it will be good to see an outsider wins.

Bernie Sanders?

Too close to call but it will be good to see an outsider wins.

And that’s about the most sensible reason that’s been given for putting any weight behind him.
The rest is just delusion.

If you picked the outsider at random from the population who can tie their own shoe laces etc. maybe but Trump. Is not an outsider, he is a businessman (serial gambler) who is part of the system maybe not the political machine but the outer circle of money.
Being an outsider doesn’t make up for the other very dangerous stuff.

Someone who can get the Clintons to come his daughter’s wedding is not an “outsider”.

I expected remain to win by a Rizla thick margin. I was wrong on that one.

Might be proved wrong on this, doubt it though. Can’t see the merican aspirationals and vast middle classes being convinced by his huffing and puffing converting to actual votes. We shall see could be a hat eating year for me 😆

I think Trump’s responce would be he pays hundreds (billion) in various real estate and sales taxes through his business plus of course all the employee taxes via the jobs he’s created. Also it’s said he didn”t pay Federal taxes, nothing mentioned about State taxes. In addition to Chris Christie, Rudolph Guiliani (ex mayo of nyc who feally clean up the city) said he was a genius for not paying tax, Trump doesn’t make the tax code he just follows it.

The Clintons came to the wedding as Trump was a major donar to Democrats at one time as they would have sucked up to him as a result.

In addition to Chris Christie, Rudolph Guiliani (ex mayo of nyc who feally clean up the city) said he was a genius for not paying tax, Trump doesn’t make the tax code he just follows it.

Massive leap there Jamby, have you read his tax returns? Nobody knows if he is following the rules as he isn’t releasing his records. The IRS are investigating him which suggests it’s not all above board. If he is such a genius he could release his records so we could all see how much of a genius he is or….

The Clintons came to the wedding as Trump was a major donar to Democrats at one time as they would have sucked up to him as a result.

Which makes him part of the establishment not an outsider, and for Republicans why did their candidate give lots of cash to their political opponents! Is it because he is an oppertunist simply looking out for himself?

GrahamS – Member
Bernie Sanders?

He was completely bulldozed by gang of Clintons.

captainsasquatch – Member
And that’s about the most sensible reason that’s been given for putting any weight behind him.
The rest is just delusion.

It could be Trump winning by 50.1% while Clinton losing at 49.9% coz it is that close. You only need one person to blink and the other will fall. I am afraid we are all delusional however you think you may be.

mikewsmith – Member
Being an outsider doesn’t make up for the other very dangerous stuff.

A risk worth taking as the alternative is worst.

It could be Trump winning by 50.1% while Clinton losing at 49.9% coz it is that close. You only need one person to blink and the other will fall. I am afraid we are all delusional however you think you may be.

You know it doesn’t quite work like that, it’s not about % it’s about state performance (and he is behind in the swing states in the demographics needed to win them and he has 2 more debates to shoot his feet in)

and for a simple explanation

State of play
Solid Democrat 15 States, 188 Votes California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine-01 (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
Likely Democrat 3 States, 25 votes Maine-AL (2), Minnesota (10), Virginia (13)
Lean Democrat 5 States, 59 votes Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
Toss Up 4 States*, 70 votes Florida (29), Maine-02 (1), Nebraska-02 (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18)
Lean Republican 3 States, 33 votes Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6)
Likely Republican 3 States, 27 votes Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Utah (6)
Solid Republican 18 States, 136 votes Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska-AL (2), Nebraska-01 (1), Nebraska-03 (1), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

270 Required
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-27/us-electoral-college-explainer/7787472
Clinton could win without any of the “Toss Up” States (272 from the Solid/Likely/Lean)
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
He is down in most swing states too

mikewsmith – Member
and for a simple explanation

It looks like a forgone conclusion is it not?
That the next President is President Clinton II then?
If that’s the case I don’t know why people get so work up with Trump.
Let see how long the Merican can stand another Clinton or Democrats Presidency.
Should be good to observe …

It looks like a forgone conclusion is it not?
That the next President is President Clinton II then?
If that’s the case I don’t know why people get so work up with Trump.

