Donald! Trump!

Sadly after a ‘normal’ Trump performance without totally imploding – my money is now on him winning. Not the popular vote, but getting over the line never the less.

  I also think Trumps rantings will put off dyed in the wool republicans who are not MAGA nutjobs

He has been putting off some MAGA nut jobs too,

What is possibly interesting is there a few of the more extreme Maga voices who’ve fallen off the Trump wagon as a result of some of his more recent free-wheel brain farting.

Take the whole Stop the Steel movement to date – Trump has never conceded that he lost the vote, continually insisted that there was fraud – people around him have been jailed, lost millions, are in debt of millions, fox has lost 3/4 of a billion over it, some folk died. Then he just says  that actually he lost ‘by a whisker’ and basically, casually, pisses over everything those people have sacrificed for him.

Nick Fuentes take on the whole situation is pretty illuminating – I’d normally not say ‘hey listen to what Nick Fuentes has to say’ but – listen to what Nick Fuentes has to say – (actually just read it and imagine the whinging little shitbag)

“He’s admitting… ‘I lost by a whisker’. So what was the point? What’s the point of any of it you lost in 2020? Seriously? What are we even doing anymore then? You’re a loser… you lost to Joe Biden, you deserve to be charged. If he admits that he lost, then that actually vindicates the… DOJ charge against him because the charge is that he knew he lost, but he lied to defraud the people. That’s the DOJ’s charge. So why did we do stop the steal?” .

“Why did anyone go to January 6th? Why is anyone sitting in jail? Why did anything bad happen to anybody? Why did everyone get censored? Why is everything bad that has happened to the people that are involved? Why did that need to happen? If you’re just going to walk it all back and say, ‘Oh, I lost.’ Well, it would’ve been good to know that before 1600 people got charged. It would’ve been good to know that before I had all my money frozen, put on no fly list, banned from everything, lost all banking and payment processing. It would’ve been good to know that.”

If its an idea that gets any traction – coming from the hellmouth pretty much of the whole white supremacist, misogynist schtick that underlies the Trump base and other figures start to echo the same sentiments  it could be quite wounding for Trump electorally

It was looking pretty certain that Trump would win when he was up against Biden, now it really is a lot closer, Harris still has a mountain to climb Im still not sure that America is ready for a female president, theres so much casual sexism (fundamentalist christian influence) that even the Tories would balk at, but Trump just gets weirder as he gets older and the likes of Vance & co dont help him

Im cautiously optimistic, though a close win for Harris will be open day for accusations of fraud and Jan 6th mk2, Trump wont go quietly and will no doubt try and anoint one of his kids as heir to MAGA, but Im not sure how that will sit with the GOP

interesting times

Trump dynasty, unpleasant thought for the day x(

It was looking pretty certain that Trump would win when he was up against Biden, now it really is a lot closer,

I’ve never thought so, Trump would never pick up the undecided vote, just under Biden they were not going to vote – but I still thought Biden would scrape it.

Now though, I think that Harris is a shoe-in, and if for nothing else than only because the full extent of the abortion issue is slowly coming into the conscious of ordinary non-partisan Americans.  Driven by the current ‘Abortion after Birth’ bollox, it’s really making them realise that they’ve only this one chance to stop the direction of travel.

I’m cautiously optimistic in a TJ style, but it hinges on getting the young female vote out, which is possibly where Taylor Swift’s endorsement may help get them registered and voting.

That Nick Fuentes thing is a potential ticking time bomb for Trump if it takes hold. Excellent point that it is exactly what the charges were brought on. He’s either guilty, or he keeps protesting against the steal, can’t be both.

There’s a lot of angry armed MAGA folks have lost too much to be happy to see Trump just shrug and walk away.

im a lot more positive than i have been for much of this year. Trump seems kinda worn out. His schtick just isnt working on Kamala.

Trump Media stock dropped 17% after the debate. That dropped his paper worth by about $200 million by my calculation.
https://meidasnews.com/news/trumps-stock-nosedives-after-disastrous-debate

I am also finding Harris more and more likable whereas I never warmed to H. Clinton at all

NOt just the young women Morecash – its also the voters of asian descent and other minorities.  Those two groups – young women and those of Asian descent could be the real key here

I am confident she will win the popular vote but will she have enough to overcome the republicans structural advantage?

