Morning all,
Into the mountains today, could be a huge day for someone.

Bastille Day is always special on the Tour de France.78km and over 4,000m of vertical gain and most of this backloaded. There’s a flat run out of the start, t’s often exposed and there will be a 3/4 headwind to start with but this becomes a crosswind after 35km and on a road that is part-sheltered at times, part on a ridge at other times. This will make it more than a vanilla dash to the mountains but on balance should probably do more to shape the breakaway than the GC and the route becomes more protected after 70km and Saint-Gaudens. From here it’s over the small but sheltered Col de la Hountararède into the mountains and the Garonne valley and the gradual drag to Bagnères-de-Luchon, 113km in total of relatively flat roads.

The Col de Peyresourde is where the climbing starts, 13km at 7%. Early in the climb there’s even a brief descent. Then it’s 7-8% until the village of Saint Aventin where the road levels out, then resumes at 7-8% again. One characteristic of this climb is the wide road, it feels less like a mountain pass at times and more like a boulevard, the relative impression. It’s also got big visibility, riders can see groups ahead. The descent is fast and furious down into Estarvielle and Louvenvielle and then a few flat roads which twist and turn and then it’s onto Genos and the next climb.

The Col d’Azet is a steep climb with a very steep start. It’s defined by the series short ramps between the tight hairpin bends, perfect terrain to line out a group of riders. The descent down to Azet is the most technical part of the day and arguably the most difficult descent of this year’s race. It’s steep and there are a few irregular bends at the top and then a bumpy road surface. But it’s through the village of Azet that the road resembles a luge piste, only without the cambers.

The Finish: the Col du Portet is 16km at 8.7%, a beast of a climb. It starts out with a familiar stretch, the first 6.5km out of Saint Lary is the same road to the habitual summit finish at Pla d’Adet, a wide but steep road which averages 10%. There’s a brief flat section at Espiaube and the junction to the “new” road. From here on the road is exposed on the mountain-side and steep for the most part but irregular, the slope changes every few hundred metres, the kilometre at 6.7% on the profile above is more like 3% for a while before going to over 10%. There’s a tunnel towards the top and it’s uphill all the way to the line.

The first three riders on the line gain time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds.

In the mix?

The Contenders: the breakaway has a good chance again, a climber can win today but ideally they’ll need help from a team mate to launch them into the day’s move and it’s another “wheel of fortune” scenario to see who can get into the right move. The stage also overlaps with the mountains contest with double points available at the HC-rated finish today, 40 points for first place. So Wout Poels (Bahrain) and Nairo Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic) come to mind, the same for Michael Woods (Israel). Remember the Tour has been here before and Quintana won then.

Ineos might still want to get Richard Carapaz onto the podium in Paris. He’s fourth overall but likely to lose time in the Libourne TT, so he needs to gain time on Vingegaard and Uràn in the next two days and easier said than done. Or do the team also try and get a stage win by sending riders ahead. But who? None of them look to be in obvious form to take the stage.

Miguel Angel Lopez (Movistar) is a long shot but suited to long steady climbs deep into the third week. Sep Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) can climb for a double stage win but could be guarding Vingegaard, plus the cold weather isn’t ideal. Esteban Chaves (Bike Exchange) has had a quiet Tour so far but is suited. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) is probably better suited to sit tight today in order to recover for tomorrow but can still feature

Tadej Pogačar makes a safe pick but his UAE team are unlikely to mow down the breakaway so any GC action is likely to happen behind the stage win battle. But if the break can’t form quickly or its a hectic stage he’s in with a chance.

Should be an exciting day!

I hope one the GC crowd just think “**** it” and pull some crazy move on Pog, they won’t but it’d be great

Today is going to be huge I think. Potential of crosswinds on the flat (or “flattish”) bits early on
which might impact the breakaway, green jersey competition is now very close again thanks to the ability of Matthews & Colbrelli to climb and pick up intermediate points. Ideal scenario would be if a large break that did not contain Matthews or Colbrelli got away and snaffled all the points, otherwise DQS are going to have to control things enough that Cav can contest the remnants of the points.

KOM is very close, lots of points on offer today!

Yellow is not close but 2nd – 6th will need to sort themselves out, I imagine Pogacar can just sit there and follow wheels. Ineos need to work out how to release Carapaz because towing the entire bunch of favourites along isn’t working.

That final climb is the opening leg of an Ultramarathon – the Grand Raid des Pyrenees. Can confirm, it’s a brutal climb!

Wonder if anyone will pull themself forward off a motorbike a la Rafal Majka a couple of years back 😉

Please let’s have a bit of GC drama today, even if it’s for 2nd and 3rd

That final climb is the opening leg of an Ultramarathon – the Grand Raid des Pyrenees. Can confirm, it’s a brutal climb!

