My predictions:

Cav will withdraw early – perhaps after stage 6.
I’m pretty certain of this one given how wiggo and cav have been talking.

Top 3:
Wiggo
Evans
Rogers/Porte (can’t quite decide)

Green jersey: hmmm Sagan?
KOM: Any decent climber who doesn’t just aim for GC.

Fingers crossed for no crashes!

Your best mates wiggo and cav been talking down the pub with you?

I predict the main race will be for Strava Segments on the route.

I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn’t there.

No crashes, I hope feel it’s Wiggins’ to lose.

Your best mates wiggo and cav been talking down the pub with you?

Is there any need?

I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn’t there.

This ^.

I do hope it’s not just a Bradley/Cadel show though

I predict when someone else wins Franck will moan that Andy Shleck wasn’t there.

Any excuse…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubEfM5npOvo

So long as its not Evans again I don’t mind who wins. He really grinds my gears.

Wiggins is going into it too much of a favourite for my liking, would prefer if he was more of an underdog.

Evans is the man to beat for me, normally i’d be pleased with him winning but not this year, would love to see Wiggins do it. Is Froome totally over the health issues he had? Could be in with an outside shout as he got stronger as the Vuelta went on whereas Wiggins tailed off a bit.

If Andy Schleck was there, I don’t see how he’d be able to take the 6+ minutes out of Wiggo (and his train) that he’d have to, in order to compensate for his highly average time trialling. Just watch Frank for an indication.

If you’d have said Contador, then I agree. A Contador that focusses purely on one GT, would probably win it. Of course many think he dopes, but then there are those who also accuse Wiggo.

I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn’t there.

Why? Even if he was on good form, Andy would lose probably 6 or 7 mins to Bradley over the 100km of time trialing. I’d be surprised if he could have pulled that back over the relatively few mountain stages this year.

edit: snap^

Cav will withdraw early – perhaps after stage 6.

why?

olympics. fulfil contractual obligation to do the tour then have a couple of weeks off. nice.

olympics

As a relative newbie to darkside appreciation, I have a observation…

Team Sky, as a whole, seem to be incrediable strong compaired to the rest. As a team, I can’t tell who could beat them…

So I have a question…. if thier team is the best and thier leader is right up there as a favourite …. is it not thiers to lose?

How does Evans get a look in, when BMC seem far weaker ?

There’s still probably 3 stages Cav could win, including the champs elysees after stage 6, so I’m not sure he will pull out that quick.

Team Sky, as a whole, seem to be incrediable strong compaired to the rest. As a team, I can’t tell who could beat them…

Rabobank and BMC both have pretty strong teams too.

yeah but there is also an olympic road race gold that cav could win. and the better prepared and rested he is the better i would have thought.

Because Cav would rather have Olympic Gold and the course looks to suit him. He’s shed some weight specifically to get over Box Hill and is confident. The other Team GB members are very happy to support him in the same way they did at the Word Champs.

I don’t think going for green would put him in the best position.

The indications come from a couple of recent Wiggo and Sky interviews where wiggo says that he’s yet to hear from Cav’s mouth that he’s going for green and also Cav hasn’t really mentioned it for a while.
Even Brailsford dodged the question.

oh and Wiggo mentioned in a video released yesterday that they might only go for green for “a third of the race”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18517127

I predict it will not be a classic. tours won on time trials are boring as hell. There’s no real characters anymore, who will keep on having digs. Probably because there’s not as much doping going on, but that’s a different topic!

GC
Wiggins
Evans
Sanchez

Green
Sagan or Greipel

KOM
god knows!

The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don’t believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.

KOM
god knows!

Hoogerland says he wants to go for it this year – one do-or-die raid for the bulk of the points on one of the big mountin days and follow-the-leader after that should be enough for anyone who wants it.

Will be interesting between Cav and Sagan for green, if Cav goes the distance – otherwise I think Sagan is a shoe-in, barring mishaps….

I do hope it’s not just a Bradley/Cadel show though

Even if it is, as long as it’s a proper one, it could be interesting.
It’s likely that Cadel would have to gain time in the mountains (maybe only 30s, but still) in order to compete. That could light it up a touch.

I do want wiggo to win, but worry (like Omar Little above) that being a favourite might be too much for him/sky.

What’s always unpredictable is which of the ‘bubbling unders’ will have the tour of their life to compete (like Voekler did last year and Wiggo did in 2009, VdV in 2008, etc). There’s always one or two!

I still don’t really know which of the Garmin riders will be the main GC tour rider – I wonder it Jonathan Vaughters prefers it this way – off the radar. Certainly Sky can’t do that.

“I will win stages but I may not win five. My sprint has suffered a little bit, but the guys who are sprinters, like I was, won’t be there in the [Olympic road race] finish.”

http://road.cc/content/news/60154-mark-cavendish-expects-tour-de-france-results-suffer-olympic-preparation

The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don’t believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.

In what context? In cycling terms Yes. In negotiating your next cereal advertising deal? Not a chance

“I will win stages but I may not win five. My sprint has suffered a little bit, but the guys who are sprinters, like I was, won’t be there in the [Olympic road race] finish.”

