describe a win that hasn’t happened (or a loss that hasn’t)… but if Labour win a large majority tomorrow, yes that, depending on the scale, could be described as a bigger success than ‘97. In the hypothetical event of a bigger majority than in ‘97, coming from such a low point, then yes it could be described as more remarkable than when Blair lead Labour back into power in ‘97, for the reason I outlined. As for future elections, no-one knows anything.

Another pointless argument where one isn’t needed.

Well survation have updated their MRP including the data from that phone poll

And notablly reform are worryingly high

Labour: 475 (-9)
Conservative: 64 (-)
Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 13 (+3)
Reform UK: 13 (+6)
Green Party: 3 (-)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)

Only you said that.

No Sky News said it.

Read the article if you are going to comment on it.

According to YouGov, Labour are set to win 431 seats, the highest number in the party’s history and passing the previous peak of 419 reached by Tony Blair in 1997 – making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.

So just winning one general election  at the scale suggested by YouGov will make “Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.”

According to Sky News.

I think it would be quite funny to see Corbyn elected as an indie in islington.

Clacton? well it seems Nigel Garage has ‘love bombed’ the locals enough to pinch it, but time will tell.

If Labour win a bigger majority than Blair did in ‘97, given where the party was after the last election, then that will be the biggest success in electoral terms for any Labour leader. In my opinion. Happy to agree with that Sky opinion piece.

And notablly reform are worryingly high

That’s crap. 13 seats would give Reform UK a huge platform to launch a massive challenge in 2029.

The Survation poll seems crazy, it’s hard to believe that the Tories could end up with only 64 MPs, but it is also hard to dismiss any poll by Survation based on their previous general election predictions.

Although I welcome a Tory wipeout I wouldn’t want at the cost of Reform UK having to serious Parliamentary foothold.

Crystal Ball time… Reform UK won’t make it as far as 2029… but Farage will, if he wins his seat.

Farage won’t be able to control another 12 oddball racists if they were to get that many

What world be interesting /worrying is where the Tories end up, with just a handful of MPs they could end up all over the place and if their new leader is far right enough could see some defections to refuk

Happy to agree with that Sky opinion piece.

So winning general elections is not your only criteria for success. The manner in which they are won also counts.

Therefore a Labour leader can win just one general election and still be regarded as the the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.

A bit like Charles Kennedy was the most successful LibDem leader, in electoral terms, despite never winning a general election (or being in coalition government)

Thanks for confirming and agreeing with me that electoral success can sometimes be interpreted as more than just winning general elections. We got there in the end!

What?

Improving seat count can be seen as a success. Improving vote share can be seen as a success. Hell, in some cases losing votes and seats could be seen as a success, depending on what has gone on since the last election. All pale as conciliation prizes compared to winning an election outright and actually getting to form a majority government

EDIT: especially if that looked impossible from your starting point. Anyway, it could still be tight tomorrow, if enough people wake up assuming others will vote to remove the Tories and don’t bother.

Farage won’t be able to control another 12 oddball racists if they were to get that many

I’m not so sure about that. Presumably the Reform UK candidates in the more winnable seats are their better “quality” candidates.

And TBH Reform UK MPs won’t have to do much – the limelight will still shine almost exclusively on Farage, it always does.

It could obviously increase the possibility of defections from the Tory Parliamentary rump, which would obviously swell their numbers further.

The greatest worry is that voters dissatisfied with a Labour government will turn to RUK. And depending on your faith in Keir Starmer that is a very real possibility.

Although also possible is the emergence of a new Left party. The fear of a far-right victory in 2029 could be a catalyst for that.

Contemporary politics has become very unpredictable so everything is guesswork, the old rules no longer seem to apply.

Improving seat count can be seen as a success. Improving vote share can be seen as a success.

Some people claim that 2017 was something of a success for Labour because they improved both their seat count and their share of the vote significantly.

Others claim that it was a complete failure because Labour didn’t win the general election, and apparently that’s the only thing that counts. Mind you the Tories didn’t win that election either.

making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.

Is ‘successful’ the correct word though ?, I’d have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.

Keir Starmer doesn’t exactly come across as dynamic. We’ve seen a greater range of emotional responses from Pinocchio.

Although I welcome a Tory wipeout I wouldn’t want at the cost of Reform UK having to serious Parliamentary foothold.

While I don’t welcome any electoral success for Reform, I’m not sure how it’s different to the Tories largely saying and doing the same things. The foothold Reform would get is one that factions of the Tory party already have. Do the Reds-Moggs, Francois, Bravermans and so on that we curet have add up to more than 13?

dyna-ti
Full Member

Is ‘successful’ the correct word though ?, I’d have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.

