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The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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You’d not be able to go abroad without them checking your identity with the pass, you’d need to scan in places you visited.

Scary times where you need some sort of identification to cross borders …….


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 8:18 pm
 Drac
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Isn’t it just.


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 10:49 pm
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Removing masks in school from tomorrow is ridiculous, dropping them for all next week even more so. He’s doing this to try and appease the public due to his scandal.

What is the point of restrictions now the risk of the NHS being overrun has subsided?


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 10:58 pm
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What is the point of restrictions now the risk of the NHS being overrun has subsided?

You understand what has caused that risk to subside?


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:01 pm
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You understand what has caused that risk to subside?

A mild variant?


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:02 pm
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You understand what has caused that risk to subside?

Yep, the only point in restrictions is to stop the NHS being overrun - that has gone so no reason to delay the spread. -


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:19 pm
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I have no intention of changing my mask wearing regime and have enough LFT kits for the short-term.
Why wear a mask? Too many people don't bother so I'm allowing for their behaviour in my behaviour.
It's tempting to describe their behaviour as stupid, ignorant and irresponsible - but I won't.
Does anyone trust the 'great british public' to demonstrate and apply 'great british common sense'?


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:23 pm
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The NHS isn’t in the clear yet, unfortunately, well not up here anyway. And Education is still being hit hard. Whether either can be helped by continued mask wearing in schools up here, I don’t know, but the “from tomorrow everywhere in England” rushed announcement doesn’t seem to be taking into account that we’re not all in the same position as the South East as regards infections or hospitalisations.


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:29 pm
 Drac
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What is the point of restrictions now the risk of the NHS being overrun has subsided?

It has best tell that to the hospitals then.


 
Posted : 19/01/2022 11:38 pm
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It has best tell that to the hospitals then

Don't need to NHS data tells us.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:02 am
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WHO Covid adviser to the UK was on the TV almost pleading with people not to let their guard down and "keep doing what they've been doing". Masks, etc.

I'm mote inclined to take notice of him than a rat trapped in a corner that will bite its own leg off to further it's escape.

Oh I'm over cautious, who cares?

There will be many thinking similar.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:06 am
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At a personal level you lose nothing by being overcautious.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:15 am
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Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck Sharp & Dohme's Lagevrio are the first oral medicines for the virus to be approved for use in Australia by the TGA.

Whoop - news just in.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:46 am
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Good news mate.👍

When Paxlovid becomes readily available in the UK I'll finally be able to relax a bit. A 92 year old, boosted or not, is likely to have a rough time with Covid.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:49 am
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reeksy
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At a personal level you lose nothing by being overcautious.

Yeah, that's it basically. I'm not preaching to others to wear a mask now, I've also long ago given up on the UK government and much of its decisions in regard to Covid... it's just a personal choice for me.

I'm hoping by Spring even I won't be wearing them in shops. Possibly.👍


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:52 am
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Pfizer’s Paxlovid and Merck Sharp & Dohme’s Lagevrio are the first oral medicines for the virus to be approved for use in Australia by the TGA.

Staff forum later today, be interesting to see if the ID Director talks about this ...


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 12:53 am
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Yeah, I haven't read the licence fully, but this is mild/moderate patients (not on oxygen) with an increased risk of hospitalization/death. So I think this is going to be an exercise of identifying those populations in advance, and ensuring that they get rapid access to these at the point they are diagnosed.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 1:41 am
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The way i see mask wearing now - after much hoo-hah ^above where there was the rather mis-leading headline figure of (was it?) 53% efficacy, and the whole subsequent de-bunking, and after on this thread oftentimes having it explained to us the specific difficulties in conducting meaningful trials, someone managed to delve into the data (i <3 this thread) to work out a probably more reasonable estimation that masks give something like a 10% protection from infection, over a population, if they have been mandated in certain spaces - in the context of 'marginal gains'.

If i said to you, at the start of a Grand Tour, that i could give you something perfectly legal, non-invasive, and non-pharmaceutical, that would give you a 10% advantage over your competitors, but with a downside that it would mildly inconvenience you, would you take it?

Would you?


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 1:43 am
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Yes exactly. The efficacy of population-based mask wearing is so difficult to measure - changes to mask mandates very rarely happen in isolation, and are often in response to a changing situation. Then you've got compliance, what type of masks people are wearing, what sort of activities people are engaging in (outside sporting events vs indoor shopping), household vs non-household spread.... etc etc. It's just very difficult.

But it seems to me that people are divided into two camps:

1: There is enough evidence to show me that mask wearing makes a meaningful difference, and it's no great inconvenience, so I'm going to do it.