Nothing is gaurnteed unfortunalty.
The reason people are worked up is probably due to the way he is pedalling lies, making stuff up and using a lot of the same tactics other hate preachers etc. use. He is promising the impossible with no means to deliver it. One of the greatest oxygen thieves of his generation.

Let see how long the Merican can stand another Clinton or Democrats Presidency.

Better than a Trump one, probably less war.
The balance will come in the other results, with a democrat majority in both houses it may be that catalyst to pass some ground breaking legislation in the US (catch up the europe in the 80’s) around health, tax, education, equlaity, environment and gun control.
A progreessive America would benifit the world.

Trump is more than a deluded windbag. He is a very dangerous man because he has an obvious narcisistic personality disorder. The traints that this gives him makes him very dangerous as he is incapable of any empathy, incapable of understanding he can make a mistake and liable to temper tantrums.

I’ve just attended a rally for Mike Pence.

I’m not really sure how to explain the whole thing. It was rather odd and I think I’ve lost a little bit of faith in humans.

Vote for “Mike2Pence” 😉

Was it a bet or a dare?

There is always the first time you might be bankrupted in business or to go into severe financial difficulty but the question is will you start a business again if you are bankrupted?
Bear in mind the next few years could be turbulent and the risk might be high with every chance of making a mistake (we all do), so there is always a likelihood you might be bankrupted for the first time.
The second question is whether you can cope with bankruptcy Trump managed but can you?
There is no certainty in life one minute you could be flying high the next minute you could be bankrupted or unemployed etc … can you cope?
Therefore, you will only know yourself when you are bankrupted for the first time and perhaps you will see Trump differently after that.

Only a Trump fanboi could spin 4 bankruptcies into a strength.

FOUR TIMES.

That’s not a strength.

That’s a sign that you were in the wrong business..

Or it was done for tax purposes.

mrlebowski – Member
…FOUR TIMES.

That’s not a strength.

That’s a sign that you were in the wrong business..
On the other hand, that’s four times from something like 500 businesses (or so I understand) he has put his name to (i.e. those which are/were considered to be ‘his’ businesses). In that light, fewer than 1% going bankrupt over a career seems not too bad, especially when you consider TJ’s last point, it’s not unknown for people to collapse businesses on purpose to minimise losses.

Not that I’m defending him, mind you, I can’t decide whether he’s just a prize womble or some sort of sociopath.

If he’s such a great businessman hoe come all his casinos in Atlantic City underpeformed in comparison to other casinos in the area?

Trumps money:

Washington Post

WP fact checker

Max Ehrenfreund of The Washington Post’s Wonkblog documented that Trump’s business performance was actually relatively poor given the massive real estate assets that he inherited from his father. Citing an independent evaluation, Business Week put Trump’s net worth at $100 million in 1978. Ehrenfreund said that had Trump gotten out of real estate entirely, put his money in an index fund based on the S&P 500 and reinvested the dividends, he’d be worth twice as much — $6 billion — today.

Trump:

Good at turning himself into a brand.
Not so good as an honest businessman.

Basically, he’s the Kim Kardashian of politics……hopefully without the sex tape!!

Sadly, I believe he is in a playboy video 😯

mrlebowski – Member

Only a Trump fanboi could spin 4 bankruptcies into a strength.

FOUR TIMES.

That’s not a strength.

That’s a sign that you were in the wrong business..

6 btw, according to Politifacts.

But it’s not so simple. The gambling failures were (apparently, I’m more or less reposting) funded mostly by borrowing, in a fairly risky sector. Some look like bad investments tbh, competing with themselves, but the bottom line is some businesses are a risk, they can’t all pay off. Bankruptcy itself is a sign of failure in a business but not necessarily a parent company or owner, especially when it’s other people’s money you lose. And what’s really obvious when Trump talks about business is it’s all about whether he gained or lost, not whether the business did, his idea of success is to get out with some money.

