Yeah I can’t see the current measures making a massive difference. Perhaps just a holding step whilst they wait for better data, and then after Christmas they can tighten or relax restrictions accordingly
Expect more measures soon, probably between xmas and new year… or in Jan. But don’t wait, plan to reduce your contacts from now.
If cases are doubling every two days then waiting 2 weeks before further restrictions seems utterly pointless and far, far too late.
That gives daily cases by 27th Dec-ish of 25.6m taking yesterday's estimate of 200000 daily cases. 26ish million daily cases. So basically by the 30 Dec the whole country will be isolating. Every man woman and child will have had Covid by the end of the year latest.
Even assuming the brakes go on a bit with Plan B measures and an amount of people being boosted and boosting making a difference even half that number is still fantastical. Even a quarter and we are into the realms of 50% of the population isolating by the New Year.
Which takes me back to the point about the numbers seeming either truly and utterly terrifying in which case we should lock down fully now or massively overstated...
Not seen the briefing, but Whitty's statements look reasonable to me. One doesn't know because the data on morbidity is too early, but some action is reasonable to limit contagion. For me that's deciding what limited contacts will be reasonable. In a week there will be much more robust data on morbidity (hospitalisations). Europe has the luxury of watching the U.K., but I can imagine omicron will be spreading there very soon (as did D614G, Alpha, Delta).
There is no evidence that we are all going to die (imminently - there's plenty of evidence that we are all going to die).
Peak death in the U.K. is second week of January due to Christmas mixing and spread of respiratory infection. I can't see why 2022 will be different to 2021 (and 2019, 2018...not 2020)
We should be in full lockdown like March ’20
And the only reasons we aren't is that the government's cack-handed approach to the whole pandemic has squandered public trust to the extent that they know it would be ignored. Aided by people like you, who have undermined the scientific evidence because you know better.
And the only reasons we aren’t is that the government’s cack-handed approach to the whole pandemic has squandered public trust to the extent that they know it would be ignored. Aided by people like you, who have undermined the scientific evidence because you know better
I have abided by every lockdown measure, worn a mask, limited my contacts throughout, do an LFT pretty much daily and always before going to work (have worked the vast majority of the time at home since March '20 anyway) or out anywhere crowded (and I have gone out only 2 or 3 times to restaurants and twice to the pub) and am not yet eligible for a booster anyway (last of my two jabs < than 3 months ago) so I have done nothing intentional nor reckless to aid the spread I am afraid.
Well dannybgoode let's hoped everyone else will behave as sensibly.
The lack of restrictions now has a lot more to do with the Brexit/erg/crg/1922 mob and Johnson's ingrained unwillingness to make a decision until the options are reduced to one.
Ironic that all these tough libertarians won't take their medicine or wear masks - must mess with their razor rash or something. 🤷
Got to make a decision regarding where I go for Christmas over the next day or two, and pretty much decided to call it off and spend it by myself.
Looking at the way the disease is spreading it's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to come into contact with numerous infected people at work over the next ten days, and I'm not prepared to take the chance of passing it onto my mum or dad.
Apologies if you're working with me between now and Christmas because I'm going to be a miserable **** for the whole time.
So with the numbers suggested above, won't we run out of PCR lab testing capacity pretty quickly? So we won't know where we are with cases (although they're an underestimate anyway).
J B-M has just posted some of his analysis...
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1471193909007106050?s=21
Looking at the way the disease is spreading it’s pretty much guaranteed that I’m going to come into contact with numerous infected people at work over the next ten days, and I’m not prepared to take the chance of passing it onto my mum or dad.
We were chatting about this at work today. The conclusion we came to was that it's worth the £140 for a PCR test to be able to go and see them
If cases are doubling every two days then waiting 2 weeks before further restrictions seems utterly pointless and far, far too late.
Are you surprised? I'm not. This all has massive echoes of the beginning in 2020, the public and business will lead the way with the govt following a few weeks later. The problem is that lots of the public are fed up of it all and weary, businesses have absolutely no capacity left (financially or physically) to weather the storm and the NHS is pretty much at breaking point already. We are nowhere near as capable of the levels of resilience we have managed previously from any perspective. Everything is being betted on the vaccine boosters saving the day by the govt and that worries the hell out of me. We need to be doing a lot more now to buy us some space if things do go tits up further, far better to be cautious unnecessarily than have to react in a panic. That's a lesson from the Y2K issue, all the hard work beforehand meant the issue didn't materialise but the public took it as that there wasn't an issue in the first place. It's the same now with everyone presuming the vaccine boosters will save us and it will be a non-event. That may well happen but it's far better to prepare for the worst beforehand, sadly we have missed that opportunity. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail etc.
