No, that’s not the plan. Catch up. Stop spreading that misunderstanding.
While people are still thinking “we’ll all get it, and then we’ll have herd immunity, so why change my life to stop myself spreading it” we’re on course for a very poor outcome. We very well may be looking at a virus that requires intervention to be stopped… a combination of existing antiviral drugs yet to be identified as useful, new vaccines, and stopping spread by stopping contact.
There’s been a bit of fake news over ibuprofen and CV, but it seems from the BMJ there might be something in it,
So it isn't fake news then?
Stevextc. I've nothing to say but best wishes to your lad. I hope he's home before too long. Must be horrific for you.
Whatever - just trying to help.
As if things are not bad enough, the whole of central govt is about to grind to a halt…
Daz - In between typing your increasingly hysterical missives, I'm picturing you doing this
😀
Perfect.
@dazh: kids are at pretty much zero risk. The grandparents who’d be looking after many of them, even if aged under 70, are higher risk of getting seriously ill. Kids with coughs go home, family isolates, full lockdown happens more slowly.
Only that's not happening. Kids at my wife's school are still being sent in coughing and spluttering all over the place. The parents are saying it's just a minor cold and to crack on. Her school is being seen as child care as clearly the guidelines don't apply to some parents.
Even once the kids get sent home, they are still in school for a couple of hours 'till picked up. That spreading on door handles, their registration classes etc
Daz – In between typing your increasingly hysterical missives, I’m picturing you doing this
🤣👍
Steve XTC - one of my work colleagues is also immune compromised. We’ve just been txting and it seems that virus progression is much less in immunocompromised groups.
So I popped into the local supermarket today and got nasty wake up call. No bog roll at all, only a few rolls of kitchen roll left. Pasta and Rice decimated and the freezer aisles were looking 1/4 full. No paracetamol and only a few ibuprofen. FFS it's not the end if the world.
What is wrong with people? I got really angry watching old people wandering up and down the aisles looking for things that were gone. These people cannot either carry and/or afford to stock up.🤬
Spoke to the vet yesterday and he said they aren't letting people stock up on animal meds to stop shortages occurring.
RaNT over.
Yeah so tell that to my boy, here is is in St. Thomas’ P-ICU intubated for 10 days with novovirus.
He stopped breathing and had resuss countless times in those 10 days
Whilst this must have been unimaginably awful, it is a different virus.
This virus is apparently unusual in that it doesn't have much effect on the young, unlike most others including novo, where they are typically one of the highest at risk categories.
Macron said the opposite.
They’re a bit further down the path than we are. No doubt there will come a time when the balance changes and the UK closes schools too. (An obvious time would be around the Easter Holiday.)
What is the clinical relevance of "Easter"?
France shut schools, Poland (not ahead) also did and I'm sure many other places as well.
Everyone else (except the US) seems to be following the WHO guidance...
Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.
Of course there is an alternative it is the one the WHO are advising.
There are plenty of communicable diseases to which there is no vaccine (or safe/effective one) yet they are managed. There is also a distinct possibility of a vaccine at some point.
It’s just a case of trying to limit new cases to a level where we all get infected without overwhelming the NHS.
It doesn't seem anything like that, indeed the exact opposite.
What it seems like is trying to get this over as quickly as possible for the economy and using schools as a very poorly targeted transmission vector.
They’re a bit further down the path than we are
He did it a week ago and given the lack of testing in the UK especially amongst those with minor symptoms, like school kids, we have no real idea how far down the path we are.
My SIL is also a teacher and is isolating with fever, cough and muscle aches, not tested though and her school is still open.
Both Singapore and Taiwan have been pretty successful at combating growth and have kept their schools open, Sweden was certainly keeping their schools open too.
News from Taiwan… they selective closed schools by geographical region, centrally controlled, to stop spread. They didn’t just leave heads to wing it.
