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That said, allowing potentially thousands of people to travel again during China’s biggest wave does seem a potential risk, as shown the first time round.
The chinese government will only ever do what’s in their collectiveXi’s self interest; any notion of them being responsible or global good citizens is for the birds.
Very much this. There's also the perceived benefit for them of (again) inflicting damage on other countries; pain is easier to take when others are suffering (economically etc.) too and you're not falling behind - because everyone is falling back.
But yeah. Not my best work.
I think it still reads better than my first post on this thread, and I've posted some insensitive nonsense on here over the years.
We have confirmed no plans for testing arrivals from China. Once is a mistake, twice looks like carelessness. Vaccination will reduce the effects if this proves to be a mistake - it may not be - but jeez, we learn nothing. Next couple of weeks are the traditional worst weeks for respiratory illness/deaths in hospital anyway.
If it was 1 plane arriving as a one-off, then yeah, whatever, but how many planes arrive to the UK / one’s country of residence from China every day?
Apparently there are six planes due within the next week. The news is reporting that there are no plans to test or scrutinise the passengers. But, we are continuing to test for Variants of Concern from tests that are done, but that rather requires people to actually perform a test.
Feels like trouble ahead.
Only the United States, Italy, Japan, Taiwan, and India, have introduced covid testing for arrivals from China, so the UK is far from unique in that respect.
And I suspect that Taiwan probably has some political motivations behind its decision.
The dither and delay on the China situation is outright foolish, when it appears that it's an unknown variant in Europe, as far as severity goes.
Especially when there's still no sign of free seasonal boosters for "non-vulnerable" under 50s in the UK.
At 49, I'd happily consider paying for a seasonal booster, given how my second known infection three months ago with a gap of ~2.5 years has left me floored. The ~9 month gap between last winter's booster and known second infection, especially with Omicron that wasn't around before '22, probably didn't help.
What the hell is our government playing at? I'd love to know how many under 50 non-vulnerable MPs have quietly had a seasonal booster.
It's more governmental incompetence.
But yeah. Not my best work.
There were plenty of people still espousing this view on the thread 18 months later, so I think you're off the hook for that one.
In the absence of outright immigration bans I doubt that testing of arrivals will prevent spread, beyond maybe delaying it initially - R will be R, and all that'll matter is initial numbers followed by any measures that nations impose (and I suspect there is no way that our current govt has the stomach for any meaningful controls)
Testing of arrivals in countries like USA & Italy should allow identification of any new variants fairly quickly and then we'll see
Sounds like some of you have, or know someone with the variant that spread out of South China (itchy/painful eyes and sockets). With three low efficacy vaccines, none within the last six months, I'm 12 days in and with a bag of differing symptoms every few days. Even now there are still dizziness issues when moving around.
I personally know three people who have't been infected. That's how widespread it is. I had a colleague die today. There are no tests available locally. There is no medicine available locally. The second wave is supposedly on its way, due in several days. I read a local news article about someone who caught covid twice at the same time. Not sure which variants, but as if a 38c temperature is annoying enough, this woman hit 40c, reporting a pounding headache and inability to sleep. That's when having no drugs in the first aid kit sucks.
Hopefully no VOCs come out of this incident.
I had it for the 1st time at the beginning of the month, fine when I got up in the morning but by dinner time I was shaking like shitting dog and sweating buckets, that lasted a day then just feeling mouldy for the next 12 days. It took over a week before I could walk the young one to school with out feeling breathless for over an hour after.
Just got back from the first post covid ride all 2.8 miles of it and fee like i have just done a stage of the TDF. I guess the single speed was not the best choice of bike.
Tested positive on Saturday after a day or two of moderate cold symptoms. Coughed a bit that night. Fine since. Nice quiet, stress free Xmas by myself, drinking and eating the stuff that I'd intended taking over to see my sister and dad. Might do it again next year!
The Guardian: UK ministers under pressure to screen China arrivals for Covid.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/29/uk-ministers-under-pressure-to-screen-china-arrivals-for-covid
I have no opinion on the matter but I found this comment interesting:
Other government scientific advisers believe there would be little use in screening arrivals from China, given how high infection rates are already in the UK. Speaking in a personal capacity, Mark Woolhouse, another epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, said: “I doubt very much these new travel policies will have a material impact on Covid trajectories in the countries implementing them.
“The UK did the same to South Africa a little over a year ago when Omicron was first reported. That had no detectable impact at all. Omicron was already here.”
Other government scientific advisers believe there would be little use in screening arrivals from China...snip
I listened to an Italian expert on the TV news using the same argument in respect of Italian measures. He made the point that not everyone arrives directly...
