Is May about to call an election?

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  • Is May about to call an election?
  • tjagain
    Member

    zokes – the costs dwarf most other things

    500 000 people in residential care costing at least 30 000 pa and often 60 000 and thats for care that frankly is poor in general

    1.2 million receiving home care. Average cost probably ( I am guessingish) averaging out at ยฃ20 000+ pa per person – and that care is frankly grossly inadequate

    My NHS unit that provides good care for people with multiple complex needs ie cannot be managed in care homes costs probably at least ยฃ100 000 pa per person

    Numbers of people requiring care is due to increase massively

    Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

    zokes
    Member

    Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

    This was presumably a question posed when both universal healthcare and universal education were mooted. Needless to say, the money was found and those services came into existence.

    There are a hundred and one ways of finding the money that include cracking down on tax evasion, increase in taxes and / or NI, not spending money on silly things like Trident, and not pissing tens of billions up the wall over Brexit and resultant economic impacts. I’m quite happy for inheritance tax to be ramped up in some way to pay for this also, but I think taking the family home is just a step too far for an awful lot of people.

    piemonster
    Member

    Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

    Im so far assuming the poor will receive inadequate care and everyone else will go private. I’m not seeing this as a means to ensure quality care for all.

    What safeguards can you put in place to protect those that need care but don’t seek it? Are there estimates for any increased economic losses accrued due to people dropping out of work to care for family members? (Genuine questions)

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
    Subscriber

    Are there estimates for any increased economic losses accrued due to people dropping out of work to care for family members? (Genuine questions)

    Probably none, probably no estimates of how many people will be able to skip the tax implications, the risk of house prices crashing or how much the government will underwrite the scheme or what the underwriting of the house loan scheme will be.

    Remember how Northwind pointed out that Student loans were probably going to be mostly written off hence the government picks up the tab.

    The police intent may be good but I really don’t think the implimentation will be anything close.

    What should be of concearn to May is the fact this is still running today, it’s overshadowed her Manifesto on everything else

    Politically it’s a significant mistake.

    Premier Icon ratherbeintobago
    Subscriber

    Remember how Northwind pointed out that Student loans were probably going to be mostly written off hence the government picks up the tab.

    That’s because they’re designed as a graduate tax in all but name.

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
    Subscriber

    That’s because they’re designed as a graduate tax in all but name.

    Where as this is an inheritance tax based on the value of an asset 10-20 years in the future.

    Premier Icon ratherbeintobago
    Subscriber

    Where as this is an inheritance tax based on the value of an asset 10-20 years in the future.

    A quick skim of the literature suggests (admittedly in Auckland, but I can’t imagine the UK is dissimilar) that the median survival on admission to long-term care is 2y

    thecaptain
    Member

    Yebbut part of the point of the changes is that the charges start on home care which presumably is usually further ahead of death.

    Junkyard
    Member

    That’s because they’re designed as a graduate tax in all but name

    you are aracer and i decline to have this conversation

    Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the “graduate tax” – what tax operates like this ?

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
    Subscriber

    Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the “graduate tax” – what tax operates like this ?

    For the majority of students the fee’s will never be repaid in full, the minimum will be taken every month, they are due to go up again this year so a 3 year course could land you with about 30k of fee’s not counting any living costs etc. I’d call that a tax for some people.

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
    Subscriber

    also contrasting with the Labour policy of scrapping tuition fee’s today
    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-39994886
    Which could help a lot of people longer term, especially if things like the cash set aside for repaying fee’s was used for house deposits or increased pension contributions. Being able to divert a little more cash into a pension in your 20’s would seriously help a lot of people in their 80’s

    Premier Icon ratherbeintobago
    Subscriber

    Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the “graduate tax” – what tax operates like this ?

    What MWS said – it’s designed so the overwhelming majority never pay it off.

