I think Cavendish has made a pretty damned good job of poaching other riders’ lead-outs in the past, and he’ll happily do that again. Plus if he is a bit lighter and more all-rounder-ish he’ll be better able to protect himself from other riders getting green points in places other than bunch sprints. So even if the team focus more on Wiggins (which I think they should) that doesn’t rule Cavendish out.

Probably as soon as one week into the tour I think the team will decide if Cavendish is going all the way to Paris – my point is that I don’t believe they have already taken that decision, or at least I’d be surprised if they have.

So even if the team focus more on Wiggins (which I think they should) that doesn’t rule Cavendish out.

Probably as soon as one week into the tour I think the team will decide if Cavendish is going all the way to Paris – my point is that I don’t believe they have already taken that decision, or at least I’d be surprised if they have.

Indeed anything can happen – Sky very much had to refocus last year having lost Wiggins. Also, I agree Cav can look after himself, and has been doing that quite well this year, albeit winning less. I still think Sagen will give him a run for his money over the 3 weeks for Green as he is much more the all-rounder that can sprint, so you’re probably right to some extent that they’ll see if Cav is in the hunt before the mountains and then decide, rather than chasing the Green jersey all the way to Paris regardsless of whether he’ll win or not.

Cavendish has said in several interviews that his main goal this year is the Olympics. Check out the BBC Sport website.

I predict he’ll go hard for a few stages early on and the drop out to recover and prepare for the Olympic Road Race.

The bookies are pricing Wiggo up like he’s Lance Armstrong – nearly at evens which seems an unbelievably short price for someone who’s never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really.
Still, he’s in the shape of his life, with the tour course as favourable as it will ever be, and a couple of main contenders out injured, so it’s now or never.

Would predict the wee Aussie cane toad to come out on top, tbh. CE is such a tough rider and probably has enough left in the tank at 35 to win another Tour.

I’ve just realised I’m going to be away (without mobile coverage or anything) for the final weekend. Arse.

Sky squad announced and a few soundbites here:
http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/road/article/roa20120621-road-Wiggins-and-Cavendish-lead-Team-Sky-Tour-de-France-squad-0

someone who’s never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really

Apart from coming 4th in 2009, behind Contador, A. Schleck and Armstrong.

The bookies are pricing Wiggo up like he’s Lance Armstrong – nearly at evens which seems an unbelievably short price for someone who’s never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really.

Bookies aren’t selling accurate odds, they’re selling odds to a marketplace whilst at the same time making money. More Brittish peple will bet on Wiggins than Evans, if you want good odds on Wiggins place a bet in Sydney for example. That and ‘evens’ wouldn’t mean they’re thinking its 50/50 which it would imply, they’re thinking maybe 60/40 with a profit for them. If they were actual statistical odds then they’d have to equal 1 (which they never do, they’re always loaded towards the bookie).

Unsettling photoshop moment of the day:

….nice touch that they’ve used a photo of Wiggins for the “team shot” in plain kit, as he defo won’t have the national RR jersey by the time the tour starts. That’s my cast iron tour prediction – where do I put my bet 😉

you can’t negotiate a sponsorship deal on the back of winning races no one’s heard of.

what no name races such as milan san remo, tour of flanders, ghent wevelgem, etc. They may not carry the weight in the UK, but there are plenty of other countries and plenty of other teams. Look at the stick Gilbert is getting in the belgian press for not winning classics this year.

Look at the stick Gilbert is getting from everywhere, especially the massive-paycheck-signing Andy Rihs for not even coming close to winning anything this year.

FTFY….. it’ll be interesting to see what he comes up with at the Tour.

Hmmm, having just seen the French National TT results, I’m now predicting that Jérémy Roy will be this year’s Voekler.
(he was pretty damn good last year too).

The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don’t believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.

Rubbish. This may have been the case 20-30 yeas ago but it certainly isnt now.

Spartacus: Cancellara has long stated that his primary objective for the summer is the London Olympics.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cancellara-happy-with-progress-after-swiss-tt-win

Boonen: Tom Boonen, the season’s top one-day racer, has decided to skip the Tour de France to focus on Olympic gold in London.
http://espn.go.com/olympics/cycling/story/_/id/7936723/tom-boonen-skipping-tour-de-france-put-focus-2012-london-games

If a BELGIAN is skipping the Tour to focus on the Olympic RR I think we can safely say that, these days, it’s a big deal…

A Contador that focusses purely on one GT, would probably win it. Of course many think he dopes, but then there are those who also accuse Wiggo

do they think he doped because he failed a doping test during the tour?
As for wiggo heard nothing about this as an olympian or as a road rider. I would be very very surprised [ I was about bertie tbh]

Wiggo or evanss I cannot really see anyone else tbh

Will be interesting as i dont think cuddles has the legs to attack and i cannot see him dropping Wiggo by enough tbh.

