Donald! Trump!

Thanks, interesting.

Just checked the bookies and it’s literally 50/50, now, but interestingly, the bookies seem to very much favour the Dems winning the popular vote.

Gawd, the UK flavour of democracy is bad enough, but the US version is nuts…

surely it can’t have any truth in it

I dunno, Trump was happy to try to blackmail Ukraine to try and get some dirt on the Bidens – that and the felony and sex offences, i really wouldn’t put anything past him…

Hillary Clinton had a bigger lead over trump in the poles  at this point in the run up to the  2016 election than Kamala has presently, and went on to lose in the electoral college

Hilary was an unpopular figure even on her own side, and IMO it was the FBI public statement on the emails investigation that sealed her fate. I think it would need something similar for the Trump team to swing the momentum back to them, so lets hope there is nothing hiding in the closet to pin on Harris that would gain traction.

fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.

What UK bookmakers say is inaccurate at best.  They want people to put money on an even chance Trump as they’ll make their money there

fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.

Last election, yes.  This election I’d say no.  Nate Silver no longer has anything to do with fivethiryeight and is now doing his own thing.

https://www.natesilver.net/

There’s a shocking tale on the Rest Is Politics US about Trump phoning Netanyahu and trying to get him to hold off on any peace deal as it would be ‘bad for his campaign’

I’ve seen little about it on this side of the atlantic; surely it can’t have any truth in it or it would be another illegal act, not to mention morally repugnant;.

Trump and Netanyahu are the definition of morally repugnant so perfect bedfellows

boomerlives
Free Member
There’s a shocking tale on the Rest Is Politics US about Trump phoning Netanyahu and trying to get him to hold off on any peace deal as it would be ‘bad for his campaign’

I’ve seen little about it on this side of the atlantic; surely it can’t have any truth in it or it would be another illegal act, not to mention morally repugnant;.

There’s a precedent for that, I only found out about it from the amazing PBS series about the Vietnam war. Nixon torpedoed a peace deal in Vietnam when he was running for president purely to boost his election chances.

Wiki has some good info on it too from memory. Absolutely shocking stuff, inhumane basically. :/

fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.

Last election, yes. This election I’d say no. Nate Silver no longer has anything to do with fivethiryeight and is now doing his own thing

This

It’s still wide open in my opinion, but, trump is under pressure now and that is where he will make mistakes. He seems to be under greater scrutiny for his bat shitness, his misogyny and racism. The weird label seems to be sticking, and the Dems seem to be going at him rather than his policy. He doesn’t like that at all, and he then lashes back with his Stoopid views on display.

He’s been told to stick to policy but his maga crowd reportedly want the trump rantolio at the gigs, so off he goes.

We are way past pointing out his total unsuitableness for office. That’s obvious. It’s about turning off the support, stopping the finance flowing, making him look a loser.

He looks more like a plonker than ever, and he hates the laughter and ridicule.

There’s a precedent for that, I only found out about it from the amazing PBS series about the Vietnam war. Nixon torpedoed a peace deal in Vietnam when he was running for president purely to boost his election chances

It was even worse than that. He was told by the military that the war was absolutely unwinable and that he had to negotiate a peace, but sacked it off to increase his chances of re-election. God knows how many people died as a result of that decision.

If anyones not watched that Ken Burns series on the Vietnam War then it’s absolutely essential viewing

Trump is not going to get any saner between now and November.  Nikki Haley’s at 245/1 at the moment.

Might be worth a tenner.

He’s been told to stick to policy but his maga crowd reportedly want the trump rantolio at the gigs, so off he goes.

Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him.

Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him

I hadn’t really thought about it before but it’s basically stand up

The Democrats have won every popular vote but one in the last 32y.  Republican politics are simply no longer popular.

The only loss was 2004 when Bush was re-elected riding high on TWOT and the Invasion of Iraq.

Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him

I hadn’t really thought about it before but it’s basically stand up

Interestingly Trump has switch from big stadium rallies to some quite small venues. The same shtick in a small space really changes how his material comes across.  In the stadiums he has to project his voice more and he adopted this style thats half way between a rousing preacher and someone straining on the toilet.

In a smaller space, without that, he just sounds incredibly glum. The same materials that sounds like a rant in front of a big crowd sound like a list of wimges and petty grievances that even he seems board of hearing

Fox live streamed an hour of this and he just sounds so glum. The most animated thing about it is the folk who drew the short straw to stand behind him shuffling awkwardly swaying from side to side becuase their feet are getting sore

What a rambling mess. “Kamala is so far left it’s unbelievable. You’ve never seen anyone so far left” and “Kamala is Marxist communist. This country isn’t ready for a communist president”.

That might wash with the hard-core MAGA demographic, but it’s the undecided in key states that he needs to convince, and surely they can see how ridiculous he’s being?

surely they can see how ridiculous he’s being?

You have more faith in the sophistication of the American electorate than me. The key states might not quite be my-mother”s-mother-is-also-my-duagher full bore redneck, but they are not that far behind.

