I think we’ll get ahead with therapies
This is a good point, I keep seeing articles about actual treatments for once you have the disease, which is of course the other leg of research. If you could get a pill for COVID then how much would it change the situation? Presumably transmission wouldn't change much, because if you were an asymptomatic carrier you wouldn't take the pill in the first place; or there'd still be a lag between catching it and showing symptoms during which time you'd be out and about transmitting it. But it would ease pressure on medical facilities.
this cannot continue indefinitely.
Agree, but due to a global economy it'll more like take around 4 or 5 years though even with vaccines. This is why global vaccinations are the key, not just domestic.
The big historical pandemics have stopped for various reasons, most are more morbid...
Plague of Justinian in 541 - killed 30-50 million people, approx half the global population at the time, it's thought to have stopped because there was no one left to infect, those remaining had a natural immunity.
The black death 1347 - took around 4 years and approx 20million. They had no idea of what it was, by some country's introduced quarantine for sailors which worked, so they knew it proximity was a factor. Also first uses of the word 'quarantine' as a result.
Plague of London 1348-1665 - kept resurfacing every 10 yrs or so. Killed around 20%, also first laws English of isolating the sick introduced. (Yes it really did go on for over 300 yrs). The last outbreak in 1665 killed 100k & the infected were forcibly shut in their homes (red cross on doors etc) and all public entertainment was banned - the first uk 'lock down' you could say.
Smallpox 1500 - 1980 - killed millions wiped out entire civilizations, introduced by Europeans to America etc. Eventually was stopped by vaccines in 1980!! Killed upto 95% infected of indigenous Americans....
Spanish flu 1916 - 1918 - again lock downs were put in place, stopping entertainment etc. Ended because people had either died or had natural immunity.
Puts going to the theatre for 'normality' into perspective.
If it helps, I found AZ was pretty punchy. But I barely noticed the Moderna booster.
Thanks. I didn't have much reaction to AZ X2 or Pfizer booster, but the MIL is hanging out for Moderna having reacted to Pfizer previously... I don't think Moderna is available locally yet.
Point three is interesting - doesn't seem to descend to the lungs as much as other variants. That would be good although as pointed out it is still a numbers game.
Point 3 I that Guardian article looks hopeful - would explain the higher infection rate but generally milder illness. Need to see those results repeated before getting too excited.
My wife and kids are into London tomorrow to see a show. They live for theatre and have been looking forward to this all year. They are all vaxxed and the kids had it in August. We have agonised if it’s the right thing to do and they are going ahead.
As long as your calculations included the risk to any older relatives or friends, crack on. I have a problem with those that say I'm fully vaxxed not considering that they could be the vector to kill a vulnerable friend or relative.
What show are they seeing?
Heathers
We won't be seeing anyone vulnerable until Boxing Day at the earliest and of course we'll all be doing LFT's before.
They've all been in schools and colleges until Friday, my wife too, and my daughter works in a supermarket as well. They've all been at risk of picking up an infection at any moment.
I'm not trying to be blase about this; it is a risk, and we/they know the implications if it goes wrong, that they will mean we'll all be shut down over Christmas and New Year. We will mitigate - they won't use the tube and will walk and I'll probably drive them up to avoid the train as well. Mitigation, not elimination.
Anyway….News from the frontline:
Picked up omicron at a super spreader wedding on the 10th(6 days after my booster). Elderly guests (85 ish) with the booster have caught it, but had few symptoms, I had what felt like a heavy cold and whilst my LF test this morning is still showing a strong line, I now feel fine.
Others who’ve caught it have mostly been ok, from age 26 to 60.
Just returned from a large wholesale food retailer... Lots of items now out of stock, others on heavy restrictions (paracetamol, pet foods and beers) similar situation to the last lockdown.... Looks like people are gearing up for it.
My partner queued for an hour after getting the text, got all the way to a rolled up sleeve and pre jab swab and they said she couldn't have it for another 2 days due to the 3 month restriction.
Bugger.
Partial and ineffectual lockdown from the 27th is my prediction, hospitality closed, shops still opening, limits on number of households mixing. All confused, too little and widely ignored by large sections of the population.
