Trump will not be able to run IMO because of his legal difficulties.
Don’t underestimate his ability to distance himself from, or delay any proceedings until the point at which pursuing them could be claimed to be ‘interfering with the election’. Remember that primary campaigning, if Trump announces a bid, starts way earlier than the actual presidential campaign. The wheels of criminal justice grind very slowly in the US – there still seems to be only the SDNY case pressing on with any sort of urgency, I very much doubt we’ll see anything that could arise from Jan 6 in time.
Looking at it another way, Trump may actually need to run because of, rather in spite of, his legal problems. Both for using the impending election as a way of deflecting/delaying any legal proceedings, civil and criminal, and so he can grift millions in fundraising to help pay for his defence.
also the Democrats will not make the same mistake of putting a weak candidate against him if he does try to run
Well, Biden would have to agree a one-term presidency, as he has first dibs on the nomination. If he drops out, who do we have?
Kamala Harris – would be great in my view, but I’m not sure she will do well enough in the swing states. Pete Buttgieg – another fantastic performer, but again, they will weaponise his sexuality against him.
Amy Klobuchar? Elizabeth Warren again? The Democrats are not in great shape if Biden and Harris aren’t performing well.