Where it gets dirtier is how the bankruptcies really came about and the impact they had. Frinstance, in 1993 Trump raised $100m in bonds that was supposed to go to the casino business, but half of it was used instead to repay his own personal debts. And then in 95 he went public and also raised funds through more bonds, then again took that money straight out of the company and used it to pay his own debts and release his securities. Then again in 1996 where a further public offering and more bonds were used to buy a part of the company that Trump had previously guaranteed with one of his other companies. Again transferring risk away from Trump to investors and the public. (he was sued, and later settled out of court).

Then there were various bouts of circular lending- Trump borrowed from a bank then when he was going to default on that loan, borrowed from one of the casinos to stay afloat. And while the casinos lost money he took salary and bonuses of millions of dollars, borrowed money from the businesses that was forgiven, sold Trump branded products to them for enormous markups. There’s a lot more similiar arrangements- they were run like his own personal toy and wallet even though they were public companies. He sold a personal stake in one of the casinos back to the casino for over market price frinstance, in 2004, shortly before the casino filed for bankruptcy protection, which caused a $500m loss for other stakeholders.

And then when he was finally forced to give up control of the companies, and shortly after the Taj Mahal went out of business, he sued the company because the closed casino was damaging his brand 😆

When the bankruptcies occurred it was a blend of crippling, expensive debt- of which so much had gone to Trump personally or elsewhere in the business- and underperformance, which Trump always blames on the atlantic city market even though most of the industry was growing revenue while his shrank.

So it’s not “he went bankrupt therefore he’s a bad businessman”- though, that’s not to say he’s not. It’s a lot more complex and frankly a lot worse than that. Trump says “I did great in Atlantic City” “I made a lot of money there”- and possibly he did after all the possibly-legal fund exchanges and loans and stock deals and bankrputcies and writeoffs are done… but he lost a lot of other people’s money, from investors to small businesses to employees, driving others out of business. He’d probably say “because I’m smart”

(and possibly, millions of dollars of his dad’s- funny how he mentions that “small loan” that he got to set up, but doesn’t mention the illegal cash injection that kept him afloat in 1990. It’s not clear whether Fred ever got that back- there’s no paper trail obviously!)

Sounds like he’s an expert on Ponzi schemes then – should be the perfect person to manage public finances 😉

> Basically, he’s the Kim Kardashian of politics……hopefully without the sex tape!!

Sadly, I believe he is in a playboy video 😯

Indeed he is.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-appeared-in-a-2000-playboy-softcore-porn

Thankfully it was just a cameo and The Donald didn’t actually take part in the main action (involving twin sisters who “bare their sex appeal and lead you on a sensual journey of discovery”).

Though you do have to wonder how the American media would have reacted to a female candidate that appeared in a playboy video promoting incest.

Let’s hope whoever wins the US Presidency will win with narrow margin. Then they can keep each other busy while sticking their noses in the own business. The world does not need a US world police for interfering in other sovereign nations’ domestic affairs. Implanting the so called “freedom” mindset has resulted in the near total collapse of some middle east countries.

I think there is a balance to be struck chewkw.

Using planes, bombs and missiles to force “democracy” on countries that didn’t particularly ask for it but happen to have oil reserves is clearly not very helpful.

But likewise ignoring breaches of international law, allowing dictators to commit genocides, or permitting terrorist groups to take over countries against the will of their people is not particularly conducive to world peace either.

Anyone else think that Assange is probably dealing like mad right now to swap not releasing any info with the dropping of charges in Sweden?

Is anyone else disappointed that this isn’t a thread about a new political special edition of Top Trumps based on that there Donald’s biggest gaffes / lies / sexist moments / racist comments etc?

Dab the advantahes of vicariously shared experiences on STW is we don’t have to watch, we can take your word for it

Northwind you are describing the classic US private equity model. Trump hasn’t personally gone bankrupt 6 times, what he has done is start dozens of businesses eaxh in seperate companies and some of them have failed, yes he may have put his name on a big plaque outside but legally he is not financially responsible.

