A positive, can do attitude leading to a left wing utopia?

I think we can safely file that under complete bollocks, yes.

A lot of areas like ours are in a sorry state economically, but we’re in a weird limbo. Entire industries (hospitality/events/music venues etc) are already dead, but we just don’t know it yet as furlough is keeping them on a subsistence level of life-support

Once that ends the true economic decimation will quickly become apparent. The business failures and job losses are going to be off the scale. It’s going to be worse than the 80’s in the North

I do envy you north of the border as you have an administration with a bit of political clout that acts as a buffer to the casual, callous indifference of Westminster and the Tory’s. We’re unfortunately not so lucky

Bit of an unpopular opinion I realise, and I really do sympathise with anyone struggling at the minute. But I can’t help feel that we could do with a cull of cafes/coffee shops. There’s just so many of them everywhere. How do they all make money? I swear some streets are entirely composed of coffee shops.

But I can’t help feel that we could do with a cull of cafes/coffee shops. There’s just so many of them everywhere. How do they all make money? I swear some streets are entirely composed of coffee shops.

If they are full of customers then I guess they have found their market.
As a convenient mid day break for the travelling worker or recreational shopper I understand. But some people go out ‘to get coffee’. That is beyond my comprehension, I have perfectly nice coffee at home.

It’s not just coffee shops!

How many decent independent pubs, restaurants and bars do you think are going to be left? How many music venues?

Dirt Factory (the fantastic indoor mountain biking place) in Manchester just called it a day today and is no more. All these businesses will be gone. It’s not just economics. The social impact on our communities is going to be absolutely huge

How do they all make money? I swear some streets are entirely composed of coffee shops.

tourists obviously! Personally I have very little interest in chain stores/clothes shops/Poundland etc but will pop into a cafe/bar etc if I’m in town. Plus I think they’re probably easier to run than a clothes/homewares/toy shop etc where you basically have to use a crystal ball to guess what’s going to be popular when you order stock 6 months in advance, then realise you’ve ballsed up and end up having to punt it out at a loss! Coffee shop: make coffee, cakes, sell them. Much simpler 😀

Independent businesses fail, large chains can retrench and then expand.

Binners is right parts of the North are little more than Zombie economies. Added to this there are people like me who have just gone **** it why should i invest cash and energy? Lets wait and see what Brexit/Covid looks like in 2 years time.

Anyone who knows me will confirm i run a highly ethical business, thing is i am turning into mini disaster capitalist due to the reasons i have listed elsewhere. I am a product of the current environment created by Brexiteers and the ERG…. dont worry the irony is not lost on me.

I think the structural failure in the UK economy will not be unemployment and failed business – it will be the huge reduction in tax revenue (corp PAYE rates VAT rental) and this is a true Tory nightmare not this little blìp called covid

Surely the appeal of coffee shops (pre Covid especially, remember that time eh?!) even if you’re a coffee snob, would be to socialise? I’d consider myself fairly lacking in close friends, but prior to March 2020 even I could manage a coffee and a catch up with friends once or twice a week!

I think the structural failure in the UK economy will not be unemployment and failed business – it will be the huge reduction in tax revenue (corp PAYE rates VAT rental)

You’re right about the tax take. That’s part of the perfect storm we’ve got coming

There was a prime example on the news earlier. A company manufacturing posh coffee machines for cafes and bars.

He said his average quarterly tax payment to HMRC was £125,000. Obviously absolutely nobody is buying big posh coffee machines at the moment so his last one was £6,000.

He’ll clearly have to lay off all his staff when furlough ends,so they’re no longer paying tax and are dependent on benefits

Spread that across the economy and….

Surely the appeal of coffee shops (pre Covid especially, remember that time eh?!) even if you’re a coffee snob, would be to socialise? I’d consider myself fairly lacking in close friends, but prior to March 2020 even I could manage a coffee and a catch up with friends once or twice a week!

Genuine question – (Pre COVID) why did you choose a coffee shop, over somebody’s home, or a pub/bar.