2: until you provide me with a iron-clad, copper-bottomed trial showing unequivocally that mask wearing is effective in [insert specific social situation], I'm going to refuse to wear one.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 2:21 am
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Rhetorical question of course.

10% seems surprisingly low actually. When vaccination rates were much lower, we had several Delta outbreaks in Queensland that were swiftly stifled through nothing more than masks and COVID+ isolation.

batfink - presumably that could be a gamechanger for the vulnerable populations.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 2:25 am
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1: There is enough evidence to show me that mask wearing makes a meaningful difference, and it’s no great inconvenience, so I’m going to do it.

2: until you provide me with a iron-clad, copper-bottomed trial showing unequivocally that mask wearing is effective in [insert specific social situation], I’m going to refuse to wear one.

And
3: My chin / beard is so pretty I'd be depriving you all of the opportunity to bathe in my beauty

4: I'm an alpha male and a mask would indicate weakness. I'm not weak, but i'm also not intelligent enough to think beyond implications to myself.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 2:30 am
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Lol

What gets me is the: "if the mask is there to protect me, then I choose not to wear it - it's my choice"

and

"if the mask is there to protect you, then that's not my responsibility, it's yours - if you are not comfortable being in [insert specific social situation] then you need to stay at home cowering behind your sofa"


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 2:46 am
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Yes, something so simple that some people don't seem to understand.

I mean really?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-20/czech-singer-dies-after-deliberately-getting-covid/100768826

So the news here is that we're excited about the approval of Novovax as it potentially works for people that can't have other vaccines, and the two newly approved antivirals ... but don't know when we'll get access.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 3:12 am
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If i said to you, at the start of a Grand Tour, that i could give you something perfectly legal, non-invasive, and non-pharmaceutical, that would give you a 10% advantage over your competitors, but with a downside that it would mildly inconvenience you, would you take it?

Would you?

Probably the best I've heard it explained.

The pandemic seems to have split the population into two groups - those who quietly get on with taking precautions hoping it protects them and others, even a little bit, and those who want the world to know that they won't.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 6:51 am
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@reeksy, what a sad story, terrible for her son

<p class="_1HzXw">Mr Rek blamed the death on a local anti-vax movement, saying its leaders had convinced his mother against vaccination and thus had "blood on their hands".</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">"I know exactly who influenced her … It makes me sad that she believed strangers more than her proper family," Mr Rek said.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">"It wasn't just total disinformation but also views on natural immunity and antibodies acquired through infection," he added.</p>


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 9:28 am
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Interesting watching Sajid Javid trying to explain why March is the target for removing self isolation. Guess he can't say it's part of Operation Grand Flourish and the timing is all about the anniversary for Lockdown 1.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 9:43 am
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They should do another eat out to help out, that was a real winner last time…

Also seems like a brilliant idea to ease restrictions on visits to care homes at the same time, what could possibly go wrong.


 
Posted : 20/01/2022 11:08 am
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@Murray - yep, very sad. And unnecessary.

Some interesting research suggesting vaccines are successful in reducing the (admittedly rare) multi-system inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) in children 12-18. I can't see from a quick look that they've proved causation, in fact "The current findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that vaccination is likely effective in preventing severe COVID-19–related complications in children, including MIS-C.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e1.htm?s_cid=mm7102e1_w


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 3:16 am
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It's one side of the argument rather than the debate, but there are definitely questions to answer. I welcome that, I think any scientist needs to reflect and undergo peer review.

The trouble of course is that there isn't really any way of truly knowing - there's no control experiment, even those that didn't have such severe lockdowns still had populations that voluntarily reduced their exposures rather than carry on as normal. But yes, hindsight offers great opportunity.

I don't think his presentation of the facts is quite right - not in the sense of the other studies or reviews that he refers to but he overly politicises it blaming the left wing papers and the BBC and praising the Daily Mail, and the rhetoric in how he describes the modellers - he's not debating, he's made his mind up based on the studies he's chosen to represent and as at the top this is only one side of it - so it grated a bit.

I also wonder if we went over the top, I've seen the damage to people's health and wellbeing, and indeed nearly two years ago I was querying if the long term effects will be bigger than the immediate ones. God knows, if fuel poverty already causes thousands of deaths per year the inflation of fuel prices etc is a substantial risk now for many others who have to choose heat or eat. But I'm not sure I agree that this was the worst possible course of action, or just the least shit, or somewhere between. That's what we have to learn by proper independant review (that I'm not sure we'll ever get)


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 8:47 am
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Welcome to the forum Adam. Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:14 am
 kilo
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As short a precis as you like.

