If Sunak does go through with this 500 handout (not sure he will but…) to make up for the cost of living crisis – Labour are going to look dumb as **** again.

This is where lack of ideology is constantly catching them out. They have the strongest reason yet for supporting nationalising utilities and Starmer and co turn their backs on it.

Folk on the radio in tears about not being able to afford things is natural Labour territory. But the only-go-after-incompetence mob have nothing to offer because they don’t have the capacity to reconcile what is going off in the big picture.

There is no way out of a crumbling market system than to make it work with investment from the government £££. The backer of last resort.

When things get this bad tinkering a la Vat (5%) offers nothing – it’s just slowing the collapse.

This is where lack of ideology is constantly catching them out. They have the strongest reason yet for supporting nationalising utilities and Starmer and co turn their backs on it.

You’re saying Starmer and co should see strong pragmatic reasons for supporting nationalising utilities?

Hand out cheques couldn’t save trump

Partly because they don’t fix the problems that caused the cost of living crisis.

When things get this bad tinkering a la Vat (5%) offers nothing – it’s just slowing the collapse.

And Labour’s policy is more than just VAT cut (Peston had good analysis of lab v con plans and lab obe was far superior for helping lowest income households) was targeted support for lowest income houses with windfall tax on oil co.s, overall cost to government was £2bn

This is where lack of ideology is constantly catching them out. They have the strongest reason yet for supporting nationalising utilities and Starmer and co turn their backs on it.

Mrs Daz was freaking out yesterday when she got a quote for a fixed rate gas contract. £600 a month compared to the 200ish we pay now. That’s more than our mortgage. Starmer’s vat cut isn’t even going to touch the sides. Neither is Sunak’s handout. The energy market needs fundamental, radical reform or people are going to be out on the streets. It’s a massive open goal for labour, and yet they’re fiddling round the edges with stuff that will make no difference.

Labour have proposed two obvious things that this government can do NOW, rather than just go for “this is what we’d have done if we’d won in 2019”. This gives the government two choices… broadly do what Labour have proposed, or don’t. Labour can then either say “the government have taken our advice… why not cut out the middle man come the next election and put us in government”… or it can say, “the government are refusing to implement these simple and proportionate measures due to some weird dogma”.

Fundamental radical reform is indeed needed. But showing up the current government as not even being prepared to patch over the cracks, as millions of voting households fall through the cracks, this year, right now… keeps the conversation about this government, not talking about possible ideal solutions that could be implemented over the next 15 years.

[ My own take? We need to pay more for gas, not less. So I don’t want to see VAT dropped, but I do want a way for tax rates to vary based on the renewable properties of the energy used. But more expensive fossil fuel burning needs paring with a huge overhaul and rebalancing of income and wealth… something I wish Labour would have front and central in a proposed programme for future government… but proposing that from a position of being in opposition would result in an even bigger Tory majority at future elections, in England at least. ]

[ Also… Insulate Britain! ]

The energy market needs fundamental, radical reform or people are going to be out on the streets.

The wholesale price of gas is an international figure, the UK market suffers from the lack of storage but the price of gas is not just based on UK factors.

We need to pay more for gas, not less.

Yes, we do. But there’s paying more and paying more. If political parties (all of them) don’t tackle the crazy inflation in energy prices then there’s going to be major trouble, and we’ll see the likes of Farage et al using it to boost their populist nonsense.

Mrs Daz was freaking out yesterday when she got a quote for a fixed rate gas contract.

The standard capped variable rate will be the cheapest tariff.

But there’s paying more and paying more.

Yup, which is why short term patch up jobs (of the type Labour have proposed, they don’t fix anything, they just get people though the next 18 months or so) are needed, to prevent genuine suffering in the short term. But the answer isn’t to make gas cheaper long term… it’s to make energy cheaper, and/or make sure people can afford the energy they need (unpopular changes to taxation, incomes and wealth that mean that no one is choosing to eat or heat).

Hand out cheques couldn’t save trump

Partly because they don’t fix the problems that caused the cost of living crisis.

Absolutely. But then there’s no long term plan on offer from either party. That’s the point.

Yes, we do. But there’s paying more and paying more

Definitely.

We are all suffering from the idea that one part of the market subsidises the other, but can’t deal with this massive wholesale shift.

It simply doesn’t work chasing the cheapest tariff constantly. It’s actually an inefficient model in itself.

Capitalism always has its victims in creating this particular market.

But the answer isn’t to make Gas cheaper long term… it’s to make energy cheaper, and/or make sure people can afford the energy they need (unpopular changes to taxation, incomes and wealth that mean that no one is choosing to eat or heat).

The answer is to make gas progressively more expensive and electricity cheaper, which could be achieved by rebalancing levies, taxes and non-commodity costs. At the moment, both commodities are at record highs – we’re sometimes seeing electricity 50p/kWh in the commercial sector for electricity, compared with 16p a year ago.