[ edit : they also had 2 weeks of blanket closures extending the holidays last month - I still expect we’ll do the same with the Easter Hols ]
Spoke to the vet yesterday and he said they aren’t letting people stock up on animal meds to stop shortages occurring.
I had wondered what would have happened if we had moved to rationing supply to prevent panic buying first. Would it have created more or less - Aaaaaaargh for everyone. One Aaaaargh for the announcement; one for the I've not got anything in; then it would be down to first world problems about the colour of loo roll that was available because there was food and supplies. Just less choice on what you can have.
I also wondered if they immediately sacked that off for fear of rioting and would we really be that bad as a society. Or would it spook the markets too much, or, or, or... who knows
Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.
Outofbreath, legitimate concerns about herd immunity in terms of the coronavirus have been raised by actual experts. You know this. Stop talking bollocks.
No, that’s not the plan.
It is, and not just in the UK.
It's the plan worldwide.
Unless you can point me to a country planing to lock down until a vaccine is developed in 24 months or maybe never.
Pretty much everyone I know who has kids has said to me ‘What’s the point in us not going out if we are sending our kids to school to catch it and bring it home’. They’re right. If reducing the spread is the primary goal, then we should eliminate what is probably the primary vector for that spread. The risk to kids is irrelevant, it’s their ability to spread it to those who are at high risk.
Mixed messaging if people are prepared to think for more than two seconds about it.
But remember, this government has won twice by assuming that enough people don't think about anything for more than two seconds. Ever.
Maybe they're right.
I agree with Dazh on the lask of people paying attention, yesterday picking up my child drove through the local town at 4.30, pubs full, elderly people browsing trinkets shops in groups. Until things are enforced, too many people will jsut carry on as normal.
Great hearing brexit transition period will definitely end on 31st december though; its not like the imperial study predicts that that is when the second wave will be just about peaking or anything!
Really feel for small businesses at the moment. Government measures are half baked, and not only that, in two weeks will be the biggest ever rise in national minimum wage. While in normal times this hsould be appluaded, its hardly going to help stop people cutting staff or closing up.
Outofbreath, legitimate concerns about herd immunity in terms of the coronavirus have been raised by actual experts.
Which in no way contracticts my statement - "Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative."
Yesterday both of our sons were off school with a cold (snotty nose, running a bit warm) eldest (9) has asthma and prone to chest infections, youngest (5) was born 16 weeks early and had chronic lung disease also prone to chest infections. I have just had the school on the phone saying that as long as they dont have a cough that they are allowed back to school.
Which in no way contracticts my statement – “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.”
Yes it does. You don’t know whether there will be a vaccine or not. There “may never be one” is a ridiculous basis to make the logical jump to infecting everyone.
You are wrong about containment, China has it contained. We need to slow the spread enough that better treatments or vaccines can be found if we decide against containment.
In short, stop going full brexiteer by repeating the same soundbite over and over despite being shown that you are in the wrong and experts disagree with you.
There’s been a bit of fake news over ibuprofen and CV, but it seems from the BMJ there might be something in it,
So it isn’t fake news then?
Plenty of fake news about it, seeded by a glimmer of something real. Similar advice has been suggested to apply to chickenpox, for example, where ibuprofen MAY not be as effective at treating as paracetamol.
While in normal times this should be applauded, its hardly going to help stop people cutting staff or closing up
I'm presently freelancing for a large import/distribution company
They started letting all the casual/agency staff (of whom there are millions in the UK economy) go this morning. I suspect that will have been happening in an awful lot of places as companies baton down the hatches and cut costs as their revenue and cashflow dry up.
There are going to be an awful lot of newly unemployed people flooding into a Universal Credits benefits system which can't even cope with the relatively small number of claimants it has at present
Pretty much everyone I know who has kids has said to me ‘What’s the point in us not going out if we are sending our kids to school to catch it and bring it home’.
I've got kids and we've all reduced social contact to nill apart from school and the bare minimum for work.
