Nearly 3 million unemployed sounds like the early 80’s but in reality it will be much worse than that. The headline figure is likely to be higher and that’s not taking into account the gig economy and the ‘barely’ employed.

I really feel for those in the restaurant or bar/pub industry. I can’t imagine the stress of pouring in all that investment to make your business safe in the almost certain knowledge that there was a second lockdown coming down the pipeline. It can only be seen a sign of the personal investment beyond the financial that the proprietors of independent businesses have. Having either spent years building something from within a community or having just started a business with a similar intention.

Notice how many of the bigger brand name restaurants shut up shop pretty quickly. Relying on the name of some TV chef or whatever they don’t have the same societal relationship as your local pub or restaurant, they can just cut their losses and sit the downturn out an wait for the next round of venture capital.

The industry I’m most familiar with is the clubbing industry, which didn’t even have the awful choices to make that bars and restaurants had. The entire clubbing industry just fell under the axe. As an ‘industry’ though, it might be more resilient, in that it has always been a fickle industry, experiencing upturn and downturns not necessarily in line with broader economic conditions. (I say this with many friends who have seen their businesses and careers frozen entirely at the moment)

As we come out of this covid nightmare, many sectors will struggle to recover due to a huge reduction in collective expendable income but I think there could be an explosion in the music and clubbing industry come next spring. Many major and established venues may have closed their doors for good by then but speaking as an ex promoter, all you need is an empty space and a sound system and you’ve got a business. The demand will be uuuuge, and not as restricted by expendable income as other areas are. The demand will be driven by a need, I bet there’s more than a few old ravers on here who haven’t been to a clubbing event for years who are dying to get their rock’s off right now…nevermind the restless youth.

Rishi is saying that the governments own figures are predicting a rise in unemployment to 2.7 million next year. I’m taking it that they’re erring on the conservative side with those figures.

Something to look forward too

Yep, I guess the V shaped recession is going to be more U shaped after-all.

I get the feeling Covid has been pretty handy for the Tories in some respects, with furlough extended to March when things are supposedly going to be getting back to normal, I don’t see why we have to lose a million+ jobs between now and June because of Covid.

I’d bet the hospitality sector is going to get battered over the next 4 months, but it’s retail that’s going to take the brunt of it. High Street retail has been in decline for decades, and for a lot of retailers they only really make any money in the run up to Xmas. This year is going to be a disaster for them with more consumers than every buying online and buying less. There are major retailers, household names who are right now praying for a good Xmas to keep them afloat. January is going to be a rough ride.

I think the reality is, with 37 days until Brexit and still no real deal/no deal in place it’s going to be a disaster, it was a stupid thing to do in the best of times and it’s positively insane now and with polls now showing that as many as 75% of people would cancel it now if they could, the only reason we’re going ahead with it, is our Government was elected off the back of it.

with furlough extended to March when things are supposedly going to be getting back to normal, I don’t see why we have to lose a million+ jobs between now and June because of Covid.

Because companies will go bust due to other overheads they are committed to, not just staff wages. Loans, rent, maintenance, light, heating etc. – the list goes on.

There was a smarmy American economist from the Adam Smith Institute (so beloved of the Tory Party) being interviewed about it on the radio earlier.

In that cold, callous analytical way they have, she spoke of the upcoming tsunami of bankruptcies and job losses as ‘creative destruction’. I’ve heard them use the same term with regard to Brexit. We know that Rishi and this lot buy into that theory.

The trouble is that with the people about to get hit (and I’m personally dreading what the next 12 months will bring), theres nothing remotely ‘creative’ about it. There is only destruction. Lots and lots of it. with all the misery it brings.

You only get to even talk about these concepts in such a matter-of-fact, dispassionate manner if your position of wealth and power means that you’re safely insulated from their effects and have the capital available to take advantage of any new opportunities that may arise.

It looks to me like they’re planning on granting the same level of empathy for those about to lose their livelihoods as they applied in the 80’s.

I ****ing loath these stone-hearted, callous, compassionless bastards!

The theory of creative destruction has come in many guises over the years, ‘who moved my cheese’ is one version, annother is anti fragility. These theories have relevance with regards to how we individually deal with changing circumstances. When applied as policy it translates from ‘who moved my cheese’ to ‘let them eat cake.’

