Scottish politics thread

Going back up the thread a bit, what’s the point of dualling the A9? It’s rarely particularly busy and car use will have to drop dramatically over the next 20 years to prevent climate change so why waste money on it when we’re apparently struggling so much with health and education? You could invest a fraction of the money in sending goods by rail to Inverness which would dramatically reduce the number of lorries on the A9.

what’s the point of dualling the A9?

The number of deaths per year on what is a fairly lightly trafficked road.

The A9 is a weird inbetween design at present – it sort of needs to go one way or another – more like a motorway with separated carriageways, proper slip roads etc, or more like an A Road with roundabouts at intersections so that traffic is traveling slower at the places where accidents are more likely. At present it has neither of those features – it would be cheaper and easier and just as safe to do the latter but thats not particularly sexy and would feel like a backwards step

I*’m not generally in favour of road building but dualling the A9 is long overdue

Going back up the thread a bit, what’s the point of dualling the A9? It’s rarely particularly busy and car use will have to drop dramatically over the next 20 years to prevent climate change so why waste money on it when we’re apparently struggling so much with health and education? You could invest a fraction of the money in sending goods by rail to Inverness which would dramatically reduce the number of lorries on the A9.

Because its consistently an accident and fatality blackspot.   Many voters feel its important either because they want to make the journey 10 minutes quicker or wish to remain alive.  The option exists for alternative parties to present the argument that “there’s no point, we’re all doomed and should spend the money on health to make the misery more bearable” but I don’t think any of the big parties are arguing against it?

Goods vehicles make up a chunk of the traffic, but even if you removed them all you wouldn’t solve the A9 problem.  The bulk of the traffic is cars. You are kidding yourself if you believe car use will drop in the next 20 years – certainly not on routes like the A9.

They 100% should increase the goods by rail, not just to inverness but everywhere they can.  However moving goods by rail is not as slick as it appears.  The goods need loaded onto wagons (or into containers that get loaded onto wagons) and its not usually possible to do that at “the factory” to they are handled twice.  Then they need those wagons to be conglomerated into a train.  The whole reason a train is more eco is because one engine moves many wagons.  So you need a dozen or more wagons all ready to leave at the same time.  It needs access to the rail network and there aren’t that many trains between Perth and Inverness so that bit is easy enough.  But of course you’ve loaded the train in the central belt and that train needs to get to the quiet bit of the network, which is congested with passenger traffic.  A lot of freight moves at odd times because of this.  That might mean a signaller in Aviemore is going to be working extra hours to deal with two freight trains so they can move freely elsewhere on the network.  Then the train arrives in Inverness and has to be unloaded.  The good are inevitably not going to inverness so need reloaded on road vehicles for the final journey, so get handled again and take longer.  Tesco in Aviemore might go to Bathgate to Inverness – having passed the store within 200m and then be unloaded and driven back south.  Tesco in Ullapool can probably get its delivery quicker driving from Bathgate than loading, train, unloading and driving from Inverness.  Many deliveries will not be a single point-to-point like that either – they will be going round multiple shops/pubs/restaurants or homes/businesses/farms drop shipping as they go.  Then we have refrigerated loads, livestock, etc which are possible but even more time sensitive. Trains DO make sense to got from a port to a central hub, or between massive facilities; they could make sense for other uses but changing the way trains would work requires investment too.  Since many goods are also not starting/stopping in the central belt it doesn’t make sense unless you have logistics set up for some trains, or parts of trains to continue to london, birmingham, hull etc.

Why is the assumption that the solution to “health and education” is just to throw money at the problem?

Economically there will be an advantage to shaving X mins off the inverness-glasgow/edinburgh time too.  Its important that Scotland doesn’t just become about the central belt.  Economically building infrastructure is good for the short term (jobs) and the long term (interconnections drive economies).  Economic growth brings more £ to spend of hospitals and schools / teachers and nurses if that is what matters to you.

Inverness railway station is currently closed due to gas leaking from a waggon.

FWIW, Stobart run a daily Tesco train to Inverness. It passes by my house. Unfortunately it doesn’t stop, so I can’t get my messages 😉

On the point about independence seekers – i.e. those looking to redress Scotland’s democratic deficit – being as big a threat as Russia, China and Iran I was both appalled and cheered to see it.

Appalled by the clumsiness of lumping a legitimate, democratic movement in with international pariah states, and cheered at the recognition the movement is far from dead and way more than Nicola Sturgeon.

I really hope it ruined Dross’s day.

Nicola Sturgeon now claiming that it was trans rights abuse, not her impending arrest, that caused her to quit. I wonder if this means she’s feeling more confident about her own legal prospects and thinks she can realign history as a prelude to a comeback? Her successors haven’t exactly energised the movement.

https://www.politico.eu/article/scotland-nicola-sturgeon-trans-rights-abuse-pushe-quit-leader-snp/

1 The SNP is not the independence movement.

2 She was wise not to mention operation branchform

3 My opinion  Stranraer will win the SPFL before Nicola Sturgeon leads the SNP again.

More like abuse by trans activists not them getting abused.