I've had a couple of social/club meetings this week I've not attended, I'd guess there have been 50-60 people who I haven't come into contact with. That makes a big difference.
Personally, I think it's been worth following the guidelines even though the schools are still open. (The fact the schools are open means it's even more important to follow the guidelines.)
Frances response looks very much like outright containment to me now.
Daz – In between typing your increasingly hysterical missives, I’m picturing you doing this
probably not far off tbh. In between the dark humour, and wide eyed amazement at what’s going on, I’m genuinely terrified of where this will end up. I’d be reassured if I could see any evidence that we’re over-reacting, but let’s be honest here in the UK it’s the opposite at pretty much every level of society. I just can’t ignore what I can easily see.
Which in no way contracticts my statement – “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.”
Yes it does.
No it doesn't. There is no country that is going into lock down until a vaccine is discovered. Any strategy other than that is a herd immunity strategy.
You gave China as an example but failed to claim they were remaining in lock down indefinately, because they're not. They're going to come out of lockdown with 95pc of their population without resistance. So it will flare up again, and they'll go into lockdown again. It's a herd immunity strategy.
Which in no way contracticts my statement – “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.”
That's assuming that once you've had it you can't be reinfected. And that's a very bold and certainly unproven claim.
At this point it'd be more accurate to say, “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get sick and possibly die. There’s no alternative.”
I wonder how long it'll be before people start having 'pox parties'?
.
Frances response looks very much like outright containment to me now.
Nope it's spread widely in their population, it's a herd immunity strategy. France, Italy and Spain are going to come out of this with high levels of resistance in their populations. What they're doing now is reducing cases in the short term so their Hospitals can cope. Identical strategy to ours, they're just a few weeks ahead of us.
Come on, give me one example of a country that is going into lock down until a vaccine is discovered.
Actually don't, I've given you two chances. I'll just stop replying to you instead.
No it doesn’t. There is no country that is going into lock down until a vaccine is discovered. Any strategy other than that is a herd immunity strategy.
You gave China as an example but failed to claim they were remaining in lock down indefinately, because they’re not. They’re going to come out of lockdown with 95pc of their population without resistance. So it will flare up again, and they’ll go into lockdown again. It’s a herd immunity strategy.
Utterly unmitigated donkey bollocks.
No one has officially announced their long term strategy, all countries are playing this on a day by day basis. However, Chinese health researchers have stated that China will use rolling lockdowns when it flairs up again and that is a perfectly sensible response.
Nope it’s spread widely in their population, it’s a herd immunity strategy. France, Italy and Spain are going to come out of this with high levels of resistance in their populations. What they’re doing now is reducing cases in the short term so their Hospitals can cope. Identical strategy to ours, they’re just a few weeks ahead of us.
The policies put in place by France are broadly equivalent to the lockdowns used in China.
That’s assuming that once you’ve had it you can’t be reinfected. And that’s a very bold and certainly unproven claim.
There have only been two cases where people have been reinfected worldwide. Ergo people do most likely get resistance once they've had it.
...but it's academic, there is literally no alternative.
Once this is over, there will be no return to business as usual
Indeed. the cost of borrowing has been kept extremely low since the banking crisis of 2007, which has resulted in an asset price bubble that has further fueled inequality. Moribund median wages will mean that it's increasingly more difficult for businesses to turn a profit. The super-wealthy have by and large been shielded from this and have pushed for deregulation and divergence - the likes of Mercer, Koch et al have spent a fortune lobbying governments to push this agenda. A case in point being Virgin Atlantic asking staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave (spread over six months) contrasting with the founder of the airline who has a net worth of £3.2bn and who owns an island.
We will be in a situation where we absolutely have to ask those who've enjoyed the most privilege to actually pay their taxes, if ordinary people carry the debt burden of a nation then they won't be able to buy stuff. If demand falls then the model of privatising profits but nationalising losses will be unsustainable. It certainly changes the shape of the Brexit mooted until very recently - we will simply not be able to contain the economic and social fallout on the back of the Covid-19 outbreak.
