My money’s on Hamilton and Merc again just because they have stability. The Honda engine seems to be close on power, but they still haven’t shown they can get through a season without penalties for swapping engines. Ferrari seem to have sorted out their aero problems, so probably the top three will have cars that are so close that it will come down to particular circuits or drivers having a bad day. Merc and Hamilton seem the best at putting together good weekends and still scoring points when they have a bad weekend, so they have to be title favorites.
Obvious problem for Ferrari is that LeClerk can smell the blood in the water and will be determined to conclusively dethrone Vettel, while Vettel will be desperate to prevent that happening. I suspect that rivalry will prevent them being title challengers. Verstappen is very fast, but we still haven’t seen him put a title challenge together over a whole season, so Hamilton’s experience tips the balance for me.
McLaren have a decent car and know what needs to be done to develop it, so they should be closer to the front, but fourth or fifth overall. Sainz versus Norris should be good to watch. Renault should also improve, but they will be challenging McLaren for fourth place, at best. Haas can’t possibly have a worse year, so I put them sixth, Force seventh, with Williams last again and Alpha and Alfa squabbling over eighth and ninth.