London is suffering most because it was the EARLIEST to have omicron. A later introduction of omicron to other regions manifests in a time delay. The density of population and alleged low vaccination are not significant factors because we are all supposed to be home working anyway. East of England is growing, and the other NHS regions will turn over presently after cases do. Hospitalisations lag cases by about 8 days, deaths by three weeks.
I’m just presenting an alternative approach for discussion.
Trolling then!
a vaccine that now doesn’t work against the current variant
Fake news. Vaccination is one of the reasons South Africa gives for lower hospital admissions with Omicron. Vaccination is still effective in preventing serious illness in many of thsoe infected.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/south-africa-omicron-hospitalizations.html
A troll for sure:
a vaccine that now doesn’t work
So it did work and has suddenly stopped? oh really. Mutations were always going to happen, and everything I'm seeing is that tripple vaccinated people are still far, far, less likely to have serious or grave consequences, whilst also being less conductive to spreading it.
Combine that with masks and social distancing, and that further restricts the virus.
and you still are happy to go along with it and just do what they say without question?
Honestly, we question it all the time but realise that in the absence of all the data, meetings and experts all we’re really doing is voicing frustration.
Do you honestly think you know better based on nothing other than gut feeling?
And we’re getting boosters of “current vaccines” that improve that. They still “work” in terms of improving overall health outcomes for the population. We will need “new vaccines” at some point, and they will come, but the current vaccines have changed the game for us this winter.
Note sure this is the right place for this post, but apparently unless you started a sick absence from work before 10th December, you only need a GP fit note instead of self-certification after an absence of greater than 28 days (instead of standard 7).
https://www.gov.uk/taking-sick-leave
a vaccine that now doesn’t work
This is a common thing i get told by my anti vax brother. I think the last bit of research said it was 80% effective against the new variant once given a booster. I would really love to know what you mean by "doesn't work?"
Surly 80% chance of not getting sick from virus is better than getting the virus. The flu wont kill me but I still get a jab because well... I don't want to spend a week in bed.
Sometimes I do question if further social restrictions (if not full lockdowns) are worth the economic and human costs. We're back to the question I asked many months ago: what's the end goal here? Clearly, some deaths must be acceptable because we cannot live in a society where safety is made an absolute or first-order value.
Do we think restrictions announced tomorrow?
I'm putting a fiver on a press conference, 3 households max at Christmas.
Kind of what I think @morecashthandash. We will know as it’ll be leaked in the papers.
Small study numbers but some remarkable levels of immunity following breakthrough infection after double vaxxed.
We’re back to the question I asked many months ago: what’s the end goal here?
Get through January and February without hospitals turning away thousands of people with falling blood oxygen levels? I’m sure there many “goals”, but there’s one for you.
That's a really interesting article Graham. Although I may just think that as it might be a way out.
I suspect that a huge amount of the population will be triple jabbed plus breakthrough by mid 2022, so i hope like hell that data can be replicated in a bigger sample size.
It does make sense biologically as infection will generate a much wider spread of antibodies rather than a relatively homogeneous range against a vaccine
what’s the end goal here
Trouble is there's too wide a range of opinions on that to suit politicians (in any country, regardless of where they are on the political compass) as whatever they do they will be unpopular now with their voters. So instead we are just bumbling along without a defined goal.
Get through January and February without hospitals turning away thousands of people with falling blood oxygen levels? I’m sure there many “goals”, but there’s one for you.
So if this is the goal, what interventions are you proposing over what time periods?
Trouble is there’s too wide a range of opinions on that to suit politicians (in any country, regardless of where they are on the political compass) as whatever they do they will be unpopular now with their voters. So instead we are just bumbling along without a defined goal.
You literally said a "vaccine that now doesn’t work" less than an hour ago.
And now you are saying it's a political issue because the virus is unpopular? maybe take a look in the mirror.
I’m not suggesting anything, I don’t need to. I just need to trust that those who know more about this stuff than me will make the most appropriate decision for the best outcome and I’ll do what they tell me.
Hopefully everyone else will trust those who know more about this stuff, but...
Clearly, some deaths must be acceptable because we cannot live in a society where safety is made an absolute or first-order value.
I'm pretty sure it's been said a million times already, but it's not about deaths, it's about hospital capacity.
You literally said a “vaccine that now doesn’t work” less than an hour ago.