    Junkyard
    Member

    I’d call that a tax for some people.

    well I call my auntie my uncle.
    This has been done to death, on here, whilst there are many similarities between what we have and a graduate tax it is still not a graduate tax.
    Graduate and immediately repay debts= no tax dont repay then accrue interest on the debt – name another tax where this happens – its not what happens with taxation in general and certainly not on income tax/PAYE

    I accept they designed it to be as much like a graduate tax as possible and in may respects it is very similar in operation but it is still not one as its a loan and you can be told how much to repay to never have to pay “tax” ever again.

    You can call it a graduate tax if you like and I can call my my aunt my uncle but neither of these are accurate descriptions.
    Not doing this again its just not a graduate tax.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    Dementia tax u-turn!

    This is un bee lieevable!

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    Dementia tax u-turn!

    Strong and stable ๐Ÿ˜†

    Premier Icon jam bo
    Subscriber

    thatcher would be turning in her grave.

    Premier Icon BoardinBob
    Subscriber

    molgrips wrote:

    Dementia tax u-turn!
    This is un bee lieevable!

    “A promise to consult” apparently

    And then ignore what anyone says and do whatever she wants

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    Dementia tax u-turn!

    What she has said, is that no one will lose their family home and that the conservatives will make sure savings of less than 100k get passed on.

    What she probably means is that you won’t lose the family home whilst one parent is still alive.

    I love how that she is using “fake news” at every possible moment, as though she has decided to take a leaf from Donald Trumps playbook.

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    May says nothing has changed. She says she has offered a sustainable solution to the problem of social care.

    ๐Ÿ˜†

    She’s trying to be Vladislav Serkov now , war is peace freedom is slavery ignorance is strength etc etc

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
    Subscriber

    Strong and stable…..

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    Do political campains experience a kind of momentum (with a small M)? How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour’s poll increase?

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-35-18-19-/

    Only 9 points now.

    Buowhahahah.

    Do political campains experience a kind of momentum (with a small M)? How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour’s poll increase?

    What can the conservatives say now, that hasn’t already been said? He’s taken so much abuse through the campaign, that I think people have been numbed to it (the same as what happened with Trump). It’s the conservatives that are going to get hit with scandals now, hopefully Dianne Abbot et al now STFU and don’t let themselves get cornered on TV.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    I know it’s not particularly likely still and even 9 points is a lot, but I would just love to experience a political bombshell of that magnitude if he won!

    What can the conservatives say now, that hasn’t already been said?

    I saw a political add on my Facebook sidebar that said (not in so many words) Corbyn was going to raise taxes for everyday families. That’s US levels of political advertising disingenuousness, that is.

    fifeandy
    Member

    How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour’s poll increase?

    Extremely unlikely.
    Their whole plan was to do nothing, offer nothing, and let JC shoot himself in the foot.
    Not only has JC not held up his side of the bargain, but they’ve shot themselves in the foot instead.
    To really change things around they need some actual good policies, and its a bit late for that after the manifesto is launched.

    Still predict they’ll win, but may find the majority isn’t any bigger than they already have, which will be something of a wasted exercise.

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    It would be **** epic wouldn’t it.

    Especially if the Russians helped him get in.

    Oh how I would bathe in the tears of Tories.

    Premier Icon aracer
    Subscriber

    junkyard wrote:

    you are aracer and i decline to have this conversation

    ๐Ÿ˜†

    But then you did anyway ๐Ÿ˜‰

    It may not be a graduate tax, but as pointed out, it’s very much like one for all but those who earn the most – just as your auntie is much like your uncle. It’s certainly not a normal debt – the banks don’t treat it like one when assessing for mortgages etc. If you are below the repayment threshold then it’s pretty much indistinguishable from a tax (sure there are things you can do to make it not like one, but most people don’t do those things).

    kerley
    Member

    Especially if the Russians helped him get in.

    The Russians would be favouring May I would think. They want leaders who are going to **** their own country up so they can take more opportunities more easily.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    Still predict they’ll win, but may find the majority isn’t any bigger than they already have, which will be something of a wasted exercise.

    not to mention ยฃ170 wasted

    the tories just love to spend, spend spend, now wonder theyve doubled the national debt

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    The Russians would be favouring May I would think. They want leaders who are going to **** their own country up so they can take more opportunities more easily.