Got to make a decision regarding where I go for Christmas over the next day or two, and pretty much decided to call it off and spend it by myself.
I'm seriously thinking of doing the same. I was only ever going to spend the day with my parents anyway and I do have a few days clear beforehand where I'm not working so can limit contacts in that time. Add in it's my birthday a few days later and then New Year it's looking like a really crap one for me, again. I have booked the FOD uplift on the 31st with a few friends but I very much doubt that will happen, either by our own choice or due to cancellations/restrictions. I don't know why I don't just cancel it now but I need some glimmer of hope to get me through!
We were chatting about this at work today. The conclusion we came was that it’s worth the £140 for a PCR test to be able to go and see them
Isn't a PCR free unless you're going abroad?
*I just looked it up, it's £59 for next day or £99 for next day results
Isn’t a PCR free unless you’re going abroad?
Only if you have symptoms. And, currently, none available for obvious reasons
Personally I don't think it's a good time to have a free PCR unless it's genuinely indicated, the system is really struggling as it is
I presume though that the paid PCR tests go through the same system of labs etc so would still impact the same on the resource pool
Sorry TiRed can you clarify this:
I can’t see why 2022 will be different to 2021 (and 2019, 2018…not 2020)
Are you saying hospitalisations and deaths will be akin to 2021? And are you also saying this is similar to 2018 & 2019 winter periods which were without C19 e.g. a "normal" flu season, but you don't expect those numbers to be as high as 2020 e.g new Coronavirus intro no vaccines?
Thanks
I presume though that the paid PCR tests go through the same system of labs etc so would still impact the same on the resource pool
There's plenty of paid for PCRs available, no free ones
We may not know the precise potency and severity of Omicron, but there are things we do know.
1) We know that it is much more transmissible than Delta. This means much higher numbers of cases, day-on-day. We are already seeing that arrive.
2) We know that the NHS is already close to capacity because Delta has been allowed to grumble on at 30-40K a day for months - various non-urgent work was being stopped even before Omicron emerged. Hospitalisations are already expected to rise purely as a result of delta infections, they are rising sharply in London right now.
3) We know that if hospitalisations rise above a certain threshold, this affects outcomes, from Covid and everything else, as resources are spread too thinly and care becomes sub-optimal. Put in short, more people die.
So anyone saying, it's probably mild, stop over-reacting, is essentially gambling that, for every doubling of Omicron cases (currently doubling time in some regions is well under 2 days), there already exists a corresponding halving of the risk of hospitalisation for this variant. It may well be milder, but it may need to be vastly milder to keep hospitalisations at a manageable level, and there is no obvious biological reason why we should be that lucky.
By the time we know the severity of Omicron, we may well already have experienced several doublings in terms of case numbers.
It's arguable, given the political weakness of the PM with the hard-of-thinking in his own party, and his own sterling work undermining public health messages, the only lever we realistically have left to prevent deaths is the booster programme.
So anyone saying, it’s probably mild, stop over-reacting, is essentially gambling that, for every doubling of Omicron cases (currently doubling time in some regions is well under 2 days), there already exists a corresponding halving of the risk of hospitalisation for this variant. It may well be milder, but it may need to be vastly milder to keep hospitalisations at a manageable level, and there is no obvious biological reason why we should be that lucky.
By the time we know the severity of Omicron, we may well already have experienced several doublings in terms of case numbers.
So let's lockdown fully now then surely? The booster program is way too late to prevent hospitalisation and death anyway (if indeed it does anyway) - 25m or so still to boost with a 7-10 day wait until it is effective by which time we're already going to be in the millions and millions of cases if the numbers are to be believed.
Lockdown now to give those who want the booster the chance to get it and for it to have time to be effective. Otherwise it's just pissing in the wind.
People keep telling me we can't wait for the data as the situation is far too serious and yet the govt is doing **** all to seriously prevent Omicron spreading. So again, either it is really really bad and we *must* bring in much stricter measures now or the numbers are overstated. It cannot be both really horrible but with no need to do anything meaningful.
you appear to have a good grasp of our situation. sadly.
still. mild for the time of year, eh? (:
Only if you have symptoms. And, currently, none available for obvious reasons
PCR tests are available.
