UK Election!

I’m hoping Starmers tactic is to queitly push for allignment with SM & CU, as it’s not technically being a member, as it makes a lot of sense for the UK, whilst not requireing full ascension, it makes way to restore a lot of deals and agreements.

Almost like the brexit deal that was being tabled before the scorched-earth crash-out no deal brexit we ended up with that NO ONE VOTED FOR.

Brexiteers are stupid enough to swallow that pill if it’s sold to them in the correct way.

Interesting opinion piece on Starmer, Class and Labour party by Dan Evans

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/03/keir-starmer-son-toolmaker-but-different-class-problem-for-labour

“Because it was birthed to manage them, the PMC has always had a contradictory attitude towards the lower orders, whom it views with a blend of romantic paternalism and contempt. Working-class people need to be saved, goes the view, to be helped by us – the experts – because they are incapable of helping themselves. This technocratic paternalism has always been latent in the Labour party through the Fabian Society, a middle-class guild that was deeply suspicious of the working class, and whose vision was of a scientific, rational socialism delivered from above.”

There’s a brexit thread already.

This is the election thread, it’s tomorrow, no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.

It’s a non-issue *for this thread*.

Well there we go. I was starting to consider a switch from Green to a tactical Labour vote. Never joining EU in Starmer’s lifetime eh? **** off then!

Given that he’s a bit of a boozer it’s probably a simple statement

LOL – according to you he is a secret alcoholic and a football hooligan!

“I’m hoping Starmers tactic is to queitly push for allignment with SM & CU”

Got to LOL at people who still come out with this level of fantasy wishful thinking despite Starmer comprehensively ruling it out repeatedly over and over again at every opportunity over the past several years.

Again and again. Read his lips. No alignment, no membership, pretend or otherwise. He really does believe he can “make a success of Brexit”.

He’s a good 5 years behind the majority of the population and heading in the wrong direction.

And the foundation for a new myth has already been laid, even before the polling stations have opened.

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-sir-keir-starmer-to-win-largest-ever-labour-election-victory-with-biggest-landslide-since-1832-poll-suggests-13162987

“making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms”

The majority of opinion polls of the last week show that Labour’s share of the vote is likely to be smaller than it was in 2017.

And if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms then whilst it looks certain that Starmer will win tomorrow there is no evidence that he personally will win the following general election, although Labour might well.

Winning one general election is hardly a claim to being the most successful Labour leader in history.

What Starmer undoubtedly is is the luckiest Labour leader in history. In fact he is possibly the luckiest UK party leader ever in history.

If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?

There’s a brexit thread already.

This is the election thread, it’s tomorrow, no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.

It’s a non-issue *for this thread*.

It’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about brexit….just as it’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about health, social care, education, human rights, etc.

All of these things are intrinsically linked.

spekkie
Free Member
I wonder how the voters in Kent that wanted Brexit and got a lorry park in their back gardens for their troubles will vote?

over ready deal and all that.

Kentite here. Not everyone if the SE wanted Brexit I can tell you. Or the Tories.

Lincolnshire seems to be the Brexit capital of the UK in fact. However, I’m making a generalisation that also assumes everyone there also loves Brexit and it’s always more complex that generalisations allow for.

Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.

no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.

the SNP.  the Greens.  We do not all live in racist pockets of England

Brexit will remain the number one political theme as it is.  How much has it been talked about in the press?  How many times has Starmer been asked about it?  How many times has he lied about it?

then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.

I suggest that you do it the other way around…..up first thing tomorrow to get to the polling station and then have a bike ride on Friday 💡

Not everyone if the SE wanted Brexit I can tell you

I don’t think it was more than 60/40 anywhere either way, was it?

I wonder if a couple of terms with a tiny number of MPs will demonstrate the benefits of PR to the Tories.

and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.

Yeah but no, but

Well there we go. I was starting to consider a switch from Green to a tactical Labour vote. Never joining EU in Starmer’s lifetime eh? **** off then!

Sunak says thanks, but it’s not enough.

I don’t think it was more than 60/40 anywhere either way, was it?

