My seat is safeish SNP

No SNP seat is safe.

Raphael Behr on point again.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/07/rishi-sunak-white-house-summit-brexit-britain-washington-europe-joe-biden

No point in whinging – we voted for less ‘foreign’ in our lives – ignoring the fact that cooperation with other countries is in our best interest most of the time.

Still, blue passports, eh?

As a post-script I heard an American accent on R4 earlier extolling the virtues of Brexit Britain going it alone on data protection and how Europe will struggle to be as flexible. Then I realised he worked for a US big data firm and was practically creaming himself at the prospect of getting into NHS data etc. The vultures are circling and we invited them. 🙄

I heard that interview* with the Palantir guy as well… I was more depressed by the way he was “interviewed” than his obvious agenda. We’re for sale, and he made it clear we’re easier to buy because of Brexit… but no push back at all about why it might be that other countries don’t want their citizens and their data so easily sold to his company.

[ *jump in at about 1:53 here ]

No SNP seat is safe.

I strongly believe that once the campaign starts and the SNP hammer away at the “two cheeks of the same arse ”  and ” labour brexiteers”  that this will severly dent labours recovery in Scotland

Meh. SNP have severe problems they need to address and a general election is not one of them.

Like it or not, we’re still barely on the first step of that road but, that being so, the worst thing we can do is refuse to take it because it is only a step. Equally, it’s perfectly right to keep pushing for the next steps, and necessary, too, if they are to be taken.

^ Chris Grey

If full-bore EU re-entryism is so popular, why did it crater the Lib Dems and why aren’t the Lib Dems popular again?

(Answer: it’s not a popular policy).

+1 And why aren’t the lib dems forcefully pushing that agenda now?

It’s too soon. Whilst the dynamic has shifted against Brexit, this isn’t the same as a case to rejoin.  I don’t think we’ll see that case until there’s a super majority in the polls.

Besides, we need to fix the ship before we can set sail for somewhere new (old) and this is the priority of a majority of voters.  Economy, healthcare, stable and effective  government are the top three for most voters right now, not rehashing Brexit.  Rejoining will only fix one of those and will exacerbate another.

Not the right time.

Answer: it’s not a popular policy

Apart from the fact the polls show it is.  Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility.  thats what the polls show.  Rejoin is the key factor in fixing the UK.

Show the polls, TJ.

My last information from April 2023 said that fewer than 1 in 5 classed Brexit/Rejoin as an election deciding issue.  It may be costing him some votes, but I’d wager it’s not a lot.

I’d actually state that the one of the biggest reasons for rejoining is to stop/delay Indyref2, but that would be at the 2030 election, not 2024/25.

tjagain
Full Member
Answer: it’s not a popular policy

Apart from the fact the polls show it is. Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility. thats what the polls show. Rejoin is the key factor in fixing the UK.

I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.

I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.

Nice to have all the Greatest Hits from the Scottish independence thread in a new setting.

The answer to your question is Sweden.

Which is appropriate given the levels of Stockholm Syndrome in this thread.

TJ is right, opinion continues to move towards rejoin, although as chart shows that has flattened recently and may be on the way back down again – but

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)

– it’s still only just around 50% (some way short of the 66% that some moot that we need for a decision of this magnitude)

and I know that leaves out the don’t knows, but at this point unless you feel strongly for something enough to say so, I tend to put you in the stay as we are bucket.

– i know this is without anyone of any electoral significance actively campaigning for it

which would have both positive and negative consequences, and past evidence suggests that the leave / stay out side would not be exactly scrupulous in that campaign. Until someone hands them a stick to beat us with, we don’t know how effective they’d be at it.

– while general opinion is going that way, I’m yet to be convinced that in the relatively few battleground constituencies, the result would be mirrored.

– other polls like ‘was it a mistake’ or ‘if it was 2016 again what would your vote be’ is irrelevant now. I personally think it was a massive mistake but I don’t now think reversing and going through all that again is the right decision. We need a change of government first and foremost, stabilise (nws all the other arguments about being Tory lite, etc.) and then rebuild closer ties. In that order.

i know this is without anyone of any electoral significance actively campaigning for it

apart from the SNP, Greens, Plaid,  all of whom once the actual campaign gets underway will have to be given media space and will all be attacking labour as brexiteers

Don’t forget the damaging consequences of the campaign process itself as well.

On labour as they get pinned on their brexiteer stance? 😉

You cannot not campaign on something the public want and is good for the country because you are scared of right wing media.  Its fundamentally dishonest as is Starmers postion ” make brexit work” is a lie and he must know it

You’ve made your point…

For example – SNP motion being debated in the HOC today

After 12.45pm: MPs begin a debate on an SNP motion calling for the creation of a Commons cost of living committee to investigate what is driving up prices, how Brexit has contributed, and what the government should do in response.

Brexit has increased inflation and deceased growth.  Unless its reversed then Starmer assuming he gets a majority which I doubt is starting off with one hand behind his back.  He has stated he wants to renegotiate the withdrawal treaty and has been told no by the EU

Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility.  thats what the polls show. 

Labour: up massively in the polls, huge gains at real elections. SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems: in the doldrums. TJ analysis: Starmer’s Brexit position is costing Labour votes.