Destruction isn’t creative, reconstruction and reinvention is creative. I’m convinced Osborne and Cameron’s austerity policy was inspired by such nonsense, I know they are fans of Nassim Taleb who wrote a book called ‘Anti Fragile’ at the end of the noughties, they got one of the it interns to read it for them and used it as a philosophical excuse for a policy of callous disregard.

Society is going to go through a fundamental change the likes of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes directly because of covid. To ride that fact like that lady from the Adam Smith institute did is disgusting, like surfing on a tidal wave of shit.

creative destruction

FTFY.

1.4 million extra in poverty as a result of Coronavirus economic impact – 700,000 now and 700,000 only kept above the line because of the temporary extra £20 a week in UC

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/30/almost-700000-driven-poverty-covid-crisis-uk-study

We now have almost 1/4 of the country in poverty.

How do we get out of this hole, and with Brexit to come…..

We now have almost 1/4 of the country in poverty.

Reminds me of the quote about America, “a rich country full of poor people”.

And one that we’re following because the useful idiots were mobilised to support something that will harm them.

And one that we’re following because the know-it-alls sat on their arses while feathering their own nests for 20 years

Ftfy👍

know-it-alls sat on their arses while feathering their own nests for 20 years

This. Until we get serious about alternatives there’ll be no change. The economic collapse is now starting to gain momentum. The retail sector is now well on its way, the hospitality sector not far behind, and then commercial property. Irregardless of brexit the economy is about to fall off a cliff. This is what a depression looks like.

The only saving grace is the continued use of QE, but that’s mostly being used to prop up the banking sector to prevent a systemic collapse, and lots of people are making lots of money out of it. Must be nice being a millionaire banker having your salary and bonus funded by the magic money tree.

Reality is now beginning to bite – hard.
johnson and his acolytes in denial about the true effects on the economy; the detachment from reality shown in the recently announced £1k payment to wet bars – what a pathetic insult.
I had hoped the govt would recognise the need to re-balance the UK economy, develop plans and provide substantial financial backing.
What is their vision for the UK’s future economy?
What do we get? Nothing.
The retail sector will change structurally to online and ‘dark shops’ for fulfilment.
Hospitality will be massively reduced.
Those two sectors combined will cause major headaches for local councils – much reduced income from business rates and car parking; how to re-purpose vacant shops; how to keep the tumbleweed at bay unless, of course, they’re happy to see an explosion in charity shops, bookies, tattoo parlours, vaping shops.
In parallel the demand for their services is increasing rapidly.
As for out of town shopping centres, they will look unattractive when tenants end their leases leaving vacant units with no takers for them.
Key tenants in shopping centres – typically John Lewis, Debenhams (until today), House of Fraser – are revamping their operations so expect more bad news.
Local councils have, in attempts to generate new revenue streams, invested in smaller/local shopping centres and hotels; no doubt these looked like sound investments at the time but now are more like duds.
At the same time we have stock markets moving steadily upwards.
This will end in tears – and worse.

I agree with Franks last statement, we are going to see a huge rise in stockmarket values from 2021 into 2022 then it will collapse as there is little or no “real value” the same will happen with property- although agricultural land could see a big adjustment maybe as much as a 50% + drop sooner.

The UK economy post brexit will be shored by huge QE but and its a massive but the current government simply does not have the balls or brains to make the big investments/changes required- there is simply not a single MP including Rishi thats got the management skills required, they have all been “educated” to manage decline during the bad times and improve their wealth during the good. They are at best landlords with no skills to create and fulfil markets.

As soon as the markets get anywhere close to peaking cash shares, pensions, pau off debt, mortgage, downsize as much as you can, because whats coming over the hill will ruin many peoples lives for the rest of their lives.

The wealth transer in real terms is not to the few fat arsed Tories it will be China and the USA that take the power. The EU is going to have a tough time we on the other hand we dont stand “snowballs chance in hell”

The party is well and truly over – little did we know it….

So unlike the advisory threads on the subject then, piling ones life savings in vanguard/fidelity not a good idea now then?

Agree on the pub thing, thats so insulting it surely cannot be real.