The issue here is the US tax code allows you to carry forward losses from year to year for personal taxes. So if youbare Trump why not take advantage of that ? He didn’t make the rules and neither Republican or Democratic Presidents have changed them

Channel 4 piece, as its says at the end Americans hate paying taxes and the fact The Don has swerved them gets a “Chapeau” from many.

[video]https://youtu.be/P9_LNqS__1E[/video]

He didn’t make the rules and neither Republican or Democratic Presidents have changed them

No, he didn’t make the rules, but there is a presumption on his taking advantage of them and paying a minimal amount of tax where he should, in my opinion, pay a fair share of tax so as to ensure businesses don’t go bankrupt.
Seems fair to me. And you Jamba, is it fair to expect him to pay his fair share rather than taking huge sums for his personal fortune?

Not releasing the info is clearly seen as suspicious. Lack of info is also seen as some as no wrong doing (which is quite funny and if the boot were on the other foot) by his supporters.

Did we get the cock up with the PTSD vets

At an event with veterans in Herndon, Virginia, Mr Trump called for better mental health services for those returning from combat, saying while many are “strong,” others “can’t handle” what they have seen on the battlefield.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-04/trump-defends-remarks-on-veterans-and-mental-health/7900698
or His TV crews are tearing coming out

“We were in the boardroom one time figuring out who to blame for the task, and he just stopped in the middle and pointed to someone and said, ‘You’d f… her, wouldn’t you? I’d f… her. C’mon, wouldn’t you?’

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-04/trump-repeatedly-demeaned-women-on-hit-show-the-apprentice/7899898
It’s OK he used the STW misogyny defence

Trump’s comments ‘playful banter’

or his charity
Donald Trump’s charity ordered to stop fundraising in New York state
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-04/trump-foundation-ordered-to-stop-fundraising-in-new-york/7899618

Perhaps he may regret being in the public eye so much

Captain – if the Government of the day thinks the tax system is unfair it can change it. It’s not up to individuals to pay more than they are legally obliged too. Unrealised capital gains are not taxed anywhere, not in the US not in the UK. If Trump owns assets which gomup in value and doesn’t sell he oays no tax. If he did generate a $916m tax loss 20 years ago by “selling” assets that is smart as fhe US allows those tax losses to be carried forward indefinitely. Thats a stupid piece of tax law but no one changed it.

BBC did a Trump v Clinton poll at the Tory Conference yesterday and Clinton came out the clear winner. Interestingly John Snow from Channel 4 News said he thought Trump would win.

It isn’t standard and expected practice for individuals to publish their tax returns, so it’s a complete non issue for them whether other people think that aggressive tax avoidance is unacceptable.

point being missed again

Kaine: Why won’t he release his tax returns?

Pence: We are answering the question about business thing.

Kaine: I do want to come back to this.

Pence: His tax returns showed that he went through a very difficult time but he used the tax code just the way it was supposed to be used and he did it brilliantly.

Kaine: How do you know that?

Pence: Because he has created a business that is worth billions of dollars.

Kaine: How do you know that?

Pence: This whole riff about not paying taxes and people saying he didn’t pay taxes for years, Donald Trump has created tens of thousands of jobs and he has paid payroll tax…”
The people who know are The Donald and his accounting team, everything else is speculation (with some emphatic leaping in front of bullets)

Pence: This whole riff about not paying taxes and people saying he didn’t pay taxes for years, Donald Trump has created tens of thousands of jobs and he has paid payroll tax…”

That’s me sold.
C’mon Trumpy.
Look at me Mom!

I wonder why John Snow at C4 news believes Trump will win ?

I wonder why John Snow at C4 news believes Trump will win ?

I don’t know, I guess he might have explained it at the time or did you stop listening at that point?

Trumps vice, Mike Pence, seems to be in some kind of weird denial:

Less than 12 Hours Post-Debate: Clinton Uses Pence’s Debate Words Against Him In Stunning New Ad

Ouch

Figured that one was coming, we could do with a forum fact check 😉