Met Office Weather Warnings

I use the Met Office without alerts. I look at it when I want to check a forecast.

I’m not sure the alerts defence stands up.

but it’s come on the heels of weather warnings about the cold and the wind in the last few days and weeks, or in other words: Winter.

No it would be a certain level of cold and wind.
For example despite being colder than normal here there is no warning because it hasnt tripped the thresholds.
The point is for most people yellow warnings can be ignored. Either its low risk to most people or its uncertain eg several days out and hence if you are planning on going somewhere at the weekend and see one its worth reviewing.
Ultimately though we have the three levels for a reason. Its not just “weather warnings”.

maybe I’m just colour blind, but until reading this thread I didn’t realise that Yellow alerts and Amber alerts weren’t the same thing 😆

i am of course, privileged to live in a city in the South, where we only get disruptive snow about twice a decade anyway. But still.  They could change the colours!

Interesting to see that the weather warnings are based on a risk-type matrix.  I bet the general population (as I had done now I htink about it) assument the yellow/amber/red warnings were on a linear scale.

Given the number of people I have to deal with professionally that fundamentally misunderstand risk matrices, I imagine trying to explain it to the general popualation in a concise way (embedded in a 3min broadcast?) to be near impossible.

Maybe clarifying the status of the yellow warnings (e.g: “High liklihood, low impact”) would be useful?

i am of course, privileged to live in a city in the South, where we only get disruptive snow about twice a decade anyway. But still.  They could change the colours!

It’s not only warnings for snow, they do them for wind and rain as well. Both this year and last we had weeks of yellow warnings for both through autumn and into winter locally. (We had this same discussion last year.) After a while you shrug and ignore them.

Maybe clarifying the status of the yellow warnings (e.g: “High liklihood, low impact”) would be useful?

Which goes back to the original question, if they are low impact then why the warning? (The answer seems to be so that someone can put a blanket in their car just in case it’s cold. In January.)

I use the Met Office without alerts. I look at it when I want to check a forecast.

I’m not sure the alerts defence stands up.

But.. not everyone is the same.. you know that right?

if they are low impact then why the warning?

Because the impact is not the same for everyone!  Good grief.

Low impact is about the scale of the impact… few people effected…. some people could be seriously effected. But we get it now… “this warning is of no use for me, therefore it shouldn’t happen”. How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings, and leave others to read up on the details if they want.

How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings

Unless, say, you work with the homeless or are a crane operator etc.

It is odd how people are struggling with the basic concept that yellow warnings are intended to be ignored by most people (the low probability ones being the exceptions but generally those are several days out and hence something to keep an eye on and keep a plan b in mind) and keep complaining that they want to ignore them.

How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings, and leave others to read up on the details if they want.

We have yellow weather warnings for rain and wind on weather forecasts quite regularly through the year, which, according to you lot, don’t mean a thing to the majority of people. Primetime TV weather people will regularly tell us very seriously that WARNING!!! heavy rain or wind will affect this region or that. However, if you do something that needs slightly more detailed info, like:

Unless, say, you work with the homeless or are a crane operator etc.

you’d see the WARNING!!! and check in more detail. But, if you need that info you’d be checking for it anyway, so the WARNING!!! is just as redundant for those people as for the people who don’t need it. There must be a small number of people glancing up from their phones and thinking oh, it’s going to rain tomorrow…

So yes, I can ignore them, but if I see a weather WARNING!!! for tomorrow and I’m planning to ride to work as normal, I’m likely to check what the WARNING!!! is about. I always find that it’s telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year. In two years of these being in place I haven’t once been told of anything that has affected my plans but it has driven lots more traffic from me to various weather sites.

We have yellow weather warnings for rain and wind on weather forecasts quite regularly through the year, which, according to you lot

No not according to “you lot” but according to the met office. If you are having difficulty with this then I am not sure how you deal with the additional complexity of a weather forecast.

I’m likely to check what the WARNING!!! is about. I always find that it’s telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year.

You dont get a “WARNING!!!” but a yellow, amber or red warning.
This isnt difficult:
Yellow unless you are vulnerable groups I would generally ignore. Although if I was cycling and it was a wind warning I would take a closer look for example.
Amber and Red I would definitely pay attention to.