It's Chinese NY on the 22nd so expect plenty of travel to and fro
Is a relatively unvaccinated population less likely to produce a breakout strain than better vaccinated countries?
Omicron was already here
It's not Omicron we are worried about though is it, it's the next variant. They can't screen for that if they aren't testing on arrival, so in the meantime Chinese arrivals that are positive for Covid will - likely within 2 hrs of landing at Heathrow - have mixed at one of the worlds busiest airport hubs, entered London's tubes & populated areas, people will travel across the internal rail networks.... etc.
The UK needs to close its borders to China while thier cases are soring. But of course, the UK government is too weak (stupid) to do that.
I can see the argument that screening arrivals won't do much to reduce current infection rates. I'm assuming the experts who say that are better qualified than me, and I'm not hearing much noise from experts saying we should be testing.
I'm still willing to listen to experts, must be my age
Yeah I tend to put my trust in those with expertise, and no axe to grind.
What I find worrying though is whether the current PM is:
I'm pretty sure the negative side effects of lockdowns were thoroughly discussed by the cabinet and experts on all sides.
I'm gonna take a wild guess thst he's trying to distance himself to appease the headbanger wing of his party.
The current variants in China spread very fast, and very easily. You'd have to create sealed umbilical channels off planes into heretical quarantine centres to ensure it didn't get off the planes and into the country. You'd have to spray down all baggage and incoming containers. And it'll still get through due to human error.
When we're talking 90% of occupants of cities in China is sick, even with the housing, eating out culture, and high speed rail links, discussions of closing borders, locking up traveller's from specific countries. Is simply going to become good for political infighting. Not practical actions.
In other news we're all testing today chez Sandwich. The Boy has caught it again (4th time for him) from a nursing home in Suffolk whilst working. I wasn't planning on going out for New Year.
Spain now testing Chinese arrivals.
Testing and quarantining isn't going to stop all Chinese variants entering the UK, but it will slow the spread and give our dither and delay overlords a better chance of reacting to any increased severity.
From the above ^^ link :
But Professor Andrew Pollard, the chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, said the imposition of travel restrictions was unlikely to prove effective in stopping variants reaching the country.
"Trying to ban a virus by adjusting what we do with travel has already been shown not to work very well. We have seen that with the bans on travel from various countries during the pandemic," he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
Just banning arrivals for eight weeks while it burns itself out in China would do the job. UK government exactly as incompetent as it was in early 2020.
Which country has banned arrivals for eight weeks?
Just banning arrivals for eight weeks while it burns itself out in China would do the job.
China has/had been in a state of strict rolling lockdowns and total border control for a couple of years now. Why do you think eight weeks would make a difference?
‘Banning’ travel and testing travellers, giving the opportunity to look for the entry of new variants, are a world apart. Jumping straight to a ban is probably unnecessary now we have vaccinations (which we’re probably not making the most of, but, hey, that’s a whole other discussion). But, whatever, any measures need to be taken while this flares up in China, not afterwards. Not taking short term interventions early can result in long term and expensive problems… you’d have thought that would have been learnt by now. It feels like a “if you don’t look, you won’t find” approach to new variants… but knowledge is strength, not weakness… we should be trying to get ahead of what is likely to come from this huge wave in China… not waiting to respond to it once it’s taken hold worldwide.
We don't really have a functioning government anymore so I'm really, really hoping that luck is on our side in dealing with any new covid nastiness.
It shouldn't be down to luck but look at the government we have.😐
China has/had been in a state of strict rolling lockdowns and total border control for a couple of years now.
Isn’t it obvious? China is no longer in a strict lockdown so Covid is surging.
Wait until the wave is over so that flights out of there aren’t importing massive numbers of infected and/or unvaccinated tourists who will infect everyone around them and take up hospital beds when it turns out that snorting ground-up rhinoceros penis is not an effective vaccine.
Huge numbers of elderly Chinese are unvaccinated and the rest are with a vaccine of limited efficacy.
Given the prevalence of covid on incoming flights, some monitoring would be prudent. China has a BA.5 variant and subvariant explosion, and I don’t think we’ll see significant new variants. Their vaccination history will push the virus in broadly the same direction as our own has. They do at least have access to paxlovid, but this seems income and status dependent. They’ve also started to upload data to GISAID. That’s a significant advance. I imagine every test from incoming tourists would be genotyped (currently about 25% of all tests are typed in the UK).