And now you are saying it’s a political issue because the virus is unpopular? maybe take a look in the mirror.
Sorry, I don't understand what you mean?
Sorry, I don’t understand what you mean?
Don't worry, I wasn't under the assumption that you would.
Just had to ask my 17 yr old not to go into London tomorrow (2hrs each way on train) with a group of 8 to Winter Wonderland in Hyde park. She is devastated, I feel terrible. Tell me I’m not overreacting - we have 3 elderly (70s and 80s) relatives coming next week for Xmas…
Just had to ask my 17 yr old not to go into London tomorrow (2hrs each way on train) with a group of 8 to Winter Wonderland in Hyde park. She is devastated, I feel terrible. Tell me I’m not overreacting – we have 3 elderly (70s and 80s) relatives coming next week for Xmas…
You've done the sensible thing not the popular thing. Better she's devastated for this than devastated as she passed on the virus and killed her gran.
With Omicron accelerating to become the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 aka Coronavirus, what happens to the Delta strain? Will Omicron snuff it out and it cease to exist?
If so why/how? Can a person not get infected with 2 strains? Is it because people isolate?
Or does Delta (or any other strain) just keep bubbling along, perhaps resurging again should conditions favour it?
(Please tag me in your reply if you know how)
Not over reacting in the slightest Winston. My Tesco shop tomorrow is going to be more focussed than ever.
East of England is growing,
The joys of being within reasonable rail commuting distance of that London. Traffic levels are starting to fall away as school finishes but the rail commuters continue to spread the plague. (Probably because they have a presentee-ism management structure and WFH is frowned upon and those with a large commercial property portfolio have got their sock puppets in Westminster to keep it all open).
The actual scenario may differ but there are likely millions making similar decisions as you at the moment Winston.
I wouldn't want to think of the long term
emotional damage it might do to you daughter if things went wrong. So you aren't just protecting your elderly relatives.
The main question from my daughter was “so why are the others still going”
That’s 3 sets of parents (siblings going) who have made a different decision.
Tbh I’d like to say “that’s because they are idiots and btw 2 out of 3 of them voted brexit….but apparently This Is Not The Way according to my lovely wife
The main question from my daughter was “so why are the others still going”
That's a tough question to answer to a child...
Cognitive dissonance is the answer, some people will do what they want and build up 'reasons' for thier stance regardless of facts.
No one likes to admit they are wrong, even when they clearly are.
Just teach your daugter critical thinking, how to weigh up opinons and facts.
they might as well stop hiding and get on with their lives
Missed this, and it stinks. People aren’t “hiding”, they never have been, they have been making sacrifices to help protect others, not least their friends and family who work in hospitals and care that have had quite horrifying tales to tell over the course of this pandemic. “Hiding”… you can do one, quite frankly.
what happens to the Delta strain? Will Omicron snuff it out and it cease to exist?
Both strains are competing for a similar resource - hosts who are capable of acquiring and transmitting it onwards. Delta has been the dominant strain, but a number of things put it at a disadvantage against Omicron.
1)Vaccines work better against Delta
2)People who have already had delta are less likely to get it again, but more likely to catch Omicron
3)Omicron is much more transmissible than delta
This certainly means Omicron will make up a significant majority of covid cases pretty quickly, but whether this will mean that, over time, Delta is extinguished, is another matter. There are still even now cases of earlier strains such as alpha popping up long after delta became dominant, suggesting it is still finding pockets of suitable hosts here and there.
Isn’t Omicron itself descended from a strain that was thought outcompeted, internationally?
It is, you'd have thought the best candidate for the source of the next strain would be delta, but SA was only just coming out of its delta wave back in September/October, so plenty of alpha still hanging around.
So anyone willing to have a guess/bet on when the number of infections passes the 100k mark? The numbers usually drop over the weekend and Monday due to reporting timescales and peak on a Wednesday but I think Tuesday's figures will be huge. It could be a trigger point as 100k+ just sounds a lot worse than 80-90k to a lot of people.
So anyone willing to have a guess/bet on when the number of infections passes the 100k mark? The numbers usually drop over the weekend and Monday due to reporting timescales and peak on a Wednesday but I think Tuesday’s figures will be huge. It could be a trigger point as 100k+ just sounds a lot worse than 80-90k to a lot of people.