You dont get a “WARNING!!!” but a yellow, amber or red warning.
This isnt difficult:

You do get a warning, they are all warnings. I think that’s my issue – the yellow one should be an alert, not a warning. (It’s all in the wording! 😀 )

I always find that it’s telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year.

Yes, but so what?  Traffic jams are normal, but I still want to know where they are so I can take appropriate action.

Disruptive weather is normal but it’s still disruptive.  You are missing the point.

Yes, but so what?  Traffic jams are normal, but I still want to know where they are so I can take appropriate action.

So we’ll have a general warning across south Wales that the roads are jammed up between 4pm and 6pm this evening? Just because there WILL be traffic jams around Baglan, Port Talbot and J32 of the M4…

You want to know where the specific traffic jams are not a general warning for a whole area, which is exactly what I want of the weather forecast. Good grief!

So we’ll have a general warning across south Wales that the roads are jammed up between 4pm and 6pm this evening?

No… but I would like to know if for example there’s an accident on the M4 causing even more tailbacks than usual.  It always happens, but it’s occasional, and requiring alternative plans to be made.

You want to know where the specific traffic jams are not a general warning for a whole area, which is exactly what I want of the weather forecast.

That is what you get. You don’t get a warning that says ‘it might be a bit chilly because it’s January’.  You get one that specifically says ‘there will be a lot of rain in this area, that is likely to cause flooding in the normal areas’.  Because whilst certain areas are prone to flooding, you don’t know exactly which ones are going to flood on any given day. The Met Office have a good idea though, but you don’t want them to tell anyone because it slightly irritates you.

I can imagine there’ll be a few folks getting worked up about this one…definitely a day for not going out! I know quite a few of the Lifeboat crew and they’ll be hoping the same.

But.. not everyone is the same.. you know that right?

Of course, but its the people with alerts who are not happy with the warnings….

I can imagine there’ll be a few folks getting worked up about this one

The XC weather forecast for today for my area when I went to bed last night was 4 inches of snow and -7 degrees

It’s currently +3 degrees and raining

Their forecasts are notoriously pessimistic

^^^ yep, still under a yellow snow and ice Met office and BBC warning and it’s rain showers, sun and 3 to 4 degrees.

No wonder folks ignore the warnings, leading to the whole cry wolf culture.

Their forecasts are notoriously pessimistic

Most weather sites and apps use global models, sometimes with some extra interpretation on top.  These are pretty low resolution and hence not that accurate for your location.  The Met Office is the best for the UK.  But even then, when they put a picture of a cloud and a snowflake when you type in your postcode, that is not a guarantee – that’s not how it works.  They will know with a high degree of confidence that a band of snow for example is crossing the country from east to west.  But they may only know its path and extent to within 50 miles or so – which is quite a long way in the UK.  So if they say it’s going to snow across southern Scotland and Northern England, and it does, then they’re 100% correct.  However if you live near the edge of the system, and it is only slightly out, you will see the forecast as 100% wrong.

No wonder folks ignore the warnings

It’s because people don’t understand how weather forecasting works and they want the moon on a stick. If you really want a proper view of the weather watch the video forecasts on YouTube – they talk you through what their models are saying and the language reflects how they are thinking – they don’t just read out a list of locations and snow/sun/rain etc, they tell you that there’s a front across some part of the country and it is probably going to be rain but there’s a chance of some falling as snow on higher ground.  It’s a much better way to look at it.

they talk you through what their models are saying and the language reflects how they are thinking – they don’t just read out a list of locations and snow/sun/rain etc, they tell you that there’s a front across some part of the country and it is probably going to be rain but there’s a chance of some falling as snow on higher ground.  It’s a much better way to look at it.

Sounds like a weather forecast to me, instead of a one-word weather warning covering hundreds of miles? Does that bring us back to where we started?

It’s because people don’t understand how weather forecasting works

This really does read as ‘everybody’s thicker than I am’. Do you really think that we all gaze slack-jawed at Derek the weatherman and wonder why he’s talking about localised floods?  😀

IMO they make these warnings much more easily than they used to- perhaps in part after the non hurricane warning linked to aboveI have had warnings for here where there is nothing unusual at all.  I tend to ignore the warnings and look at actual forecasts

It’s because people don’t understand how weather forecasting works

So you’re saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?

