Scottish politics thread

The exact same one that happened in 2014. You don’t have a legal problem. You have a “not enough people are convinced independence is a good idea” problem.

How do you know?  There’s no proper mechanism to determine that answer.

ETA: this is a classic example of how obtuse, abstruse (and dare I say caboose) grievance politics about legalistic constitutional toss sucks the air out of Scottish politics.

What is it that worries you about providing a mechanism to ask that question?  The only real reason to resist having a well defined mechanism is the possibility that someone might use it.  Ironically that feeds the reaction you are trying to avoid.

This is a total non-issue, a circlejerk that makes absolutely sod all difference to the actual lives of ordinary people.

Actually think you are wrong.  It matters to a lot of people that there should be a mechanism.  Even many people who want to stay in the union would much rather that it was a willing partnership and we had a well defined set of rules if it is going to happen, Brexit has highlighted the division that can happen when 52% of votes say one thing but they only represent 1/3rd of the people.  The also highlight the risk of vague questions and no ratification of the answer.  Those are things that worry unionists or middle ground people far more than died in the wool nationalists.   Nationalists believe, rightly or wrongly, that independence will mean better lives for the next generations of ordinary people.

There is already a totally transparent pathway to independence that has been tested and worked fine.

I’m not sure if you are being forgetful or beligerent.  The “pathway” has been attempted twice since devolution.  On the first occasion it “worked fine”.  On the second occasion it was refused by Borris.  Thus there is no pathway.  If there was a defacto pathway I’d agree with you – but Westminster has made very clear that reserved matters are not automatically going to be agreed to just because Holyrood has a majority to request it.

PCA – just to reiterate I do generally enjoy your contributions and you are ruddy good at pushing me and others to evidence our statements.

Well, sure, but referenda have no particular constitutional status in this country, and if the requirement for approval was 50% or 60% of the electorate, then the status quo would never change.

PCA – on the one hand you say referenda have no constitutional status and on the other you say there is a clear transparent route to Indy following the 2014 model… which is it?

FWIW (as the proposer of the 50% rule on this thread!) I’m in Squirellking’s camp – I support Indy, but I don’t want to see Indy in a country that’s massively divided.

50% of the electorate is a ridiculously high barrier when a 70% turnout is high.  Thats just saying you can never have it.  Dictatorship of the minority.

When Sweden and Norway split in 1905 it was 99% of an 85% turnout = 84% of the electorate.
Good Friday Agreement – NI 81% turnout – 71% for = 57% of the electorate.
Good Friday Agreement – ROI 56% turnout – 94% for = 53% of the electorate.
Estonia from USSR (1991) – 83% turnout – 78% for = 65% of the electorate.
Latvia from USSR (1991) – 87% turnout – 75% for = 65% of the electorate.
Lithuania from USSR (1991) – 85% turnout – 93% for = 79% of the electorate.
Ukraine from USSR (1991) – 84% turnout – 92% for = 77% of the electorate.

When it really matters people will turnout and vote; the challenge for political leaders is to make it compelling for them to do so.  If you only manage to mobilise 70% of the electorate you really need to get 71.5% of them to vote for to get 50% of the electorate “for” something.  Turnout in the 50’s was 80% you’d need 62.5% support then…  If that seems really difficult you’ve not told your story well enough.

Looks like the SNP in Westminster will be down ~£1m in short money as a result of their electoral collapse – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl4y82em7e6o. Combined with their £800k loss last year and no reportable donations in 2024 things must be looking pretty bleak for Swinney and Co.

Well, they have a camper van to sell. With hindsight, you need to ask, what on earth was Sturgeon thinking when she said she wanted a £100k+ camper van? Even at that time their finances were not particularly healthy. That they had to borrow £107k from her husband, which, surprisingly, is around the reported cost of the camper van shows the folly of spending so much on an unneeded item.

50% of the electorate is a ridiculously high barrier when a 70% turnout is high.  Thats just saying you can never have it.  Dictatorship of the minority.

Even higher with a 60% turnout, based on this ‘barrier’ it seems to me that Westminster doesn’t have a mandate in Scotland.

Even higher with a 60% turnout, based on this ‘barrier’ it seems to me that Westminster doesn’t have a mandate in Scotland.

