Scottish politics thread

I’m no great fan of the SNP but I do find myself in complete agreement with what they’ve been saying about how Westminster needs to listen to what the Scottish people are saying. And last night the Scottish people made their feelings quite clear.

Did they?  Over 40% of them were either so scunnered with politics they didn’t bother voting, couldn’t be bothered to organise a postal vote, or couldn’t be bothered to chase up the admin chaos of postal votes (would be interesting to see the % return of postal votes requested compared to normal!).  If you were in the SNP excuse factory you’d be saying those people were least likely to be those who were desperate for change.

That’s more people who were either disenfranchised or shrugged and said it will make zero difference anyway than actually voted for labour!

About 30% still voted for SNP despite the seats telling another story.  If you add votes for Indy supporting parties the number of votes for labour and number who have Indy as a headline are almost neck and neck.   If you do the totals across all parties then those who want the status quo and those who want a major shift (including the Lib Dems federalism in that) in the settlement for scoltand – its far from a clear cut message – and this election really wasn’t fought on an Indy or Unionist agenda so I’m not sure what the Government should take from it, but any government that ignores the views of 1/3rd of the population (whether indy or unionist) is on a hiding to nothing.

The situation is the same across the country and thats the real challenge for politicians – who to get people to care.

The postal votes fiasco is likely to have affected all parties equally. The other people who didn’t vote (apart from those who were ill etc) don’t deserve to have their opinions taken into account. No matter what their views.

The SNP put independence on page one of their manifesto in big bold type. They’ve also been going on for a few years now about this being a de facto referendum. The simple and straightforward fact is that the majority of Scottish voters (leaving the Lib Dems out of it) voted for parties opposed to a second referendum. As they have done in every (I think) election in the past decade. Yet the SNP keep saying that Westminster are ignoring the Scottish people. When they plainly aren’t.

That said there’s part of me would sort of love Starmer to call their bluff and give them a referendum this autumn. But that wouldn’t be democratic.

Over 40% of them [didn’t vote]…If you were in the SNP excuse factory you’d be saying those people were least likely to be those who were desperate for change.

If you’re saying the 40% of the electorate that didn’t vote should be counted as people that “don’t want change”, then between them and those that voted Labour and Tory it creates an overwhelming majority of voters that don’t want any change to the Union.

Which really shows nothing but what a barrel-scrapingly terrible, nonsensical, anti-democratic excuse that would be…if anyone were to make it. ?

Over 40% of them were either so scunnered with politics they didn’t bother voting, couldn’t be bothered to organise a postal vote, or couldn’t be bothered to chase up the admin chaos of postal votes

I would be curious as to how much the choice of the election date also made in Scotland.

A lot of people would be heading off on holiday as the schools finish,did they sort out a postal vote in time?

Along with Voter ID,did it put many people off?

I am sure more than few ‘floating/soft’ voters may not have bothered.

The SNP put independence on page one of their manifesto in big bold type

The problem is they didn’t say how they were going to achieve it.  Getting an overwhelming majority and then asking for a referendum has been shown to not work so why do it again?

There are at least two indy supporters on here who didn’t vote at all.

I voted Green in a constituency where if the Green and SNP votes were added together they would have won.  I have no faith that the SNP has a viable plan to deliver independence so I might as well let people know I still want green issues front and centre.

SNP is due some time in the wilderness.  I’m pretty happy with the result (SNP could have won 50+ seats and it would not have advanced the indy movement).  A grand Coalition of unionist parties gaining power in the next Scottish Parliament would also be a good thing.  Let’s finally see the solutions to all the problems Labour and the Tories have been gleefully pointing out for the last 10 years.

Swinney is a good person to mind the shop in the meantime.  I’m fairly certain he’s fully aware he’s taking one for the team for the next couple of years.  No reason for anyone of the younger generation to burn their political capital on a no hope parliament.