It took a long time but it’s great to see STW finally agree with the Daily Mail and Tory MPs over something:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12484731/Tourism-chiefs-MPs-hit-nannying-weather-warnings-issued-forecasters-amid-predictions-coming-days-hottest-year.html

But Conservative MP Peter Bone dismissed the ‘nanny state’ tone, saying: ‘There will be a time when there is a need for a real alert because temperatures are very high. The danger is if you issue them all the time, people ignore them. They ought to be careful about issuing alerts.’

It’s what every red-blooded gammon is saying…….”WE DIDN’T NEED THE BLOODY GOVERNMENT TO TELL US THAT IT WAS HOT IN SUMMER AND COLD IN WINTER WHEN WE WERE KIDS!!!” 👺🤬

IT’S ALL PART OF THE SO-CALLED “CLIMATE CHANGE” SCAM! innit

Who is this “STW” you often refer to, as if all other posters think as one?

Other than that… I agree… the Met Office provides useful information, some of it as “warnings”, everyone can do what they sit fit with that information. It’s like people who moan about exhaustive food labelling… if you don’t need to or want to know what’s in the food you’re buying… just ignore it! Others need to know, or find it useful at times for their own decision making on what to buy or eat.

[ EDIT: a closer example is probably food traffic light nutrition labels I suppose ]

as if all others posters think as one?

Good point. STW is veritable minestrone of political diversity!

So you’re saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?

Given how people have been struggling with the concept of a yellow warning that does seem to be the case. God knows how they handle a proper forecast.

So you’re saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?

Yes. In case you hadn’t noticed, a large number of people are really quite stupid.

Almost the whole UK now under Amber warning for later, don’t think that happens to often

Yes. In case you hadn’t noticed, a large number of people are really quite stupid.

amazingly half of the population are of below average intelligence

The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.

Put off a bike ride this morning due to the high winds. It was a lovely morning 😡

How many different types [of warning] are there?

This week we’ve had Ice and Snow, Wind and Rain (all separately) There should be a bingo card if you get all of them ticked of, and people could win prizes.

Well, our Tesco delivery has been cancelled! I am sitting up and taking notice…

The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.

Put off a bike ride this morning due to the high winds.

yeah the yellow warning here was from noon today and the amber from 6.00pm, nothing about the morning… perhaps you are over egging your response ?

The warning categories are rain, thunderstorms, wind, snow, lightning, ice, extreme heat and fog. That would be quite a week.

The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.

Its was a yellow warning to begin with. You are supposed to review and make decisions based on that.
For example I had the yellow warning and was still planning on a ride although would have been going for a loop which would have been relatively close to home at all times vs one heading miles out and then having to come the same miles back.
As it stands though whilst its not overly windy since the gusts have been strong and frequent I decided against it.
Strongish wind is one thing but I hate inconsistently strong wind when cycling.

Wow this really has descended into a pit of **** ishness.

I’d suggest going out for a walk but given the forecast I’d suggest a **** instead to relieve whatever it is you have pent up that you’ve otherwise been releasing as abuse for folk you disagree with.

Its was a yellow warning to begin with. You are supposed to review and make decisions based on that.

Warnings aside, the MET office was telling me it was 25/40 speed/gusts at the time I was looking out of the window (8am) and the tree tops weren’t even moving.

I could only assume that it would possibly get a bit nasty whilst I was out as it was forecast all day and getting worse. This morning was lovely – perfect conditions. It looks a litle bit breezy now

Well, our Tesco delivery has been cancelled! I am sitting up and taking notice…

National computer failure, not weather. I’m one of the lucky one in four drivers still out delivering now in West Yorkshire. Calm down, ladies, it’s (waves hand vaguely) winter weather. The groceries must get through!

Our anemometer has already reached a gust speed of 97kph here in the Cotswolds and it’s not even at the forecast worst point yet.  This could get interesting.

Wind has picked up substantially here (SE Manchester). This morning wasn’t too bad but it’s definitely got a lot worse in the last couple of hours…