Osbourne says no to currency union.

Have they not worked out what happens when they visit? Did AS not offer to pay GO’s bus fare up here anytime he wanted to come. As an aside,I recently put up pictures of the main players in politics in the UK for my S4’s, Nick Griffin got more recognition that Cleggy. 😆

bencooper – Member

The Sudan situation is pretty different – for one thing we’re hopefully not going to have a long and protracted civil war.

But more importantly South Sudan’s only way to get the oil out (and hence get the 98% of government income it needs) is the pipeline through Sudan. Sudan has South Sudan over an oil barrel, and so can demand a share of the revenues.

That’s not the situation with Scotland.

Okay, so what’s to stop a region declaring independence every time a significant mineral resource is discovered?

@aracer – interesting, as I’ve said all along all these things are predicated on both sides being able to negotiate sensibly. I don’t think it’s going to be that dramatic, though – Scotland’s oil is important for propping up Sterling, Scotland is the rUK’s second largest export market, it’s in no-one’s interest for this to be acrimonious.

But we’ll see.

The Sudan situation is pretty different – for one thing we’re hopefully not going to have a long and protracted civil war.

Indeed, I am hoping for short sharp and decisive 👿

Hopefully in the event of a yes Scotland will take a reasonable amount of debt for a reasonable amount of oil. If Scotland does try and walk away from the debt I can see the UK delaying, possibly indefinitely, independence and that is going to cause one hell of a conflict.

But we’ll see.

I have to admit in a way I’m looking forward to you voting yes, just to see what does actually happen (and the reaction as people realise what they’ve actually voted for).

Scotland is the rUK’s second largest export market,

@ben, is this really true ? If that is the case the UK needs to get to work on some other countries. We cannot surely export more to 5m Scots than we do to the US or France or Germany.

BTW I looked up that ratio, appreciate its widely used but like all these single stat indicators used in isolation it can produce odd results. If you for example simple remove the top 1% of earners it will show a much better result but a country would be far worse off overall if that where to occur. France and Italy are fairer than the UK but much poorer.

(and the reaction as people realise what they’ve actually voted for).

Do you think that much will change for the Scots in the short term?

I’m expecting a fairly protracted & gruesome negotiation, which may possibly be enlivened by another European financial crisis.

[And in a similar vein, a Secondary school near me was arranging to become an Academy, two days before the ‘Academisation’ was due to be completed, on the 1st September, a load of Pikeys moved onto the playing fields.

Funnily enough the Academy plans have been put on hold whilst the nice County Council people evict the Gypos.]

@ben, is this really true ? If that is the case the UK needs to get to work on some other countries. We cannot surely export more to 5m Scots than we do to the US or France or Germany.

You need to appreciate the difference between GDP, and GNP (& apologies if you do already). Quite a lot of apparent rUK exports to iS would melt away anyway

I suspect that in the general divvying up of Company HQs (and their attendant Statutory reporting lines), and locations for production then Scotland will find that her GDP is not what was hoped or promised.

@ben, is this really true ? If that is the case the UK needs to get to work on some other countries. We cannot surely export more to 5m Scots than we do to the US or France or Germany.

I know, it’s surprising – just had a quick look and according to this the rUK sold £62.7bn to Scotland in 2013. According to this exports to the US were £31.7bn, Germany £27.5bn.

So actually I think Scotland is 1st unless you count all of the EU together. It’s more complicated also as those Guardian figures presumably include exports from Scotland.

seosamh77 – Member
Clegg, Cameron and milliband all not attending pmq tomorrow to come up to Scotland… Doesn’t look desperate in the slightest!

How on earth did Salmond arrange that? 🙂

jambalaya – Member
…I can see the UK delaying, possibly indefinitely, independence and that is going to cause one hell of a conflict.

Surely the UK has learned something from Ireland?

@blurty, yes I don’t think this really can be true. I remember earlier in this thread someone quoted a stat about New Zealand manufacturing (being high % of GDP) and when I looked into it the NZers count Electricity Generation and making Cheese from Milk as manufacturing rather than Utilities and Agriculture for example !

