Scottish politics thread

And the last seat goes from SNP to LibDems. Confirming the Nats down to single figures. The grimmer end of expectations as Nicola put it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqe6y0jvmrdo

I’d sort of overlooked that Joanna Cherry lost to Scott Arthur in my old seat, he was my first ever internet troll! I went to uni, got given the internet, instantly went and started wasting hours on it. Joined a bunch of mailing lists, one of them being the Iain Banks list culture@busstop.org. Dr Scott was a lecturer at the same uni and also on that list (he always liked to drop in the doctor, he’d literally say “In my experience as a doctor” and the like and not mention that he was a doctor of civil engineering). And he was just relentlessly full of shit, a totally dishonest contrarian who didn’t even care if he won, he just enjoyed being a prick. He was pretty good at it- he had all the word games, he could switch from school bully to poor victim in a second, contradict himself then blame you for being too stupid to understand him, all that stuff. I thought it was just one weird person with some sort of disorder, rather than being an actual internet thing, how innocent I was back then…

Anyway, he took that attitude into politics too- he made his name as an SNP BAAAAD Labour unionist, got on the council, was most noteworthy for blaming the SNP for stuff the Labour council had done. Did that mathematically impossible thing of going on the question time audience multiple times and getting his questions asked each time, and one of those he pretended to be an SNP member and went off on a frothing rant about how all unionists were traitors and should leave the country. He only got found out because he was so pleased with himself he had to tell people how he’d made the SNP look bad and got away with it, and tbh he probably didn’t understand why he got in trouble for it.

Bloody excellent lecturer though and in recent years he’s been a good councillor and seems to have left the whole “total shiteheel” thing behind him once he realised that like in his day job he could actually do positive stuff with his skills and succeed on merit, he’s been really strong on transport etc. Good luck to him.

Ha that’s a brilliant story Northwind!

He sounds like a bit of a power hungry **** then?

And he was just relentlessly full of shit, a totally dishonest contrarian who didn’t even care if he won, he just enjoyed being a prick.

Are you sure he’s not on STW now?

Are you sure he’s not on STW now?

If that was aimed at me, then as a doctor, I resent the implication.

recent years he’s been a good councillor

I’m not sure I’d go that far

as a doctor

Just checking: Doctor of what?

Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists.  You reckon that’s going to happen?

This aged well! lol

On his second full day as prime minister, Keir Starmer is setting off on a tour around the UK intended to reset relations with the devolved governments. He will be in Scotland this evening…

“And that begins today with an immediate reset of my government’s approach to working with the first and deputy first ministers because meaningful co-operation centred on respect will be key to delivering change across our United Kingdom.

“Together we can begin the work to rebuild our country with a resolute focus on serving working people once again.”

Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour to co-operate given the mandate for its platform given to it by voters.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/07/keir-starmer-labour-uk-general-election-scotland-wales-northern-ireland-visit-latest-news

It will be i interesting to see if we get more than kind words.  Labour and Starmer have shown nothing but contempt for Holyrood.   Its gonna take a lot to get trust back

Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour to co-operate given the mandate for its platform given to it by voters.

Careful PCA………your inherent bias is appearing to show.

The SNP and Sturgeon and Yousaf and Swinney have shown nothing but contempt for Westminster.  It’s gonna take a lot to get trust back.

I have finnally had time to look at the scots results a bit more.  Much as I suspect6ed the vagaries of FPTP have really mucked it up with labour the beneficiaries hugely.

Labour 37 mps on 35% of the vote

SNP 9 on 30%

Lib dems 6 on 10%

tories 5 on 12%

Reform 0 on 7%

Greens zero on 4%

Now we know folk vote differently  in a PR election but lets just see what that would bring to HOlyrood

Labour 45 msps

SNP 39

Lib dem12

Tories 16

Green 5

Reform 9

65 for a majority

Thats your labour / tory lib dem unioninst coalition right there.  labour will never work with the SNP or Greens even tho the reverse is not true.

