Met Office Weather Warnings

That was my cousin (Capt Patrick Simpson) landing the Etihad A380 (idle boast)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-68036507

Looks pretty sparse to me, or do you need full membership to see all the planes? or maybe they are all landing/grounded ASAP?

I watched that live on Big Jets TV.  It’s impressive to watch in slow mo how the aircraft detects weight on the starboard (outboard) MLG wheels and slows the port wing using the spoilers, then as the aircraft starts to rotate, deploys the starboard spoilers (but less severely) to create uniform deceleration then as full weight is applied to the NLG and MLG, everything deploys. All of this in combination with the pilot input on the rudder, stick and throttles.   

It’s 22:00 on a Sunday.  Most flight traffic will be already down.  Less than 5% of flights happen between 22:00 and 06:00 hours in the UK and on Sunday, it’s less.   

That was my cousin (Capt Patrick Simpson) landing the Etihad A380 (idle boast)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-68036507

What always gets me, is the amount of force that must be on the landing gear when they land ‘heavily’, how it doesn’t buckle under is impressive to say the least!

Big tree in the back garden is down. But TBH it was near dead, and leaning over anyway, and was a case of waiting to fall over by itself.

I hope I can glean some bits of it for the lathe.

That’s what Cannondale say about there lefty fork!

An airplane can land on it, so it’s fine for our bikes!

That’s what Cannondale say about there lefty fork!

An airplane can land on it, so it’s fine for our bikes!

I never really understood the lefty fork…surely for the purposes of balance, you’d be better off with a ‘stereo pair’ of thinner forks rather than just one chonky one?

Gusts building up here.  Now starting to get a bit worrying.  Always sounds a lot worse in my flat tho.

Bit blowey here north Glasgow.  Im not expecting the pvc sheeted roof on my porch out the back to survive. Its seen a few storms and is a bit worse for wear, this may finish it off. 

It’s been bloody windy around these parts most of the evening and the noise of the wind around my chimney has been loud enough to make me jump a few times. 90mph gust recorded earlier on the top of Snowdon, I really wouldn’t have wanted to be caught up there with hurricane level gusts like that! 😳💨

Edit to add this HuffPost article as to why this storm is particularly unusual, it also points out that there have been nine major named storms hit the U.K. since September…

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/why-meteorologists-say-storm-isha-is-unusual-and-rare_uk_65ad34c9e4b076abd7abf50f

According to my weather app here in North Wilts it’s a steady 29 mph gusting to 53 mph – gusts of that velocity are unusual this far inland.

Looks like two Ryanair diverted from Leeds Bradford, one headed north and the other back over the North Sea.

it also points out that there have been nine major named storms hit the U.K. since September…

climate change in action.  I think we have now hit a tipping point.  Lots of weird weather worldwide

Took off from Gatwick at 19:10 for Stockholm.  It was ‘exciting’. But super calm once we got up to about 6kft

Hilly part of south Lanarkshire here, totally wild outside, am sure there will be debris all over the place on the morning dog walk. Lying in bed listening to the house creaking…

I never really understood the lefty fork

Tangent: most forks have the lowers sliding on bushings, but Lefties use needle roller bearings. The only way this can work is to have square tubes inside the fork sliding over each other via roller bearings. This makes it very plush, but a bit heavy. But guess what, because the tubes are square they can’t twist, so you can get away with only one leg and save a load of weight.

Welp, it’s pretty windy now. It’s almost as if the Met Office knew something… I went out and laid my wheelie bin on the floor so it didn’t blow over onto my car or the neighbours’.

Those Ryanairs into Leeds got down, one in Glasgow, one in Amsterdam.

Getting so frequent, I kind of just ignore them, which defeats the purpose, Shirley?

It does.  But I’d suggest that’s a “you problem” rather than a “them problem”.  The criteria for Yellow/Amber/Red warnings haven’t changed.  The issue is most people don’t pay much attention to the distinction – but the colour is there for a good reason.  Yellow might be rather relevant to cyclists – whether snow, rain, or wind, things on 2 wheels are more vulnerable.  Obviously everyone here is hard as nails so won’t be put off from cycling even in a red warning – but normal people might be in a yellow!  Those of us who use public transport will also appreciate the heads up that things may be chaos.   We have an orange warning here – and I’d say its justified – i’d need a really good reason to go out.

@tjagain – they’re have been 9 named storms this season but not major ones

In 1990 we had a cluster of much stronger storms across Europe

It’s not CC in action… yet.

Glencoe ski centre reported a gust of 168mph at the summit does come with several queries in accuracy though. They also reported a gust of 108 at the car park at approx the same time

 I went out and laid my wheelie bin on the floor so it didn’t blow over onto my car or the neighbours

That brings back memories. Renton?

@tjagain – they’re have been 9 named storms this season but not major ones
In 1990 we had a cluster of much stronger storms across Europe
It’s not CC in action… yet.

So, a cluster of stronger storms right across the whole of Europe spread across 12 months, thirty years ago, compared to 9 major storms (named ones are major storms), spread across 4 months. I’m assuming that the ‘CC’ in the last sentence is referring to ‘climate change’? When every scientist involved in climate research is stating that all their results clearly show a sharp upward trend in climate warming, you seem to be denying it? Would I be right in thinking that?

Also, for anyone who hasn’t read the HuffPost article, what makes this storm stand out, is that the warning given isn’t for small, localised regions of the U.K., it’s covering virtually the entire country! I have no recollection of ever seeing a situation like this ever in the past!

It’s now 02.00, the wind here is still over 24mph, gusting to over 45.

