Forum menu
officially just over 5,200 have died
Key word is 'officially'.
Something like 10m people die every year in China. To suggest that Covid was responsible for only 5,200 of them seems...improbable, whatever the level of lockdown that has been imposed.
Well that would require a widespread conspiracy on the part of the Chinese authorities to suppress the true figures of covid-related deaths.
Obviously a possibility as indeed it is in other countries, but I can't for the life of me figure out of what possible benefit it would provide China.
Say the figure is 10 or 20 times more than the official figure, what does China gain by playing down the problem?
As it is the authorities are facing widespread and growing opposition to its zero covid policy, playing down the dangers of Covid is hardly likely to help.
I assume the figures quoted by the BBC are accepted by the World Health Organisation.
Obviously a possibility as indeed it is in other countries, but I can’t for the life of me figure out of what possible benefit it would provide China.
Then you arent looking very hard.
Its integral to the governments approach to show how much better they handle it as opposed to the decadent west and hence why their political philosophy is better.
There are lots of games you can play with the statistics eg if you only count someone who dies in hospital having tested currently positive for covid vs having had it in say the last month (which may have done enough damage to cause death even if the patient was no longer testing positive).
No one sane would trust the Chinese official statistics.
No one sane would trust the Chinese official statistics.
So people working for the BBC and United Nations World Health Organisation aren't sane?
That's the sort of comment that I would expect from a Daily Mail column writer.
Even if there was a huge orchestrated, and pointless, conspiracy by the Chinese government to suppress the true figure and it was a hundred times greater than the official figure that equates to 300 Covid deaths in every million in China, compared with 3,000 per million in the US and 2,400 per million in the UK.
Whatever the figure no sane person believes that Covid has affected China as badly as it has other Western countries. And falsely playing down the problem when there is apparently growing opposition to its zero covid policy makes no sense. The Chinese government is perfectly stable, it doesn't need to prove that it has dealt with covid better than the West, there are no elections coming up.
Then you arent looking very hard.
Some people try too hard.
In fairness Ernie, dissonance is spot on here imo.
The local authorities are under huge pressure to prove they are on top of covid in China for all the reasons he states. Manipulating the figures goes beyond conspiracy really, it's more official policy.
Additionally China's domestically designed vaccines are thought to be less effective than some western ones. So apart from the whole ideologically driven zero covid policy there is thought to be real concern within China that their health system could still be overwhelmed if all covid controls were abandoned.
China manipulated covid infections and deaths from the very start and I see no reason or evidence that anything had changed.
China manipulated covid infections and deaths from the very start
I am not disputing that, I am not in a position to do so. I have no idea how precise Chinese, US, UK, or anyone else's figures are.
But I do know for sure that the Trump's administrations position was that the Chinese were lying and manipulating covid figures. I also know that organisations such as the BBC and the UN WHO don't reject Chinese figures as so unreliable as to render them worthless, without questioning their sanity.
I also have every reason to believe that the zero covid policy will have had a massive effect on covid related deaths in China, because China is not the only country to have followed that policy, other countries in that region also follow zero covid. Basically the countries previously most affected by SARS, they had both the experience and the protocols on place.
South Korea has only had a tiny fraction of the Covid deaths that the US and the UK has had. Lockdowns save lives. However only China has rigorously maintained it - my question was why?
I don't know the chinese vaccine efficacy rate but I doubt that they don't provide significant protection. I am aware that politics and nationalism plays a part in these matters. As did in the case of AstraZeneca, which I was very happy to receive btw.
The key to China data is to plot them on a semi-log plot and compare with other nations. There is plenty of temporal correlation (which ignores absolute values), and the omicron wave is self-evident. I don't give credence to absolute numbers, nor current UK cases of course.
The efficacy of the Chinese vaccines has not been great compared to the mRNA offerings from the West.
So people working for the BBC and United Nations World Health Organisation aren’t sane?
I didnt say that. That they state the official statistics doesnt mean they actually believe them.
But I do know for sure that the Trump’s administrations position was that the Chinese were lying and manipulating covid figures
You are falling for the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
The Chinese government has a long history of producing inaccurate statistics in order to push political objectives.
In reality anything either Trump or the Chinese government produces should be treated with severe suspicion.
South Korea has only had a tiny fraction of the Covid deaths that the US and the UK has had.
And yet their death rate is far higher than China despite having better medical facilities available especially intensive care.
However only China has rigorously maintained it – my question was why?