It may be costing your vote, and it may not be the policy that I’d like to see, but net votes are not being lost, no matter how many times you say it.

something the public want

Half the public – and not the half that’ll sway the election result.

apart from the SNP, Greens, Plaid

I get SNP and Plaid are local parties, but the Greens are national. If rejoin is such a big thing that ‘the public’ want then why didn’t they tear the major parties a new one in the recent local elections?

Sure it made 200 gains – from 500-odd to 700-odd. There were iirc 8500 seats contested. That’s about 2.5% extra, where were ‘the public’?

At the local elections pro rejoin parties – greens and lib dems made far greater gains than the labour party

Polls clearly show the labour vote is soft and is mainly an anti tory vote not a pro labour one and that they are very vulnerable on brexit.  Labour have not increased their vote so much as the tory vote collapsed

No seats were contested in Scotland ( can’t remember if it was in  wales)

Labour are not on course for a majority – thats very much in the balance and once the GE campaign is underway then the pro rejoin parties will get fairer airtime

If labour would ditch the enthusiastic brexiteer stance and the gaslighting then IMO they would lose a few votes, gain a lot more and firm up their vote significantly – and the local election results and polling all show this

Starmer has said he wants and needs to win seats in Scotland – his brexiteer stance is not going to allow him to do this.

For the love of God please stop.

TJ is NEVER changing his mind or accepting anyone else’s points. You might as well argue with a wall.

Same could be said of you molgrips – you willnot engage just shout down

why do you think the greens made such huge and unprecedented gains in the locals?

Why is the labour vote so soft?

Two questions for you

Apart from the fact the polls show it is.

Sure, but that doesn’t mean that those people would vote for parties that promote it, or would specifically vote Labour to enact it. A poll saying Brexit is unpopular is one thing, but I can completely get why political parties do not want a do-over of the last 6/7 years in reverse.

For the love of God please stop.

Other threads are available.

It’s not just TJ, by the way.  There are plenty on this thread who will never change their minds or accept anyone else’s points.

You just happen to disagree with TJ so you notice when he’s being disagreeable.

why do you think the greens made such huge and unprecedented gains in the locals?

going from 500-700 odd. Out of 8500. Less than 2.5%.

Your definition of huge needs work.

Sure, but that doesn’t mean that those people would vote for parties that promote it,

They did in the locals.  The % gain for greens and lib dems was much bigger than for labour.  I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees

I will ague my corner, give my reasoning and will engage with those who disagree.

Jonv – % gains in votes and seats.  Its undeniable the greens made huge and unprecedented gains – something very difficult to do as a 4th largest party

Did you read the Chris Grey article?

It is deniable. I’m denying it.

Sure – they increased their vote substantially compared to their prior vote, but if I have 50p in my pocket and add another 20p, while I’m undeniably “40% richer than I was” I’ve still only got 70p

To answer other points – it was an ENG and NI local election year. So no SCO or W seats, but in some ways that make analysis easier, no decision between one of the national parties vs Green. If the public so want Rejoin, why did their ACTUAL seats won only increase by around 2-2.5%

I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees

I think you’d be on dodgy ground if you tried to link local elections with national policies. People have and do vote for different candidates in local elections for all sorts of (often very) local issues.. I don’t disagree the polls show that Brexit is becoming more and more unpopular, that’s pretty much undeniable, what’s debateable is whether national parties that have a chance of forming the next government campaigning on it would be successful. Labour have held a significant lead in the polls since last November all the while saying that they’re not going to re-open the Brexit debate, and their numbers aren’t decreasing as the population’s unhappiness with Brexit is getting louder.

Fair point nickc

Jonv – many ways to look at the numbers but tories lost 1000ish seats, labour only gained half of them

Labour gained 20% extra seats from where they were, greens gained 50% extra seats

I cannot find vote %

to me this and the polling all show that labours brexiteer stance is costing them votes so that they look like possibly hung parliament / possible small majority.  I think with a pro EU stance they would be making more gains and their vote would not be so soft.

I am also intensely frustrated by Starmers gaslighting on brexit and that given how public opinion is moving that if he supported rejoin he would isolate the tories further and make more gains.  He is also throwing away a huge opportunity in Scotland given the state of the SNP but his brexiteer stance is going to give the SNP an easy get out of jail free card because make no mistake they will play on this

I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.

Quite frankly for 99% of us, who GAS what currency we use, as long as it’s the one we’re ‘paid in’ that’s really all that matters.

The % gain for greens and lib dems was much bigger than for labour. I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees

You can’t think of any other reasons for votes to shift besides Brexit?

I will ague my corner, give my reasoning and will engage with those who disagree.

You expect us to accept your analysis but you won’t accept anyone else’s, you mean.

NO Molgrips – I will argue my corner and listen to the counter arguments – see my response to nickc above

I don’t expect you to accept my analysis but a respectful debate would be nice

It would yes. I am just ribbing you because you always say the same things over and over again 🙂

I’ll stop now.

Personally I think Labour’s recent announcement about scrapping universal childcare will do them more harm than their stance on Brexit

Jonv – many ways to look at the numbers but tories lost 1000ish seats, labour only gained half of them

Only half? Slackers, the lot of them 😂

Or look at it as the pro rejoin parties made as many gains in seats as labour did from a much lower base and a much larger % increase
lies damn lies and statistics