Anyone point me towards TiRed's podcast? Thanks
Podcast in here:
And the NHS would have been able to treat far more people in the Autumn just gone if everybody who could have been vaccinated had been.
A key fact that seems to escape the doubters.
Nice somethingion vahaza
Strangely enough, of the many people I know that have a hesitancy to take a jab, not one of them have burdened the NHS in the past 2 years.
I do not find that strange at all. I'd expect a trend with those who personally feel to be at minimal risk of serious outcomes to be more likely to not want the jab. As that group will 'generally' be in good health. You will of course get outliers where people with vulnerabilities choose not to vaccinate but they will surely form a minority to those that do not view infection as significant personal risk.
Be interesting to see some numbers on that, as that's just a big old assumption.
Link to podcast
The Omicron figures make no sense. We're not at 200,000 cases a day of all the variants combined and only 20% of case are suspected to be Omicron.
We're currently on c.50,000 case a day so 10,000 Omicron cases per day. Of course that figure may (will?) increase very quickly but this sloppy use of numbers doesn't help when people think the government is inventing the narrative.
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Addressing MPs, Sajid Javid revealed there may now be as many 200,000 Omicron infections a day. He said around 20% of confirmed cases in England had been identified as the Omicron variant,
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I'll try and dig the article out but my understanding is the Saj meant 200,000 Omicron cases in total and not per day
Or (perhaps one for @TiRed) are they estimating asymptomatic and untested cases in these numbers?
Every medical representative I've seen/read in the media says that for every reported/identified case of the Omicron variant, then there are probably 10x that amount In public circulation. So 20k confirmed (by test) cases would be 200k probable cases in circulation.
It spreads quickly enough that our testing process is approx 10x slower.
My assumption was that Javid had got his numbers wrapped round his head - a pretty key message to get wrong at a time of national crisis, again.
Positive test results will always be lower than number of people catching the virus… unless you are testing every person in the country. This is doubly true while infections are rising fast.
My assumption was that Javid had got his numbers wrapped round his head
A brave assumption given the competency of the current cabinet. And their messaging is far from clear in most aspects of the pandemic to be honest.
No, quite clearly per day. Hansard, yesterday, 4:12pm
Since last week, we have learned two things about this variant. The first is that no variant of covid-19 has spread this fast. There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000. While omicron represents more than 20% of cases in England, we have already seen it rise to over 44% in London, and we expect it to become the dominant covid-19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours.
The UKHSA 200,000 new cases a day figure seems entirely sound to me.
Don‘t forget that England dropped its covid rules an social distancing so the type of activity that was helping to slow infection previously wasn’t in place so as soon as a new boys on the block you were back to ‘Do not pass Go and do not collect £200’.
Covid wasn’t aware of how it was supposed to behave and just carried on doing it’s thang.
OK fair enough. So how many case of Covid per day of all variants then?
Genuinely trying to get my head round the numbers here because so far the figures have been based on confirmed cases but now we seem to be shifting to estimated cases.
Did he say " a day" though?
Or did he mean, we are up around 200,000 total infected, from pcr tests, hospital admissions, ons reports etc
Do you recall 10 pages back i mentioned a group away on a stag weekend, all double jabbed, 7 under 50 plus a 72yr old. 6 of them got covid and unfortunately my friends dad, the 72yr old, died. Got a nice obit. in the Sunday Telegraph, so yep dont get the booster its entirely your own choice.
One of the great things about living in a free country is that you get to choose. Unlike my mate, who now has to live the rest of his life knowing he organised the stag weekend which unfortunately led to the untimely death of his dad.
A brave assumption given the competency of the current cabinet.
When have they displayed competency? And who is Shirley?
Assuming a 2.5 day doubling time, we were expecting 200,000 Omicron cases by the end of this week. Testing suggests doubling time could be less than 2 days… which is why we’re looking at possibly 200,000 already, and half a million any day now. I’ve no idea if that is right, but it’s plausible. Exponential growth still surprises people… get out your chessboards and your grains of rice…
The 200,000/day is a projection from the ONS survey as opposed to the published daily cases, which whilst indicative of change are as a standalone number pretty pointless.