Let’s see how content Scotland is with the Union after a Labour Westminster government continues to ignore Scotland and the grand coalition realises it’s easier to complain than to solve problems when you don’t have access to the levers you need to successfully govern.

Or maybe this has been the high point and indy support will dwindle from here on in.  The problem for unionists is the No voters continue to leave the electorate while new Yes voters are turning 16 (or 18) every day.

Is Starmer going to remember Scotland (and young people) exist?  I wouldn’t hold my breath.

“Yes voters are turning 16 (or 18) every day.”

Firstly,  people change their opinions as they get older.  Secondly the 2014 indyref was lost partly because 16-24 year old voters said “No!”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

Do yourself a favour and don’t google any recent polling by age group.  You’ll only get upset and today you should really be celebrating the fact that independence is dead because no one could be bothered voting SNP.

I did my celebrating last night. After the SNP ignoring the once in a generation referendum it is now dead for a generation.

You keep telling yourself that.

You’re going to have a last hurrah at the next SP elections.  Then I’m afraid it’ll all be downhill from there.

Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists.  You reckon that’s going to happen?

I’ve not looked at Indy polling for a while, found myself on the recent Redfield poll and was abit surprised to see Labour neck and neck with the SNP for Holyrood voting intentions.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-26-27-june-2024/

However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, Labour has regained a narrow 1% lead over the Scottish National Party in our constituency voting intention poll.

The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, fall to their lowest ever vote share (14%) in our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll.

Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 1-2 June in parentheses) are as follows:

Scottish Labour 34% (+2)
Scottish National Party 33% (–)
Scottish Conservatives 14% (-3)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Reform UK Scotland 6% (+2)
Scottish Green Party 3% (+1)
Alba Party 1% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)

I notice Alba lost all their deposits. The alternative SNP party doesn’t seem to picking up many votes on a platform of accelerating the path to Independence.

Sturgeon says nothing to do with her. Maybe her memory failing her again.

Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists.  You reckon that’s going to happen?

What specifically do you mean by this?

As Bruce says, the easiest way for Labour to crack on and take the wind out of the SNP’s sails is to resolve some of the societal problems that motivate people to want it. If we end up with a better, fairer, more prosperous society as part of the Union, I can probably live with independence becoming a non-issue in my lifetime. The unionists have the upper hand now – time to put their money where their mouth is…

What specifically do you mean by this?

What ditch_jockey says.

Labour have a ridiculous majority and in a couple of years they are going to be the leaders of a coalition in Holyrood.  There will be no more excuses, that if only it wasn’t for the Tories/the SNP Scotland would be great.  Or at least, not quite so shite.

Personally, I don’t think things are going to improve much.  The same fundamental issues that hamstrung the SNP will still be present and who exactly will the unionists blame then?

But who knows, maybe Labour will do something radical.  Personally, I won’t be holding my breath.

“History will show that major opportunities were squandered by Nicola Sturgeon and Ian Blackford”

Joanna Cherry turns her fire on the SNP’s former leaders, as she loses her Edinburgh seat to Labour’s Scott Arthur – overturning a near 12 thousand majority.#GeneralElection2024 pic.twitter.com/axyai2ItIS

— Forth 1 News (@Forth1News) July 5, 2024

First time I’ve seen this interview. Pretty much sums it up for me I think.

in a couple of years they are going to be the leaders of a coalition in Holyrood.  There will be no more excuses, that if only it wasn’t for the Tories/the SNP Scotland would be great.

What does that specifically have to do with needing to “remind Starmer that Scotland exists”?

OK, one example.  Scotland needs immigration.  England doesn’t.

Or rather, Scotland wants immigration, England doesn’t.

Starmer has a choice to make.  Is he going to run scared of Reform or of the Scottish voters?

I’d like to see him pull off his mask and reveal his true intention of reversing the damages done by Brexit.  However, I don’t think that’s very likely given that he went out of his way to reiterate yet again there would be no reversal in his lifetime and no concessions to a closer alignment with the EU.

