If we’re doing questions that result in long threads…
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?Posted 9 years ago
More exact phrasing:
Suppose you’re on a game show and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats [that is, booby prizes]. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you “Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?” Is it to your advantage to change your choice?pk-ripperMember
Switch every time, as waswas says. When you chose door 1 you had a 33% chance of being correct. Now you have a choice of 2, by switching you have a 50% chance of being correct.
Besides, if you end up with the goat you can’t drive around but it’s regular sex at least.Posted 9 years agopjt201Member
tomzo – Member
So, what about deal or no deal, when they get offered the swap at the end? there were 22 boxes, he’s stuck with it all the way until there is just his box and one other. would it be better to swap?
It’s a nice idea, but one that would only work if there were 21 boxes with (let’s say) £1 in them and 1 box with £250,000. In which case if you were left with two boxes at the end and one was still the £250k box then you’d be an idiot not to switch as you’d have a 95% probability of winning the big prize by switching.Posted 9 years ago
The topic ‘If we’re doing questions that result in long threads…’ is closed to new replies.