With rumours of a boxing day lockdown aren't people going b to rush out and visit an their relatives & mates in the week before?
Either way hospitality obviously needs financial support now
On way home cycling through London late last week pubs should've been heaving with work dos
Instead it was a ghost town
The wider crisis in government is leading to a paralysis that can't help
I noticed that last night driving through the town centre at 8pm to get my daughter from her supermarket shift. Even last week, they were queuing down the road to go into the bars and Wetherspoons on the one-way system - barely a soul last night.
That's the biggest issue right now, the government is completely paralysed by problems of their own making and we're the ones that are going to pay the price.
Just returned from a large wholesale food retailer… Lots of items now out of stock, others on heavy restrictions (paracetamol, pet foods and beers) similar situation to the last lockdown…. Looks like people are gearing up for it.
Don't get that mentality, supermarkets have NEVER been shut throughout the whole pandemic.
Partial and ineffectual lockdown from the 27th is my prediction, hospitality closed, shops still opening, limits on number of households mixing. All confused, too little and widely ignored by large sections of the population.
Probably about right. Too little, too late. Same old, same old
It looked from the interview on Marr that the Saj, and thus Johnson, knows full well what needs doing but they won’t do it because they won’t upset the swivel-eyed loons on their own backbenches
It’s quite disturbing to think that the most critical question being asked in government during an escalating pandemic is ‘can we get this past Desmond Swayne?’
The tail is well and truly wagging the dog
We've got my family together for the first time in years this Christmas - five households, only two little ones (my two are grown up). We've all (bar the ones with little kids) restricted what we are doing, curtaile events etc, just to keep virus free. Nearly all triple jabbed, and LFT's will be done.
SIL and my sister are still doing all the kiddy clubs/santa visits galore though.
Supposed to be seeing a friend on Xmas Eve, but her adult working daughter has just tested positive, so that's their plans scuppered.
‘can we get this past Desmond Swayne?’
Labour will play the grown up. There’s no chance that any such legislation will fail. As seen last week.
Not seeing in-laws and if the rules change, we won’t see any family. Son2 is tested and back from Spain today. Into isolation pending a pcr result.
Saw some good news yesterday, a paper from the Diamond lab looking at AZ’s Evusheld suggested a 12x loss of potency. That’s still clinically useable territory and means that prophylaxis will likely still be possible. That’s important because the other two mAb cocktails for post-exposure prophylaxis are unlikely to offer protection. AZ is for pre-exposure in at risk immunocompromised. It’s not a substitute for the vaccine.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.15.472828v1
Either way hospitality obviously needs financial support now
This. And, yes “we” can afford it. Pushing any official restriction into January doesn’t mean no impact on pubs etc right now. It’s like the first wave all over again… keep the pubs etc open but starve them of customers. We don’t need to learn new lessons… we know how this works… support the sectors hit hardest, and announce it in good time to avoid the economic damage of businesses having to act on the assumption that help will not be forthcoming.
Labour will play the grown up. There’s no chance that any such legislation will fail. As seen last week.
that's not the issue for Johnson. "Put on Notice" "Last Chance" statements from his mps is not so subtle coded language for if you bring in further restrictions we will get rid of you.
Labour will play the grown up. There’s no chance that any such legislation will fail. As seen last week.
Getting the legislation passed isn’t the hard bit, because, as you say, most Labour MPs will do what is required (as they have our interests at heart, rather than “playing politics”, despite the repeated claims of our PM). But then what? If it comes with 100+ Conservative MPs voting against government policy, and more ministers resigning over it, the hole under Johnson gets bigger and bigger… at what point does his self interest kick in, and the bodies allowed to “pile high” to save his position with his MPs?
Just had to ask my 17 yr old not to go into London tomorrow (2hrs each way on train) with a group of 8 to Winter Wonderland in Hyde park. She is devastated, I feel terrible. Tell me I’m not overreacting – we have 3 elderly (70s and 80s) relatives coming next week for Xmas…
You've stopped her doing something so you feel safer doing something else. Clearly to you seeing the older relatives is more important but you could have let her go and cancelled their visit.
