Bottom line is it’s like a QI question: nobody knows how this would resolve itself at the ballot box, particularly given the FPTP voting system

Yes – there was reporting yesterday that private polling by Tories had them at 295 to 300 seats despite lead in polls ranging from 3 to 13 points There was a long article in the Guardian about difficulties of poling that didn’t even get down to difficulties of attribution to seats.

Personally, it will be a relief when we get to a GE and proper representative democracy plays out.

After a GE we could be in exactly the same place. Or worse. It’s a step that needs taking, but it might not be a step forward, that’s a genuine worry.

Very pleased that all opposition parties pulled together to (try) and get an extension before stepping into the GE unknown. They all look more trustworthy after that. I’d now vote for any of them, depending on where I got to place my vote. Corbyn now looks like far more like a option for stability, as do those who acted for the smaller parties.

“PRIVATE THINGS ARE PRIVATE!!!” v0.2

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-voter-data

After everything that was done back in 2016… the key individuals not only away with it… they now “run” the country. Forget about a fair election.

“You don’t need to know nothing…”

https://twitter.com/ogmurphy1/status/1171360184817639430?s=21

“PRIVATE THINGS ARE PRIVATE!!!” v0.2

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-voter-data

It’s an interesting piece, but I don’t think Buzz Feed News are any more trustworthy than The Daily Mail, they just have a different bias. I’d wait to see if any other news agencies pick it up and cite sources.

Just this once, and against my better judgement, I am going to engage – even if I am 99% sure the post was a troll….

Whether you like brexit or not

I don’t, and no one in their right mind does either.

you have to admit, Cummings and Boris have played an absolute belter.

I don’t have to admit it and they haven’t. They’re going to end up in exactly the same place May did, but with more red-faced shoutiness.

Pretty much 2 Wk’s time and we will be DONE with the E.U, either by an adjusted May deal, or with a no deal.

No we won’t. It would actually be worse than anything before and the ‘great’ British public will end up hearing a lot more about the EU and Britain’s realistic place in the world as a result. Probably for the next decade at least.

You have to tip your hat sometimes..

See above.

In summary, it was an excellent post you made. Apart from the words.

I’d wait to see if any other news agencies pick it up and cite sources.

Are you dubious that they will misuse data, or just dubious that any journalist would already be onto them? I can understand and join you in the later.

I’d wait to see if any other news agencies pick it up and cite sources.

Are you dubious that they will misuse data, or just dubious that any journalist would already be onto them? I can understand and join you in the later.

Oh no the story is very credible. When I try to work out what Boris / Cummings would do, I think about the worst excesses of Trump and Frank Underwood from House of Cards for inspiration.

No, Buzzfeed is very inconsistent, they sometimes have very good stories, but they also sometimes dress up opinion as fact and rely a lot on “unnamed sources”

Buzzfeed is very inconsistent

That they are.

They did break a fairly big story last week – not sure if that was more by luck or judgement tho.

Just this once, and against my better judgement, I am going to engage

Engaging with the proles? Careful, you might catch something. 🙂

Engaging with the proles? Careful, you might catch something.

His name sounds quite upper middle class to me, Belle Davidstein wasn’t it? So, I think I’ll be alright on that one.

Or is that what he goes by on Pistonheads when he is pretending to be Karl Marx? Or is Davidbelstein another of your aliases?

Sorry. Forgot to add 🙂.

Hi guys

Hi Ninfan

re that request to get gov.uk info, I wonder if we could do a SAR on them?

Ninfan is never back, is he?

It is difficult to tell now that I have updated my killfile. Or have I?

Keep ‘em guessing, I say. Trolls need the affirmation, so the killfile is most excellent. Even better is using it, then saying you haven’t. Or the opposite way around, or the triple bluff. That way the trolls never know if you can see them or not.

#takingbackcontrol

So, anyway, while you were sleeping, this happened. I have tried to condense ten minutes of fracas into the twitter 2’20” limit, but hopefully it gives you a flavour.

NB. 26 seconds in, the @BBCParliament commentator whisper “he’s not going to go”. #Bercow #Prorogation #Silenced pic.twitter.com/ttNd2pG6wl

— Alex Andreou (@sturdyAlex) September 10, 2019

Ninfan is never back, is he?

Not as DavidBelstein, at any rate.

Funny as anything watching leavers turn on Johnson as he slowly realises that
A) no deal is a colossal mistake

& B) Mays deal is the only one that satisfies the brexiteers ludicrous red lines
The only question is how much Foster & the DUP are going to cost the taxpayer this time!

Cummings & Johnson playing a blinder

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (-1)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 17% (-3)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via @ComRes, 06 – 08 Sep

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 10, 2019

Genuine question here.