You know your confidence in their vaccines? It aint shared by their officials even without the low uptake amongst the most vulnerable.
Sir Terry has something for the deniers:
They both savoured the strange warm glow of being much more ignorant than ordinary people, who were only ignorant of ordinary things.
(Discworld scientists at work, Equal Rites)
TBF he has something for most occasions.
Anyhoo, Ti is this a topical, oral, suppository or vaccine application for peak effectiveness?
You are falling for the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Not at all. I am just recognising that denial, suspicion, deflection, conspiracy theories, and politics in general, provides an extremely important backstory to the whole global pandemic. And that anti-chinese racism, and baseless propaganda, was at the very heart of the United States government's response from the very start.
When trying to decide the likely truth in any given situation which requires a judgement call I always like to consider possible motives.
The Trump administration's motives were clear - primarily an inability to accept their own appalling failings as well as an opportunity for anti-chinese rhetoric.
The Chinese motives are a little less clear to me. As I pointed out earlier even if covid related deaths were a hundred times greater than the official figure it would still represent a massive improvement on the figures from the US or the UK, so why not use the correct figure?
But none of that relates to my original question which is a question that many people are asking, including apparently in China - why is China maintaining zero covid policy when it is costing them huge amounts and other countries such as South Korea have moved on from that policy?
I am struggling to believe that it is all down to efficacy of Chinese vaccines - surely it must be more than that?
You know your confidence in their vaccines?
What confidence in their vaccine? My very first comment on the issue was, quote : "I don’t know the chinese vaccine efficacy rate". I am perfectly happy to accept that it might not be as high as others. I simply said that I doubt that it doesn't provide any significant protection at all. Primarily because I haven't seen that claimed anywhere. Is that what is being claimed?
Some of the problem in China will be due to the compact that exists between party and people. The people sacrifice freedom for protection by the party. If that is shown to be broken there are not enough soldiers in the PLA to hold back the people. (I accept that this is a gross simplification).
Then we have the issue of Face. Since the Orange Shit-Gibbon (©Binners) started on the Chinese Virus the party have to protect their international reputation.
Taken together these are sufficient to cause gross under-reporting. Johnson was busted by Chris Giles analysing the excess deaths data that showed we had a death total in excess of 200 000.
It wasn’t just Chris Giles ;-). SAGE were advising on our risible excess mortality long before. We were FORTY standard deviations above historic mean. The worst in Europe. All countries report mortality but it sometimes takes a while for accurate data. The delay in the UK is only two weeks.
For some good news. Japan has approved a new antiviral from Shionogi. This works the same as Pfizer’s Paxlovid without need for the coadministered ritonavir. Unfortunately it still has the same drug interaction issues. It’s a good step in the right direction.
https://www.shionogi.com/global/en/news/2022/11/e20221122.html
When trying to decide the likely truth in any given situation which requires a judgement call I always like to consider possible motives.
Which is odd since you are completely failing to do so and going off on wild tangents.
With regards to Trump blaming China. Whilst, as with everything he did, it was mostly wild flailing with massive inaccuracies there was a kernel of truth to it.
China covered up the epidemic originally and, for example, lied about human to human transmission.
They continued to push misinformation just as much as Trump did.
They are heavily invested into the communist party is the best option approach which underlies everything they do including the ability to back away from the fact they were one of the few countries to go for zero covid.
What confidence in their vaccine?
This claim of yours " doubt that they don’t provide significant protection."
If you cant even manage a coherent argument then I will leave you to it.
This claim of yours ” doubt that they don’t provide significant protection.”
If you cant even manage a coherent argument then I will leave you to it.
Apologies if my "argument" isn't coherent enough for you. Although whatever I say you are likely to pick a hole in it - you usually do dissonance.
I don't have an opinion on the efficacy of the Chinese vaccine, why would I?
I assume however that it does provide some protection as I hadn't heard suggested otherwise. I have no idea if that is anymore coherent but let's leave it there.
surely enough now,
I had to wear a mask in two places today, at the doctors and the pharmacy. Maybe it was only a psychological protection but I was very happy that the patient with the dreadful hacky cough was wearing a mask, Covid or something else.
no trying to descalate someone with psychosis then? where facial expressions are somewhat key at times
China covered up the epidemic originally and, for example, lied about human to human transmission.
They continued to push misinformation just as much as Trump did.