I’ve only ever done Peyresourde out of that lot, I’ve stayed in Luchon a couple of times. Stunning area. The weather there still isn’t great by all accounts. Yesterday looked pretty miserable at times.

Reminder its an early start today, already off, though I guess it wont be too exciting for a while…

Hint of echelons 😀

Pierre Rolland holding up the “French attack on Bastille Day” tradition!
Bless him.

Kruijwijk has stepped off! another lonely diner table

Today is going to be huge I think

I think it’ll be the top 5 CG contenders sat behind a line out of various teams’ climbers all nervously eyeing each other while nothing of note happens…

Do you know why he abandoned?

commentary were suggesting injury (he did crash earlier and had a bashed up hand)

team say illness

Just adding my thanks to @lunge for the daily posts!

cruel ol’ sport

Interesting ISN on the front, cigars out for unrecoverable application error

Interesting ISN on the front, cigars out for unrecoverable application error

Trying to pull back the breakaway for Woods to contest KOM? They’ve got a job on their hands there, it’s over 8′ gap!

I imagine DQS will be fairly happy that the bulk of intermediate sprint points will be swept up by the break, only leaves 9, 8, 7 etc points for 7th placed onwards.

that’s quite the crosswind, DQS edging towards the front.

Once again, the day is just playing into the hands of Cav to stay in the race isn’t it…

Nice and not crazy for a good chunk of it, then he can cruise (sort of) up the remainder with the team and get inside the time limit.

guess he’s hoping the GC battle doesn’t kick off until the final climb, if it starts on the Peyrsourde it will make it much tougher day for him

Well he’s still in the peloton – what is it, 10km to go until the intermediate?

I reckon it’ll be a day of Ineos riding themselves into the ground, Carapaz looking around wondering where on earth his super domestiques have gone, Uran following everything Carapaz does, Vingegogo (Kelly stylee) attacking Pog with 500m to go and ultimately **** all actually happening in GC

I reckon it’ll be a day of Ineos riding themselves into the ground, Carapaz looking around wondering where on earth his super domestiques have gone

Ineos need to change their game but they’ve historically been terrible at having any sort of Plan B. Very much an all-eggs-in-one-basket approach.

Well he’s still in the peloton – what is it, 10km to go until the intermediate?

NOt sure it matters TBH, as long as he stays on until Paris and does even OK in the 2 sprint stages, he’s got no chance of losing the green. I reckon he’d basically have to be outside the points for the green to be in danger and that’s clearly not going to happen on the sprint stages unless he went down.

Ineos need to change their game but they’ve historically been terrible at having any sort of Plan B. Very much an all-eggs-in-one-basket approach.

Their main issue is with the likes of Pog, Lingegogo, Uran etc can just hang with them in the wheels, do no work and follow their leader. The whole approach is just try and grind down the rest of GC, but when the rest of GC are better than your supers you’re basically screwed with that approach.

With the added bonus that Pog can timetrial them all into the ground, already has a lead that will require a major implosion or crash to lose and just doesn’t need to do anything other than sit in; unless he feels like a bit of flexing and can then pop a few seconds into them on the final ascent to totally demoralise them all.

unless he feels like a bit of flexing and can then pop a few seconds into them on the final ascent to totally demoralise them all.

Did you see yesterday where he just made that casual point, sprinting to the front of the group of leaders that came over the line together and just looking at them all. No time bonus or anything, it was purely a show of “I’m strongest”.

I’d quite like to see that come back to bite him, it’d be amusing to see a total blow-up.

Carapaz looking around wondering where on earth his super domestiques have gone

He’ll have to look a long way back to find Kwiatkowski, he’s very unexpectedly off the back.

now Tao going backwards

suppose it’s good news for Simon Yates, if wants to go for the Giro again next year he won’t be up against Bernal again.

@crazy-legs yeah it was quite amusing, I can’t see him blowong up that badly as he seems to know just how to measure his efforts to perfection.

nice that the Bora rider from the break offered up a bar (first to yellow then someone else) once they were reeled in. G towards the back of the peloton.

Rainbow jersy dropped, and Richie Gate, G is back at the front oops spoke too soon kiss of death etc 😉

G is back at the front

Ever so briefly – as soon as that slight rise in pace happened, he went.

Pog looks about 12, carapaz 43

Notice UAE are using rim brake bikes today… Disc brakes to wait another year for their first win?

is it the only way to get down to 6.8kg ?

Looks like Ineos wanted to up the pace then, but UAE told him to b*gger off!? Guess they want to drop other 2nd place hopefuls

KABOOM!

Uran distanced at last, maybe there’s hope for a Carapaz podium.