What UK bookmakers say is inaccurate at best.  They want people to put money on an even chance Trump as they’ll make their money there

I’m not sure I follow your logic, the odds on Trump will reflect the odds on Harris so the book will have an overall margin of around 10% in the bookies favour.  Most of the bookies seem to think that it’s currently a coin toss with each candidate 10/11.

Current betting odds

US Presidential Election Winner

Kamala Harris 1.95

Donald Trump 2

Winning Party

Democrat   1.91

Republicans  1.91

I think if you’re going to look at odds it’s best to look at the betting markets (betfair, polymarket, etc) since the bookies are only concerned with balancing their book.

I use https://electionbettingodds.com/

I saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday.

I still can’t understand why.

 saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday

A mtb mate who’s recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes – think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could heed move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?

 saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday

An mtb mate who’s recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes – think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could he’d move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?

Even Dick Cheney…  yes, that Dick Cheney… is voting Democrat to stop Trump.

Mr Cheney said that “in our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump“.

“He can never be trusted with power again,” he adds.

“As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.“

Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn’t win so the sentencing will still go ahead? If Trump does get in then I’m assuming all charges will be instantly dropped as he’ll pardon himself.

An mtb mate who’s recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes – think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could he’d move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?

I had a similar rant from a lad I occasionally ride with last wkend, I’d already heard his anti vaccine/covid was a hoax stuff but he went full on Trump is gonna win by a landslide and will save the western world if ‘THEY’ don’t kill him 1st. I asked him who exactly ‘THEY’ were? He started ranting about the radical far left and I quickly ended up telling him I didn’t actually want to hear his conspiracy theories after all

AFAIK Trump can only pardon himself for Federal crimes, so not the Stormy Daniel’s or the NY business fraud

Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn’t win so the sentencing will still go ahead?

He can’t appeal it to the Supreme Court until after sentencing so the SC can’t bail him out.

Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn’t win so the sentencing will still go ahead?

My understanding is that the Court has declared that the Court is apolitical and this close to an election any sentence could be seen as political interference. This seems sensible in that the conviction and sentence will immediately be appealed and, practically-speaking, nothing would happen before the election in that case

Trump seems to benefit from the publicity of the trials, so delaying the sentencing will deny him stealing the news agenda. So probably a good thing. Nice move by the judge 😉

My understanding is that the Court has declared that the Court is apolitical and this close to an election any sentence could be seen as political interference.

I think not least in the sense that Trump’s political stock seems to rise with each charge and prosecution, At the moment any act by any court or prosecutor has the same effect, electorally, as putting millions of dollars into Trunp’s campaign funds as it give him so much free publicity.

You don’t want anything that would motivate sympathy for Trump, however misplaced, in the immediate run-up to election day.

He would definitely want the martyrdom angle in the final few days of the campaign.

Accidentally caught a few clips of Trump on the news while looking for the remote control. Such a terrible human being!

Has he actually done anything good in the world, anything at all which wasn’t motivated by hatred or selfishness?

I can summarise 604 pages of comments with a ‘no’.

Apparently the live debate: Harris V’s Trump is live tonight,  2am UK time on ABC news.

Not sure If I’ll still be awake for it but I’m going to try to be.

Mics off when the other is speaking, but also no notebooks or consultations allowed either… should be spicy!

I’m quite interested in just how incoherrent trump will be, he really does seem to be struggling to speak outside of his safe spaces.

I am hoping that Harris does a smiling assassin on him.  Remains polite and truthful and winds him up a treat.  As an experienced prosecutor this should be fairly easy.  a bit of gentle mockery perhaps as well

Feels like this should be a big moment but I’m really not going to get my hopes up that things are going to turn around.  Because at the moment the indicators are not looking great.

**** me it’s a shitty time to be alive.

a bit of gentle mockery perhaps as well

It’d be fun to watch….for those of us on the outside and the ‘mercans already confirmed as democrat votes.

But we are talking about America. Subtle is not their strong subject at the best of times and the grim reality is her job is to bring over the mouth breathers that are just about savable. Gentle mockery will go straight over their heads.

Perhaps – but it will rile Trump a treat – he is notoriously thin skinned.  Even better if his supporters do not understand what she has done

Its the undecided voters she needs

Mics off when the other is speaking,

An interesting aspect of the last debate that had passed me by at the time – although the mics were muted that didn’t shut Trump up. A possible / contributing factor in Biden’s poor performance was the Trump was still giving it full Trump even when his mic was off so Biden was being distracted and heckled whilst he was speaking buy stuff the audience weren’t hearing. I wonder if people would have judged his performance differently if they could hear what he was hearing whistle he was speaking.

Harris will have to fight fire with fire against Trump to a degree but the real impact will be from clobbering him on abortion rights and workers (union) rights. He has a real weakness to be exploited on both of those.

He’ll try to hit her on migration but will also go hugely off script about her colour and gender which is good for Harris, not bad.