Was cycling home from my girlfriend’s today (UC ain’t coughing up enough for fuel or public transport) and saw some diggers demolishing the multistorey car parks at RBS’ headquarters near the airport. Kinda suggest WFH is high on the agenda.

Don’t forget that all that QE is wrecking the future values of pensions – some of mine have dropped 15% in value in the last 12 months.

The consequences of a low wages economy are going to be very poor pensioners – the peak of the post-war baby boom is going to retire in the next 10-12 years. A lot of pension funds are exposed to the commercial property market. Without any economic stimulus / growth it simply means that the cake’s going to get sliced even thinner unless we get busy planting some magic money trees or there’s going to be a cut in state pensions.

dovebiker, a cut in the state pension is massively unlikely in the foreseeable future.
The triple lock combined with a vocal and motivated group who can be relied on to vote in GEs present a formidable obstacle.
As for occupational and other private pensions, I agree they will likely take a hit.
Will definitely be interesting to see which funds do well over the next 5 years.
I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?

I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?

FOMO. But that markets can stay irrational for a long time…

dovebiker, a cut in the state pension is massively unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Given that the UK lacks a sovereign wealth fund and that state pensions are funded from NI contributions we’re going to reach a point where simply due to population demographics and stagnant wage growth we could reach a point where outgoings exceed income. One of the ways out of course is through economic growth, but to achieve that we’ll probably require a huge influx of immigrants to take on jobs and look after an ageing population. But to bring us back on topic, hypothetically if there was a pandemic where deaths were particularly skewed to the elderly…

As Ian Blackford pointed out to Boris at PMQ’s, there are still 3.5 million self-employed people who haven’t received a penny in government support since March when their industries were shut down, and we’re now seeing an increasing number of suicides as a result.

Boris gave his standard bullshit answer which roughly translated as ‘I don’t care’

I’d imagine owners of hospitality businesses won’t be far behind with their massive thousand pound grant to make up for losing their busiest trading period. Thats really is just giving them two fingers

where simply due to population demographics and stagnant wage growth we could reach a point where outgoings exceed income

Paying pensions is not dependent on NI income. Pensions, as with all other govt spending will be funded through money creation, in the form of debt, and a govt deficit. Reducing pensions would be a purely political decision, not an economic one.

I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?

And they should be

https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-much-should-you-invest-in-annuities?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

If they are buying low and investing on a 5-20 year timeline they aren’t going to lose anything.

values from 2021 into 2022 then it will collapse as there is little or no “real value”

Expand please.

And they should be

US and UK treasury bonds have almost a 0 interest rate and in some cases are even negative. Why wouldn’t investors by switching to shares? That’s why the stockmarket is inflated, there’s nowhere else for investors to put their money. It’s a direct result of QE, because it’s QE which is holding down interest rates.

Partly, if we weren’t implementing QE we’d be really **** though Daz.

They’re also moving because they understand that the drop in equities was caused by a relatively short lived pandemic in terms of economic timelines. In the long term, equities go up – buying in at a low is just a natural part of the markets equilibrium.

If they are buying low and investing on a 5-20 year timeline they aren’t going to lose anything.

Any shares I’d want to hold for the next 20 years have already exceeded their pre-Covid highs.

Cherry picking companies that have done well during COVID is a strategy not without risks, depending on whether you think they’re overvalued.

I’m mostly talking about tracker funds and managed equities funds, not people actively managing their own investments like you fin.

Partly, if we weren’t implementing QE we’d be really **** though Daz.

You won’t get any argument from me against QE. It could be used in other ways though for the wider benefit of society.

There’s massive misunderstanding about what QE is and what it does. So please forgive a long thread on one of the most important tools used in modern economics, which if used properly might provide real hope for a better future.

— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) November 22, 2020

I suspect that you’re correct when you say that QE could be implemented in a more effective and equitable manner Daz.

The latest unemployment figures are showing that the period between August and October saw the largest increase in unemployment on record

New labour market data: 370,000 redundancies in Aug-Oct 2020.

A record high, higher than any three-month period during the recession, and a 212% increase on the same period last year. pic.twitter.com/qjtkbQ8Lx7

— Alex Collinson (@Alex__Collinson) December 15, 2020

The massive rise in redundancies has affected all age groups.