People keep telling me we can’t wait for the data as the situation is far too serious and yet the govt is doing **** all to seriously prevent Omicron spreading. So again, either it is really really bad and we *must* bring in much stricter measures now or the numbers are overstated. It cannot be both really horrible but with no need to do anything meaningful.
I get what you're saying but I think it's more a political thing than scientific, whilst what you've wrote makes sense, the fact that Johnson's political issues are at a critical difficulty right now removes the logical link between the potential seriousness of Omicron and locking down in time.
I don’t agree with what Danny’s opinion on boosters, but I kind of agree with his last post
These half assed measures will do f all to stop the spread. Either we need to accept huge numbers, or lock down now
Not wait 3 weeks until we are at a million cases a day
People keep telling me we can’t wait for the data as the situation is far too serious and yet the govt is doing **** all to seriously prevent Omicron spreading. So again, either it is really really bad and we *must* bring in much stricter measures now or the numbers are overstated. It cannot be both really horrible but with no need to do anything meaningful.
It can be horrible and we do nothing meaningful, that certainly is a possibility and would be a political choice.
Are you saying …
I think he was saying the time of the year when the peak deaths occur will be when it normally is… Jan after mixing… when the NHS is always normally stretched. The absolute numbers could still be much higher than the years before the pandemic though. Having a Spring peak like we had in 2020 isn’t normal.
2021 vs 2022? My view is that we have all the tools and knowledge we need to prevent a wave like the one we had at the beginning of this year. A failure to prevent deaths on anything like that scale again this coming January will be a complete failure of governance.
Lockdown is politically unacceptable generally in the Conservative party (and the population), particularly in the run-up to Christmas.
The reasons for this are various - genuine restriction fatigue among the population for the second Christmas in a row, (for which I have sympathy, as I am ****ed off with it as well), the way that any kind of restriction was abandoned with a one-way flourish in July (FREEDOM DAY!), plus incessant propagandising ever since about how even Delta is trivial. In addition, there probably isn't the cash for the kind of economic support which would be required (the real reason so many Conservatives are opposed to more stringent measures).
It may well happen in January anyway.
The government has no room for manoeuvre except to throw the kitchen sink at the booster programme and hope that it gives the NHS some breathing space later on.
We're in a situation that I certainly didn't foresee earlier in the year, although I suspected that winter would be a bit bumpy and was calling for the booster programme to be approached more urgently, and earlier.
None of this is particularly aimed at you, more at people who are clinging on to the 'it's mild' liferaft rather than turn around and look at what's looming up behind them. And I can't say I condemn most of them either particularly - we've all had enough.
These half assed measures will do f all to stop the spread. Either we need to accept huge numbers, or lock down now
Agreed. But we're not locking down now.
Didn't want to drag myself into this thread again but here I am.
I think if Omicron has taught us anything is that this is how it will be. No more 'it will be better next year' or 'you'll have a better summer than last'. We will just be waiting until the next variant to flip it all upside down again.
I just can't be doing with it any longer, I'm already utterly fed up with it. The timing couln't be worse, with my mum having just into full time care and no doubt I wont get to see her again any time soon in a different country. I just don't see any positive here, given that graph above based on cases in London. I predict a full January lockdown. The economy is already at breaking point, so this will kill it off I'd think.
Life can just get in the sea.
Won’t be much point locking down in january. We will all have had it, recovered or died.
We will all have had it, recovered or died
TBF, that process takes longer than your timescale (unless we all get it this week). Would certainly be easier on the NHS if we just get to flip a coin for an instant outcome.
you’ll have a better summer than last
We've had good Summers even during the pandemic and I expect next Summer to be good too.
My Summer 2021 was influenced more by climatic change than Covid. I could have done exactly what I'd intended but for catastrophic floods that cut off my way forward and diverted me south.
2020 I visited family in Germany and Poland, next Summer I doubt Covid will stop me touring the Baltic.
TBF, that process takes longer than your timescale (unless we all get it this week)
back of fag packet calcs using the 200,000 cases on Monday 13th as a starting point and 2 day doubling, puts us around 60million cumulative cases somewhere between day 14 & 15…
where’s that coin?
Are you saying hospitalisations and deaths will be akin to 2021?
