Is it actually possible to crash out without any kind of deal?
Wouldn’t we need to construct more customs infrastructure pretty much overnight? … and this seems to be necessary under WTO rules?

The government has made no realistic prepration for this.

Surely the most realistic option is that this boring but enourmously expensive limbo carries on even longer…

Perhaps that’s the idea, the Leave voters were, on average, quite old after all.

Yes its quite possible to crash out without a deal and right now its the most likely option.  ” nothing is agreed till everything is agreed” means no transition period even.  Without a solution to NI let alone a proposal on customs etc acceptable to the EU then yes – we crash out with no trade deals with anyone and rely on WTO rules

Don’t WTO rules require a hard border in Ireland which won’t exist?

Has anyone else passed the point where this is now starting to get really really worrying on a personal level?

Yes – way past. What is worrying is the possibility that MrsJ and even MissJ may have their status as residents in the UK put in doubt. Without going into personal details, MissJ’s citizenship rests on a decision made by the Home Office some time ago which is not dissimilar to the Windrush situation. If they should review her case for any reason she may be in bother. Unlikely, maybe, but catastrophic if it should happen.

Yes – WTO rules mean a hard border in NI

Think I’ll morph into a fly and pop into chequers on Friday just to witness the “discussion” first hand

Who would enforce the hard border?

Will all our planes be grounded?

Will the door be shut in our face at Calais?

Will the country grind to a halt?

Will the shit hit the fan next march or 2 years later?

Anyone would think the EU negotiators listened to our puffed-up idiots saying ‘threaten a no-deal Brexit and watch them quake in their boots’, and decided that would work equally well for them…

Zippy  both sides of the border have to enforce it

No two year transition

Planes grounded yes, all happens in march unless the Tories get their finger out and start actually negotiating the possible rather than their wishlists of unicorns and magic

This is on display in my local spoons, not that we need to be reminded of the wetherspoons stance.

Has anyone else passed the point where this is now starting to get really really worrying on a personal level?

Yes.  The work I do is quite likely to dry up in the long run, although we are seeing work that needs to be done to re-implement systems that are currently handled by the EU.  But I do work for a large global company so perhaps an internal transfer is likely.

Personally?  Yes the recruitment difficulties we are having getting staff nurses.

That Weatherspoons post is like a metaphor for Brexit itself

In the future we’ll be serving drinks that are considerably shitter than the ones we’ve got on at the moment.

They may be shit, but they’re British shit, so everyone’s just going to have to suck it up and pretend that it’s all absolutely bloody brilliant!!

What was stopping Mr Weatherspoon from doing that years ago?  If trading with companies within the EU is such a ball-ache for him why wait till now to do it?

Christ “Tim internal market Wetherspoons” don’t doubt the mans ability to serve cheap beer to the masses, but he is not going to create high value employment.

Told you folks this shit needs to run its course and really create some pain.

Awesome – cheap beer!

That’ll be handy if I lose my job in high performance manufacturing due to Brexit. Always a silver lining and all that 🙂

This is on display in my local spoons, not that we need to be reminded of the wetherspoons stance.

When do the Guinness pumps get turned off?

This time next year we could all meet to toast ‘Taking Back Control’ at our local Spoons with that Kickstarter 9.30 am pint of Carling?

Carling, Green King IPA and John smiths for everyone!

Yay! 🤢

perhaps we could all meet up and share some fine European beers on their doorsteps

but they are not stopping Prosseco ? too much profit on that .

Flat warm beer for everyone .

do we reckon Wetherspoon customers can read a letter that long ?

First they came for the wetherspoons pre lunch drinkers, but i did not speak out because I’m not a pre lunch drinker.

Then they came for the mid afternoon lunchers, but i did not speak out.

Then I couldn’t get a decent beer after work and I had to have it imported.

To be honest, I live in Yorkshire – plenty of good beer here. Mainly from breweries Tim won’t have heard of.