Significantly more pro EU across most of Scotland.  My area was almost 75: 25 IIRC  Scotland overall was more than 60% remain

If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?

How many times have we had a genuine 4 party option?

Man maths but if you base line as an equal proportion per party and then see what the parties are getting as a % of that

So in a three party fight, as most have been for the past however long, if all equally voted for you’d expect 33.3% vote share (not really because others also take typically 5-10% overall, but as a model it works)

1997 Blair won with 43.2% in a 3 way race – 43.2/33.3 = 130% of nominal share / 419 seats

2001 L @ 40.7%  = 122% / 413

2005 L @ 35.2% = 107% / 356

2010 C @ 36.1 = 108% / 307

2015 C @ 36.8 = 111% / 331 (potential to see as 4 party – UKIP took 12.6% votes share but LD was massacred so maybe they cancel)

2017 C @ 42.3 = 127% / 318 (almost a 2 horse race – no UKIP and LD still massacred – C+L in this election got 82.3% votes share between them)

2019 C@ 43.6 = 131% / 365 seats

2024 L @41% say – but 41% vs a 25% nominal share = 164% and on for well over 400 seats, some say as high as 450

So 41% might be a low overall % but the vagaries of FPTP AND the fact it’s a genuine 4 horse race means as a proportion of the nominal ‘all parties equally supported’ hypothesis it’s actually pretty high.

The other bit is of course that if it was 3 party and if T + RUK were combined then it would be a lot closer. But RUK has IIRC been taking out of every 3 votes won, 2 from T and 1 from L so can’t necessarily use that addition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_elections_overview

It’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about brexit….just as it’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about health, social care, education, human rights, etc.

All of these things are intrinsically linked.

I agree, Brexit is the worst political ‘thing’ in my lifetime and I still haven’t got over it tbh.

Just rather this thread didn’t go round and round on a single issue, it’s been good when it keeps moving. 👍

Most people are no where near as engaged in politics at as the people on here and they voted in large part for Boris in ’19 because they were sick to death of Brexit consuming politics.

He could have just stayed quiet on the matter but instead he decided to give a two fingers to everyone who isnt still deluded about brexit.

He seems desperate to pander to the tory voters whilst his acolytes shout about anyone who doesnt vote for him is voting for the tories.

He really is making it hard to tactically vote to get the tories out considering his utter contempt for anyone who isnt a tory. We keep hearing the guff about a ming vase but he seems quite happy to be twatting anyone left wing over the head in his desperation to please the right.

bails
Full Member
Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.

Very good.👍😁

Not a bad idea as long as you have a few tory voting mates you can convince to vote Friday too!

If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?

The Tory implosion has certainly helped, but then Starmer helped with that in his own eay

When he asked “where all the rules followed? ”   Johnson lied and said yes Starmer finished with “we’ll leave it there”

Starmer has said he didn’t know for sure what has gone on but the news about the allegra Stratton video had just leaked

When he took over labour were at 29pts,

He’ll be 10pts ahead tomorrow?

Certainly not seeing the world on fire, but good competent enough

no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.

the SNP.  the Greens.  We do not all live in racist pockets of England

The Greens are not an influential party. The SNP is influential in the small minority of constituencies where it stands, but it does not have a policy of rejoining the EU. It has a two step policy of independence and then Scotland becoming a member of the EU. That’s an even longer timescale than the UK becoming a member of the EU again, which itself would take years and years. And that’s if the EU states were even interested in hearing our bullshit at all – we have seen how the “they need us more than we need them” argument plays out already.

We do not all live in racist pockets of England – nor irredentist pockets of Northern Ireland or separatist pockets of Scotland.

How many times have we had a genuine 4 party option?

I am not sure how relevant the basis for Starmer’s extraordinarily good luck is to the point being made, i.e. he is quite possibly the luckiest political leader ever rather than the most outstandingly astute Labour leader ever, but yeah, a combination of a genuine 4 party option plus the vagaries of first-past-the-post lie at the root of this exceptionally good luck.