Labour cannot get close enough to a majority without the tories..

Gonna be interesting.  I really think Scottish labour are stupid enough to do it.

Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour

thi8s is just nonsense.  Labour hate the SNP for kicking them out of power.  There is no tribal hatred going the other way.  Nnne.  Since labour lost power in Scotland they have behaved disgracefully.

I missed out low turnout as well.  Low turnout does rather show the lack of enthusiasm for labour and the SNP

we know folk vote differently  in a PR election

There is no tribal hatred going the other way.  Nnne.

“What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.”

Anyway, more interestingly: is there anything that the SNP is willing and capable of working with Labour on in Westminster to serve the population of Scotland better? If yes, what is it, specifically?

And how will the SNP cope with no reportable donations in Q1 2024 and a £1 million reduction in public funding to the party? The next big donor that comes along is going to have a lot of influence over the party’s policy base. Hopefully they’re choosy enough not to open the door to proxies of the Kremlin (as we’ve seen with nationalist and populist parties elsewhere in Europe, including the Tories).

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24435540.tough-choices-ahead-snp-party-set-lose-900k/

Anyway, more interestingly: is there anything that the SNP is willing and capable of working with Labour on in Westminster to serve the population of Scotland better? If yes, what is it, specifically?

All those areas of policy where they have the same or similar.

SNP have clearly said they will work with Labour and welcome a labour government in Westminster.  Scottish labour work with the tories rather than the SNP even cheering on Tory wins and also asking labour voters to vote tory in some seats.  This gave May 10 scots tories and saved her government which led to Brexit.  labour in Scotland just shoot themselves in the foot time after time.

Love the usual smear that the SNP are the same as the far right nationalist and populist parties.  The SNP are neither

“its not where I come from as a person, its about where we are going as a nation”

Labour and the SNP (and the Lib Dems) go after a lot of the same votes, that’s the big issue between them, add in the big ticket item of independence and you have them on opposite sides for that, the SNP need it to keep their supporters happy, Labour are the other way, could they govern together, yes, but the politics of the parties will have them trying to trip each other up, PR isn’t going to help Holyrood if there’s a spread of MSPs at the next election.

Labour in Scotland still has strong associations with the Orange Order if you want to talk ‘tribal’ politics- their turnout was probably low because they’re over in Ireland setting fire to things.

As for the Herald being a reliable source of independent journalism  – making out the SNP are in any way aligned to populist rightwing parties kinda undermines your argument.

How many list seats at Holyrood would Reform get with their 7% share?

If the votes are as cast in the GE – which of course they will not be reform would have 9 as above.   What I did was just simply put the % vote at the GE and gave a seat share as if the same vote was the holyrood list vote

Over simplistic analysis of course but probably indicative

Starmer and Swinney met at Bute House today. quote from Swinney in the Guardian:

”I was pleased to welcome Sir Keir to Bute House so soon after his appointment as UK prime minister.

We continued our conversation about areas of shared interest. I believe there is an opportunity for collaborative working that can make a difference to people’s lives and I hope to work with Sir Keir’s new government to deliver progress for the benefit of people in Scotland.

Following our talks, I am confident we have established the foundation for a productive relationship between our two governments based on renewed respect for the devolution settlement.”

the usual smear that the SNP are the same as the far right nationalist and populist parties.  The SNP are neither

I didn’t say that – I said that populist and nationalist parties in Europe had accepted Kremlin-linked funding. Russia has a sustained policy of making funds and resources available to political parties and personalities that can destabilise domestic politics in hostile countries.

It’s not a coincidence that George Galloway and Alex Salmond were paid for their gigs on Russia Today for years, and that Sputnik set itself up in Edinburgh with its first local hire being a nationalist activist.

Given the SNP’s dire financial management, its current institutional weakness, and its predilection for being suckered by rich businessmen (see: ferry fiasco), they’re ripe for an approach by spivs and spies. Hopefully they’ll be able to fight both off.