@ben £62 billion – that’s £12,400 for every man woman and child. For a 2+2 family that says they buy £50,000 worth of stuff from the UK every year ! It just doesn’t make sense to me.

£1240 – you’ve lost a decimal place somewhere

The debate above about who’ll take what share of the oil, the debt, where will companies currently based in Scotland base themselves etc etc is a really fundamental point… it appears that neither the Independence campaign or the Stay Together campaign have, at any time tried to:

a) negotiate a quantified proposition to present to the electorate, other than ‘independence’ e.g. before the vote, they should have agreed on things like Scotland will use xx as it’s currency, current oil reserves will be split x/y%, national debt will be split x/y% and presented this to the electorate as a proper proposal.
b) actually presented their figures/forecasts for things like taxes, interest rates, GDP, GDP per capita (stating the assumptions underlying their forecasts)

Instead, both campaigns seemed to have relied on ideology and emotion, nothing concrete which allows people to make an informed choice (and to hold their leaders to in 5/10 years time if it doesn’t work out well)

This is pretty poor of both sides of the campaign IMO – asking the Scottish people to make a massive, massive decision with an impact for a generation on Scotland and rUK but not actually set out in any detail what they’re actually voting for (or against)… just a vague promise that ‘things will be better…’

Best thing that can happen now IMO is for a No vote followed by massive pressure on both sides to be develop a concrete, quantified proposal, backed up with a detailed business case, to be voted on in a few years time…

broess +1.

Interesting article in the FT a few days ago about the implications of the oil ownership debate.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b609d594-97cc-11e3-ab60-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Cp5tmPjK

@aracer I had a billion as a thousand million, 10^9

Yep, and England population of 53 million. I did it in my head…

Edit: oh <slaps head> we’re talking about selling to Scotland (pop 5 million)

As you were – ben’s explanation probably makes the most sense

@ben £62 billion – that’s £12,400 for every man woman and child. For a 2+2 family that says they buy £50,000 worth of stuff from the UK every year ! It just doesn’t make sense to me.

I wonder how much the oil companies buy in terms of equipment, for instance? This includes business spending.

I’m not defending the figures, by the way, just reporting them.

@brooess, deliberate ploy by Westminster not to pre-negotiate. You can argue that it has backfired by why give SNP any certainty. Under no circumstances am I interested in another Yes/No referendum in Scotland, this is it. If there is a Yes I would like to see a UK referendum on our negotiating position questions like;

Should we enter into a currency union with Scotland ?
If Scotland does not take [ their fare share / 9% ] of the UK debt should they be allowed independence ?

@aracer – I was calculating how much the 5m Scots have to spend each to get to £62bn

@ben, yes that may be it. Its possible for example that all the cars imported into the UK are booked into the UK first ? Not sure. Anyway IMO there is no way Scotland could be such a major trade counterparty with just 5m people, I mean there are 350m Americans, 60m French etc.

(Vomits)Paging THM,paging THM.(vomits)
I have a serious question on something you have alluded to concerning post indy financial affairs,would you please contact me on my profile email.
(Not passing your add on to the cybernats either)

You cannot doubt Scottish talent – they are a formidable people. But they do not dominate the global stage as they once did. There will be a tough period of adjustment to get through, yes, but independent, living off their tax base, with dynamism and self-belief restored, they can do so once again.

But, first, they must make the right choices.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-an-independent-scotland-could-become-the-richest-country-on-earth-9096120.html

there is a direct correlation between the size of the state and the wealth of the people

🙄

Well there is. Whether that correlation leads to causation is something everyone can argue about – I think he has some interesting points about that.

Is there?
9: US, pop 318m
10: Canada, pop 35m
18: Germany, pop 80m

181: CAR, pop 4m
182: Burundi, pop 8m
183: Malawi, pop 16m

I thought it wasn’t about money?