Genuine question – (Pre COVID) why did you choose a coffee shop, over somebody’s home, or a pub/bar.

Although I’m not the poster of the comment you asked the question of I could have written their post so here’s what might drive me to a coffee place over the others sometimes (we also entertain at home and go to the pub):

1) It might be a work contact/meeting
2) The kids may have decimated the house and I’m too lazy to tidy it up and it’s too early for beer (and generally pubs serve shit coffee)
3) I really like coffee and cake, what pub sells cake worth eating? No pub around here that’s for sure.
4) I have had a friend or two with a history of dependency – never assume a pub is a good place
5) Its another place to go – like a bit of variety
6) It might be a nice place to ride a bike to
7) It is run by a friend whose business I can support

@binners

When all this blows over sometime in the 2050s head up to the economic wonderland that is Fife (genuine LOL, Kirkcaldy looks like it’s been hit my multiple carpet bombing campaigns even prior to Covid/Brexit, and then there’s Methil) and we’ll go get a burger from the high street.

Dont worry, it’s non of your artisan shite from the new place. Assuming they manage to survive and open. We do have artisan shite but it’s mixed in with a range of offerings.

Genuine question – (Pre COVID) why did you choose a coffee shop, over somebody’s home, or a pub/bar.

No idea how widespread round town this is. But quite a few seem to be purposely using the high street simply to support the high street. Again, that might not survive the end of Furlough.

Edinburgh on the other hand. Dramatically reduced numbers of office workers and no tourists. That’s probably closer to what your seeing in the north. I’ve only passed through on three occasions for health care so can’t really asses that situation. Plenty of folk on here that are that might know?

Whilst I don’t do it, my parents frequently used to make a trip to the town to have a coffee – they’re retired and it’s what retired people do I guess! Gets them out of the house etc – suspect they’re fairly typical. So there is certainly a market.

Edinburgh on the other hand. Dramatically reduced numbers of office workers and no tourists. That’s probably closer to what your seeing in the north. I’ve only passed through on three occasions for health care so can’t really asses that situation. Plenty of folk on here that are that might know?

Edinburgh is like a ghost town. Sept there were a few tourists. I haven’t been up to town for a few weeks but even in sept with the students and a few tourists the numbers of people on the streets were obviously down a huge amount compared to usual. ( festival usually sees a million plus visitors to the city)

I think the effects while mainly bad will actually have some good hidden – for example anecdotally you hear of air b&bs now going back to long term rentals so it might slow the hollowing out of the town centre as a place to live and work.

However the money the tourists bring is a large part of why Edinburgh is a nice place to live with so many great bars, restaurants and pubs.

It would also appear to me that in Edinburgh people are attempting to follow the guidance fairly well. Perhaps reflected in our lower infection rates?

Edinburgh is like a ghost town

Southampton was similar most of the time except during the run up to Christmas when people were clearly going in to shop.

The area surrounding the offices at the North end of the city centre has been insanely quiet on the few occasions that I’ve been in to work and that office traffic plus the Solent university is what presumably supported a lot of independent and franchised food and drink places at that end of town, business lunches, coffee meetings, lunchtime sandwiches, missed breakfasts.

It would also appear to me that in Edinburgh people are attempting to follow the guidance fairly well. Perhaps reflected in our lower infection rates?

Generally the same here. We do seem to have higher infection rates in the more deprived areas, I’m guessing tied into housing with higher occupancy rates.

presumably supported a lot of independent and franchised food and drink places at that end of town

Which I think is why the high street here has been as busy as it has. It’s not new economic activity, it’s relocated economic activity.

We do seem to have higher infection rates in the more deprived areas, I’m guessing tied into housing with higher occupancy rates.

The same as all other health inequality issues – poverty is one of the main indicators of poor health.

I too worry that although we’re already seeing unemployment rise, we’re still heading down the pit of knock on effects of both Covid and Brexit. As others have said, employment, personal and business spending, and tax take lag the actual activity.

