Gaza

Except I see Netanyahu seems to be going on about retaliating against this attack… please let that just be bluff & swagger

Wouldn’t put it past him. He’s made one catastrophic mistake with his massacre/genocide* (and the decisions he made which lead to 7/10) in Gaza so wouldn’t suprise me if he doubled down by starting a war with Iran. Aside from Putin is there a more dangerous national leader in the world right now?

*delete as appropriate

Really good analysis of the actors and possibilities in the conflict from David Hearst Editor-in-Chief of Middle East Eye (ex guardian foreign correspondant), please ignore the rather clickbait graphic on the video as his analysis is very straight and to the point, only 10mins long

Really good analysis of the actors and possibilities in the conflict from David Hearst

Very good that.

Aside from Putin is there a more dangerous national leader in the world right now?

Rupert Murdoch

Arab News (which is headquartered in Saudi Arabia) has accused Middle East Eye of being opaquely funded by Qatar. Qatar is a rival of Saudi, highly collaborative with (but not quite an ally of) Iran, and the host and funder of Hamas.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1519151

Cynics would say “well, of course KSA would say that when they see someone publishing content that’s critical of their foreign policy”.

Middle East Eye has been known to vigorously defend its reputation using high profile and expensive lawyers: https://www.carter-ruck.com/news/middle-east-eye-defeats-libel-claim-brought-by-prominent-palestinian/

Also, the UK etc defending Israel against another nation’s attack does not equate to agreeing with Israel’s actions in Gaza. “Stop killing citizens or we’ll hang you out to dry in a massive war” is not really a good way out of this…

Compare and contrast to the situation with missile attacks on Ukraine…

Have to say, usually I’m not overly worried about world war(s), and heck there’s a lot of it at the moment. But the attack on Israel by Iran scares me. We’re looking at a whole new Middle East.

But the attack on Israel by Iran scares me. We’re looking at a whole new Middle East.

I’m not particularly worried. Netanyahu and his ultra-right lunatics migth be scary but for now I think Biden is the deciding factor and an Israel-Iran war is clearly not in his interests right now. I suspect that despite their declarations of support the US/UK and other western allies will have made the conditions very clear to Israel.

I’m not particularly worried.

Yup. For example, we had been under close protection by the Iron Dome for the past two weeks since the Iranian generals were eliminated. Our protection disappeared yesterday afternoon though, and that’s only 12 hours after being directly targeted by Hamas again, so it seems the powers that be think things are a lot calmer.

@Mark possible that this thread merits a change of title since it is now actively discussing a wider area?

But the attack on Israel by Iran scares me

Is that because we expect more restraint from Iran?

Iran’s response on Saturday was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consular compound in Syria, in effect Iranian sovereign territory, and the assassination of half a dozen of its officials. This was in violation of international law – which is why officially Israel will not admit responsibility.

And yet this deliberate act of war by Israel did not seem to concern people very much. However Iran invoking Article 15 of the UN Charter which gives it the legal right to self-defence did cause people, including myself btw, a lot of concern.

We expect Israel to have a cavalier attitude and contempt towards international law with little consequences because frankly they have always got away with it. We don’t however have the same expectations from other countries.

possible that this thread merits a change of title since it is now actively discussing a wider area?

Such as ?

How about ‘Nuclear fallout, and how to avoid it’

We can have a PSA on where is best to buy Iodine tablets.

“I think Biden is the deciding factor and an Israel-Iran war is clearly not in his interests right now”

An Israel-Gaza war is not in his interests either, but it’s still happening, and Netanyahu is not just doing what Biden wants at the moment. I’m worried we have a lot more gloom to go.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/netanyahu-biden-gaza-ceasefire-b2510936.html

However Iran invoking Article 15 of the UN Charter which gives it the legal right to self-defence did cause people, including myself btw, a lot of concern.

I’m not sure their response was proportionate to the “crime” that Israel hasn’t owned up to

Is that because we expect more restraint from Iran?

Iran’s response on Saturday was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consular compound in Syria, in effect Iranian sovereign territory, and the assassination of half a dozen of its officials.

Yes I would expect Iran to instead organise, arm and control proxy organisations like Hamas & Hezbollah so that they could attack Israel instead. In fact, that was probably what those officials were doing.
Not a fan of Israel, but get a sense of perspective.

I’m not sure their response was proportionate….

I guess it depends whether you believe that Iran had 350 targets in their sights on Saturday or whether you believe that the 170 slow low flying propeller driven drones, for example, were  designed to overwhelm air defences so that half a dozen or so ballistic missiles could hit their targets.

Which they did according to Israeli authorities – 5 ballistic missiles struck the Nevatim Airbase, which was  where the attack on the Iranian consulate compound was launched from, and another 4 ballistic missiles hit the Ramon Airbase, also in Southern Israel (the Iranians also claim to have hit an intelligence gathering facility in the Golan Heights)

The latter sounds fairly proportionate.