    I reckon they’d like to see Trident scrapped. ๐Ÿ˜€

    ctk
    Member

    The horse has bolted from the strong and stable.

    If only the media would just go hard on May for this U- Turn (for sport) it would be bloody excellent!

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    whats the estimate >1bn Russian money laundered through british banks?

    as long as that stays the same I dont think the russians will mind too much

    they were quite blatant in their support for Brexit on RT, farage galloway and brexiter tories like Peter Bone appearing regularly

    I think that its achieved its aim brilliantly for them, Johnsosns push for more sanctions ignored by other EU countries and the fallout from brexit (this election included) have hobbled us economically and politically for the next few years

    (its why the Tories think everyone is desperate for Strong & Stable leadership after Cameron threw us all to the dogs)

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    Playing with the yougov swingometer, it really isn’t far off a hung parliament now!

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    According to Matthew d’Ancona in today’s Guardian, a lot of Tory MP’s, and I suspect a lot of tribal tory voters regard the following manifesto statement….

    We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.

    as nothing short of heresy. Rejecting as it does the words cast in stone from… you know… HER.

    The party is holding it together for the time being, what, with an election in weeks. But if she is re-elected, and actually tries to follow through on any of that, then the Tory’s could pretty soon be looking about as united in a common cause as those sat on the benches opposite have done for the last 12 months.

    ninfan
    Member

    A graduate tax is an interesting comparison – particularly given that those who benefit most from university are predominantly from reasonably well to do backgrounds who have been afforded the opportunities to get them there – there is a strong argument that using low paid workers taxes to pay for middle class kids to go to university is unfair. Personally I would be all for an extra -x- pence on income tax rates for graduates rather than a complicated loan system.

    Similarily, TJ has accurately laid out the dilemma of it being unfair both ways, poor people subsidising middle class inheritances, versus people who have scrimped and saved having to pay while their spendthrift neighbour gets it free.

    There’s no easy solution… well, unless we legalise the Swiss option, and pensioners start doing what’s best for both their family and society in general.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    The party is holding it together for the time being, what, with an election in weeks. But if she is re-elected, and actually tries to follow through on any of that,

    she wont follow through on a bit of it, immighration cuts, dementia tax, itll join the ‘workers on boards’ gimmick as a nice idea that shed never have got her MPs to vote thru in any meannigful way

    ninfan
    Member

    as nothing short of heresy. Rejecting as it does the words cast in stone from… you know… HER.

    I think that’s nonsense – as portillo rightly pointed out on this week, Thatcher would never have countenanced some of the more recent privatisations

    tjagain
    Member

    Ninfan – you are not allowed to agree with me – have you read the rules? ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    The horse has bolted from the strong and stable.

    So first they piss off their core support by threatening to take their kids inheritance away from them, then in classic style they do a massive u-turn even though the manifesto is printed and two senior ministers were on the prime political news telly show only 24 hours ago defending it, and have now completely destroyed the central slogan which they’ve been drilling into everyone’s heads for the past month. Strong and stable? Dithering and incompetent more like. I can only imagine the scene in tory HQ right now ๐Ÿ˜€

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    A graduate tax is an interesting comparison – particularly given that those who benefit most from university are predominantly from reasonably well to do backgrounds who have been afforded the opportunities to get them there – there is a strong argument that using low paid workers taxes to pay for middle class kids to go to university is unfair. Personally I would be all for an extra -x- pence on income tax rates for graduates rather than a complicated loan system.

    Similarily, TJ has accurately laid out the dilemma of it being unfair both ways, poor people subsidising middle class inheritances, versus people who have scrimped and saved having to pay while their spendthrift neighbour gets it free.

    Ninfan – you’re giving far too much thought to other peoples opinions – for a politics thread.

    Did someone hit you over the head with a cricket bat? ๐Ÿ˜€

    This threads making for interesting/informative reading, unlike the EU thread. Keep it up guys.

    Premier Icon cloudnine
    Subscriber

    The impending diabetes / obesity epidemic is likely to prove useful. People probably won’t even make it to retirement.. Never mind dementia to look forward to

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