It seems we’ve a long way down yet – or maybe it’s a reflection of my negative feelings as we head into this lockdown.

@piemonster – ah right, know it quite well. My sister is in Kinghorn. In fact, my dad played for Burntisland Shipyards in the third round of the Scottish Cup. This comes up every Christmas. Though not this one, sadly.
I grew up near Cupar.

Aye, I’m in Edinburgh – up next to Edinburgh uni. Was pretty busy at the end of last year, but most students aren’t back now so it’s quiet here. Was wonderful over the festival – can be a nightmare normally.

I’m not working so generally spend about 4 or 5 hours a day traipsing over town, just for something to do. Whole place is dead – busiest bit is Great Junction Street! Was hoaching yesterday – even saw some jakeys getting arrested by police with dogs.

Weirdly – I’m not hearing about too many places shutting down yet. I would have expected more. The issue may be that it isn’t getting reported?

@ayjaydoubleyou dunno, I guess a combination of:

It’s too early to go to the pub
There’s cake
Some friends have kids so they want to escape the house
It’s social, you bump into other people you know when you’re there.
To support local independent businesses run by nice people.

Never really gave it much thought tbh….it’s just a ‘normal’ thing to do isn’t it? (I’m not talking about Starbucks or Costa here! Although clearly lots of people enjoy going there too!)

@piemonster

I’ll take you up on that fella. Then you can have a return visit and we can head out for a ride in the Manchester inner-city hell in which I live 🙂

Sorry if I came across as being an arsey bastard yesterday. Bad day. I’d just been out for a ride with my mate who’s just lost his restaurant so it was all very real. He’s in a bad way. He’s now got all the hassle with the liquidators, HMRC and all the vultures. It’s hard watching one of your best mates sat there sobbing because of the huge amount of stress he’s under and you can’t even give him a hug. I’m just imagining how many business owners in this country are presently staring down the same barrel. Just going to meet him for a walk on the moors now so I can get him out of the house and keep him occupied with some fresh air and exercise so he’s not sat there stewing

Hold on. Just today I was reading some presumably northern chap on this very forum saying we just need a positive can do attitude and we’ll all be some sort of left wing utopia.

Were you talking about me here? Nice of you to take my comments on a completely separate subject completely out of context and apply them here. Positivity isn’t going to change economics, government policy will. We need that to happen now, not in future. Binners is right, the economy is f****, not just here but all over the country, and the blame can be squarely laid at a government which refuses to use the powers they have to support businesses and people. I’ve said repeatedly that the economy could be underwritten by the govt for the duration of the pandemic. They haven’t done that. Why haven’t they done it? Ideology.

To be fair I doubt Starmer would do this either, because the centrists in labour are just as bewitched by the idea that deficits and debt are bad as the tories are. Consider this though, had labour won in 2019, we’d almost certainly have a UBI now, a ban on evictions and mortgage foreclosures, much greater support for businesses, the covid effort lead by NHS and public health professionals instead of private contractors and spivs, and a PM taking the issue seriously rather than making jocular quips about sombreros or operation last gasp. Not a utopia, just a responsible government which prioritises people over profit.

Nice of you to take my comments on a completely separate subject completely out of context and apply them here.

Apologies, I’m in a generally pissy unfair frame of mind. No excuse.

Then you can have a return visit and we can head out for a ride in the Manchester inner-city hell in which I live

I’ll fit the lifestyle vehicle* out with bull bars, spot lights and machetes** in preparation.

*10 year old Transit

**I don’t have any so I’ll bring a pruning saw

Sorry if I came across as being an arsey bastard yesterday. Bad day.

No bother, I’m having one today. Primary source of work here is events, it’s not been as bad as what’s happened to you. But only because of cancellation insurance.

@binners Good man, you sound like a great friend to have. Hope your friend comes to terms with it in a safe way.