Absolutely. But then there’s no long term plan on offer from either party. That’s the point.

We are in the middle of a shift in energy sources both in the UK and internationally. We are going electric but have strong gas demand currently, rest if the world is dumping coal and going to gas and electric.

Market for gas is tight not helped by a significant proportion of the natural resources being in Russia.

It was always going to be difficult, we just didn’t realize it or discuss it sufficiently.

As for long term plans they are there COP etc but we have a technology gap for replacement of gas for heating in UK housing stock. We have a building industry that is poorly regulated, attracts cowboys for large initiatives and can sometimes be counter productive such as all the issues with cavity wall insulation.

ransom, right idea, wrong approach, what we need to be doing is investing massively in renewables, reversing the stupid block on onshore wind and trying to decouple our selves from the international markets. We’re in a better position geographically than most to tray and achieve this. If the money spent on the oil wars in the last few decades had been spent on home grown power generation we would not be in this mess.

There’s not much we can do to cushion people against the current issues.

Dazh how much has are you using???? I thought our combined gas / electric of £165 per month pre price increases was high usage.

reversing the stupid block on onshore wind

Destroys peat moorland with the access tracks and is akin to shooting yourself in the foot for net carbon

ransom, right idea, wrong approach, what we need to be doing is investing massively in renewables,

Obviously we need to do that, but it’s not the point I was making. Decarbonisation requires us, amongst other things, to switch from gas to electricity-based heating. This requires action on the supply side, demand side, and market regulation. At the moment, investment in decarbonising heating is hamstrung by the large price difference between gas and electricity: you can just about make running costs achieve parity with heat pumps in well insulated buildings, but without any saving, 3-4x capex is always going to be hard to justify.

Dazh how much has are you using???? I thought our combined gas / electric of £165 per month pre price increases was high usage.

A lot! Our combined bill in the winter is ~£300/month due to a drafty central heated farmhouse with a gas powered aga which costs about £6/day on it’s own. The aga is going asap so that will help a lot. After that it’s going to be greater use of blankets and woolly hats. Or we might sell up and move into a new build. 🙂

Burn some wood Daz or get a heat pump?

Labour could just have a simple policy such as “Where privately owned utilities are failing we will take them into public ownership”

Also another policy of a MASSIVE investment in renewables. Tidal power please!

Also Sunak writing of that Covid fraud money should be as big as Boris partying. Should be 3 questions every PMQs. People still go on about Labour selling the gold FFS.

rone
Free Member

If Sunak does go through with this 500 handout (not sure he will but…) to make up for the cost of living crisis – Labour are going to look dumb as **** again.

Well 1, £500 doesn’t make up for the cost of living increases.

But 2, how does it make them look “dumb as shit” when they set the agenda, constantly chase the government on something which they repeatedly deny is even an issue, and then the government finally, grudgingly admits they’re right and does something about it? There’ll always be some people that give all the credit to sunak but that can’t be helped but changing government police is pretty much the acme of opposition excellence.

As long as you shout about it. Don’t be sportsmanlike, you’ve got to be an absolutely savagely bad winner and gloat. Tories constantly slag Labour policy then nick it and they’re just not good enough at that fight.

I agree with 1) naturally but it will have a positive effect with the electorate.

2) with respect I don’t know what you’re saying. Labour are messing with a nonesensical vat deduction.

There’s already a difference in the two approaches. And neither are satisfactory.

Sunak deserves zero credit for anything. He’s a simple idiot with a Brexit supporting track record, a messed up eat out to help out offering and total misdirection and lies on how the government finances things.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
REFUK: 3% (-1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 24 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Jan

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) January 24, 2022

Yeah, you read that correctly – that’s the Tories gaining 4pts.

Labour could just have a simple policy such as “Where privately owned utilities are failing we will take them into public ownership”

Based on rail it’s already conservative policy

I’d actually back it as a policy as long as they destroyed shareholder value prior to nationalisation so the UK taxpayer isn’t shafted again. Where the the companies are successful leave them be.

Yeah, you read that correctly – that’s the Tories gaining 4pts.

That poll says it all. What a confused bunch of people the electorate are. What could possibly be the driver behind the Tory +4 when they are in the shit everyday, what is the driver behind Green -2 (what have they done?)
Polls really do seem a bit pointless don’t they.

Polls really do seem a bit pointless don’t they.

Absolutely.

But not sure what other interim metric we can use!

Everything is always weighted against Labour. So much sticks in people’s heads – that ridiculous Gold selling off non-story still proliferates today despite the facts.

Tories create that much havoc people just let it go. Almost to the point of boredom with excess.

People need inspiring now more than ever.

We’re fatigued as a nation – post pandemic anxiety making everything difficult to plan for. (I know the
Pandemic is not over.) Corruption and sleaze Tory trademarks. Labour using a 30 year old model to tempt the electorate.