They didn't lie they told us what they knew and that evolved very quickly:
21 January — Chinese health workers infected
Infections have been confirmed in 15 health-care workers in Wuhan; scientists say this suggests that the virus is more adept at human-to-human transmission than was first thought. Previously, Chinese authorities and the WHO had said that there had been some limited cases of human-to-human transmission between family members, but that animals seemed to be the most likely source of the virus.
In response to the worsening outbreak, the World Health Organization has called a meeting on 22 January to decide whether to declare a public-health emergency.
IMO the problems weren't with how China reported what they were experiencing, it was the west's response to it which amounted to inciting everyone to get on a plane home and then spread the virus to all and sundry with no quarantine. We had the information and used it badly.
I had a hospital appointment last week with a new consultant. Had to wear a mask on entering the hospital, but then went to see the consultant, he had no mask on, and he went to shake my hand, shock horror!
I said I wasn't sure if we were supposed to as I was a bit taken back with the hand shake, and I'm having to wear this mask? Take it off if you want, you don't need to wear it for me, he said. I got the bus here with loads of people and no masks on and no one will be wearing them when I'm at the rugby tomorrow. He went on to have a mini-rant about how its all a bit much now and we got to move on.
I was surprised, but it made my consultation with him much much easier with no masks, and he was having to manipulate my wrists and arms anyway.
he went to shake my hand
My understanding is that when covid19 first emerged and nothing was known about it it was assumed likely that it could be easily spread through physical contact, and fomite transmission, as this is the case with many respiratory tract viruses. Hence the advice of the importance of hand washing.
However now that so much more is known about covid it generally accepted, I believe, that despite other theoretical possibilities it is overwhelmingly transmitted through short-range aerosol/airborne suspended particles.
A face mask would appear to have obvious advantages but avoiding handshaking apparently much less so.
Furthermore I could be wrong but the idea of low level exposure to Covid (to constantly prime my immune response) actually appeals to me.
Furthermore I could be wrong but the idea of low level exposure to Covid (to constantly prime my immune response) actually appeals to me.
It’d be great if that was true but “tired” debunked that theory a few pages previous.
Did he? Wasn't aware. It's been almost a year since I caught covid (which was 6 weeks after my booster so extremely mild) I struggle to believe that I haven't been exposed to it again since then countless times, not least because almost no one bothers with social distancing and face coverings anymore.
Does that undoubted exposure really provide no immunity at all?
Pretty much every hospital has staff and visitors wearing masks in a clinical environment. It’s hardly a ball ache.
Pretty much every hospital has staff and visitors wearing masks in a clinical environment. It’s hardly a ball ache.
Except this guy? And he met me in the waiting room, it wasn't just in his office where he had no mask and handshaking.
I was surprised, but personally not bothered.
I’ve been an outpatient in two different hospitals recently for a minor op and follow ups… all spaces were mask wearing in both.
Recently went for Botox in my hamstrings/quads and calve muscles (spms) in Dumfries hospital, the Consultant, Occupational Therapist and a Student were not masked and were expecting to see me in a very small room with no windows for airflow, I told them I’m not coming in till they masked up (I was wearing FP2), the consultant got a bit snotty but eventually put a blue surgical mask on.
Mine was in Dundee Somafunk. Maybe some Scottish laxity in parts?
My wife is an OT. They're no longer required to mask up etc when going into homes unless the client would like it. She has said that some clients were getting snotty with her when she was wanting to wear a mask.
Are they not required to wear a mask when treating the immunocompromised? I’d expect that as a matter of precaution because the masks are really to prevent infection of others rather than protect the wearer from infection. If both patient and healthcare worker are wearing masks, there will be more protection from inadvertent transmission.
And the priming by regular mini-infections isn’t happening. You aren’t being infected that often. Nor were you from other coronaviruses. About once every two years is typical. And this corresponds to loss of humoral (antibody) protection.
You aren’t being infected that often. Nor were you from other coronaviruses. About once every two years is typical.
Really? I had assumed that you were constantly coming in contact with it in the community. So if exposure is typically about once every two years then presumably it significantly reduces the necessity for face coverings?
being exposed isn't the same as getting infected. We have brilliant physical defence mechanisms, such as hairs and mucus that trap and carry infections (and particles, and...) away before they can get into cells.
I wonder if this goes some way to explaining why some people seem resistant to anything whereas others catch everything that's going.