“Hi my names Akbar, etc, got banned back - again”


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:21 am
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“Hi my names Akbar, etc, got banned back – again”

👍


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:24 am
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Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.

Damning!


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:29 am
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Son tested positive yesterday, just filled in track and trace form online. It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days!!! FFS who is organising this shite.
At least the text I got got it right.

Last time when Mrs anagallis had it, track n trace told me I didn't need to isolate as I wasn't a close contact despite living with her but that my son did...


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:48 am
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It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days

Didn't it have an 'unless exempt' get out clause? Mine did, and I then had to follow a chain of links and read a lot of stuff to discover that I, like almost everyone else, was exempt.


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 9:51 am
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TiRed, after listening to your podcast on here, were you not associated with some of this modelling and the likes of Neil Ferguson who I think you may have mentioned a couple of times?

Associated, yes - I'm a member of SPI-M after all. I have not personally produced any projections beyond four to six weeks (and that's a long time for forward projection), and my models have been statistical rather than epidemiological. I've never made an "hysterical" projection. Such statistical models are not used for predicting policy changes as they are not "mechanism-based". They are useful for near-term projection only.

As it happens, the original naive models of SARS-CoV-2 regarding morbidity were in fact reasonable with their projection of about 250k deaths. Interventions (lockdowns and vaccination) reduced this total. NPIs were the only available intervention in March 2020. There is ample evidence of the effects of lockdown on transmission and it is easy to spot in our own data (no model required). One can debate their cost-effectiveness, but not their efficacy.

For the record, I have had nothing to do with Imperial College, Foot and Mouth, or CJD - I left epidemiology in 2000 for Clinical Pharmacology. I do however know the group members.


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 1:16 pm
 Drac
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Son tested positive yesterday, just filled in track and trace form online. It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days!!! FFS who is organising this shite.
At least the text I got got it right.

Isn’t close contact still 10 days unless you meet the rules for not needing to?


 
Posted : 21/01/2022 1:29 pm
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As I’ve said before, I’m part of the CovBoost trial, that investigated and proved the booster programme.
We were due to be reporting in Feb for end of trial blood work. That’s just been cancelled pending a trial of a 4th jab, blind selection between either a 4th Pfizer and a new Moderna “omicron specific” mRNA vaccine.


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 12:23 am
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It is time for new antigens. The current vaccines have lost 40-fold potency to neutralise omicron compared to wild type. That’s about ten months of duration of protection. A new vaccine will restore longevity of protection for symptomatic infection.

Of course the NEXT variant, like influenza, remains unknown, so it’s a bit of a gamble as to whether the number of omicron mutations are here to stay. But given other escape mutants, some of them are likely permanent (hello E484 and 417).

The approval pathways for a new vaccine is not certain. Perhaps a compatible efficacy study against an original strain that works less well. That’s an inefficient route.


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 12:30 am
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kelvin
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Welcome to the forum Adam. Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.

Slightly angry man blaming scientists and the left wing media for lockdown.

He gives a discount code near end if anyone wants to take out a sub with the Daily Mail.


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 3:10 am
 DrP
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Aaaand....
DrP now has the 'rona 🙄😷🤒🤕🤧

Had my daughter, (and son, as the ex weight gave either child) who tested positive from Monday, at home with me all week..
She tried her best to stay in her room, but she's only 7 so would come wake me up still etc...
Woke at 3 am fever, cough and sure throat...
LFT positive...
Yay 🙄

DrP


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 6:00 am
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@DrP

Well you stay safe and keep tucked under that duvet.


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 6:57 am
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Sorry, I know this will have been covered previously but as lots more of us have recently had a positive test for the first time, what difference does this make to longer term immunity, if any? Does infection mean 'long' term protection or does it wain just as fast as my jabs/booster?

The logical part of my brain knows that we aren't out of the woods yet but my chimp is feeling pretty bulletproof...


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 8:06 am
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Slightly angry man blaming scientists and the left wing media for lockdown.

Jumped on by one of our angry men, calmer response from another.

Hope you're OK DrP.

Mate tested positive yesterday, we had an hour in the pub together Wednesday night. I'm still testing negative so far, hopefully kept far enough away from him. Restricting vulnerable contacts in the meantime....


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 9:14 am
 Drac
Posts: 50622
 

Does infection mean ‘long’ term protection or does it wain just as fast as my jabs/booster?

It’s wains faster than the vaccine.


 
Posted : 22/01/2022 9:34 am
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