Watched a couple of clips finally, which mostly entail Harris goading Trump into an massive elephant trap by saying “This is a trap, why don’t you stumble into it you big dummy” all the while holding a sign that says “Trap- this way” and watching as Trump does just that. It should be sound-tracked with the sad trombone noise every-time. All the while Harris tries her hardest not to laugh out loud by biting on her knuckles.

reeksy
Full Member

Am i the only one that just heard Trump suggest that Harris would allow abortion “probably after birth”?

He said the same thing in the first debate too

ads678
Full Member

Taylor Swift is publicly endorsing KH, if only 14 year olds could vote…

Swift fans cover a huge range. Probably more importantly they’re mostly ages that are underrepresented at the polls. It’s going to be way, way easier to mobilise X young voters than it is to move X voters from blue to red. And it’s also one of those chaotic factors that’s really hard to poll accurately for- because young voters are least likely to vote in states they consider to be fundamentally red. But if you get a swing going, then there’s this big silent bloc that can materialise seemingly out of nowhere, and that people don’t pay much attention because they think they’ve already succesfully marginalised them.

When Texas goes blue- probably not this time- it’ll be younger voters that do it and again it’ll happen faster and more decisively than is predicted because of that momentum effect, the less impossible it feels, the more likely it is. And blue texas makes a republican president pretty much impossible, or at least creates the need for a massive change in attitudes and party approaches and probably system.

maccruiskeen
Full Member

He has been putting off some MAGA nut jobs too

Just saw a poll result reposted on reddit- of registered republicans who voted trump last time and intend to vote trump this time, only 69% think he won this debate. That’s an incredibly low score for that demographic, just disastrous. He couldn’t have achieved that with a merely bad performance as Biden could, it had to be a performance that specifically switched off his fans. They like winners, they like bullying confidence, they like it when he looks strong, and last night they didn’t like what they saw at all.

Worn out is a good description.  If his circus act doesn’t work he doesn’t really have much to go on, and she’s got more experience debating people who argue than him –

He lost that and he knows it .  There won’t be a third.  VP debate should be interesting

Hateful dude is **** toast and he’ll be gone for good within five years. The idea up there that his dynasty might persist in politics is laughable. Shitgibbon at least had ‘charisma’ and that’s the only thing that got him in the Whitehouse.

The idea up there that his dynasty might persist in politics is laughable.

I think ivanka is canny enough to make it work, but what happens to the GOP after Trump that will determine that, they’ll want to keep his MAGA fans somehow (but it will destroy them)

https://x.com/susie_dent/status/1833810661219905891

Susie Dent nailed it again

Trump always was his worst enemy.

I can imagine his advisors constantly telling him to stick to policy, not to adlib, over and over and over… all the time knowing all Harris has to do was make an intentionally childish comment about the size if his rallies or whatever and let his inflated ego take him down a rabbit hole into immigrants eating pets and the like.

He just can’t help himself, even with the presidency and the equality huge prize of effectively escaping justice by being president at stake, he just can’t change his DNA.

I bet he is being an absolute bastard to anyone around him today as it’s all “their fault”.

Any one see his eyes moving all over the place. Just shooting all over the place.

I wonder what percription drugs do that

It’s always been about his ego

He hates thought of losing, the polls are still 50/50 but he’s rattled
I wonder what dead cat he’ll throw up to distract from this

All I’ve taken away from watching bits of the debate and reading up on it is that Trump looks like an old fence that’s due for a fresh coat of Cuprinol. That and a politician in this **** mad world we now live in can claim that Haitian immigrants eat dogs (and cats) and that abortions after birth are a thing.yes they are, they’re called murders. How did we end up here FFS? Someone should’ve walked on stage and slapped him for those two absurd remarks. Something, something electric sharks

I wonder what dead cat he’ll throw up to distract from this

Are there any left? I thought they’d all been eaten.

Very powerful stuff here from the parent of a child killed in a road accident, who is now being used for anti-immigrant political gain. He won’t get his apology though.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/11/trump-vance-ohio-aiden-clark

That is very upsetting. I can’t imagine how those parents feel. Using the death of a child for low-rent political gain is nothing more than I expect from these ****.

Trump had some glorious, great, best ever expressions during the debate. The classic smile-not-smile, the wide-open eyes, trying-to-look-intelligent-but-really-not. But I really like this one – it shows what he thought of his own performance.

Very powerful stuff here from the parent of a child killed in a road accident, who is now being used for anti-immigrant political gain. He won’t get his apology though.

And Vance doubled down when asked about it – FFS how cruel and insensitive can you be.

it shows what he thought of his own performance.