Everything needs rewiring for 2022. And start smashing these libertarians that have moved the debate to masks and migrants.

I still see we are in a huge macro-economic shift now. Markets unstable, things crumbling. It will take a long distance lens to see what is really happening.

Nationalisation will be inevitable. (Back door or front door) It always is when things are in trouble to this extent.

Tax and spend makes no sense any longer in any debate in terms of funding. Q/E not currently being reversed. Interest rates on a strange precipice.

All to play for.

But we will keep playing the pre-pandemic play book to preserve the status quo.

Latest YouGov poll puts Labour 6 points ahead of the Tories.

Voting Intention: Con 32%, Lab 38% (26 – 27 Jan)

The reason Labour appears to have such a small lead over the Tories isn’t that the Tories are still polling reasonably well it’s that Labour are so weak.

At 38% Labour are 2 points less than they got in the 2017 general election which they failed to win.

Yesterday’s Survation poll did put Labour on 40% but it also put the Tories on 35% so the Labour lead was only 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/28/voting-intention-con-32-lab-38-26-27-jan?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention

Latest YouGov poll puts Labour 6 points ahead of the Tories.

Shouldn’t they be 20 points ahead by now? 😂

This is without a shadow of a doubt the worst govt I can remember. SKS should be smashing it.

He is tame and a bit too forensic. Go for the jugular.

Boris staying in post could be a good thing for SKS though.

SKS should be smashing it.

I remember the centrist dismissal of the 2017 improvement in vote share was that May was a terrible Tory leader. With a much worse opponent Starmer can’t get anywhere near the 2017 figures. It’s pathetic.

I think some are mistaking the Labour turnout in 2017 as an endorsement for Corbyn and his policies. It had nothing to do with that, we were on the Brexit precipice and people voted in vain hope that a hard Brexit could be avoided.

That’s why the 2019 numbers are a more accurate reflection of what people thought of Corbyn all along. I voted Labour in 2017 and didn’t in 2019. I always thought Corbyn was a moron, I was not alone.

I remember the centrist dismissal of the 2017 improvement in vote share was that May was a terrible Tory leader. With a much worse opponent Starmer can’t get anywhere near the 2017 figures. It’s pathetic.

No, silly. 2017 was nothing to do with Corbyn and 2019 was everything to do with Corbyn.

It had nothing to do with that, we were on the Brexit precipice and people voted in vain hope that a hard Brexit could be avoided.

So in 2017 people voted Labour “in vain hope that a hard Brexit could be avoided”, but in 2019 when May had been replaced by Johnson, who was far more committed to a hard Brexit than May, they voted for him instead of Labour?

And in 2017 labour’s policy was to respect the brexit result whilst in 2019 it was to hold a second referendum. Either inkster’s analysis is bollocks or remainers were idiots.

ernie, the vain hope had turned to despair by then.

Re polling Difference is surely that there’s no ukip to eat the tory vote, lib Dems are getting a few but not enough to help.

And red wall collapse was due to 2 factors equally, one was wanting brexit over, 2 was corbyn being elecroral poison

Both of those things are no longer major factors

He interesting to see what dickgate does for numbers

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+1)
CON: 31% (-3)
LDM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 9% (+2)
SNP: 4% (-1)
RFM: 1% (-1)

Via @IpsosMORI, 19-25 Jan.
Changes w/ 3-10 Dec.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 27, 2022

Best Prime Minister Weighted Polling Average:

Keir Starmer: 37.1%
Boris Johnson: 28.4% pic.twitter.com/TrAid5nQvx

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 27, 2022

ernie, the vain hope had turned to despair by then.

So you didn’t vote for the only party who could have stopped brexit, whilst at the same time being in despair about brexit? It seems I was right on both fronts in my earlier post.

“So you didn’t vote for the only party who could have stopped brexit,”

There was no party who could have stopped Brexit, that was the hope that died in 2017.

I knew Corbyn was heading for a landslide loss in 2019 and didn’t want to put my name to it.

ransos has it.

Difference is surely that there’s no ukip to eat the tory vote

So why are the Tories polling so badly then?

The only reason Labour are currently ahead in the polls is because Tory support is so low.

Labour’s average for the last 7 polls of the last week is 39%, which is less than they managed in the 2017 general election. But unlike 2017 it now puts them ahead of the Tories.

There was no party who could have stopped Brexit, that was the hope that died in 2017.

Labour wasn’t proposing to stop brexit in 2017.

I knew Corbyn was heading for a landslide loss in 2019 and didn’t want to put my name to it

And do what instead?

ransos has it.

So taking the piss out of your muddled thinking explains your position?

“So why are the Tories polling so badly then?”

The polls currently reflect the public’s position with regards integrity, not policy.