Can somebody qualified please peer review TAFKASTR?
The omicron case fatality rate is not known with any precision because of the lag time between infection and death. We take 28 days as a cut off, but for serious disease, it’s easily possible for a young person with severe disease to exceed that due to an extended period of care. We know the rates for delta and alpha. They’re all about the same. Even a 30% drop suggested so far is really not much on the pharmacology scale.
The biology regarding boosting is now clear. The waning of vaccine immunity has been demonstrated for all vaccines, both in vitro and in the clinic. Increasing antibody titer by additional boosting is no difference to giving another paracetamol because the drug effect has worn off. Analysis will come to bear that shows this. Whether two doses is sufficient at say six months for prevention of hospitalisation (rather than symptoms), isn’t well established. Efficacy against symptoms for two doses is probably less than 25% if you are elderly and were vaccinated in February.
Epidemics accelerate very fast in small closed populations and the tend to slow as they spread. Omicron started in Tshwane university (and perhaps elsewhere) so spread extremely rapidly. A slowing is typical. Look at delta as it spread in Isreal and you’ll see the same. I expect a slowing in the U.K. from the very rapid growth we see at the moment. It might go down to a doubling of every seven days (or not). It has to push delta out of the way, and this may help slow spread.
Can somebody qualified please peer review TAFKASTR?
not hugely qualified, but I dabble: (edit: Bah; I see the unsleeping grown-up got there bfore me 😉 )
There are also reports that it’s waning in SA, literally a few weeks after it’s discovery
That's simple misunderstanding. Rates of infection still rising, though the rate of that rise has somewhat reduced (then again it was incredibly rapid; now just bloody rapid)
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/south-africa/
Course, if it was to disappear quickly we'd just revert to delta (or whatever comes next), and that was already rising ready for Christmas.
It’s not killing anyone though, even if the contagion figures we are fed are true
At least one UK death thus far (scoff if you like but deaths typically lag 2-4wk behind cases for other variants and omicron's not been here very long). Definitely hospitalisations in UK. No idea about other countries and how/when they report deaths - do your own research ®
It’s even been stated that unvaccinated seem to have a surprising amount of antibodies,
citation required. It has been stated that this sort of vague statement in support of dubious claims is probably bullshit. Antibodies to what? Omicron or just COVID? Unvaccinated people tend to get COVID. Those (large number) that are lucky enough to get mild disease will still end up with antibodies, yes.
...hence it’s not hitting anyone hard. Which makes the ‘double jabs are useless/booster is the answer’ propaganda seem even more questionable
Too early to tell about hitting hard for now, esp in UK but if it's, say, 5x less nasty but 10x as infectious, guess what? Only a fool would make a hard prediction right now. Jabs are reported to make less difference to chance of infection; not sure about duration or extent of shedding and how it varies with vaccine status. There is strong evidence with other variants that "adequate vaccination" substantially (maybe about 8x) prevents serious illness. There is farly strong evidence that 3 jabs is what's "adequate" for omicron (or x jabs + y COVID infections)
I’ve come to mountain biking recently and was recommended this forum but am seriously wondering why I bothered.
No-one is forcing you to stay; you could take out a print and digital subscription to enhance your mountain biking activities and stay away from the forum.
Can we change "Karen on Facebook" to "Derek on the bicycle forum"? 🙂
Huge amount of deaths in the US currently, mostly amongst the unvaccinated:
BBC News - Covid-19: US surpasses 800,000 pandemic deaths
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59645307
I have a conspiracy theory: the satan worshipping Democrats have been seeding the internet with misinformation about vaccines being magnetic, full of George Soros microchips, causing 5G and so on, so that they can rid their society of idiot conspiracy theorists
I have a conspiracy theory
Actually the idea that Covid could get rid of people with different “thinking” appears on page 1 of this very thread.
So maybe your on to something there 🤔
Just come in to a message from the Big Boss encouraging staff to volunteer with the vaccination programme with paid special leave to do so.
The fact that car parking duty in January appeals more than what he normally pays me to do is quite telling.....
had my booster yesterday, oooowwww who hit me with the baseball bat 🙁 hoping the calf cramp is unrelated.
Huge amount of deaths in the US currently, mostly amongst the unvaccinated
A lot of causation vs correlation to unpick :education, population health, poverty etc but Trump voting regions have higher antivax rates, higher covid death rates, as do AFD voting regions in Germany & Brexit voting regions in the UK
Workmates mother in law has transitioned from brexiter to antivaxer and she's got worse, now total disregard for covid, thankfully my parents have not made that leap!
Meanwhile, in Germany.....shows that angry and/or vulnerable people can be set off by a lot of things:
BBC News - German raids on Covid extremists over Saxony leader death plot
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59664076
would you be comfortable making the same moral judgement of people who are over weight and have heart disease, smokers with cancer, those who indulge in promiscuous unprotected sex and contract HIV? It’s a genuine question and a valid one if you are making that moral argument.