I suppose if we’re going to entertain the argument that turnout below 60% indicates a lack of a mandate, then the real story here is that the Strasbourg didn’t have a mandate in Scotland. Turnout in the 2014 Euro elections (the last proper election for a full parliamentary term) was only 33.5% in Scotland. Even the pointless 2019 Euro elections (when EU membership had been the top talking point for a year) didn’t crack 40%. The implication of this argument is that the Scottish electorate did not legitimise European parliamentary democracy.

But it’s a silly argument and it should be ignored completely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_(European_Parliament_constituency)

@alanl: how dare you suggest that Ms Sturgeon was in any way involved in the camper van affair or the loan to the SNP? That was 100% the dealings (if they even happened) of her husband, who is a completely separate person, and the very idea that she might have known of it (because he might have mentioned it over the cornflakes or she would have spotted the big shiny object on her elderly mother-in-law’s driveway) is reprehensible.

It’s much like the Justice Clarence Thomas position in the US, where it’s his wife that got all the gifts from political donors, and he just happened to have accompanied his spouse as a +1.

https://people.com/ginni-thomas-accepted-payments-judicial-activist-report-7489373

110 votes from an “electorate” of 223 was enough to take Scotland into the Union. I’d say that hardly constitutes any sort of majority ?

You’re going back 316 years to find a grievance to complain about now? I knew Scottish Nationalists were keen on European-style politics but I assumed they meant the civic nationalism of the Nordics, not Balkan grudges and mangled history. What’s the Gaelic for “pet stotina godina pod Turcima”?

Whoosh!

“how dare you suggest that Ms Sturgeon was in any way involved in the camper van affair or the loan to the SNP? “

Haha, Yes, you are right, she knew nothing about anything in the Party, I should believe her when she says that. And the election defeat was nothing to do with her too, of course it wasnt. I didnt know her and the husband spoke over cornflakes, I thought she was somewhere else all the time, so no chance to ask why £100k+ had gone out of the account, and why that van was parked up at the relatives – who wants to visit the M-i-L when you have a Country to run?

What’s the Gaelic for “pet stotina godina pod Turcima”?
Since you ask it’s
Còig ceud bliadhna fon na Turcaich
Blink of an eye really

alanl
Free Member

Well, they have a camper van to sell. With hindsight, you need to ask, what on earth was Sturgeon thinking when she said she wanted a £100k+ camper van?

TBF I reckon the explanation is basically true tbh, it could have worked out really effective to have a vehicle like that, if covid restrictions had carried on further. I’ve not seen any actual evidence of misuse ie that it was bought for personal use not for genuine party use, just nudge nudge wink wink- that all seems to be just about where it was parked, and since it had to be parked <somewhere> why not there, where it was free. But £100k was ridiculous in any case, clearly they could have got a vehicle to do the same job for much less. And I’m not talking about building their own conversion in a smiley transit.

And in the event, it turned out to be no use at all, and admitting to that would have been embarassing especially considering what an excessive spend it was, so they hoped to just park it up for a while and then sell it quietly at a loss and try to avoid looking like idiots. And instead, they made it even worse, and made it from “glaring mistake that plays perfectly into doubts about competence and fiscal management” into “glaring mistake that also now can look like deliberate misuse of funds for personal gain”. And that’s double stupid, it just never had to happen.

There’s no version of events where they come out of it looking good but with zero evidence of actual wrongdoing despite all the digging so far I think the likely explanation is the stupid one not the crooked one.

“TBF I reckon the explanation is basically true tbh, it could have worked out really effective to have a vehicle like that, if covid restrictions had carried on further.”

Seriously?  Nicola Sturgeon whose official residence is Bute House and who stays in top class hotel would camp out in a van going round the country.  Apart from anything else the security issues are horrendous.

For a campaigning vehicle? Not big enough and no need to own it. They just do as every party does and hire a big coach for 6 weeks.

If it was for use outside election campaigns why was it parked the whole time at the MILs as far as we know?

As for whether buying it was crooked? No matter what they planned it was crooked if it was bought with part of the missing £600k.

” zero evidence of actual wrongdoing despite all the digging so far”  Apart from the evidence which was enough to charge Mr  Sturgeon and report him to the COPF?