SNP have clearly said they will work with Labour and welcome a labour government in Westminster

Have they? I looked around and couldn’t find any sign of a welcome.

Labour in Scotland still has strong associations with the Orange Order if you want to talk ‘tribal’ politics- their turnout was probably low because they’re over in Ireland setting fire to things.

Rofl! Yeah, right. That’ll be why the most Catholic, Jewish and Asian constituency in Scotland – Glasgow South – just elected a Labour MP. A shame, really, I bet Anas Sarwar would fit right in at LOL Pollokshields. Do you think he’d play a fife or the big bashy drum?

Have they?

Yes – repeatedly many times over decades.  Long established policy.  Work with a labour westminster government, oppose a tory one

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24375338.swinney-snp-will-work-labour-government/

Just one example – now usually yo0ur knowledge if not your conclusions are OK but on this one?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18025133.sturgeons-conditions-supporting-labour-government/

Labour cannot get close enough to a majority without the tories..

But they don’t need a majority. They can form a government on their own or in another coalition with, say, the LibDems.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/former-orange-order-leader-to-stand-for-scottish-labour-at-council-elections-3596841

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15270068.orange-order-elected-councils-labour-tory-members/

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17800171.labour-politician-fire-taking-top-job-orange-order

If you read the links above there does appear to have been a recent connection  between Labour and Orangeism. I also remember  some stories about Labour councils allowing Orange marches to go ahead, despite a record of violence but not allowing independence marches to go ahead in the same area on a different date and with no record of violence.

That said I come from I can remember times when there was a strong connection between catholicism  and Scottish Labour or at least it was widely believed that there was a strong connection.

The Rose and the Sash

Yes – but even with the lib dems on these % they are too far from a majority for a minority administration.  They would be 8 short.  Thats just not going to work.  I guess they could steal SNP policies and challenge the SNP to vote them down but I do not see a labour / lib dem alliance that is 8 or so seats short of a majority being able to get a programme thru.  the first thing they try that the SNP does not support they will lose the vote.  The only way labour would be able to get a programme thru is with a unionist grand alliance including the tories.

All speculation of course but I think this is highly likely.

The obvious coalition would be labour / SNP but labour will never do it.  Look at the shenanigans they went thru to keep the SNP off councils.  In Edinburgh 2 labour Councillors were suspended for refusing to go into coaltion with the toriees ( they deny its a coaltion but they gave tory councillors jobs in exchange for votes)

disgusting behaviour from labour.

Holyrood’s going to be really interesting. I think Labour now they’re in power might actually be able to overcome their derangement about the SNP and cooperate with them rather than going “people who agree with most of what we think and will work together with us to deliver what we want? We must never cooperate with them in any way, they sound like RIVALS THAT MUST BE DESTROYED. Time to make a deal with people who eat babies instead, that’s definitely sensible”

I also remember  some stories about Labour councils allowing Orange marches to go ahead, despite a record of violence but not allowing independence marches to go ahead in the same area on a different date and with no record of violence.

Can you be more specific about that? The big marches over the weekend were in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, where the councils are SNP and Labour respectively.

I think pointing at 2 or 3 councillors out of 1226 councillors across the whole of Scotland is a bit weak to say there are “strong associations” between the Orange Order and Labour.

Yes – repeatedly many times over decades.  Long established policy.  Work with a labour westminster government, oppose a tory one

Artfully ignoring the bolding, there, TJ, and betraying the SNP’s tribal hatred of the Tories!

The obvious coalition would be labour / SNP

Why is that an obvious coalition? The SNP fundamentally disagrees with the Labour Party about the role of government and the priorities for the Scottish government. If they didn’t, they’d be basically the same Party and they wouldn’t compete in elections. You can’t simultaneously believe that Labour and Tories are basically the same (as you have, many times) but also say the SNP and Labour are obvious coalition partners. The constant thread through your complaints about the Labour Party is a disbelief that they won’t simply agree with the SNP and do what the SNP wants.

the first thing they try that the SNP does not support they will lose the vote.