 In fact, that was probably what those officials were doing.

If it was both legal and justified Israel would not hesitate to claim responsibility for the attack.

If it was both legal and justified Israel would not hesitate to claim responsibility for the attack.

What have the Iranian’s said about what their officials were doing in their consulate? I notice they haven’t commented much. Perhaps it wasn’t legal & justified according to international law.

There is a bit of a difference between sending shady people as accredited diplomats to a foreign country, and carrying out a surgical strike of a foreign embassy/diplomatic compound in a third, sovereign nation.

Seriously, there is. That latter is all kinds of wrong and it opens a way for escalating a conflict in many ways I would rather not have.

Again: I’m no apologist for Israel, but we know an undeclared war exists between them & Iran. They both get up to all sorts of stuff which doesn’t cross the line they seem to have drawn.. I suspect that October 7th went way beyond that line and Israel presumable feels that they have a right to take out those people they believe  planned or instigated those attacks. I certainly don’t support the consulate strike, but I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t have happened if the Iranians hadn’t upped the ante in October.

I don’t think the IDF blowing up  any Iranian embassy where-ever it is was a good move whatever the “worth” of the targets may have been*,  and nor do I think the lobbing 300 missiles at an entire country is ‘limited’ in the way that some news organisations has suggested that it was.  A few months ago I would’ve said that the Israelis tend towards being a bit smarter about these sorts of things (in a cynical way) These days, I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t trust the Iranian govt as far as I could collectively throw them and never really have. Any administration that has behaved towards its own population as undemocratically as they have, deserves to be over-thrown.

* I think if you’re actually at war with another country/organisation, targeting their leadership, where ever they are – totally fine. Not actually declared war, no right to go after its leadership. Maybe I’m just out of touch

I’m not sure their response was proportionate to the “crime” that Israel hasn’t owned up to

This was a serious attempt IMHO

The main point for me is the mix of missiles. Experience in Ukraine is that ballistic missiles are the hardest to intercept and Russia typically launches single-figure numbers of ballistic missiles in a strike. Iran has launched 10x those numbers and the only Iranian missiles to get through the layers of defence were ballistic, although with little significant damage caused. Russia has been adjusting its missile packages through two years of experience, Iran hasn’t yet learnt that lesson

Russia typically launches half the total number of Iranian missiles in a single strike on Ukraine. If this rate is repeated by Iran over further attacks then the numbers will be huge

This is balanced by the air defences that Israel has and the assistance that it receives as compared to Ukraine. Israel also has more time due to the distances travelled by missiles from Iran and assistance from countries that Iran overflys, e.g. Jordan, that have intercepted missiles in their airspace

If the attack is repeated then the stakes have been raised

Graphic illustrating numbers…

Missile numbers, defensive layers, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68811273 and https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran%E2%80%99s-attempt-hit-israel-russian-style-strike-package-failedfor-now

I guess it depends whether you believe that Iran had 350 targets in their sights on Saturday or whether you believe that the 170 slow low flying propeller driven drones, for example, were designed to overwhelm air defences so that half a dozen or so ballistic missiles could hit their targets….snip…The latter sounds fairly proportionate.

You missed the other 110-ish ballistic missiles that were launched by Iran ^^

but I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t have happened if the Iranians hadn’t upped the ante in October.

Aside from last I saw the US and co were saying they didnt have any evidence that Iran was directly involved.

Given the number of other assassinations by Israel I am not sure your argument adds up even without that.

“I don’t think the IDF blowing up  any Iranian embassy where-ever it is was a good move whatever the “worth” of the targets may have been*,  …A few months ago I would’ve said that the Israelis tend towards being a bit smarter about these sorts of things”

Interesting article in the Guardian the other day suggesting that, basically, there is no strategic approach to this within Israel. If they see a target and a way to hit it, they might well hit the button. There’s no 4D chess going on.

““Israel went too far in assassinating the Iranian general, probably, in a diplomatic location,” said Yagil Levy, a professor of military sociology at the Open University of Israel.

“Israel is led by the availability of its weapons systems. And whenever the country or the leadership feels that they have a good intelligence, a good opportunity and available weaponry systems that can do the job, Israel strikes,” he added.

“Israel doesn’t have a really strategic approach … the attempt to identify the [connections] between specific military actions and expected benefits is not in the repertoire of the Israeli leadership.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/why-israel-attack-on-iranian-consulate-in-syria-was-a-gamechanger

The Iranian attack was as disproportionate as the Israeli response to Oct 7th. Therein lies the symmetry.

You missed the other 110-ish ballistic missiles that were launched by Iran ^^

No I didn’t , it was included in the total when I asked the likelihood of them actually targeting 350 different targets.