She doesn’t need to go into London to catch it….she just needs to see her friends. It’s going crazy in the SE.
My wife has had her booster, so have I. My in-laws are hesitating, as are some of my colleagues. Primary reason seems to be that they had adverse reactions to previous rounds and are therefore worried they will be sick for Christmas (yeah, I know).
I've noticed this too and it's not that surprising when a lot have also had covid with minor symptoms. If the jab makes you feel as bad as actually getting the disease then I can see why people would be reluctant. I've avoided covid so far and had no reaction to the first 2 jabs, but the swelling in my arm has only just gone down after a booster on Tuesday.
the opposite IME - almost everyone I know has voluntarily scaled back or cancelled pre-chrimbo engagements and/or are LFTing beforehand to try to avoid having COVID over Xmas.aren’t people going b to rush out and visit an their relatives & mates in the week before?
Labour will play the grown up. There’s no chance that any such legislation will fail. As seen last week.
For Johnson to rely on Labour a second time to deal with a huge Tory rebellion would be an absolute disaster for him.
The hard right are mounting a slow creeping coup against him, he simply cannot afford to give them more ammunition.
If covid restrictions prove to ultimately be Johnson's downfall you can imagine what the attitude of whoever replaces him will be.
And this will have a knock-on effect all manner of other things such as tackling climate change and government intervention/spending.
The UK might need further restrictions but paradoxically Johnson introducing them might well result in the UK having less.
Booster on Tuesday morning has wiped me out since Wednesday, this one more fatigue; brain fog; headache that comes and goes. Sleeping heavily overnight, this morning being the worst so far, waking up at the ridiculous time of 1015... I wake at 0515/0545 on work days and normally I'm up by 0730 on days off work! Aches and pains in muscles and joints too, but they're not as severe as my first or second jab.
I was rubbish after both AZ shots🥵, but completely forgot I’d had the Pfizer booster ‘till my youngest hit me in the arm [ aren’t families great ]. 😆
When it comes to elderly family this Christmas, knowing they are boosted is a blessed relief, to be honest. If they were holding out on getting boosted to “not feel ill at Xmas”, I think with the evidence on waining I’d be avoiding them till they had been boosted, even if we didn’t have Omnicron in the mix and just had the Delta wave growing.
I've had a booster (Pfzier) on Thursday this week - no issues at all. 1st AZ shot put me in bed for 24hrs.
The UK might need further restrictions but paradoxically Johnson introducing them might well result in the UK having less.
This is very true. In the gap between Johnson stepping down and his party losing their majority at the next election (I’m finally starting to believe this is a likely future) we could see a complete lack of willingness from the new PM to act on anything. Of course, if Johnson feels he can’t act either, then we are no better off if he stays. We could be looking at a no win situation here… which may keep Johnson in power for another year or so, but either way is bad for the UK. But then, I can’t see any way a Johnson premiership was ever going to be anything other than damaging for governance of the UK, given his route to power.
A reminder what MPs who vote in favour of public health measures during this pandemic are up against…
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1472483545704800257?s=21
It’s an insane situation to be in that essential decisions on dealing with a pandemic are being dictated by about 100 absolute headbangers who’s views are representative of only a minuscule amount of (equally deranged) people in the population.
But Johnson is now so weak - the only way he’s going to get any Covid restrictions through now relies on the Labour Party - that he has to defer to these absolute fruit loops
It’s truly terrifying! I have zero confidence in the government even proposing further restrictions when needed, never mind implementing them
...about 100 absolute headbangers who’s views are representative of only a minuscule amount of (equally deranged) people in the population.
Unfortunately those who are opposed to further restrictions do not represent a minuscule amount of the population. Opinion polls suggest that about a third of the population are opposed to further restrictions/lockdowns.
And whilst for simplicity I might refer to the hard right of the Tory Party as pandemic/climate change deniers they are not deranged headbangers who deny the science. It's just that they couldn't give a toss of the consequences....profit, money, wealth, is all that matters to them.
reminder what MPs who vote in favour of public health measures during this pandemic are up against…
A man, aged in his 70s, has been arrested on suspicion of encouragement to commit arson. He remains in police custody.