I hope Wiggo does it I really do

Overall I am elated we are discussing a TdF with a UK rider winning it, we are discussing whether a UK rider should go for green or Olympic road gold and then focus on classics
Twenty years ago this was fantasy stuff, 10 years ago an unlikely dream and today a reality. It is the best time for UK cycling ever so lets enjoy it

what no name races such as milan san remo, tour of flanders, ghent wevelgem, etc. They may not carry the weight in the UK, but there are plenty of other countries and plenty of other teams. Look at the stick Gilbert is getting in the belgian press for not winning classics this year.

Indeed, but the British press couldn’t care less. All you ever see in the papers over here is

Track
Vulletta (if anything interesting happens)
Giro (if anything interesting happens)
Le Tour

Most Brits probably couldn’t find Roubaix on a map, a small minority might know it has a velodrome and there’s a race form Paris once a year, and a few of them know who won an what bike he was riding, a very very small minority might know what breakfast cereal he eats. They do however know who Chris Hoy is, that he wins gold for cycling in circles and eats bran flakes. If you were Kellogs dishing out sponsorship money who’d you sponsor?

I reckon Sagan could get on the podium. He’s clearly got plenty of form and @ 200 to 1 on billy hill, it’s worth a punt.

In any other year Cav wouldn’t bother with the Olympics I reckon but as its the home event, he is our best candidate he would be daft not to. It wouldn’t look good for Sky if they put that second. Of course I reckon it helps having a cross over between Sky and BC.
I am not the only ne who sees the Tour as more important. So many friends are amazed that there won’t be the same riders who win the tour (in all likelyhood) there. To joe non cycling public the Olympics are the big one but to other its the tour. Ask most cyclists who is the current Olympic champ and most won’t even have heard of him. Ask about the Tour and everyone knows.

Most Brits probably couldn’t find Roubaix on a map, a small minority might know it has a velodrome and there’s a race form Paris once a year, and a few of them know who won an what bike he was riding, a very very small minority might know what breakfast cereal he eats. They do however know who Chris Hoy is, that he wins gold for cycling in circles and eats bran flakes. If you were Kellogs dishing out sponsorship money who’d you sponsor?

And how much does Cav get from Sky, which is a global brand even if it is a british team, how much does he receive from personal deals. How much could he earn with a green jersey and how much could he earn if he gets an olympic gold? Have to look beyond his current deal and towards where he will be in a few years. He won’t be sprinting many more years and will probably need to look at the classics for his pay cheques.

So many friends are amazed that there won’t be the same riders who win the tour (in all likelyhood) there.

What is surprising, a rider who can win a 3week race not appearing in a relatively flat one day race. Why do so few riders win the tour and the world championship road race?

All it reflects is how little most people in the UK know about cyclesport in general and nothing more.

Vincenzo Nibali.

ok, i’m gonna chuck in my two penneth

yellow.

1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Menchov

green.

Matt Goss

polka dot.

I’d love to say Dan Martin, but I’m gonna go left field and say Pierre Rolland.

polka dot.

I’d love to say Dan Martin, but I’m gonna go left field and say Pierre Rolland.
That’s quite a good call actually.
This is news from last night from @inrng:

10th on GC & white jersey in TdF last year, Pierre Rolland was 34th in the French TT champs. Beaten by Gaylord Cumont

If he’s going to lose that much in the time trials, then GC is probably not worth chasing, allowing him to go for polkadot.

I guess we’ll see on the second weekend who is bothered about the mountaintop points.

Regarding the uk cycling knowledge. Unfortunately, we’re so jingoistic in this country (perhaps others are too), that things only get on the radar when we’ve got the best in the world at it.

That’s partly the reason why we’ve got so much British talent at the moment – it’s because of the money ploughed into those Olympic Golds after Lottery funding started it off in time for Sydney.

But, hopefully it means that the Tour de France and the Olympic Road Race/TT get some more publicity this year.

GC: Wiggins, Evans, Hesjedal

Green: Between Sagan and Cavendish, interesting to Cavendish recently winning a GC by placing high every day but not actually winning a stage. Is it possible that he’s happier to chase points this year rather than sit up once he no longer sees the win as a possibility?

Mountains: I’ve no idea!

Sky can work for both Wiggins and Cavendish. Granted they may not sit on the front pulling the break back in the last 60km, expect Garmin and Liquigas to do a bit more of that. But they will be working a train in the closing stages for Cavendish, Sky’s job is to keep Cav safe for the sprint and Wiggo near the front safe from crashes/splits in the field. If you think about maybe a 4 man train, Cav as 5th man and Wiggo on his tail (or even swap them around) then it works for both Cav and Wiggo. Dave Brailsford has said this is an aim.