But £100k was ridiculous in any case

The only thing ridiculous about £100k campers is that it’s no longer ridiculous

I reckon the explanation is basically true tbh, it could have worked out really effective to have a vehicle like that, if covid restrictions had carried on further.

You don’t seriously believe the suggestion from anonymous sources in the SNP that “the campervan was about trying to have an ability to campaign while complying with the rules. It would have acted as a mobile campaign room. It would mean not having a need for hotels and minimise mixing.”

I’ve not seen any actual evidence of misuse

Have you seen any actual evidence of genuine use or even an intent to use it in a genuine way? It was parked on private property, was not used in 2+ years, was not marked with any SNP signwriting, is patently and unsuitable for the supposed purpose, was not sold after the pandemic despite the SNP’s dire financial position…

Well the fact is wasn’t used surely suggests a lack of misuse? If they were pissing off every other weekend then sure, bang to rights but if you’re going to embezzle for personal gain you don’t buy a whacking huge white camper, park it in a close relatives drive then never bloody use it. You can get seasonal pitches for that.

And yes, her official residence might be Bute House but she still grew up in Dreghorn.

if you’re going to embezzle for personal gain you don’t buy a whacking huge white camper, park it in a close relatives drive then never bloody use it.

You yourself just said they (Murrell and Sturgeon…?) were “double stupid”. But not stupid enough to do that? I suppose we may find out when it comes to trial.

Just to be clear: do you genuinely believe that there was an intention for Sturgeon to drive around Scotland using the campervan as a “mobile campaign room” and not stay in hotels during election campaigns?

There’s no version of events where they come out of it looking good but with zero evidence of actual wrongdoing despite all the digging so far I think the likely explanation is the stupid one not the crooked one.

this

” zero evidence of actual wrongdoing despite all the digging so far” Apart from the evidence which was enough to charge Mr Sturgeon and report him to the COPF?

As far as has been made public thats nowt to do with the camper

Just as well Murrell has been charged or the SNP apologists would still say there is no evidence of criminality despite £600k of donations disappearing into a black hole.

Want to take a bet on any criminal sanctions ever appearing?  Pastry based of course 🙂

You yourself just said they (Murrell and Sturgeon…?) were “double stupid”.

Citation please, with username attached. ?

This is why we need a proper quote system.

That aside…

Just to be clear: do you genuinely believe that there was an intention for Sturgeon to drive around Scotland using the campervan as a “mobile campaign room” and not stay in hotels during election campaigns?

I don’t see why that’s such an outlandish idea. During lockdown it was a pain in the arse doing anything, why does a mobile office with self contained eating and sleeping arrangements sound so hard to believe? It can also be driven by anyone unlike a bus which would present it’s own issues.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it WAS a daft purchase in retrospect but I can see the reasoning. At least they were trying to keep to their own rules.

edit – didnae work

“At least they were trying to keep to their own rules.”

Not very sucessfully.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/18/police-warns-nicola-sturgeon-for-breaking-face-mask-rules

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/22/nicola-sturgeon-apologises-for-covid-rule-breach-at-funeral

https://www.scotsman.com/health/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-accused-of-bad-example-after-not-wearing-face-mask-at-prince-philip-memorial-3634013

Probably too busy deleting her whatsapp messages to concentrate on her own rules.

Citation please, with username attached. ?

Sorry – I do apologise.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it WAS a daft purchase in retrospect but I can see the reasoning.

Ach well, I’m sure that there will be plenty of internal emails with different people transparently discussing whether it was a good idea or not for the party to buy it or not, what the spec should be for party use, where to procure it from etc. That’ll be easy enough to find on the email servers and this will all turn out to be a big misunderstanding…

Burden of proof runs the other way  🙂  You need to find proof of wrongdoing.

Like when it was proved Mathieson had falsified his expenses claim but Swinney still backed him?

Thats not quite what happened but yes that was stupid.  As ever its the cover up thats the real issue.  Mathieson was utterly stupid.  Optics from Swinnney were poor.  What Swinney was objecting was NOT the sanctioning or defending the action but that the disciplinary process was not valid.  Stupid thing to do.

Burden of proof runs the other way  🙂  You need to find proof of wrongdoing.