Impossible to say with any certainty. The uk graph is looking like it will only get much, MUCH worse for us, at least for the next few months.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
So if I was a gambler, I'd bet on 20% -30% pointless deaths over the winter period, if you factor in normal deaths due to the NHS being knackered by the Conservatives anyway.
@dmorts the classic evolutionary theory is that fitter strains will outcompete and replace other strains. In practice, other strains may be retained at low levels. It’s unusual to get two predominant strains at say 50-50. But geography can play a role in stabilising multiple strains.
Omicron shares a lineage with C.1.2 which was at low levels in SAfrica even when they had delta. It also shares some similarity with Beta, which we have had very little (maintained by introductions). It has acquired mutations that make it look more like delta. But that path looks like a very typical route the virus is pushed down by people infected for long times due to immune pressure.
Delta is being outcompeted by omicron but this may be because omicron is easier to catch among our vaccinated population, rather than it being intrinsically more spreadable. The growth rate for infections looks at least as fast as the original wild type Wuhan strain of March 2020 (which itself acquired a D614G mutation to aid spread). Severity of infection is not known, but the null hypothesis is that it looks like delta. Which looks like alpha. Which looks like wild type. The magnitude of changes in severity is small. The immune protection afforded by vaccines and infection history may be larger.
So.... given that almost 2 years into this pandemic we are being hindered by a new variant. What is to say that in another two years we are at the same point, another variant, vaccines becoming less effective, and contact restrictions being imposed? It now seems like a never ending cycle that wont let up with restricting our lives. Has Science always saw it as this? Is the end goal just always minimising the burden on healthcare?
What is to say that in another two years we are at the same point, another variant,
Population immunity is rising. With every wave. And that’s a good thing. The hosts are evolving too with adaptive immunity. We’re currently pacing the virus, but I think we’ll get ahead with therapies and better vaccines. The current vaccine is actually not so bad. This won’t be groundhog lockdown day. But winters are hard on healthcare. They always have been.
We have other coronaviruses too, and eventually this one will look the same. A childhood infection that builds immunity and a nasty pathogen for the elderly. That’s also the story for RSV, influenza and to some extent rhinovirus.
My wife has had her booster, so have I. My in-laws are hesitating, as are some of my colleagues. Primary reason seems to be that they had adverse reactions to previous rounds and are therefore worried they will be sick for Christmas (yeah, I know).
I'm personally not going to try too hard to remonstrate with people, but I have mentioned to some people a little of the commentary on here around waning.
I wondered, though, is there a calculator anywhere where you can enter the dates of your vaccination and the variety and it spits out an estimate of your potential antibody levels? Is that even possible?
I think for the people that want data, this could be a helpful reminder to them that simply having the first two jabs won't be enough.
they had adverse reactions to previous rounds
If it helps, I found AZ was pretty punchy. But I barely noticed the Moderna booster.
Thanks TiRed - your posts are very valued and I listened to your podcast, which was funny, underplayed and passionate. I hope your red hair is not going too grey with this. Keep up the updates. Congratulations on the STW win. (Obviously more important than the other trivial award)
So…. given that almost 2 years into this pandemic we are being hindered by a new variant. What is to say that in another two years we are at the same point, another variant,
As TiRed says, this one will slowly fizzle away... The real question is what we do as a global society in another pandemic, say one with a 3or4% death rate? Or a pandemic that is more indiscriminate of age or health than Covid? Something with an asymptomatic period that is more deadly.
Considering how badly western society has handled this one, I don't think it's something we are prepared for at all.
The way the economy works, I'd have thought it's likely that global pandemics will be more frequent - & more than likely another within our lifetimes.
The main question from my daughter was “so why are the others still going”
That’s a tough question to answer to a child…
Cognitive dissonance is the answer, some people will do what they want and build up ‘reasons’ for thier stance regardless of facts.
No one likes to admit they are wrong, even when they clearly are.
Just teach your daugter critical thinking, how to weigh up opinons and facts.
I'm very pro-science, pro-vaccines. I have supported the stance on here against new-comers
My wife and kids are into London tomorrow to see a show. They live for theatre and have been looking forward to this all year. They are all vaxxed and the kids had it in August. We have agonised if it's the right thing to do and they are going ahead.
It's a risk, for sure. But one on balance they and we are prepared to take, and one that I think we are all needing to think about more and more, as this cannot continue indefinitely.