Now the blond wizard no longer has a majority, aren’t the DUP a complete irreverence??

aren’t the DUP a complete irreverence??

They are rather less important but not a complete irrelevance.
That said their drop in importance is why there is increasing talk about Foster finding herself the latest in a long line of people screwed over by Johnson.

How does having DUP support help at the moment though? Again, genuine question.

Unless he is thinking he needs to keep them inside for their potential help in making a majority after a hung parliament for to general election?

A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.

This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov’t is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs

— Oliver Murphy (@OGMurphy1) September 10, 2019

Oliver Murohy’s source is a twitter account entitled No 10 leaks, but in the rush to push anything negative, many journalists retweeted it without doing even cursory research, Grieve and Blackford fell for it too. Wishing something to be true don’t make it true.

on the other hand I’m sure they’re just keeping yellowhammer secret because they feel it would let down remainers feelings to see how glorious the sunlit uplands will be 😉

DUP only matter depending on which polls you believe, comres, panelbase & deltapoll say hung parliament, Yougov & Opinium say Tory majority

Johnson has a clearer message than May (maybe) but the longer her 2017 campaign went on the worse it got & Cornyn looked better , johnson started his campaign early 10, 12? weeks to go but election ru!as not in force yet, which should give him a hand
Johnson looked physically tired & worn out the last few days, he was 14pts clear on Yougov a couple of days ago, it’s his to lose….

Wishing something to be true don’t make it true.

Conversely, wishing something to be false don’t make it false.

Any time you see “a source said…” you can treat it with a pinch of salt unless the reporter has solid prior history of their reports being accurate. I’m unfamiliar with Mr Murphy’s output, is that the case here?

Here

Murmurs in the Irish news last night that there has been some movement on both EU/Ireland’s and UK teams on the backstop.

It looks like the DUP’s influence may be waning which can only be a good thing.

Well that’s it then, Boris will have his deal, brexit on the 31st of October followed by an election, there won’t be a huge economic hit, as such Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next enemy of prosperity, the opposition collapse in disarray – failing to fight a cohesive alternative to the narrative of a purged Tory party full of hard right shitehawks and then labour will be hammered in the election.

Labour will fail to get their brexit and they will fail to get into power.

Is it too early for binners to say “I told you so”?

DUP will rail against that (that’s a billion well spent, I assume no refunds) – the question is whether there are enough hardline loyalists that would see it as a call to action again, as this could easily be spun as the first step towards a united ireland. It could be just as much a threat to the GFA as a return to an inland border.

The DUP are happy to have different abortion and marriage laws, and the island of Ireland is treated as a whole for animal imports hence no BSE ban.

treating NI differently is perfectly normal, how it is spun politically is an issue. In theory treating NI differently could be economically advantageous.

in the same paper

All Ireland deal leading in the Telegraph too, with a Stormont lock. We shall see.

If we have left the EU on a Boris deal before the election it will really change the dynamic.

Wow. Just heard Andrea Loathsome on R4.

Who would have thought a starched knickered numpty like that could have sourced some LSD and dropped it prior to an interview!

If we have left the EU on a Boris deal before the election it will really change the dynamic.

Would the ERG headbangers vote for it?  Would Labour go for it?  He could have the best deal in the world but if an unpopular minority PM can’t sell it to an empowered opposition then it won’t change much.

Johnson proposals, stops way short of what Ireland & EU want

No way ERG & DUP will go for what Ireland want

& No reason for Labour to back it as they’ve forced Johnson to extend, so if he doesn’t, it’s on Johnson

It’s a tragedy about stormont; bitter grievences, fraud and political cowardice have seen the assembly shut down at the very time it is most needed , it’s a good job house of commons is better than that 🙄

Would the ERG headbangers vote for it?

Despite being the issue that gets all the attention (probably as it’s so insurmountable and contradictory) the backstop issue is just one of many things that the ERG won’t vote for

Their list of demands is pure ‘cakism’ that the EU will never ever agree too.

They’re basically asking for the EU to agree to essentially open borders while the UK is allowed to have completely different criteria with workers rights, environmental controls and food standards, amongst other things.

Basically, they want to still have access to the EU single market while obeying none of the rules and have no regulatory alignment at all

So the ERG will never vote for anything short of that. Boris knows this.

They’re like petulant toddlers who just shout NO! in reply to any question or offer. Yet they’ve been the ones dictating policy for the last 3 years, which is the main reason that we are where we are

The Brexit Party have taken out a full wraparound advert on the front page of the Daily Express this morning offering Boris Johnson an election pact. Fair to say they are not messing about pic.twitter.com/I21nrHYbe9

— Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) September 11, 2019