Okay, it’s not a 100% correlation 😉

What % do you reckon, ben? 😉

If Scotland does not take [ their fare share / 9% ] of the UK debt should they be allowed independence ?

If Scotland doesn’t get a fair share of the assets we helped to buy with that debt, why should it be our debt? But that’ll all be worked out over the next couple of years, and probably not on a mountain bike web site.

@BigBut – your share of the debt paid for the hospitals and medical equipment, roads plus as the UK runs a budget deficit the debt paid for the salaries of all the state employees, their pensions, welfare payments etc

Agreed, we won’t solve anything here but it’s fun to discuss !

jambalaya – Member
…If Scotland does not take [ their fare share / 9% ] of the UK debt should they be allowed independence ?

“…should they be allowed independence..”

We are not the slaves or the property of the UK govt, so it is our decision. It’s called democracy.

negotiate a quantified proposition to present to the electorate, other than ‘independence’

Apart from the politics of this (ie Cameron not wanting to pre-negotiate for fear of looking like he’s accepted defeat), it’s hugely complicated and expensive, and makes little sense to put that effort in until the decision is made. I remember reading somewhere that the Czech Rep/Slovakia separation required 12,000 separate agreements and treaties. It doesn’t make much sense to go into all that for nothing.

We are not the slaves or the property of the UK govt, so it is our decision. It’s called democracy.

Exactly. This is the central point that many south of the border don’t understand. All this talk of an English referendum, the english having no choice etc is irrelevant, it’s got nothing to do with them/us. All the rest of the UK can do is accept the decision and come to an agreement which is best for everyone. Or it can be monumentally stupid and try to delay or hinder the process which I fear would lead us down a very dangerous path.

 so it is our decision. It’s called democracy.

You previously said it was undemocratic if the rUK did not get a vote as well. IIRC you said Cameron should have “insisted on it”.

So which is it then?

@BigBut – your share of the debt paid for the hospitals and medical equipment, roads plus as the UK runs a budget deficit the debt paid for the salaries of all the state employees, their pensions, welfare payments etc

Quite, and a lot of those assets are fixed to the ground, hospitals and roads, but some aren’t, overseas properties, ships, tanks etc. Not to mention the houses of parliament, the bbc, dvla. So there are assets all over the UK, some in Scotland some not which were partially paid for by Scottish debt. And that includes the Bank of England and what’s left of it’s reserves..

removed post… it was just too silly really..

athgray – Member
‘so it is our decision. It’s called democracy.’
You previously said it was undemocratic if the rUK did not get a vote as well. IIRC you said Cameron should have “insisted on it”.

So which is it then?

Democracy, plain and simple.

Democracy was not involved in subjecting Scotland to the Union. We are exercising our democratic right to leave that union. Subjects of the rUK do not have the democratic right to insist we remain in the union, ie colonise us.

I did say something along the lines of the UK should have had a reform of its undemocratic structure years ago and moved to a federated structure, and removed all unelected representatives (ie House of Lords).

Even one of England’s most revered Tory intellectuals (Enoch Powell) refused to call UK government democratic. He said it should be correctly described as a parliamentary government but not a democracy.*

(*I can be corrected on that. I’m basing it on a memory from quite a long time ago.)

That is a fair bit of twisting there epicyclo.
You were using some very odd logic by suggesting that we have to leave the UK due to broken democracy, by using the example that Cameron should have insisted the UK get a vote.

When I then asked how you would feel if Scotland was voted out of the Union by rUK even if Scots vote No, you said you would be grateful to our overlords.

You also seem to be bearing a grudge based on the political systems and democracy of the early 18th century. I hope for your sake you can get over that.

athgray – Member
…You also seem to be bearing a grudge based on the political systems and democracy of the early 18th century. I hope for your sake you can get over that.

No, it’s dead simple. I want to live in a democracy.

That we don’t is because of what happened in the 18th century, but I don’t think rule by the Stuart kings was likely to be any better.

We are voting for the future, not the past.

Why we don’t trust Westminster, they’ve already done this to us, and they are trying again.