…but it’s academic, there is literally no alternative.
Apart from all of the actual academics and public health officials/researchers who state that there is.
So whilst we're all hanging about nervously waiting for a vaccine that doesn't kill people in 12 months, I saw an interesting thing about choroquine, which was used for quite a long time as an antimalarial (until resistance started to be detected) during and after the second world war.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32074550/
It seems to work as protection, and also to speed up recovery. It's a very well understood drug in terms of side-effects, and can be produced in large quantities pretty quickly. It's also out of patent, so it's cheap to make.
Give the doctors and scientists a few more weeks' breathing space, and we may see a different approach to isolation and quarantine. We may not, but that's science for you.
A case in point being Virgin Atlantic asking staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave (spread over six months) contrasting with the founder of the airline who has a net worth of £3.2bn and who owns an island.
We will be in a situation where we absolutely have to ask those who’ve enjoyed the most privilege to actually pay their taxes
The business model needs to change completely. Heathrow airport is presently going cap in hand to the govenment for a taxpayer-funded bailout. In the last five years they have paid out over £1.5 billion in dividends to their shareholders.
We've put up with ten years of austerity to pay for the last bailout which nationalised the losses and privatised the profits. I can't see that happening a second time around
I saw an interesting thing about choroquine, which was used for quite a long time as an antimalarial (until resistance started to be detected) during and after the second world w
Won't happen - we won't trust "foreign" experts and will spend months pissing around with our own clinical trials.
Ergo people do most likely get resistance once they’ve had it.
Can we block this guy’s nonsense from this thread in some way? I know the seed of this came from “official” sources, but things have just moved on, and promoters of the “let it spread and we’ll get herd immunity” meme are dangerous now.
Cougar
That’s assuming that once you’ve had it you can’t be reinfected. And that’s a very bold and certainly unproven claim.
At this point it’d be more accurate to say, “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get sick and possibly die. There’s no alternative.”
Not really much more accurate ... because its a logical fallacy. Even if there never is an effective vaccine it may be contained, lots of communicable diseases are.
However the "get sick and possibly die part" is yet another fallacy.
The virus may be contained and die off (like Spanish Flu)
There may be no vaccine but more effective treatments
There may be more units created to handle life threatening cases
re schools closure; the imperial report:
Closure of all schools, 25% of universities remain open. Household contact rates for student families increase by 50% during closure. Contacts in the community increase by 25% during closure.
Note added home and community contact. Blanket long term school closure actually increased mortality. It moved the peak infection to much later in the year - without any school closure the flow through ICU beds was maintained at a rate such that the most lives are saved overall.
They identify the elderly quarantine as being the most important measure, in combination with case isolation (7 day of single infected) and home quarantine (14 days for family to be clear), to reduce ICU bed demand.
Later part talks about selectively closing schools to moderate the ICU usage and the effect this has. This was most beneficial when applied around the time when an ICU peak started; when bed demand reduced schools could open again.
This is essentially the current announced policy.
I do not pretend to know the modelling behind the report, not trying to sound clever or preachy, just point out this is what the current policy is and until something more definite comes along, it'll remain so. I guess.
As Ian Dury noted, there ain't half been some clever ****
A lot of them go to imperial college.
They're cleverer than me, for sure.
So whilst we’re all hanging about nervously waiting for a vaccine that doesn’t kill people in 12 months, I saw an interesting thing about choroquine, which was used for quite a long time as an antimalarial (until resistance started to be detected) during and after the second world war.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32074550/
It seems to work as protection, and also to speed up recovery. It’s a very well understood drug in terms of side-effects, and can be produced in large quantities pretty quickly. It’s also out of patent, so it’s cheap to make.
I've seen a few of these sorts of claims on social media (including this one) and they all look totally plausible. I wonder if there are people already experimenting with this stuff and if not why not?
Crazy that UK still open.
People in France in vast majority following advice.