Plus the Tories being on some sort of kamikaze mission for the last couple of years or so.

you pointed out that getting a massive majority with only 38% of the vote (a rough cut across polls says 40-41% probably) was odd, I was just explaining why I don’t think that 38-40% in a 4 horse race is as low as it looks.

The rest, being lucky to have run into a campaign as inept as Rishi’s, after a government in absolute turmoil, and with a fourth party stealing votes 2:1 from them – couldn’t agree more. By basically doing or saying nothing controversial, he’s played his hand as well as he needed to.

you pointed out that getting a massive majority with only 38% of the vote (a rough cut across polls says 40-41% probably) was odd

No I didn’t. I didn’t say anything about it being odd. I said that it will be extraordinarily lucky for Starmer to receive the largest majority since 1832 with such a small share of the vote, as predicted by Survation.

I know exactly what the basis for this good extraordinary luck is – a very divided non-Labour vote.

And the 38% figure was from Survation – I was specifically referring to their prediction, quote:

If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?

Johnson really owns so much of this for removing almost every Tory MP with any principles or scruples five years ago.

What, both of them?

Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.

Very good.👍😁

Not a bad idea as long as you have a few tory voting mates you can convince to vote Friday too!

😁

What, both of them?

Bravo 👏🏿 😂

A lot of the sound bites I’ve seen tonight featuring undecided voters names me wonder why they’re still undecided. Have they been asleep for 14 years/made copious cash from PPE?

why they’re still undecided.

There are a lot of people who are undecided who to vote for, even if they are certain who they are not going to vote for.

For them the dilemma is often whether to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, or SNP.

Plus of course some 2019 Tory voters haven’t decided whether to vote Reform UK.

Many people are not a 100% certain who they are going to vote for until the ballot paper is in front of them.

It took me a while before I was completely certain that Sadiq Khan would win the London Mayoral election before I decided to definitely vote Green.

if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms

”if” ?

You can keep hammering 2017 as some kind of success for Labour, and in some ways it was… but the chance to build on that was squandered by a reluctance to accept and understand the defeat, and replace the leader. The aftermath of the wasted years after 2017 has been a long slow rebuild, by a team I didn’t think were up to completing the task in time for this next election. Hopefully tomorrow will prove me wrong. It looks more promising than I could ever have imagined in 2020.

They’re increasingly desperate…

Labour would increase taxes on every part of your life, including your death.

9 hours to stop the Labour supermajority. pic.twitter.com/3xM5oq4mjw

— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 3, 2024

“Labour will spend money on the public services that everyone can see are on their knees from our underfunding” is quite the attack line!

Coincidentally tomorrow is the day we get rid of the rubbish.

Stupidly watching Newsnight, and they’ve got that ghastly reptile Guto Harri on, he can F right off.

C4 for me tomorrow.

Vote to consign the tories to 3rd place tomorrow people. Tactical Tactical Tactical.  F*ck the tories up like they’ve f*cked the country up.

LibDem here for me, whatever works in your own constituency.

Vote well people

And if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms

Like what else would be a success? You’re gaslighting/trolling us Ernie. FFS!

Anyway off to bed, have been out doing eve of poll leaflet drops, and doing some polling station telling and tracking tomorrow morning so need some kip. Hoping that I’ll have enough energy to watch the tories getting banjaxed tomorrow evening/night

You can keep hammering 2017 as some kind of success for Labour

No I consider it to be the opposite, which is of course precisely the point I am making.

Tomorrow Labour are likely to win a massive landslide victory with possibly exactly the same level of support which they received in 2017, or even less.

And lest we forget Labour did not win the 2017 general election.

I didn’t think that it was necessary to point out that Labour didn’t win the 2017 general election.

If the 2017 general election had been a success for Labour then mentioning it would have added no value to the point I was making.

I was pointing out how crazy the first-past-the-post system is. I perfectly valid observation to make imo although it appears to have annoyed you. A bit like the mere mention the previous Labour leader results in a certain person going into one and throwing their toys out of their pram.

Tomorrow might be the first time in over fifty years that I have not lived in a conservative constituency.

Wealth taxes? I don’t think the Tories understand how few people actually have wealth these days.