Unless the Tories, Greens, Reform etc also support that actual piece of legislation. It’s not too difficult to come up with policies that would be supported by the SNP and/or Greens and others that would be supported by the Conservatives/Reform. I don’t think a formal coalition would be necessary.

If they work with the tories in Holyrood to freeze out the SNP like they do on Edinburgh council it will be the end of them in Scotland.

Sure if they are only a few seats short then a minority administration can work but if you are 25 seats short?  Not a chance of getting a programme thru particularly a finance bill.  On the numbers above even SNP lib dems and greens are not a majority – and labour will not work with the greens anyway

PCA – on everything but the constitution there is barely a fag paper between labour and the SNP – both left of centre social democratic parties.  But labour would rather work with a very right wing tory party.  Labours adherence to the bain principle ie just oppose everything the SNP do even if its labour policy has cost them dear.

Scotroutes – its all surmise of course but thats the sort of way I see the holyrood election going.   Labour being too far short of a majority to govern without tory help, SNP and greens the same

“Can you be more specific about that?”

No ,I meant to put that in my post above.

“The big marches over the weekend were in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, where the councils are SNP and Labour respectively.” I take it you are referring to Orange marches here.

To be clear I am very much against the OO but I support their right to march peacefully.

Sure if they are only a few seats short then a minority administration can work but if you are 25 seats short?  Not a chance of getting a programme thru particularly a finance bill.  On the numbers above even SNP lib dems and greens are not a majority – and labour will not work with the greens anyway

you are putting an awful lot of thought into a scenario based on a different election, with a different electorate (16-18’s, EU citizens etc!) that uses a different voting system.  Not to mention that there’s plenty of time for SNPs troubles to get worse, or perhaps better; labours honeymoon to be not so rosy, or have resulted in exciting shoots of hope; or the tories to have imploded further under a new leader (in WM and Holyrood), not to mention the potential for reform to fracture.

It almost certain won’t be a majority government of any party in Scotland as the system is essentially designed to make that unlikely.  Most people I talk to want to see compromise and cooperation and will welcome politicians behaving like adults rather than tribal bullies.

I don’t see any issue with a minority coalition running Holyrood.  It happened before If it was a choice of an SNP or a Labour MSP being elected as FM the Tories would either abstain or vote for Labour. THere is no need for a formal Lab/Con coalition.  The Conservatives just need to avoid supporting the SNP.  A repeat of the Lab/Lib govt with supprt from other parties on an issue by issue basis.

Thereafter the potential problem  is getting a finance bill through.  If that hurdle can be overcome thereafter it is just a case of proposed legislation having the support of a majority of MSPs. The govt will need to work by persuasion and compromise rather than just bulldozing stuff through because they have a majority. That may actually lead to better govt than a strong minded individual surrounded by a small clique being able to push through any laws they wanted whether good or bad.

IRC / POly – I agree with what you say basically and yes its surmise and guess right now – but “The govt will need to work by persuasion and compromise” – not if you are 25 short of a majority and not if you have spent years alienating everyone and doing your best to wreck everything.  Persuasion and compromise and co operation from Scottish labour?

Yes this is how holyrood is supposed to work but labour have refused to let it work like that.

If they work with the tories in Holyrood to freeze out the SNP like they do on Edinburgh council it will be the end of them in Scotland.

I’m not going to claim this is right or wrong as I have no idea how things will pan out. Just an observation that a very similar thing was said about Labour during/after the Indy referendum.

which reduced them to one MP and a huge loss of MSPs.

A repeat of the Lab/Lib govt with supprt from other parties on an issue by issue basis.

Labour and lib dems had a majority between them.  On current voting % they will be 8 – 10 short now.  Huge difference   SNP minority governments had tacit green support and were close to a majority