What was the point of that?!
trying to not look like lazy ****wit before a by election.
Well, that was a little underwhelming of Boris.
He's using war-style slogans and asking people to get tested before doing anything knowing full well there aren't enough tests! That was a load of bollocks designed to appeal to his core ahead of the by-election.
Witty on the other hand is being calm and rational. Wonder how many will remember what he said about there now being two pandemics: Delta and Omicron. We need to keep an eye on both. The next few days will show us how Omicron is doing and is the one to worry about.
With a sub 2 day doubling time, and no decent understanding yet of hospitalisation rates for the new variant… and the better known variant wave still hitting hospitals… we really need regular updates. Weekly isn’t enough. Just don’t listen to them Danny. They are not mandatory. Or do what many people do… laugh at Johnson’s rhetoric and listen to Whitty.
Where is that 14 number for patients in hospital with Covid come from?
Even the latest daily admissions only total is 774 for the UK
7673 patients in hospital and 896 on ventilation beds
Wonder how many will remember what he said about there now being two pandemics: Delta and Omicron.
Yeah, I hadn't quite thought of it that way till he said it.
Where is that 14 number for patients in hospital with Covid come from
14 Omicron cases.
Where is that 14 number for patients in hospital with Covid come from?
14 people with Omicron?
As with last winter… beware ignoring the lag between infection data and hospitalisation data.
It may be that omicron is mild, particularly in vaccinated, but Delta has also been growing in the U.K.
If it does turn out to be mild (either less pokey, or the infected having a better ability to fight it off) I rather expect a colossal wave of infections over the next month or so as large numbers of people decide "ahh **** it, I dont care"
Which is understandable.
14 Omicron cases.
Cheers, that would sort of make sense. I say sort of as you have to ignore Delta and ignore the lag between infection and hospitalization.
Whitty saying to prioritise who you meet up with… very at odds with Johnson’s “answers”.
we really need regular updates
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview
The information is being updated daily. This is what transparency looks like.
Johnson bounced an explicit question to Whitty about “Xmas parties” at number 10 last year, and for the rest of us this year. Whitty very clear… but that really is hiding behind the scientists isn’t it.
This is what transparency looks like.
Yes, I’m supporting the government in keeping us updated in reply to “what’s the point”.
What data are you basing that on that relates to an ageing rather than a young population?
Given that an estimated 20% of the south African population are in a high risk category due to having hiv, I don’t think we can just dismiss the data from there on the assumption that the population are young and healthy
What took you so long???
What the whole 3 weeks that omicron has been around? 😏
“New Year Party” question bounced to Whitty as well… clear again… don’t meet up. Then Johnson comes in and muddies the water with stuff about “we’re not asking people to cancel their parties” and “likely to meet new people you haven’t met before”… only strangers transmit viruses folks.
If it does turn out to be mild (either less pokey, or the infected having a better ability to fight it off) I rather expect a colossal wave of infections over the next month or so as large numbers of people decide “ahh **** it, I dont care”
Could be ****ed if they get the Delta instead though
So its....
Do go to the pub, but dont go to the pub
Do go to Xmas parties, but dont go to Xmas parties
Xmas isnt cancelled, but Xmas is cancelled
.
.
.
Johsnon also slipped in "I always follow the rules"
“New Year Party” question bounced to Whitty as well… clear again… don’t meet up. Then Johnson comes in and muddies the water with stuff about “we’re not asking people to cancel their parties” and “likely to meet new people you haven’t met before”… only strangers transmit viruses folks.
Aye, that was an utter embarrassment.
Can you get normal variant ‘vid, and then in quick turn after recovering contract Omicron (my booster is booked mid Jan)?
I’m in the same boat @Neil_bolton
Well a couple of weeks post infection, recovered. Really not sure when to get booster. But I’m booked for January
Well a couple of weeks post infection, recovered. Really not sure when to get booster. But I’m booked for January
gov say 28 days from +ve test b4 getting booster
Yes, but those numbers have been reasonably static since late July
Which are considerably higher than they were in May as are deaths. Are you suggesting the current figures are acceptable?
I’m glad that so many gullible people are happy to get jabbed at the behest of the clueless to maybe reduce mild flu like symptoms
Mild flu like symptoms for you maybe but a hell of a lot worse for many.
Direct quote from Whitty as published in the Guardian feed on the new conference:
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Whitty says they do not have data on hospitalisation and mortality rates for people with two doses of vacccines, and for people with boosters.
There is some data available, but it is not yet strong enough to make policy recommendations on.
He says people should decide what social contacts matter to them, and cut back on the ones that matter “much less” to them.
---
But they have made policy recommendations haven't they? Including this massive booster campaign which may or may not prove to be necessary.
My biggest worry with this is they're going to lose the public if Omicron turns out not the be 'the biggest threat of the pandemic' at all. Rightly or wrongly when the Donkeytron variant comes along which happens to be a real nasty one people just won't listen any more if they think there was a massive overreaction to Omicron.
OK I appreciate that there are no easy decisions, only very very hard ones but there is a danger of over-egging the pudding even if Omicron does turn out to be serious.
which may or may not prove to be necessary
You can wait for the data, the government does not have that option. If they wait ‘till millions of people are infected at the same time to see what percentage end up in hospital, many people will die unnecessarily, and NHS and care staff will be asking why they were put through dealing with that when it was avoidable.
And, of course, the current delta wave is not an unknown. Dealing with waining helps get that under control as a “bonus” (too easily ignored that we should be boosting now even if Omnicron wasn’t here yet).