The arrest relates to a video posted online in which people were encouraged to burn down MPs’ offices. https://t.co/vKPMUeUm2e
— Metropolitan Police (@metpoliceuk) December 19, 2021
The man in question appears to be Piers Corbyn
... they are not deranged headbangers who deny the science. It’s just that they couldn’t give a toss of the consequences….profit, money, wealth, is all that matters to them.
Partially true. What I've come to learn in more recent years is that many people simply don't think too far outside of what is in front of them, and there's clearly some evolutionary benefit to such thinking because its far from uncommon. In many cases people don't understand the consequences because they're complex and require a certain level of willingness and effort to mentally explore, and the interest in doing so just isn't there.
Thanks. I didn’t have much reaction to AZ X2 or Pfizer booster, but the MIL is hanging out for Moderna having reacted to Pfizer previously… I don’t think Moderna is available locally yet.
FWIW the wife and I had 2x Pfizer as our initial jabs, no issues with 1st ones but I had quite bad fatigue after the 2nd. We both had the Moderna booster last week and both of us had bad flu-like symptoms (chills, fevers, joint aches) within 24h, though they went within a couple of days. So probably no real point waiting for the Moderna jab if she's worried about side effects!
All confused, too little and widely ignored by large sections of the population.
But followed by enough people with brains and a sense of responsibility that it will just about work.
I'd like to see the grown up politicians take on the headbangers publicly and expose them for the self centred arseholes that they are. Party and self interest before public health interest needs to be the comparison made.
Boris is toast whatever, he doesn't need to pander to them any more.
Anyone got any idea where to get lateral flow tests in central Derbyshire? Tried multiple pharmacies in Chesterfield, Matlock, & Bakewell everyone says their supplies are erratic but no-one seems to have had any for the last four days; the school is out; & the website consistently says that there are no delivery slots. Tried several pick up sights listed on the NHS website without luck (two don't exist anymore but no-one has updated the local information on the website in the last six months
Isn't it wonderful when someone announces a new set of rules without any idea of the logistical implications.
An anecdote about the effectiveness of using lateral flow tests as a green light to mix: 5 people, that I know of, have tested positive following a private Christmas party of about 80 people. Everyone was told to do an LFT prior to the event and all the staff were wearing masks. I had a negative LFT every morning for 4 days following the party, then tested positive via PCR on the 4th day (hours after my last negative LFT). The day after the PCR test I'm still symptom free. I only had the PCR test as impatientcow woke up with a cough and had a positive LFT.
Looks pretty clear but can you say for certain you haven't had asymptomatic covid in the past 90 days or so, and aren't getting a residual?
impatientcow
Suddenly referring to my other half as MrsMC doesn't seem so bad.
Looks pretty clear but can you say for certain you haven’t had asymptomatic covid in the past 90 days or so, and aren’t getting a residual?
I don’t think anyone could claim that with absolute certainty, but I’ve been doing twice weekly LFTs for that period.
Suddenly referring to my other half as MrsMC doesn’t seem so bad.
Mine's 'thecurrentmrsv'. Keeps her on her toes......
Unfortunately those who are opposed to further restrictions do not represent a minuscule amount of the population. Opinion polls suggest that about a third of the population are opposed to further restrictions/lockdowns.
They’re not using language comparing any further restrictions to totalitarian or fascist regimes and saying it’s ‘worse than Nazi Germany’ though
The headbangers in the Tory party are
Only the truly hatstand think that…
Imagine finding yourself on the same happy bus as Piers Corbyn? Without a face mask, obvs
comparing any further restrictions to totalitarian or fascist regimes and saying it’s ‘worse than Nazi Germany’ though
I doubt there is 100 Tory MPs doing that.
“Hiding”… you can do one, quite frankly.
FFS I was voicing my opinion of what I think the general mood is towards omicron rather than seeking to justify it. But to be honest, most of the people I know who are very careful about covid are that way because they have a good reason to fear catching it. They're not doing it to save the NHS or support the care sector however much we like to think that.