I have no doubt that the UK storms – frequency and intensity – and increasingly extreme weather around the globe are the direct result of climate change.
We will see more frequent and severe El Niño and La Niña events.
This is not just weather – it’s climate change weather.

managed to blow out an upstairs window (breaking the latches somehow, though my hamfisted spannering made it worse :/ ) on the leeward side on the house. had to tie it down in the end.

It’s not CC in action… yet.

combined with other weird weather around the world I am sure it is but just the beginnings of it. 

Think I’ll leave trying to contact my insurance co for a minor change of cover to another morning 🤔

they’re have been 9 named storms this season but not major ones

Tell that to the people of Angus. Storm Babet saw some very powerful sustained Easterly winds. The peak wave height recorded by the buoy off May Isle in the outer Firth of Forth was 10.5 meters. A ‘normal’ powerful storm in this part of the world produces waves around 3-4 meters at this buoy. According to the local fishing community that is the highest they have ever seen.

The following two weeks saw a further 3 storms with Easterly winds that all hit wave heights over 3 meters. Coastal infrastructure on the East coast has been heavily damaged.

One of the predictions of climate change is a jet stream that meanders more, resulting in blocking weather patterns. The blocking high over Scandinavia during the autumn meant that these storms couldn’t move out to the East and they just sat there.

It’s too easy to say that climate change is responsible for everything. There is no scientific consensus on the impact of climate change on European extra tropical cyclones. The increased signal from climate change is actually quite small compared to the natural variability of these systems. Things like the phase of the north Atlantic oscillation have a more pronounced effect on storm location and intensity and can vary within a season. 

There is not enough evidence today to state that there will be significant increases in the frequency or severity of these systems in the next ,20 years.  Until attribution studies have been completed it’s just conjecture, or lazy science. Fire other weather based systems across the globe it is different.

Storm naming is a public safety issue, which is very sensible. There isn’t a measure of the storm intensity prior to them rolling in, they just know that they will be disruptive. The big storm in 1987 is known as 87J, the Jth storm of the season but nobody talks about storms A-I or climate change for that year. 

The impact of sea level rise is very different and we’re definitely going to have worst storm surge events in the future even for small storms. Even then under AR6 projections, 95th percentile etc, i.e. pretty significant worst case predictions, SLR will be in the order of 10-50cm across Europe by 2050. Other parts of the world are much more affected.

My view is that in about 5-10 years science will have a different view as evidence will appear and the thinking will become more aligned but today it’s too easy to shout CC. The complexity of what is going on around us does not present us with simple yes/no interpretations, it is much more nuanced

Forecast here in Beamish is 25mph gusting to 50mph right now. My anemometer mounted on the end of a 5m pole in the garden, surrounded by sweet FA, at 115m elevation up a hill is currently showing 8mph with gusts of 20mph and hasn’t really seen an increase since about 12. It really feels like the meto have Cpl Jones in charge of the warning system.

We’re a few miles from Beamish and at 250m elevation. We lost a lot of fencing and (as yet) unknown trees etc. from our woods last night – I heard at least one good ‘craaaaaaack’ around 11 last night. Power is out on the other side of the valley from us. I would say MET office got it about right.

My wife is an avid stormwatcher/weather gonk and says there is a flow of unusually cold water going down to the western Atlantic from the Arctic due to ice melt and a similarly unusual flow of warm coming up, which, when they met, was probably contributory to the intensity of this particular storm system.

We would definitely get the same number of low pressure systems coming at us over the course of a normal winter, but the frequency of more violent systems is increasing.

It was forcing water through the gap at top of a UPVC window frame at one point, so I guess I’m going out with the sealant gun when it dies down a bit.

It get absolutely stormy here after midnight until about 3. The local weather station reported 99mph gusts, I quite believe it too. Certainly justified the amber warning, fitted in with their prediction for the time too. 

I had a proper panicked meltdown at 3am.  Wind still howling down the chimney, storms, recent flights, work issues all came out.  Now no longer hyperventalating but missed flight and in bed with head and leg pain plus lightheadedesness  time for me to forget all the CBT and lightweight therapies and see a doctor – if I can ever get an appointment on the website.  Hopefully she’ll give me some of the SSRI stuff that people on here use.

im exhausted but if I can I’ll walk out and check the fence panels later.   

@Drac – it was Brizlee again ,same as Arwen. It’s exposed elevated location means it usually records local max wind speed

Almost nothing in Manchester. Quiet night and calm morning. I’m in Warrington currently, and its very similar.

Elshalimo

I think you are right in that real climate scientists would say this winter is perhaps indicative of climate change but not proven.  To me as a lay person its pretty conclusive – sort of “beyond reasonable doubt” v “balance of probabilities”

When natural variation in weather is greater than the change in climate it hard to be sure

Looks like a few slates gone off the roof.  I’ll give it a proper inspection later.  I can get out on the roof safely to check

it was Brizlee again ,same as Arwen. It’s exposed elevated location means it usually records local max wind speed

Yup that’s the one. And that’s how they work, use unobstructed areas to get an accurate recording. Unlike Arwen this came from the west, so cheviots and Pennines would have taken the brunt. Speeds beat Arwen but a much shorted period.

Yellow might be rather relevant to cyclists

We cancel club road rides if theres a yellow warning. Hardly anyone turns up anyway, the regulars will sort out their own rides if they still want to go out, everyone seems happy with it.

It might not be protected the way you say. These systems spin (cyclones) and the highest wind speeds are on the south side of them slightly east too. So as the low moved over to Norway the spinning action would give you a long run up (fetch) across the North Sea. As you know direction is key so I’ll guess that peak Brizlee wind was coming in from the sea.

Once the data has been verified/checked by the UK MetOfiice it will be available to check this