Course, that’s exactly what happened with Tony Blair. History’s written by the survivors

It would be a very close election if it wasn’t for Garrage, labour might have just about squeaked over the line anyway with a very slim majority, but the maniacs on the extreme right are divided… for now.

So he’s (nigel) a usefull idiot in the clear and present danger sense, but what happens in the term after this will be really interesting, will the tories re-group or will they reform under ther, Urmm ..reform banner?

Who knows. Hopefully they all die.

Kier certainly has his work cut out for him!

Testing

Testing

“It would be a very close election if it wasn’t for Garrage, labour might have just about squeaked over the line anyway with a very slim majority”

The latest conspiracy theory which I heard yesterday is that Starmer and Farage are allies.

Apparently that is the reason Labour are refusing to back their candidate in Clacton.

the dirty digger kinda sorta backs Starmer….

Ed Davey off to his polling station. pic.twitter.com/xsJ4t7kpvJ

— Dave. Just Dave. (@davidwhittam) July 4, 2024

In 2020, Keir Starmer promised not to speak to The Sun because of the hurt it caused to Liverpool.

Today, he says he's delighted The Sun has backed Labour.

Nothing more to say. pic.twitter.com/P20YskrzC1

— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) July 3, 2024

'I am delighted to have the support and the backing of The Sun. I think that shows just how much this is a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people.' pic.twitter.com/y9L4LMXwyw

— j (@jrc1921) July 3, 2024

I’d have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.

Corbyn and Kinnock were leaders at election times when Tory shitshows were on full display. They failed. Blair succeeded. Starmer – we will see. It’s not just luck.

https://twitter.com/0hrsinOx/status/1808773082829439486/photo/1

#ToriesCostLives #ToriesOut #ToriesIntoThird pic.twitter.com/m25V7mFyqN

— Zero Hours (@0hrsinOx) July 4, 2024

I’m intrigued to see what happens locally. NE Derbyshire, and travelling around the nice villages mostly have Tory placards up, whilst the more urban areas are Labour placards.

We now have a reform candidate, which we didn’t at the last election, so may split the Tory vote.  But the Tory incumbents campaign has been pretty clever, basically saying that our Tory candidate Lee Rowley is a local guy knows the people etc, whilst Labour have parachuted someone in from Leicestershire.

It would be fascinating to see what the voting is like on a polling station by polling station basis.

Everyone got their bingo cards ready for tonight?

Here is a bingo card for tonight. Cross out the ministers as they lose their seats!

Happy General Election Day! #GeneralElection2024 pic.twitter.com/kydhSeLbRO

— Anti-growth Coalition ??????#FBPE #GTTO (@CRejoiner) July 4, 2024

How’s the weather? Rather windy here, drizzle forecast later.

Well, I’ve just requested that Fazzini-jnr go and vote as he’s just crawled out of bed. I’ll let him off as he works night shifts ?.

I reminded him that it was his democratic right to choose the candidate who he felt best represented his own interests and would best serve his future hopes and dreams, whilst also reminding him that if he voted tory or reform he’d get home at 6am to find the locks changed and his belonging on the doorstep. ?

(PS: I still have the ‘fear’ of the overall result ?. Just can’t shake the nagging doubt…)

But the Tory incumbents campaign has been pretty clever, basically saying that our Tory candidate Lee Rowley is a local guy knows the people etc, whilst Labour have parachuted someone in from Leicestershire.

Same here (also northern end of Derbyshire).
Labour guy doesn’t live here, he’s from Westminster, he’s one of the elite blah blah against the local “independently minded” MP (he keeps using that phrase to hide the fact that he’s a Tory).

Lots of Labour posters locally, a few Reform ones in some of the surrounding fields (maybe so they can’t directly be associated with a house?).

My local polling station had no-one in it at 8am when I got there (other than the three very cheerful and friendly women on the desk). Looking at the list as they checked me off, I reckon there’d been about 15-20 in before me.

Had a WhatsApp from a mate to say there were rumours that the Count Binface vote might inadvertently save Sunak. 🙁

I had to queue for a moment to vote – I don’t recall that happening before. But the woman in the booth next to me appeared to be writing some sort of thesis by means of a spoiled ballot. We could do without any of that where we are – unless she’d have voted for one of the loons. There was quite the array on our ballot paper. Which worries me, as splitting the vote like that will keep the tories in! Eep.