Deaths peaked in 2021 in January due to measures (lockdown) to prevent further contagion. Either omicron will prove to be benign and/or controlled by boosters, or further control measures (i.e., contact restriction) will be needed to prevent deaths. Either way, we'll see the normal excess deaths due to Christmas spreading. That will keep peak death in January - rather than the exceptional April 2020. It will probably be some mix of the two.
Peak death in the U.K. is second week of January due to Christmas mixing and spread of respiratory infection.
Which is where Boris has painted himself into a corner.
The greatest risk to public health is families mixing on Christmas day. Many people will travel across the country to visit relatives and there will be lots of inter generational mixing.
We saw what happened last January after the Xmas mixing and the same scenario is about to happen again.
If projections are really as bleak as suggested, then they should be tougher now, but know there is little public support for further restrictions across the festive period.
Instead it’s tinkering around the edges and picking on easy targets.
Is it just me that has a problem with the maths? It's a bit like having an infinite number of ancestors, at some point you'll have to accept there has been a bit of inbreeding. You can't just keep doubling every day without counting somebody twice. Yes, a lot of people will get it very quickly but the double-counted don't pass it on to twice as many people.
The incompetence here is not the not locking down (which becomes increasingly unsustainable with every subsequent lockdown), but the contingencies that haven't been put in place because, and I paraphrase Boris "an unreversable easing of restrictions". It hasn't surprised anyone that there is a new variant except the man who had the power to put in place a framework that would have been better value than chasing his tail (pun possibly intended)
Yeah, it can't keep doubling and doubling ad infinitum, but it has a large pool of people who are at least susceptible to catching it and passing it on right now, vaccination and even recent prior infection with delta will only impede this slightly, and also an excellent environment for spread as we shop, dine and drink indoors towards Christmas. This is the time of year when we mix not only with our normal groups, but also with older or younger people we wouldn't normally see. The peak will arrive at some point, its exact shape, size and consequences in terms of hospitalisation and death are not fully apparent yet.
I still can't get my head around the mixed messaging from tonight's presser
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1471252625534472192?t=_V1SRi9j36d4Sd02eSt6jQ&s=19
Didn’t they run a “Boris battles the Boffins” headline this time last year?
The greatest risk to public health is families mixing on Christmas day. Many people will travel across the country to visit relatives and there will be lots of inter generational mixing.
This is true every year, which makes the emergence of SARS-COV2 in 2020 so exceptional. We accept higher mixing for a spike in deaths every year. But like this year, intervention may be required. Boosters are one of those, treatments are another. Mixing is the third. A year ago we only had the last option.
Fingers crossed for all those poor souls that will battle for their lives in the coming 2 months.
Anyone know what the current capacity is in the UKs hospitals?
It's a moveable feast. Depends what else you are prepared not to do.
At the peak in January, we briefly had just under 40,000 covid patients in hospital before the effects of the new year lockdown kicked in. Currently it's just over 7,000, for now.
Strategies for management of covid patients have improved, shortening the average hospital stay, which helps keep the total down a bit, and if we have some of the newer treatments coming on line, we might be able to prevent as many people having to come in, but I don't know what the schedule is for their introduction.
There was an article in Metro “Five signs you may have Omicron”
Fatigue
Night sweats
Scratchy throat
Dry cough
Mild muscle aches
That was mostly my experience with it at the end of November. Tested positive 20th, my wife and daughter tested positive couple days prior.
Makes me wonder if that was it. But it preceded the date the announced new variant by a week or so. Could it have been knocking around before SA alerted it?
Does anyone have the numbers to show what percentage of people in hospital have had the booster?
barrysh1tpeas
Free MemberThere was an article in Metro “Five signs you may have Omicron”
Fatigue
Night sweats
Scratchy throat
Dry cough
Mild muscle achesThat was mostly my experience with it at the end of November. Tested positive 20th, my wife and daughter tested positive couple days prior.
Makes me wonder if that was it. But it preceded the date the announced new variant by a week or so. Could it have been knocking around before SA alerted it?
I had a similar experience, night sweats and headaches were a major feature.
Plus I seemed to catch it really quickly. Picked up my kids from school on Fri afternoon (they were with their Mum all week), my 8 yr old so woke up middle of the night with a high temperature and then by Sat evening I had a slight temp and was rough and tested positive Sun morning. That’s quicker than I though Covid symptoms came on. Could that have been Omicron ?
Tested positive on 22 Nov, so before it appeared to be around in the UK.
Not wait 3 weeks until we are at a million cases a day
On the plus side we'll all have had it by the end of March! Problem solved </gallows humour>