Or maybe he’ll allow Scotland to set it’s own immigration policy.  It would be the obvious solution.  How likely do you think that is?

Or is your argument simply that Scotland is just like any other region in the UK and should just sit down and be quiet?

The immigration problem is that over half a million immigrants came to the UK last year. Why do only a trickle come to Scotland? Scotland wants immigrants but immigrants don’t want Scotland.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/migrants-preference-for-england-over-scotland-gives-us-the-gift-to-see-ourselves-as-others-see-us-murdo-fraser-4134897

I’m not convinced an article by Murdo is going to swing many opinions not already fixed.

Why do only a trickle come to Scotland? Scotland wants immigrants but immigrants don’t want Scotland.

Economics…now tootle off and educate yourself.

So, according to you an Murdo Fraser, Scotland’s taxes are too high and that’s why migrants don’t want to come?  That’s the closest thing I can find to a suggestion of what needs to be done in the article you posted (by the way, well done for posting an article written by a Tory on today of all days).

I’d say that this kind of proves my point.  If the UK as a whole has too many migrants but Scotland doesn’t have enough, it doesn’t say much about the chances of a Labour government easing restrictions so that more migrants might get lost and find themselves in Glasgow instead of London.

I’d say the main issue is that the Scottish Government doesn’t have the tools to allow the required investment.  The good news is that Labour (and probably even Murdo Fraser) will soon be able to prove me wrong and finally reveal the solutions to the problems they have been so keen to point out.

Unless you’d like to suggest how to attract more migrants to Scotland yourself?  Something beyond, Get The SNP Out?

Economics…now tootle off and educate yourself.

Not exactly an enlightening response, from what i’ve seen and read, it’s a genuine issue, and ‘economics’ doesn’t answer the question being asked.

that’s enough od an explainer, plenty of reports online regarding why migrant workers choose to work down south where they can be paid more

Not exactly an enlightening response, from what i’ve seen and read, it’s a genuine issue, and ‘economics’ doesn’t answer the question being asked.

Massive investment (comparatively) in the South leads to a great deal more opportunities.  Also, people like to settle where they already have connections so if more people you might already know live there then you’re going to prefer living there.  It’s a Virtuous circle.  Likewise, areas that have been ignored end up in a vicious circle.

From the article:

Far too few end up coming to Scotland. Indeed, of the 12 nations and regions of the UK, Scotland currently sits ninth on the table in terms of attracting migrant workers, ahead only of Wales, Northern Ireland and the North-East, and behind every other part of England.

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the North East are unlikely to be a priority for Labour, anymore than they were a priority for the Tories.

I would welcome being proved wrong on this.

from other sites

England:

Milder weather. More similar to the most European countries
More job opportunities because of British government investment
Better paid jobs (~25% more than the same job in Scotland )
Cheaper. England is closer to Europe so import is much cheaper than to Scotland (if I want to ship something large from the EU to Scotland they usually ask for an extra £600-800)
Cheaper services(plumbers, joiners, builders, gas engineers, etc..). In England is a huge competition between those jobs and they keep prices low. I have seen that some things were up to 6x more expensive.
Shorter and cheaper flights to the rest of Europe.
lower taxes Scotland

he UK gov and parliament have done nothing but focus on London and the South East since forever so people are more attracted to those areas as they have a higher standard of living that the rest of the UK.

With that England has larger communities of immigrants so naturally that will attract people to come and live in their communities or join friends/ family.

It’s odd that Murdo can never bring himself to mention what you get for the extra tax you pay.

“Milder weather. More similar to the most European countries
More job opportunities because of British government investment
Better paid jobs (~25% more than the same job in Scotland )
Cheaper. England is closer to Europe so import is much cheaper than to Scotland (if I want to ship something large from the EU to Scotland they usually ask for an extra £600-800)
Cheaper services(plumbers, joiners, builders, gas engineers, etc..). In England is a huge competition between those jobs and they keep prices low. I have seen that some things were up to 6x more expensive.
Shorter and cheaper flights to the rest of Europe.
lower taxes Scotland”

Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?

Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?

Don’t think anyone of them would be removed but you knew that, didn’t you?

Problems generally don’t get ‘removed’.  They get mitigated and one of the mitigation factors might be to not  be forced to apply the same visa requirements as a country that is actively trying to reduce the number of migrants.

But I think it’s unlikely the obsession with the Union will allow Labour to consider anything like this.  Keeping the Union stable is the only thing the Westminster parties care about.  If it damages the Scottish economy so be it.

But Labour now have the power to prove me wrong so let’s see if they choose to do so.

Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?.

The way the arithmetic and tribalism works its a likely outcome.  Murray would rather tories than SNP.

With two years to go, I’d say it’s not impossible that a Labour / LibDem coalition government was possible. It wouldn’t necessarily have to have a majority either. We also know that the Scottish Greens have no qualms about supporting a Labour government.

That Fraser article sounds like it was dictated from the back seat of a taxi on the way home from the golf club. It doesn’t do much in the way of facts.

The UK is basically two separate countries when it comes to immigration: SE England, which has very high levels of immigration and, and the rest. Scotland is right in the middle of the rankings of “the rest” in terms of where immigrants in the UK live. It is heavier on EU immigrants and lighter on Rest of World immigrants.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/where-do-migrants-live-in-the-uk/

I don’t agree with the assumption that Scotland needs more immigrants or with the attitude that people are chattels that can be “imported”. But even if it did, the Scottish Parliament already has the powers it needs to make Scotland a more attractive place to live and attract more workers from the pool of ~70 million people in the UK and Ireland who could move to Scotland tomorrow, let alone some of the 5.5 million UK citizens that live overseas.

Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?.

I’d like to see a Holyrood with no party holding an overall majority, which is how it was designed to be in theory. Ideally with Labour holding most seats, but with the SNP, Liberals and Tories holding a good few seats too. Also the Greens if they ditch the odious Patrick Harvie and get back to core green issues rather than the nonsense he’s got them obsessed with.

Then we’d have a Holyrood that Starmer is keen to work with, and where Scotland sees the benefits of the country as a whole getting rid of that Tory government. Ideally a Holyrood where centrist policies dominate and where running the Scotland well is a bigger concern that anything else. Fingers crossed.

Kenny.  Thats when we will get a tory labour unionist coalition

Next Scottish parliament election will be no later than May 7th 2026. So the  preparation for campaigning will begin soon. Real campaigning probably christmas 2025 .  My guess is that Swinney does not have the time to turn things around ,even if he has the desire to do so.

What’s the bets that Dross stands for Reform in 2026?  The very thought of it  “gies me the boak “

“Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?.”

Unlikely. I think if Labour were the largest party a LibLab minority coalition is  more likely as pre 2007 But a Labour/Tory coalition could hardly govern worse than the SNP/Green one did.

Poor infrastructure with the Greens opposed to upgrading roads.

DRS scheme.

Discouraging North Sea investment.

Weighing up every decision on how it affects independence.

Expenses fiddler getting full backing of FM

Party chairman charged with embezzlement.

Why insist on discussing the Scottish Government’s current performance instead of an awful 2026 scenario that I’ve just invented?  ?

The immigration problem is that over half a million immigrants came to the UK last year.

Seems too much chat these days about immigration, but none about emigration.

The latest estimates on migration from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that in 2023: 1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000

Not saying anything, not disagreeing. Just showing figures.

Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?

Check the posts, in your excitement to froth you may notice I wasn’t replying to a comment regarding visa’s

Seems too much chat these days about immigration, but none about emigration.

Well, yeah – the “chat” is about immigration because net immigration to the UK is what we are experiencing right now. If there were net emigration to the UK, we would be discussing that – but there isn’t. If emigration and immigration were roughly equal, there would be nothing to discuss at all.