Its reminiscent of this image

When you think of the real dramas a crises of his presidency – Covid and 1 million deaths and 40 million out of work,  the race riots and so on – the only time he showed any sign that he’d expended real emotional effort was in having to face up the the press waiting for him after he returned to the Whitehouse after a bit of  a poor turnout at a rally in Tulsa

“the silent majority is stronger than ever before” he declared to an arena full of empty seats, Silent and invisible.

It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet

This is one of the lunatics Donald called on to prep for the debate. pic.twitter.com/dzHl5QKUM5

— Jack E. Smith ⚖️ (@7Veritas4) September 12, 2024

That is right wing philosophy in a nutshell, they can see the wheels falling of the bus instead of planning what is required to fix it, they are straight into backstabbing mode to position themselves to be the next driver without giving a **** that the bus is going to crash.

Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum, but it doesn’t look like he and his etam are capable of not **** up anything they touch. From what I can see even the right wing media heads are starting to distance themselves from the outcome, as someone mentioned above it is part of their personality to attach to winners and distance themselves from losses.

It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet

We can laugh now – but inevitably not long from now thats what a page from Hansard will look like 🙂

Fox news are up in arms about the real time fact checking that put Trumps nonsense in the proper perspective.

This debate was a microcosm for the absurdity of the whole election.

Trump was petulant and impotent and clearly incapable of hitting the talking points he’d been coached about, because he’s too thin-skinned to skirt the obvious bait questions. Then he got caught up parroting a stupid right-wing conspiracy theory about immigrants eating pets. It would be a brilliant absurdist parody if it wasn’t disappointingly real. He later complained that Harris knew what questions she would be asked, implying that ABC news were somehow assisting her, apparently without realising that all the questions were standard fare and IT’S HER JOB – and his – to have answers to all this!

A complete display of incompetence on Trump’s part. And yet almost half of the USA will vote for him irregardless*. “Leader of the free world” my arse. Putin and Xinping must be laughing – and why not?

Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum,

Is there any momentum at the moment?  If anything Trump is the one making gains in the polls.

Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.

The Dems obviously got a huge boost when Biden stepped down but since then things seem to have gotten very flat.  Remains to be seen if the debate moves the needle in terms of polling.  Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.

I’m really not getting my hopes up for this.

 Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.

clips from the debate take a while to percolate through to those that didnt see it

That will help Harris as she got the better of him

you can hope that the Loomer/MTG scrap is indicative of the Trump campaign knowing they are blowing it, having been a shoe -in just a few months ago, and that this will precipitate more angry off message Trump

still going to be very close and its hard to be optimistic

Here’s a forecast map made using fivethirtyeight.com polling averages.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

You can see the original forecast with undecided states shaded bronze here:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

What I’ve done is simply made every undecided state where Harris is ahead by any amount a light blue and every undecided state where Trump is ahead by any amount light red. This shows that Harris is slightly ahead according to current polls, but it’s very close. Harris pretty much has to win Pennsylvania, where she’s polling 0.7% higher than Trump, but she can afford to lose Nevada and one other swing state. Trump really has to win Georgia and Arizona, plus two or three of the Harris leaning swing states. Basically, a nationwide 1 or 2% swing to Trump would make it very, very difficult for Harris to win.

latest poll has 3 point swing to Trump just giving him the lead in Michigan ( a place where his talk of tariffs on foreign cars goes down well)

That would give Harris the tiniest of leads and just 1 more state to flip for Trump and it’d be over

Its going to be a loooong 8+ weeks and Harris will have to work her arse off to keep in the race, nits absolutely hers to lose, the worry is she has peaked too early and doesnt have much higher to go.

One thing I have wondered for a while is how many women in republican families are going to secretly vote for Harris.

Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.

Well ths is the thing, the dems are almost certain to win the popular vote, but it’s all about the strange electoral college system they have there.

One thing I have wondered for a while is how many women in republican families are going to secretly vote for Harris.

And also this… that’s almost impossible to quantify, I guess the ‘Taylor Swift’ effect will also add to that, but who the hell knows.

I’m feeling quietly conifident on my £20 bet for Kamala, I stand to get about £55, where as the same bet today would only return about £36.

Twitter is mostly a cesspool these days but this did make me lol

https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363

https://x.https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363

https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363

https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363

Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog

^ Beggars belief

Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog

Links?

It looks close but Harris slightly ahead:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

Del +1

To think that despite the last eight years or so of Trump’s antics people are still drawn to him.

Says an awful lot about the nation and its level of education and critical thinking.