None of those listed can be caught by the wider community from the sufferers (excepting HIV and that's getting to be under control with the latest drug and vaccine regimes). Try again, not even close to a valid comparison Mr Troll.
House arrest for not taking something you don’t want to take? I’m amazed a bunch of liberals think this is the route we should be taking.
Yes. Because. It's. Not. About. You.
If one won't protect the community one should not be allowed to participate in the community as there is a demonstration of exception and exceptions can have exceptional treatment (all of their own, their choice remember).
"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice" which is oddly apt given the political leanings of the composer(s)
None of those listed can be caught by the wider community from the sufferers (excepting HIV and that’s getting to be under control with the latest drug and vaccine regimes).
It is worth noting that smokers have had their ability to smoke where and when they wanted to reduce the chance of harm to the wider community.
That's a good point dissonance.
No one has even suggested house arrest. Its not stopping you going out, its (potentially) stopping you going into a (very) few places.
One of the Tory nutters last night made an impassioned speech to stop the passing of laws that are not even being proposed. Terrifying failure to grasp reality and to deflect the debate - see the Independents destruction if Desmond Swayne.
Fairly clear from political commentators that a lot of the rebels are actually concerned about the party needing to be a high spend/high tax party in order to pay for restrictions, rather than the restrictions themselves.
Sorry, I'm playing catchup.
we have a man with a vested interest in selling more vaccines saying
...
is it really a stretch to suspect that pharmaceutical companies are not going to cash in on things a bit?
Can you put some meat on this bone? As far as I was aware, the vaccines were being produced not-for-profit because Pandemic.
I never said otherwise. Just that the WHO have not endorsed it yet and that seemed at odds
The problem with this line of thinking is that you're damned either way.
The WHO doesn't (yet) endorse it, "well, they aren't saying we need it!"
The WHO does endorse it, "well, it's been rushed to market, there's no data!"
Pick those cherries, pick them!
only in the case of AZ and J&J... the rest (esp Pfizer) will be reaping huge profits! That said, I think their marketing team can probably put their feet up, I doubt they'll have any problem selling every dose they can possibly manufacture at the moment.As far as I was aware, the vaccines were being produced not-for-profit because Pandemic.
Can you put some meat on this bone? As far as I was aware, the vaccines were being produced not-for-profit because Pandemic.
Only OxAZ offered NFP. As per this link Pfizer are raking it in profit-wise and most of those profits are from the Covid jab. Note OxAZ shares tumbled when they announced they were going NFP. Tells you all you need to know about capitalism and shareholder interest.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/02/business/pfizer-earnings/index.html
Article here highlighting the fact that Pfizer have increased their prices due to demand:
I am new here
Sure you are.
I’ve come to mountain biking recently and was recommended this forum but am seriously wondering why I bothered.
It's clearly evident that you're here for the mountain biking, given your prolific output in the Bike Chat forum since you joined. What bike do you ride?
I could be wrong and I'm wholly behind @poopscoop's earlier post. But the mistake that people creating accounts just to batter contentious discussions on the Chat Forum make time and time and time again is to think that everyone else is daft. You light up like Blackpool Illuminations.
only in the case of AZ and J&J… the rest (esp Pfizer) will be reaping huge profits!
Fair, I was not aware of that. Thank you.
As far as I was aware, the vaccines were being produced not-for-profit because Pandemic
I think only AZ did this - all the others are charging a market rate. Although interestingly, world-beating Global Britain seems to have negotiated to pay a higher price than the rest of the EU.
UK pays £24 for one Moderna dose. EU pays £13
UK pays £15 for one Pfizer dose. EU pays £10.60
AZ in UK is £2.17 per dose. In EU it’s £2.15
I haven't fact-checked all of these, but I did do a quick search and the info I found seemed in the right ball-park.
None of those listed can be caught by the wider community from the sufferers
@sandwich no this is true but then the strategy is not to stop contagion, it’s just to slow it down and that has always been the strategy even if no one is publicly saying it. Eventually everyone is going to catch Covid (or else avoid it through natural immunity); the only vector we’ve ever had had any control over is time and I think people are coming to realise this which is why there is a growing voice questioning further restrictions over movement and freedoms. It’s a tough call to make and I fully sympathise with the difficult position the government are in.
It’s clearly evident that you’re here for the mountain biking, given your prolific output in the Bike Chat forum since you joined. What bike do you ride?
I only just joined! Bikes include Genesis, Condor (I am a roadie convert) and a Pinnacle.
Fair enough. As you were.
the only vector we’ve ever had had any control over is time
- time to develop better treatments
- time to get vaccination levels up
- time to improve vaccinations
- time to ensue our health service isn't overwhelmed
You say you're new, have a read of the thread.
the strategy is not to stop contagion, it’s just to slow it down and that has always been the strategy even if no one is publicly saying it
Its been publicly stated from the beginning for the reasons kelvin has set out above.