Worker wins her tribunal after being sacked by Edinburgh Rape Crisis Centre for agreeing it was OK for some rape survivors to prefer being counselled by a woman. The tribunal describing the investigation before the sacking as

““[It] is unfortunately a classic of its kind, somewhat reminiscent of the work of Franz Kafka.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/20/edinburgh-crisis-worker-wins-tribunal-over-gender-critical-views

And latest poll has SNP 10pts behind heading for 11 seats.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24333290.labour-hail-bombshell-poll-putting-10-points-ahead-snp/

The SNP is not the independence movement.

It’s not the entirety of the independence movement, true, but it is the vanguard of that movement. I find the independence question stifling in Scottish politics. But in any case Sturgeon’s successors haven’t exactly energised the SNP itself, either. It might be a good idea not to discuss your husband and you being arrested…but if that’s the case don’t do interviews about why you quit and what was going on at the time. Only time will tell whether saying you stepped down because of abuse over trans issues is credible.

Galloway, Cameron, Salmond, Berlusconi and Trump all made political comebacks after people said they were finished. Why not Sturgeon – especially if she isn’t charged with any offences?

Predictions for Scottish seats in the election.

Labour  38

SNP 8

Tories 6

LibDems 5

^ **** hope not, Labour are **** utterly detestable

Where are those predictions from?

I can see my constituency going to Labour, it was close last time round with the SNP.

I looked at two separate polls for my constituency with radically different predictions.  I do not think enough granular work has been done to make any serious predictions.  I would be very suprised if that was the outcome

Arse – well that’s me bolloxed. I thought I’d have worked out where my vote should sit by the time the GE was called.

Struggling with SNP right now

Whilst a natural Green in many ways, some of their policies don’t sit well with me.

Labour’s independence  stance is totally off putting.

Pretty much my entire adult life I’ve lived in safe tory seats where my vote made sod all difference – now I don’t and I don’t feel the love for any particular party. Damn it.

I wouldn’t. People have short memories and the SNP fluffed the best opportunity for decolonisation in living memory by collecting ‘mandates’ and doing nothing with them. You know how the council elections in England and Wales earlier this year saw the tories trounced and the number of spoiled ballots at an all time high? Expect more of that. This is going to be an interesting but incredibly dirty election.

Im a bit like that convert.  Labour have made it clear they do not care in the slightest for scotland and are not going to do stuff UK wide the SNP government have done ( end to the 2 child benefit rules and fairer rentals)  and no increase in spending means no change in Scotland, SNP my local MP is a liar and carpetbagger. Labour candidate not much better last time around.  they are the only two with a chance in my constituency

Lib Dems remain beyond the pale for Carmichael the liar and the coalition, Greens have a slim chance but like you very disappointed in their perfomance at holyrood.  Tories are of course out

I doubt I will vote

Don’t think the SNP will lose that many, tories will always have their voters up in Scotland, it’s just Labour and SNP tend to battle each other for the same votes, hence why labour were decimated at the same time as the SNP grew in power, but a fair share will move their votes to greens or something else, so can’t see labour gaining loads from the SNP, although to be fair they can’t really do anything but gain some seats after recent times!

I expect 10 – 20 snp losses

On the other election thread SNP are stated at 18 seats from a electoral calculus which tends to be more accurate.  A lot of it will depend on how well “two cheeks of the same arse” sticks  Remember in the Rutherglen by election the labour candidate had to repudiate several key london labour policies to negate this.  They will not get away with that in a GE

As I’ve already said in this thread, I’m unlikely to vote – for the first time IIRC. I’ve been an SNP voter all my life but that’s been with a view towards independence. Sturgeon squandered the best opportunity and the party hasn’t fixed itself since then. I might encourage one of the smaller Indy parties if they’re standing in my constituency.

I reckon that lots of unhappy ex-SNP voters will hold their nose and put a tick against SNP come polling day so I take news of a 10% Labour lead with a pinch of salt.

Labour’s independence  stance is totally off putting.

Even the SNP have tacitly admitted that independence is dead in the water.

Agree, I don’t think snp losses will be as bad as has been predicted. I’m in lib/snp marginal, its lib by 200, I suspect it’ll remain lib but I think the snp vote could be boosted by the chances of taking it. Tories and labour are nowhere

I have no bloody idea who the Labour candidate is. IIRC she may or may not be a councillor? About as faceless as the usual Lib candidate (when they field one) but at least not chasing cockle pickers and being a generally nasty shit like the last Green candidate was.

SLab don’t really deserve a vote IMO, they’ve done little to redeem themselves or show they are capable of working in government. Then again look what SNP were fielding when they became the third party.

Don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.

I do feel that the swing to labour in Scotland will be less than in England ( and I don’t know about wales) due to the poor behaviour of Scottish labour and the lack of anything to attract the Scots voter to labour.

Its odd because Starmer made it clear he wanted to do well in Scotland but has no policies to attract votes in Scotland

Labour may have a difficult horse to ride, some of their vote has recently been of the orange and unionist variety. Others say approximately one fifth of those who say they will vote Labour in a Westminster election support independence it’s going to be difficult to appeal to both

Labour may have a difficult horse to ride, some of their vote has recently been of the orange and unionist variety.