Everyone knows that Israeli air defences are excellent (although not so good that they didn’t need  help the US, the UK, France, and even Jordan) the only way that Iran stood any chance of penetrating them was by overwhelming them, which they apparently did – the at least 9 ballistic missiles which hit their military targets did so because Israel failed to intercept them.

You have to assume that such a strategically important air base as the Nevatim Airbase is defended as well as Israel possibly can. If Iran can hit it with 5 ballistic missiles it is reasonable to assume that Iran can hit Tel Aviv.

but I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t have happened if the Iranians hadn’t upped the ante in October.

Goodness, do you honestly believe that Hamas don’t want a Palestine free from Israeli occupation and what they are actually doing is fighting and dying for Iran?

Hamas and the Islamic State of Iran are not close, for a start Hamas is Sunni and the regime in Tehran is Shia. Until recently Hamas and Iran were supporting totally opposing sides in the Syrian Civil War. Obviously both share a common enemy in Israel but I personally very much doubt that Hamas even warned Iran of its planned attack on Oct 7.

I know that the Western press, especially the tabloids, like to make it all very simple and claim that all Muslims are the same and all have the same goals, but it isn’t that simple.

No I didn’t , it was included in the total when I asked the likelihood of them actually targeting 350 different targets.

I’m glad that we’ve cleared that up, because the other 180 missiles could have been of far lesser importance

If Iran can hit it with 5 ballistic missiles it is reasonable to assume that Iran can hit Tel Aviv.

This will be Israel’s worry, along with the overt hand of Iran. Let’s hope that doesn’t cause an escalation

Hamas and the Islamic State of Iran are not close, for a start Hamas is Sunni and the regime in Tehran is Shia.

Well the reason why Hamas is Sunni is because well over 90% of Palestinians are Sunni. Given that is the case it seems rather strange, according to your rationale, that Iran is such an outspoken & active supporter of the Palestinian cause.

Iran’s response on Saturday was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consular compound in Syria, in effect Iranian sovereign territory, and the assassination of half a dozen of its officials. This was in violation of international law – which is why officially Israel will not admit responsibility.

I’d kind of overlooked that aspect, no one seems to have criticised Israel for attacking diplomatic premises, in breach of all sorts of treaties, which is a worrying precedent.

Can you imagine the outrage if a “western ” embassy was attacked? (US embassy in Nairobi being a similar parallel I guess)

Yeah I was aware that Palestinians are predominantly Sunni imnotverygood, which is obviously why I made that point.

However I wasn’t aware that the regime in Tehran was such an ‘outspoken and active supporter of the Palestinian cause’, which was the other point I made.

Both Tehran and Hamas intensely dislike the Israeli regime (as the Israelis intensely dislike them) but not necessarily for identical reasons.

I don’t know why anyone would automatically assume that the Iranians and Palestinians are very close just because they both have a common enemy.

Can you imagine the outrage if a “western ” embassy was attacked? (US embassy in Nairobi being a similar parallel I guess)

I think the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aries is a much better parallel. In terms of outrage, at least. Certainly not in terms of who was killed though because in that one it was only civilians.

nickc
Full Member

I don’t think the IDF blowing up any Iranian embassy where-ever it is was a good move whatever the “worth” of the targets may have been*, and nor do I think the lobbing 300 missiles at an entire country is ‘limited’ in the way that some news organisations has suggested that it was.

It’s all relative isn’t it? Firing 300 missiles at Israel which has probably the best missile defence in the world and is already on high alert, knowing that most of them are going to get knocked down, is different to firing 300 missiles at an unprepared location. It’s quite akin to firing 6 missiles at something with no missile defence at all, frinstance.

I’ve seen several reports that General Zahedi, the most senior official killed in the airstrike, was involved in the planning and executing the 7/10 attacks.

The reports are based on statements made by the Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces the in Iran and the Hamas Al-Qassam brigades.

I’ve seen several reports that General Zahedi, the most senior official killed in the airstrike, was involved in the planning and executing the 7/10 attacks.

The reports are based on statements made by the Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces the in Iran and the Hamas Al-Qassam brigades.

And if I was the IDF I would be making statements and releasing “evidence” stating exactly that too.

Whether it’s true or not is entirely a secondary consideration in all this

Israeli Channel 12: The Israeli Air Force is completing its preparations to respond to the Iranian attack https://t.co/NW30giqeXy

— FJ (@Natsecjeff) April 15, 2024

Israel can respond if it thinks thats a good way forward. Israel and Iran can sort it out between them in the pub carpark for all I care. So long as the Uk / the US do not get involved this time and just leave them to it.

Not the IDF

https://www.saba.ye/en/news3318069.htm

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202404043146

https://www.almanar.com.lb/11817775

Not that it made the strike a good idea, as the potential for escalation was (is) huge.

Now is a good time to invest in the arms trade… business is always good, but with recent developments, it should soon be even better!!