Pretty much every hospital has staff and visitors wearing masks in a clinical environment. It’s hardly a ball ache.
i (the boy) had an appointment in Sheffield Childrens Hospital a couple of weeks ago, no masks on any staff, no masks on any visitors, both in clinical outpatients and x-ray, and there seemed to be some poorly kids being wheeled about, as x-ray is the other side of the hospital from the outpatient department we were in, didn't see a single mask
Conversely We went to ARI for a scan a couple of weeks
Every person I saw was masked up from the front door to the back.
Tired : Are they not required to wear a mask when treating the immunocompromised? I’d expect that as a matter of precaution because the masks are really to prevent infection of others rather than protect the wearer from infection. If both patient and healthcare worker are wearing masks, there will be more protection from inadvertent transmission.
My thoughts as well, those 3 in the room will come into close physical contact with more disparate individuals in one day than I have in the past few months and as such I had made it very clear I do not wish to suffer the consequences of getting covid, however slight it may or may not be as even a very slight bladder infection/raised temperature from using catheters lays me up for weeks and they are getting harder to recover from.
I see my mother each day, and she keeps to herself and 3 others out on walks/hikes and I see a mate once a week who tests herself before visiting - living in a very rural/quiet area of Galloway has its upsides.
Found this on Twitter
https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1595787414542450688?s=61&t=g8d_Fb4F7HYpoKqPjyvw0g
i (the boy) had an appointment in Sheffield Childrens Hospital a couple of weeks ago, no masks on any staff, no masks on any visitors, both in clinical outpatients and x-ray, and there seemed to be some poorly kids being wheeled about, as x-ray is the other side of the hospital from the outpatient department we were in, didn’t see a single mask
Excellent. You did see that I didn’t say all, right?
Just had my flu and Covid vaccinations. Cominarty Bivalent apparently.
Initial reaction was a weird taste (I've noticed this before) and my jaw seems a bit stiff. Not sure I'll be doing my planned 10k run later.
That's grim news 🙁
Edit: Especially if combined with the inevitable pandemic fatigue. Plus all those like myself who got a super mild form of omicron and might feel invincible.
Every person I saw was masked up from the front door to the back.
@trail_rat for some reason this paints a picture of surgical gowns and too many masks for one individual.
The study is yet to be peer reviewed and is based solely on laboratory work on samples from one individual.
^ from the Japan times article. it’s just scaremongering, BA/BQ/XBB variants are far more easy to catch yet in an environment where 95% of the population has had covid at least once and a high percentage of the population have had a full course of vaccination plus 2 boosters (1 of them bivalent) it hasn’t caused a ‘disaster fappers’ wet dream, cases have risen rapidly and seen an equally rapid fall without a significant increase in ICU admissions and death. This has happened in most European countries, it’s places like china where old people would rather trust ground up roots/herbs than vaccines that will see problems. The U.S seniors have not embraced boosters in the way europe has so they might see a significant increase in deaths this winter.
here in the U.K flu has overtaken covid for hospital admissions.
here in the U.K flu has overtaken covid for hospital admissions.
Isn't the UK covid peak expected in January?
week 1-2 January are always peaks for respiratory winter infections due to travel/mixing/sitting in crowded rooms drinking and eating sugar laden carbs.
who knows when the next variant driven peak is but covid peaks have come at various times not when they are expected to.
@ernielynch - i wouldn't get too worked up about that article. They keyword is 'maybe'. Remember these online news outlets need clicks and constant traffic so a massaging of facts for a story has become the norm unfortunately.
Yeah I fully accept that at this stage it is merely speculation, the article makes that quite clear.
It still doesn't sound like particularly great news the suggestion of the likelihood of the next covid variant being more virulent than omicron. I also appreciate that it is based on not particularly extensive work, but it does I believe come from the lab that originally identified omicron, so presumably a fairly reputable source?
I am not personally worried as I am fully jabbed and whilst omicron affected every member of my immediate family all, without exception, had symptoms no worse than a cold, so there is quite possibility a genetic resistance to Covid.
I do however feel it is a worry if covid mutates into a more serious variant, especially as I say people are far less likely to it as seriously as they did a couple of years ago.
The assumption now is that large scale vaccination combined with natural immunity further covid waves will put less stress on the NHS and cause less deaths, it would be a shame if covid didn't strictly follow the script!
It was some interesting info… thanks for the link Ernie.
Took my mum to the Nightingale unit in Derby today for some results.
We were the only people with masks - staff or patients.
Genuinely made me feel like I was the weird one.
You were the weird one. It's over and has been for a long time.
You were the weird one.
Been said before
It’s over and has been for a long time.
Doesn't feel that way for some who are still catching it