@kelvin - which is why I said there are only very hard choices but I do feel they over-egging the messaging. The whole delivery is pushing people to feel there is an element of scaremongering and if things turn out not to be as severe as they are making out then people will simply stop listening which is the worst thing that could happen.
I really don’t care at this point if you think there is “scaremongering”. Every single person I know has either had their booster, or has their appointment booked. This will help get us through this winter.
Your responses are Y2K all over again… “why did they do so much preparation when in the end so little went wrong.” If we end up with a quiet January and February in the hospitals, there may well be noisy people bemoaning that we acted. Let’s just get on with the precautions and ready ourselves for their nonsense next year. Let them whine. They will anyway.
Do you still work in insurance? If yes you should understand what's going on
But will people continue to get their boosters if they feel this was a massive over-reaction? I think many who did this time round perhaps would not if there was another blind panic. And we just don't know yet whether the boosters will get us through winter or whether they are even needed at all.
Do you still work in insurance? If yes you should understand what’s going on
Yes and in insurance sometimes you massively overestimate the risk with unintended consequences down the line.
you also get very risk adverse underwriters who panic at anything and those who take a more reasoned approach to it.
How do you do ever do anything without your time machine? Of course the future is unknown. I have no problem listening to Whitty rather than random insurance guy. I don’t know anyone getting boosted who will be upset by us having a quiet January in the hospitals because Omnicron turned out to not result in many hospitalisations and we pushed Delta cases down. If that happens, great. Bring on the celebrations.
or whether they are even needed at all.
Medical opinion seems very confident that boosters are needed.
I think many who did this time round perhaps would not if there was another blind panic.
What makes you think that the current measures and advice amounts to "blind panic"?
Medical opinion seems very confident that boosters are needed.
That is not what Whitty has just said. He said the data isn't there yet...
They can’t wait for the hospitalisations data when they know it is so transmittable.
It's all down to the appetite for risk. Underwriting a house against a dodgy flood risk assessment doesn't usually kill people.
That is not what Whitty has just said.
Is there more than one professor Whitty?
I'm fairly confident that I heard one of them urge people to get their booster.
What makes you think that the current measures and advice amounts to “blind panic”?
It is not the measures but the messaging. WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE. OMICRON IS THE WORST THING EVER, A MILLION CASES A DAY BY CHRISTMAS etc.
Indeed if it is so bad then the current measures do not go nearly far enough. We should be in full lockdown like March '20 if they are genuinely concerned it is the worst thing the pandemic has yet seen. But, if it turns out to be highly transmissible but mild then people won't believe the hype next time round.
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Is there more than one professor Whitty?
I’m fairly confident that I heard one of them urge people to get their booster.
He did but also said the data wasn't there as to whether it prevented hospitalisations or deaths so it may be entirely unnecessary.
It is not the measures but the messaging. WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE. OMICRON IS THE WORST THING EVER, A MILLION CASES A DAY BY CHRISTMAS etc.
Okay I'm out
A MILLION CASES A DAY BY CHRISTMAS
That’s the only bit I actually heard, and is based on sensible modelling using observable data. The rest of your post is your characterisation of some basic measures that will help us through this pandemic this winter no matter what the morbidity and mortality data for Omnicron ends up looking like.
Looks like bojo hasn’t got the balls to throw the brakes on yet, we’ll have to wait for the hospitals to break before that happens.
With a 2 day doubling time, even if restrictions can cut transmission to zero it’s around 2 weeks for exposure/incubation/illness/serious illness/hospital to filter through. 14 days = 7 doubling times = 128 times worse from the point brakes are put on.
Think it could get very ugly in the next few weeks.
France based its booster timing on data from Israel:
Elle a notamment pris en compte les données en vie réelle israéliennes¹ démontrant que la dose de rappel confère d’excellents niveaux de protection contre l’infection par SARS-CoV-2, y compris chez les personnes âgées de moins de 60 ans.
With a 2 day doubling time, even if restrictions can cut transmission to zero it’s around 2 weeks for exposure/incubation/illness/serious illness/hospital to filter through. 14 days = 7 doubling times = 128 times worse from the point brakes are put on.
Kind of my point. On the one hand they are chucking out some truly massive and scary numbers but on the other not implementing any real countermeasures. If it is as transmissible as they say then Plan B looks to do pretty much nothing to stop the spread.
If it is as truly bad as they are making out then we should be in the most severe state of lockdown yet, but no - wear a mask in shops and work from home (but guidance only). The messaging and measures do not seem to match any.
78,000 new cases today
Project a doubling even every 3 days.
624,000 by xmas eve.
So we will have huge numbers of recently double vaccinated people and boosted oldies by then, but by heck. 1% hospitalisation rate, at a guess, with .
.1% cfr, does that really work out to 600 deaths a day? Oh, i know deaths are not the same as infection rates but occur 10 to 20 after testing positive and declining need medical intervention.
I failed o level mathematics so someone with a grade c or above run those figures. I know its nowhere as simple or linear. And as the numbers rise the amount of people shedding come into contact with people with high levels of immunity, who dont get ill.
78,000 is people ill enough to go get a pcr, what about asymptomatic or CBA people, glad im not steering the ship.
wear a mask in shops and work from home
And get your booster.
Listen to Whitty today, lots of good advice well beyond your legal obligations.
Expect more measures soon, probably between xmas and new year… or in Jan. But don’t wait, plan to reduce your contacts from now.
I’m out now as well. You’re just going to go around in circles.
You complain they aren’t waiting long enough to get data before acting, and now complain they aren’t acting enough while they wait to get data.