But I still won’t be bobbing into Whetherspoons for a drop of claret even if he does keep on serving it.

but they are not stopping Prosseco ? too much profit on that .

That’s what they call hypocrisy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/honda-faces-the-real-cost-of-brexit-in-a-former-spitfire-plant.html

Anyone for a Worthington E?

Wait.

“Kopparberg has said that it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit”

That seems monumentally unlikely to me.  Is there any source for this or is it another lie?

Also,

“the 93% of the world that is not in the EU”?

How’s that worked out, then?

And and and… dear god those last few claims.

What was stopping Mr Weatherspoon from doing that years ago?  If trading with companies within the EU is such a ball-ache for him why wait till now to do it?

Absolutely nothing that I’m aware of. The guy is a complete arse.

An arse with an agenda and a cross to burn, it seems.

Also,

“the 93% of the world that is not in the EU”?

How’s that worked out, then?

508M population of the EU

7.6Bn world population

6.69%, so he’s factually correct.

Maybe we should invite the large numbers of poverty line RoW inhabitants that make up a large chunk of the 93% to come over and enjoy a pint in their local Wetherspoons – the gammons would love that!  They can fund this by bringing us stuff to buy, free from the restraints of such annoyances such as duties, quality standards and safety. Hip hip hooray!

I’ve tried Mongolian beer. There’s a reason Mongolia isn’t a renowned beer producing region.

The reason is it tastes terrible!

like to see those numbers ^^^ normalized to spending power

I happen to have the normalized spending power outside the EU North America China Canada Australia etc

= **** all

I think you’ll find that aircraft makers in Namibia and Afghanistan will be queueing up to buy all those British manufactured wings that Airbus no longer require

I’ve often wondered what the potential impact of hard Brexit would be overall as you hear random ‘this is cheaper under x rules’ from both sides and whilst my hunch is that the logistics at the very least will make things more expensive I’ve not seen a calculation. It seems a couple of organisations have made a stab at this now:

The Oliver Wyman report illustrated the point with the cost of Irish beef, commonly sold in supermarkets. It wholesales at about £3.70 a kilogram. Argentinian beef, which is currently £5.50 per kilo because of EU protectionist tariffs, would come down to £3.50 a kilo after Brexit. At the same time, Irish beef would go up to £3.90 per kilo if tariffs were imposed.

But as Brewer pointed out, such a free trade agreement on Argentinian beef would only result in a 20p per kilo saving on beef – not enough to compensate for the higher cost of imports of other goods such as dairy, cars parts or electronics from the EU.

Full report: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/04/brexit-greatest-negative-impact-regions-outside-london

Ok so all the hard evidence says Brexit is bad for thr UK, all the benefits of leaving are on the face of it conjecture.

So putting the Tory Party dogma to one side (there are not many Tories that truly support Brexit anyway) what is the financial benefit to the few who actually want Brexit?

oldmanmtb

For some its investment opportunities, for others its the chance to get rid of employment protections, for some its about getting american healthcare firms that they are investors in into the NHS.  Follow the money!

So basically Enemies Of The People.

Never waste a good crisis!

Cameron and Osbourne used the post-crash environment to take a hatchet to the public sector

I firmly believe that the hard right wreckers like Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Redwood are deliberately trying to engineer the financial crisis that anyone with any sense knows a hard Brexit would be. They actively desire chaos! As a cover for what they really want to push through

So as the pound goes into freefall, flights are grounded, and every motorway is gridlocked with nose-to-tail artics, they would use the situation to take the same hatchet to workers rights, the benefits system, the NHS, environmental controls and god knows what else.

You’d be hearing a lot of government statements saying “Due to the unique circumstances we are faced with no option but to……”

… privatise the NHS

… reduce corporation tax to less than 10%, or 0%

… slash the minimum wage

… suspend workers rights

….etc, etc, etc

Thats their true agenda! And always has been!

Theres no way on earth any progress will be made on this much publicised Chequers away day on Friday. Because the headbangers don’t want answers. They want their Hard Brexit Crisis