As for scientists. They advise. Ministers decide(d). In fact they were there to advise on the potential for decisions the ministers were considering in advance of implementation.
uturn
Wise.
Today is the day I decided was compliant with guidance for testing (symptoms started Sunday, but only tested 1st thing Tuesday after a shit night and after trying to throw up bile...) in the hope that as it seems to have been fairly mild for me (at least so far) and manageable by the power of lemsip and the occasional locket in the hope I’d be able to do a bit of re-stock on supplies my test strip turned red (bold!) before it hit the control strip (<90s).
Guess I’m not fit to re-enter human society for another 5 days then🙃
I don't like the phrase U-turn. It has such negative connotations as if they are to be avoided at all costs. What I want is that folk can realise an error, and rather than dogmatically defend and stick on that path, admit they were wrong or that new information has come to light to cause a change in direction.
That's not weak, admitting mistakes is strong. But if press and public vilify whenever someone does change their mind then that leads to what we now have in most cases.
Brexit should have been reversed once it became clear what implications were. I sense no-one with a log burner can admit they aren't comfortable with their choice. And many more......no-one is immune to it, but we should all be better at it.
(that's not the same as saying flip flop decision making is right either, before someone says)
I'm so glad the UK have done a deal with Covid to not let any positives in from China until 5th Jan... There's not much point to a delayed testing policy!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64130655
I’m so glad the UK have done a deal with Covid to not let any positives in from China until 5th Jan… There’s not much point to a delayed testing policy!
Pragmatically, trying to get a testing programme up and running over an extended public holiday period was never going to be easy.
I agree with jonv that U turn is the wrong phrase if new information makes the original position no longer correct, as opposed to blowing in the breeze of public opinion. It's just so hard to tell with this government and this virus.
I don’t like the phrase U-turn. It has such negative connotations....
Well that is obviously why it is used.
It is clearly not a U-turn, it is a change of policy. According to the headlines it went like this - the government say they have no plans to introduce testing for arrivals from China, the government say they are reviewing the situation concerning testing for arrivals from China, and finally, the government announce that arrivals from China will now all need to test negative.
I have no idea how they came to that decision, whether it was based on clear expert scientific advice or whether as a government which will almost certainly see their sorry arse spanked in 18 months time they panicked and thought "we better be seen to be doing something".
I obviously very much hope it was the former but I sadly have no confidence in the government not to put political expediency before everything else.
I don’t like the phrase U-turn. It has such negative connotations as if they are to be avoided at all costs. What I want is that folk can realise an error, and rather than dogmatically defend and stick on that path, admit they were wrong or that new information has come to light to cause a change in direction.
That’s not weak, admitting mistakes is strong. But if press and public vilify whenever someone does change their mind then that leads to what we now have in most cases.
Absolutely spot on.
Not seen any “vilifying”… it’s the right move. Uturns can we welcomed. Ruling things out that are likely to happen has become a political default though. Consideration has become a dirty word.
Not in this case, but a u-turn in politics in general is almost always leapt on by opposition / opposition press
Interestingly, the public is split on it, but slightly in favour compared to against
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/when-the-government-does-a-u-turn
Don’t confusing dropping policies that are clearly daft from the outset for changes of direction led by new events and knowledge. Politicians are often criticised for uturns after they have been out defending a daft policy and belittling those pointing out how daft it is… only to later drop it… and make all those who they have sent out to defend it knowing that it was daft look like fools. If they genuinely change policy to fit a changing world, that is often welcomed.
Don’t confusing dropping policies that are clearly daft from the outset
Oh, for sure. More than a few cases of those recently!! The issue is that they all seem to be categorised as u-turns; u-turns are seen as weak / a reason to hammer the opponent; ergo even sensible changes are sometimes avoided for fear they become a stick to be beaten with.
Worrying study published in Nature regarding the immune system damage that comes with covid infection, probably explains why my mates gf is dealing with so many patients in her ward with blood clotting/sepsis/haematology issues
Finally caught me too - symptoms appeared toward the end of Christmas Day...
... so just in time to infect FiL, MiL and SiL.
Kin ell - all in the story up to date with boosters 'n' such, so no horror stories as of yet.
It was a bit shit, dreadful headache, but i've had a lot worse. I rolled up my sleeve for the Flu jab earlier this year for the first time, because i've had it and it was awful.
I don't know whether this will work, but @TiRed s favourite charlatan, Mike Yeadon is putting himself front and forward -
https://twitter.com/i/status/1609101323798028290
- would love to hear a response.
I'm reliably informed that one of the 17,000 scientists is one Dr. Sciency McScienceface, who hails from Syria.