But those aged 25-34 particularly affected – a shocking 343% increase in redundancies if you compare Aug-Oct 2020 to the same quarter in 2019. pic.twitter.com/Y9EXn17oFN

— Alex Collinson (@Alex__Collinson) December 15, 2020

Given the amount of those job losses that are in the hospitality sector, I’d imagine that sorry record will be broken again in the period we’re presently in as more businesses go to the wall

Not quite in tune with the doom fappers here, and I’m all to aware of the overall situation. And yes it is a shit show.

But …

For those in small towns, large villages not riddled with large chains. How are your high streets doing? I’m in a town of around 6000 and the occupancy rates for high street shops are at levels not seen in decades with even more on the way. I kind of expected a bump as commuters started spending locally but I’d not really expected quite such a big bump. No idea how long it’ll last.

How are your high streets doing?

A wine store in Calais has just closed, I don’t think that has anything to do with Corona though.

Here in Pau the food stores are doing well but most others are struggling. Not surprising, in a country with already high levels of savings the population put a 90 billion euros into savings last year according to the Banque de France to reach a record level. Our household was average – what are we supposed to spend it on?

In Wales, they’re all **** because they’re shut.

I was just going to ask what part of the country you’re in?

Here in Greater Manchester the businesses have only been out of restrictions for 3 weeks since March. They’re ****ed!!

Loads of the hospitality businesses and independent retailers have admitted defeat already and are boarded up (our mates restaurant included, who put it into receivership a month ago after 15 successful years), the ones left are hanging on by their fingernails, all absolutely haemorrhaging cash.

The poxy government grants don’t even touch the sides. They’re insulting and derisory.

In short: the high streets of the North West of England are being decimated! There won’t be much but supermarkets and Wetherspoons left by the spring

I was just going to ask what part of the country you’re in?

Fife. I’m told it’s a Kingdom.

Here in Greater Manchester

Ahem

For those in small towns, large villages not riddled with large chains.

Admittedly needs a distinction made prior to the chains element.

Contrary to what your seeing as well, we’ve have 4 new cafes. 2 already opened 2 being prepped. How they’ll fare the next few months I don’t know. There has been a cafe closure a couple of miles away but that was always dead even before CV19.

We also have funding to “temporarily” redevelop a derelict site on the high street. Probably as an open air market space. Timeline for that is in excess of 6 months before anything actually happens.

Yes,  doesn’t balance out. I’m just curious as to whether anyone else who lives in a similar* environment is seeing the same.

*by which I mean not a massive **** off city like Manchester

You know that ‘Greater Manchester’ isn’t just Manchester, right? That it’s a ****ing massive area full of large towns, small towns, large villages, small villages and everything in between?

I live in a small town in the hills (with no chains, though I don’t know what difference that makes)

They all have one thing in common though. They’re all well and truly ****ed! Because the businesses have only been allowed to fully open for 3 weeks since March

I’m very happy for you in Fife though. Sounds great.

Could you run us through what lockdown restrictions you’ve been under since March, for comparison purposes

Which Fife town?

You may want to jen up on your geography

Greater Manchester

Burntisland of all places

You’re in Edinburgh aren’t you YGH?

I’m very happy for you in Fife though. Sounds great.

Thats honestly a sentence that’s never been said/typed before. Usually it’s a mix of disdain and sympathy.

You know that ‘Greater Manchester’ isn’t just Manchester, right?

I had it as a conurbation on balance.

Could you run us through what lockdown restrictions you’ve been under since March, for comparison purposes

Im not able to accurately respond to that.

Certainly nowhere near as restrictive as you describe, by a margin of months at least.

You may want to jen up on your geography

That still looks like a conurbation to me and hasn’t changed my perception of the area

Well your perception is wrong.

But we’re not talking about geography, we’re talking about economics.

Greater Manchester (population: 2.5 million) contains a vast variety of hugely different local centres, small and large, rich and poor, built up and rural, all of which have been under the severest lockdown restrictions for all but 3 weeks since March.

Economically they are all absolutely ****ed!

Well, I think this interaction is going just swimmingly so far.

Economically they are all absolutely ****ed!

Hold on. Just today I was reading some presumably northern chap on this very forum saying we just need a positive can do attitude and we’ll all be some sort of left wing utopia.

You’re not suggesting he’s talking bollocks are you?