Just back from a big walk, and just some thoughts. Sorry if it’s going a bit off-piste, but…

If you’ve got friends out there who are one of the many who are in a perilous financial position at the moment or just struggling with lockdown, please stay in touch with them and (as subtly as possible) check that they’re ok. If you’re suffering from depression, I know from personal experience that you withdraw, and in the present circumstances, it’s very easy to do that. But it’s not healthy

It’s not like we’re snowed under with options. We can’t pop out for a pint or anything. We’ve just been out for a few hours and talked everything over. I hoped it helped. His wife just texted me to say how much better he seemed when he got home. It doesn’t take much to make everything seem a bit less overwhelming. It seems just a few hours with one of their mates reminding them what a **** they are 😀

@piemonster – even a stroll around our inner-city urban hell helps 😉

Looks dreadful Binners

That’s a good thing you did today, good post too.

Salford appears to have had a bit of tectonic activity since I was last there. Is that the Bury Rd? 🙂

@Sandwich – you recognised it! The tower you can see there is Strangeways

Holcombe, Peel Tower on the top. Nice ride.

Had a bit of a shock today. Went into the city centre of Cardiff to visit the bank and was stunned at how many shops on the main street, Queen St, were empty or being emptied. Huge swathes of them, independent and chains, just gone. There are now big gaps in the street between shops that are still there, even more gaps right now between what is open currently too. It’s normally the end of January when places go out of business so we still have that to come.

Anybody who is exposed to the retail world is in for a very tough time.

Moronic question: how does extending the stamp duty holiday help anyone but the reasonably well-off, when there are countless small businesses on the edge of going under along with the self-employed struggling, not to mention that anyone whose payslip says “furlough” on it can’t get a mortgage anyway.

Whereas Amazon etc pay the square root of sod-all and the worst that they might get is a bump in corporation tax, which they can avoid anyway.

I suspect there are quite a few people rushing to get sales complete before it runs out. Spreading that out a bit will help. But, yes, it’s mostly a tax benefit for the well off. Is that surprising?

Flaperon
Free Member

Moronic question: how does extending the stamp duty holiday help anyone but the reasonably well-off, when there are countless small businesses on the edge of going under along with the self-employed struggling, not to mention that anyone whose payslip says “furlough” on it can’t get a mortgage anyway.

It doesn’t, but it helps house sales and house prices which helps them to pretend that the economy’s doing OK. Standard operating procedures for at least the last decade

Yep, every time they announce a new Help To Buy scheme or Stamp Duty holiday prices just go up by the corresponding amount or more, pushing people to take on even more debt or just be priced out of the market.

A sticking plaster to make people think they are rich with a house ‘worth’ £kkkkk but only really benefitting the people already on the property ladder. The people like me who are still yet to buy their first home just see the price of entry increasing every time.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/14/great-britain-high-streets-lost-more-than-17500-chain-stores-in-2020-covid

My local high street isn’t counter acting that crap show, although it is still doing well.

We did have a closure recently, the space is already filled.

I do envy you north of the border as you have an administration with a bit of political clout that acts as a buffer to the casual, callous indifference of Westminster and the Tory’s. We’re unfortunately not so lucky

It’s why they hate NS, theyre afraid of her and can see she gives them a showing up ,which mainly highlights their inadequacies. Constantly calling for her resignation over the Salmond affair, though the fat git who’s overseen the coronavirus debacle, nobody is calling for his resignation.

I heard there’s been a significant increase in the number of cash purchases, wealthy people snapping up distressed assets for their family or portfolio thereby widening the gap. The housing market seems very tight, you can sell but you might not find what you want.
I dread what’s around the corner once the eviction ban is lifted but I’m sure Rachman plans will already be in place.

Disaster capitalism a work Bill

I’ve no idea how both me and my partner are still working (events ffs) but I’m glad for every day we are at the minute

Rumours of no overseas holidays this summer will destroy the aviation industry. Consider that Heathrow alone employs 50,000 people. If this happens we will lose airlines and regional airports I fear.