Mrmo – The question about TdF winners not becoming World Champs is quite straight forward. The World Champs is a one day race, like a classic race (courses can be similar too), generally people who do well in World Champs races do well in one day races, or win stages in Grand Tours. The winner of a Grand Tour is the person who completes every stage of a tour in the shortest time, they don’t necessarily win any stages. They’re generally the best all rounder, not the best sprinter, not the best climber (although generally very good!), not the most powerful, not got the biggest engine – but possibly the best at recovering and being up there to race every single day.

Time of the year also has something to do with it. The Grand Tours are in May, July and September. It’s difficult to peak for one tour, then again for a one day race at the very end of the season. If you do the Vuelta in September and the World Champs, chances are you’re targeting winning one of them not both.

Mrmo – The question about TdF winners not becoming World Champs is quite straight forward. The World Champs is a one day race, like a classic race (courses can be similar too), generally people who do well in World Champs races do well in one day races, or win stages in Grand Tours. The winner of a Grand Tour is the person who completes every stage of a tour in the shortest time, they don’t necessarily win any stages. They’re generally the best all rounder, not the best sprinter, not the best climber (although generally very good!), not the most powerful, not got the biggest engine – but possibly the best at recovering and being up there to race every single day.

I know that, but the point is not many in the UK understand that what it takes to win a 3week tour and a one day race is different and if you can win won doesn’t mean you can win the other.

can I just say that this threads sucks all the fun out of what promises to be an EPIC summer of cycling for Britain.

I predict a win for some druggie, followed by some other druggies.

I may have become a bit disillusioned with pro-racing over the years…

brakes – it is sad to hear people say “it’ll be really boring”. Personally I’ll happily let the rest of the world get bored with a Team Sky domination (let’s hope), while I watch impressed by how clinically they can deliver their race plan.

I get the feeling that some of the flatter/easier (on paper) stages will have teams like Rabobank trying to ride everyone into a gutter, force a split and make those stages more exciting. I’m not sure the fireworks will actually occur on the climbs this time round.

“What is surprising, a rider who can win a 3week race not appearing in a relatively flat one day race. Why do so few riders win the tour and the world championship road race?

All it reflects is how little most people in the UK know about cyclesport in general and nothing more.”

My point exactly
Posted 1 day ago #

I don’t get the ‘boring’ remarks either. There are so many races within races going on, that I don’t ever find it properly boring.
Even on a selective stage where most follow, there’ll always be some surprises in who’s going out the back.

In fact maybe I quite like the fact it’s not a mainstream sport.

I wish Christie Anderson was still doing little commentating spots though. She was great for adding some inside info and depth.

I’d also like to see more rider profiles during the day – filling us in on the palmares of a few ‘bubbling under’ riders and neo pros.

Cav has 20 tdf wins and the record is 34 with 5 or 6 years tops left at this level I cant see him pulling out of the Tour. The olympic road race is a week after the tour finishes

Surely all the Olympic contenders are in TDF as well, not just Cav? Anyway, this year the course will be brutal for any non climber, if he retires after 6 races then it won’t be a bad move at all. Sky team will ride for both Wiggans and Cav, it just depends on which one is in the best form / position .

http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/stw-tour-de-france

Surely all the Olympic contenders are in TDF as well, not just Cav?

Nope
http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/05/16/boonen-skips-tour-de-france-to-center-on-olympics/

expect Garmin and Liquigas to do a bit more of that

Liquigas – Not so much as it’s not the Giro
Garmin – Only if there’s a chance of some good places in the GC

this year the course will be brutal for any non climber

Seems like the opposite of what the “experts” say. The Schlecks, even on form, were expected to be on for top-10 but not podium with a minimal number of big mountain stages and a lot of TT. This is why I think it plays into Wiggins hands as he seems to be a hang-in-there sort of rider in the mountains than someone like Andy Schleck (despite his 2012, the Galibier last year was an awesome show of strength) or Alberto Contador.

I do have to agree though, that with two of the best TdF riders absent I suspect that people will remember the winner as not competing against the two best big mountain riders of recent years.

I guess it depends on what he goes on to do afterwards. If from now on he’s runner up to Contador/Schleck, then you might be right.
It still wont stop me shouting at the telly for 3 weeks though (as long as he doesn’t crash)

Well I for one think we need to speculate no further.

Team Sky have now got a theme song.

You can listen to it here if you dare.

It is totally impossible for them not to win now.

I do hate it when companies announce something as being ‘viral’ before they know whether it’s popular or not.

shit – I watched the ‘viral’ and actually found it quite stirring