Maybe he thinks he’s a GC rider after the SterZLM Toer result? 😉

I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn’t there.

Contador, maybe, but Shleck? Nah…

Wiggo for the win, but not that bothered – as long as it’s a close finish with some decent mountain stages I’ll be happy 🙂

The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don’t believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.

I think you are right in the eyes of the traditional cycling fans and the euro teams.
However, there seems to be a big push to keep cycling at the forefront of the british public’s eyes. The olympics have always been more important than stage racing in their (less knowledgeable) eyes.

If the Tour was on BBC with a bit of hype around it, then who knows, but it’s not. That said, I think ITV are going to try and milk it for all they can this year.

In what context? In cycling terms Yes. In negotiating your next cereal advertising deal? Not a chance

He is a cyclist!

I don’t doubt that he wants both tour and olympics, but if it’s either-or then the tour wins by a mile. Plus the small teeam size in the olympic race means it will be very difficult to deliver Cav – basically every other nation will be trying everything they can to thwart him/us – and we don’t have enough men to cover every eventuality. The worlds was easier in that respect – and it still wasn’t easy!

He’s said he wants the Olympics this year, it comes around every four years, so he has to go for it this year.

Personally I think we’ve seen the last of Mark Cavendish – grand tour sprinter. Next year I predict a more classics based season for him…

glenp – did you read trickydisco’s Cav interview linked above?

I hadn’t read it, but have now. My opinion is unaltered really. If anything influences his tour prospects, it is the possible split in support for him and for Wiggins in the tour that takes the shine off his green jersey ambitions.

Whatever happens it’s going to be a great summer for cycling.

Personally I think we’ve seen the last of Mark Cavendish – grand tour sprinter. Next year I predict a more classics based season for him…

It’d certainly suit him if he doesnt bulk up again post olympics. I reckon he’s addaptable enough that he could build the strength back up fairly quickly and be back to normal next year. The classics aren’t as mainstream as the tours so as someone alluded to above, you can’t negotiate a sponsorship deal on the back of winning races no one’s heard of.

It was me! but you can if you’re winning obscure races with an Olympic medal round your neck

It was me! but you can if you’re winning obscure races with an Olympic medal round your neck

Indeed, I just read on the BBC that he won his first ever GC erlier this year, I take a reasnoble intrest in road cycling and ddin’t know that! Hence why I think he’ll go back to sprinting, even if the TDF is less watched than the olympics people still know of it and it makes the news. It worked for Lance anyway. Bessides he’s only 27, may as well make the most of his 20’s and ability to build big mucles, he can do some classics later once his sprint starts to wane.

The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don’t believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.

Except that he probably has another 5 or so TdF to win green, and the Olympics is only once every 4 years, the Olympics in London once in his lifetime. In overall terms he’s far better off having one less green jersey and a couple less stages (unless of course he finishes on 33!) and an Olympic Gold medal at the end of his career.

I predict a boring Tour. IMHO CE won last year by following the people he needed to 90+% of the time knowing he’d womp the Schlecks in the TT.

I think BW and CE are evens to win and my opinion is that Brad only needs to do what CE did last year.

It does appear that BMC aren’t as strong as Sky but where I think Sky had a major part of their Tour roster at the Dauphine I get the impression that BMC had split theirs across Dauphine and TdSuisse so may look a lot stronger come Tour time. I also think CE has the edge on BW in descending but I don’t know enough about the route to know if there is any stage(s) where any time could be taken on a last descent breakaway.

I have said ever since Cav signed to Sky that I hoed he would not go to the Tour. I don’t like him I will admit but my main reason is that his place, for my money, would be better taken by someone who can support Brad in the mountains. I really hope that hubris won’t lead Brailsford to lose the very best chance that a Brit has ever had of winning the overall. To me this is the year to do it. Another year without winning it may be one too many for BW given his age and I suspect that Chris Froome is maybe 2 seasons from being at the place where Brad is.

Please don’t let the Cav love fest ruin a British TdF win.

Cav wining green is a British TdF win. Not GC, but a win nonetheless. Even if Cav wins a few stages but is not consistent enough to get the green, that is still well worthwhile, from the team’s pov. Wiggins is going to score well in the tt, and try and hold his place in the mountains – I can’t see that having another rider instead of Cav in the team is going to do much to alter that picture.

Even if Cav wins a few stages but is not consistent enough to get the green, that is still well worthwhile, from the team’s pov. Wiggins is going to score well in the tt, and try and hold his place in the mountains – I can’t see that having another rider instead of Cav in the team is going to do much to alter that picture.

To go in with a stated aim that Cav is basically on his own, looking for stage wins, and the rest of the team is there to protect Wiggins is fine. Likewise, taking a train for Cav to use for stages and for points at the intermediate sprints in pursuit of Green, and Wiggins does what he can, is also fine….. Over three weeks though, to expect the team to ride on the front to protect Wiggins for GC, pull in the mountains for him AND ride to pull back breaks on the flat stages then lead out Cav and help get points in the intermediate sprints as well is asking quite a lot. Chapeau if they can do that.

I know Telekom managed it with Zabel/Ullrich, but Zabel was on his own most of the time and the whole team wasn’t doing it on bread and water alone, ahem 😉