That’s starmers core vote in Scotland,

Sure but nothing for Scots voters? surely they can think of something?  doesn’t have to be constitutional but could be.  Instead Starmer actively repudiates stuff that plays well up here like free prescriptions and university, like ending the 2 child benefit cap – and thats not to say actively refusing any movement on the EU or constitutional reform.

In Dumfries & Galloway. I will definitely vote – need for a change is too great not to. Just want the local Alaister Jack replacement Tory out, but not sure whether SNP or Labour more effective. Will probs go Labour as any small support for the change in Westminster needed, but worried Lab / SNP will split & let Tories in.

Others say approximately one fifth of those who say they will vote Labour in a Westminster election support independence it’s going to be difficult to appeal to both

Do they have to?

Labour gave us a parliament, they could take Indy votes with proper, equal, federalisation. Appeals to Unionists, nationalists and the generally spiteful.

I guess the problem might be Starmers only scottish MP is Murray – a rightwinger who prefers to see tories elected than SNP . the architect of the tory / labour pact

Even the SNP have tacitly admitted that independence is dead in the water.

There is a world of difference between saying “now is not the moment” and “this is not the path for us”.

I might be able to live with labour being agnostic on the subject…

Tj – I’m really surprised at you being not bothered to vote.  I had assumed you would be in the “if you don’t vote – you can’t complain” camp.

Labour may have a difficult horse to ride, some of their vote has recently been of the orange and unionist variety. Others say approximately one fifth of those who say they will vote Labour in a Westminster election support independence it’s going to be difficult to appeal to both

gordon – I don’t think it’s that hard to be a little more moderate and reconciliatory: “agree there’s a constitutional issue (the West Lothian question, Tam Dayell was a Labour MP) and propose a Constitutional Convention to see how it can be resolved – the aim to the unionist to put the Indy question to bed properly – it might also involve reviewing the Barnet formula or at least defining how it could be reviewed – winning English interest in discussing the issue; the aim for the Indy supporters to show you are listening and can provide a route to a vote if at some future point it’s got the momentum.   The only fear for doing this is tories stealing your votes by out Unionisting you – if ever there was a time you could feel safe that classic Scots Labour voters were not going to vote Blue it was surely now – but they need to win back the SNP voters or risk having to work with them anyway if their landslide is not as big as they hope.  But I think there’s more to appealing to Scottish voters than Indy.  If you want to convince Scots that Westminster elections matter you need to be able to talk about things that aren’t just devolved issues that matter in Scotland.  When you fall into that trap it gives the SNP a free pass to say “see they are focussed on England”.

Poly – My constituency will only be labour or SNP – so makes no real difference to the westminster government.  tories have no chance.

Given that I dislike both candidates for frankly poor behaviour its hard to vote for either.  Also at a national level I cannot vote for a brexiteer party which is what labour has become but the SNP MP lied to my face.  makes it tricky

maybe green?

I see your dilemma.  In similar shoes in the past I’ve voted for either the independent (and greens are probably in that class for WM) to try and help them get their deposit back as I think it’s important that no hope candidates do stand.  OR for the individual I think would most likely be a descent local MP and represent my personal issue on whatever crisis I might encounter.

whilst policy matters a lot to me – I always have in my mind I’m voting for the person – they can cross the house next week if they choose.

Please do vote tj, I understand your dilemma but Its important to exercise your vote. It’s difficult with.poor options in a FPTP, but I’d always find someone who I can give support too

Aye – it does not sit well with me not to.  I’ll look at the options and manifestos and make up my mind.

Labour have made it clear they do not care in the slightest for scotland and are not going to do stuff UK wide the SNP government have done ( end to the 2 child benefit rules and fairer rentals)

These are devolved matters. The SNP cannot deliver them in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and will not work with Labour because of their tribal hatred of Labour and pigheaded view on the union that goes against the views of the majority of the electorate.

It’s a weird position to be in favour of devolution and independence, but also to vote against a party because they won’t impose a policy you want in a country in which you do not live. 🤔

SNP will work with labour.  the two child limit is UK wide policy as is the bedroom tax.  Scotys government took steps to alleviate them

I will not vote labour because they are brexiteers and attempting to gaslight us over it.

According to the last-but-one leader, the only way the SNP will work with Labour is to impose SNP policies on Northern Ireland, England and Wales! Doesn’t sound very true to the principle of self-determination.

Sturgeon suggested she could lend her support to a Labour government if its policies were in line with the SNP’s own. “We see some parties in this election, not least Labour, putting forward policies the SNP have already implemented in Scotland,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/02/nicola-sturgeon-rules-out-coalition-but-backs-progressive-alliance

According to the last-but-one leader, the only way the SNP will work with Labour is to impose SNP policies on Northern Ireland, England and Wales! Doesn’t sound very true to the principle of self-determination.

interesting interpretation of what she said (and ignoring the barnet consequences of any such policy in rUK)