Well, a prosecutor does – but those of us outside court can draw our own conclusions.

But in any case when, hypothetically, a senior officer of an organisation is proven by prosecutors to have spent that organisation’s money on something that had never been bought by the organisation before, and was never used by the organisation, and was kept at the disposal of that officer, and that purchase was not transparently discussed inside the organisation, and was not properly documented, and there is no evidence to contradict any of this despite that kind of evidence being easily available in the normal course of things…then the court is entitled to draw an adverse inference from all of those circumstances. Or not, as it chooses!

And you know all that stuff?  You should supply the info to police Scotland.  they might find it handy 🙂  Not sure what crime you think has been committed in all that as well.

come on PCA – you are usually more accurate than that 🙂

Not sure what crime you think has been committed in all that as well.

That’s your classic common law embezzlement offence – which is the offence that Murrell has been charged with. This is an absolutely unremarkable scenario that happens all the time in organisations all over the place constantly.

And you know all that stuff?

Oh, no, I don’t know all of it – hence the word hypothetically. Of course, any sort of document (or even credible witness statement) that proved that the campervan had really been transparently purchased for the party would be immediately fatal to an allegation of embezzlement in relation to the campervan. COPFS would have to immediately abandon that allegation, it would be dead in the water. And you’d have thought that kind of thing would be pretty easy to dig up between emails, purchase orders, invoices, payments data, insurance policies, property inventories and all the rest. But we’ll see.

Want to take a bet on any criminal sanctions ever appearing?  Pastry based of course 🙂

COPFS and Police Scotland seem to have a pretty reasonable success rate in prosecuting politicians charged with offences in recent times:

-Natalie McGarry, convicted

–

. “And you’d have thought that kind of thing would be pretty easy to dig up between emails, purchase orders, invoices, payments data, insurance policies, property inventories and all the rest.”

Not sure record keeping is an SNP strongpoint.

“The UK Covid inquiry is struggling to understand how Nicola Sturgeon took key decisions during the pandemic because her “gold command” meetings were not minuted, the inquiry has heard.”

“Dawson said the inquiry had asked the Scottish government for the minuted records of gold command meetings and from its emergency resilience group meetings, only to be told no official records were made.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/30/no-minutes-kept-of-nicola-sturgeon-gold-command-meetings-covid-inquiry-told

“Want to take a bet on any criminal sanctions ever appearing? Pastry based of course :-)”

How about cash based. Loser donates £20 to Singletrack.

COPFS will take proceedings against Murrell in the next year?

And you know that the embezzlement charge relates to the camper van?  come on PCA – yuo usually are much more accurate than that.  As far as I am aware we do not know what its in relation to

And I still bet there will be no criminal sanction over this  Bet you a nice mutton pie

come on PCA – you are usually more accurate than that 🙂

When?

I never bet for money.

My offer is not being charged or proceedings being taken but that there will be no criminal sanction ie he will not be found guilty of a criminal offense

Want to take a bet on any criminal sanctions ever appearing?  Pastry based of course 🙂

Couldn’t get the list in before the edit guillotine fell, sorry.

COPFS and Police Scotland seem to have a pretty reasonable success rate in prosecuting politicians charged with offences in recent times:

– Natalie McGarry, convicted Aug 2022

– Humza Yousaf, convicted Feb 2017

– Margaret Ferrier, convicted Sep 2022

– Bill Walker, convicted Aug 2013

– Mike Watson, convicted Sep 2005

– Tommy Sheridan, convicted Dec 2010

Jim Devine, Eric Joyce etc were convicted in England.

Obviously the big exception to the above is the unsuccessful prosecution of Alex Salmond – but sexual assault cases are inherently much more difficult to prove than fraud, and an impartial observer of that trial wouldn’t come to the conclusion that it was a baseless or spurious prosecution at all.

I’m happy to criticise Police Scotland and COPFS (see, for example, their total institutional failure in relation to Police Scotland officers choking a black man to death in the street and then using racist tropes to justify it), but it hardly seems to be the case that they’re in the habit of bringing unwarranted prosecutions of politically influential people in Scotland.

what does that have to do with Murrell?

what does that have to do with Murrell?

Sorry – my ninja edit added a new last paragraph that elaborates a bit more.