@judetheobscure - go and read this and reset your balance of this forum
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/2021-a-year-in-mountains/
Then when you've done that, seek out the 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016... etc variants.
No-one is forcing you to stay; you could take out a print and digital subscription to enhance your mountain biking activities and stay away from the forum.
TBH it’s only the covid and Brexit/politic threads that should have a disclaimer/warning on them,the other threads are less twitchy… 🙂
If you after cat,dating or tubless tyre advice this is probably the best site to look at.
But if you meet a nice bloke whilst riding around and wonder if he’s on here then probably best to keep stumm 🙂
TBH it’s only the covid and Brexit/politic threads that should have a disclaimer/warning on them,the other threads are less twitchy… 🙂
Dont forget about dog owners
If you after cat,dating or tubless tyre advice this is probably the best site to look at.
I know not to date anyone called Louise, or put sudocreme on a cat right here on this very forum. Skills for life.
Note OxAZ shares tumbled when they announced they were going NFP
Not really, but they have had pressure from shareholders for their stance given Pfizer have earned $35bn in revenue. As I stated, Pfizer can charge market rate because of their independent path of development. Other have price discounts baked in because of government investment (at risk). U.K. placed earlier orders, all at risk, so earlier access carried a cost. The actual price is a closely guarded commercial secret.
– time to develop
bettertreatments
FTFY. And I've played my part in this, and continue to do so.
Condor (I am a roadie convert)
Welcome to the forum. I'm a roadie too, who dabbles in single speed off road.
You say you’re new, have a read of the thread.
/page/879/
Roflcopters.
I know not to date anyone called Louise, or put sudocreme on a cat right here on this very forum. Skills for life.
One of my cats had a wound on her head a couple of weeks ago that she was making worse by scratching, I rang the vet for advice and was told to put Sudocrem on it. I almost swallowed my phone.
FTFY. And I’ve played my part in this, and continue to do so.
Get back to work!
[ and thank you... share that thanks with your co-workers please ]
Does anyone have a handle on what's going on in europe? The likes of Austria have just had a large peak, was that Delta or (optimistically) any evidence they had Omicron earlier.... ?
I rang the vet for advice and was told to put Sudocrem on it
Ace! Did he also say to lock it in the bathroom for a week.
Sweden has had, I believe our first case of Omicron.
Statistics osv can be found at FHM's website here: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/
This appears to be up to date and relatively complete. TL;DR is that 80% of the population has had two doses, 21% has had three.
There are lots of stats. R rate is about 1. The last data in one of the reports I saw on there is a little concerning.
Does anyone have a handle on what’s going on in europe? The likes of Austria have just had a large peak, was that Delta or (optimistically) any evidence they had Omicron earlier…. ?
They would have noticed s gene dropout, so probably delta
Hats to know if decrease due to new restrictions, vax passports etc or not
Does anyone have a handle on what’s going on in europe?
Europe has had a wave of delta plus called AY.43. Restrictions have blunted that peak in Germany and Austria, whilst France and Belgium are also coming to peak and Spain is still growing. It's not omicron. Sorry to disappoint.
UK has a growth of AY.4.2 another delta plus. That looks like being replaced by omicron. the rest of Europe will follow with omicron
But if you meet a nice bloke whilst riding around and wonder if he’s on here then probably best to keep stumm
😃
As I stated, Pfizer can charge market rate because of their independent path of development.
I know they can. The question is, morally, should they? They have already cleared their R&D costs and gone on to make made huge profits from the jab. And have now increased their prices due to demand when the cost of manufacturing the vaccine has come down. That is pure profiteering for shareholder gain.
Why not make a bit of profit per jab instead of ramping up the costs to cash in on a peak in demand?
And should the contract be confidential? Again, IMO no. If there is nothing to hide in there and it is tax payers money funding all of this then let us see the details.
Statistics osv can be found at FHM’s website here
They've come some way from pictures of Kelly Brook in the buff...
So in the rush to boost it’s all gone v quiet in terms of 2nd jab for 12-15 yr olds.
So is the risk of serious disease level for double vaccinated 18 yr olds (now able to get boosters) so much higher than single jabbed 14 yr olds (not a complete vaccination according to the manufacturers medicine license)?
Seems unlikely to me.
@pedlad - 12=15 yo's were only scheduled to have one dose. A second dose would be the equivalent of a booster for them I think.
I think it was announced they would have a second dose a few weeks ago before omicron took over the headlines.
It was a purely uk approach to give 1 dose. Everywhere else in Europe 1 dose is not recognised as vaccinated.
Ah OK - thanks for clarifying.
One of my cats had a wound on her head a couple of weeks ago that she was making worse by scratching, I rang the vet for advice and was told to put Sudocrem on it. I almost swallowed my phone.
Send the vet a link to the thread, purr-lease