Did he say ” a day” though?
Or did he mean, we are up around 200,000 total infected, from pcr tests, hospital admissions, ons reports etc
His words exactly as spoken are in the Hansard clip a few posts above yours.
Hansard is the verbatim record of Parliament, in case folks unaware (apologies if that's condescending, but we had posters rubbishing Nature as a quack journal in the past, for example)
His words exactly as spoken are in the Hansard clip a few posts above yours
I know what he said. But is what he said what he meant? It would not be the first time a minister has got their figures a bit muddled. Just look at Raab's ramblings this morning.
If it really is 200k per day *estimated* fair enough. However as I say that is shifting how the numbers have been used and reported until now.
ONS have been giving us estimated prevalence across the whole population for a year now, haven’t they? Nothing new.
EDIT: actually, that is different, isn’t it.
It's his first statement; not a question that has blindsided him. It should have been prepared, checked and double checked. Not even the tories are that bad (well, I can think of one that is, whose name escapes me at the moment. Forgive me...............................(it's on these pages somewhere) ...............................forgive me. Erm - Daddy Pig, I think?)
Have my (not particularly intelligent) take on vaccines and all the other shizzle…
I’ve been in the fire service 15 years.
I’ve been to RTC’s where more people than I’d like have ended up dead or injured in ways that have really screwed up their lives.
Some wearing seat belts. Some not.
The ones wearing seatbelts tend to be less badly hurt and much less likely to be dead.
Does the seatbelt mean they will never crash? No.
Have I seen people killed by a seatbelt. Yes.
But just like vaccines and other stuff, it increases their chances of surviving something they don’t have control over. More protection. It’s not 100%, but that doesn’t mean I don’t stick one on.
The numbers of people who are better for wearing one massively eclipse those who aren’t. Doesn’t mean any deaths are less tragic, but it does mean I have to see less of them.
Do I understand all the seat belt testing? Nope. But I also don’t claim to. People much cleverer than me have built on 50 yrs of testing so that when a new car comes out I don’t wait a year to see the data on whether it’s seatbelts work before I use one. Heck I even helped to trial a vaccine so I’ve seen how much goes into the testing process.
Sometimes at jobs the person not wearing one gets thrown around so much they injure the people next to them.
If I don’t wear one, the cops can stop me and fine me actual money I’d rather spend on cakes and booze. Not because we live in a totalitarian state (we don’t, but I can introduce you to people I know who have and trust me, this isn’t one) but because as humans we’ve accepted that some things which protect others and ourselves are so important that we will make them law. No one is making a vaccine a legal requirement. It’s up to you. If you like the freedom of driving, wear one, if you’d rather stay at home all the time, don’t. Simple.
I’ve never looked at people wearing seatbelts and screamed “sheep!!!” I also think if I ended up filling an intensive care bed, or even just an A&E bed for a bit because I hadn’t bothered while someone else had to wait I’d feel a bit of a dick.
It’s a free country even if it doesn’t feel it to lots of people, but actions have consequences. That’s how human existence works. So do me and my daughter a favour, get a vaccine and then maybe life for her can be “normal” again sooner rather than later.
Remember. The greater the vaccine uptake whatever you think of it, the great the chance of a normal Christmas and the pub being open!
but try coming out with that crap in a drinking establishment pretty much anywhere in the country, with maybe the exception of Holmfirth, or similar and see how it ends up.
Just saying
But realistically those scary pubs are the sort of pubs where someone will try and thump you for not being local, not being white, liking the EU, not liking footie, reading, cycling, homosexuality, looking at them funny, not being a coke head, soft hands, being tall, being short and the pub will probably have a flat roof so no real loss not going in there.
New variant.
Worst season for it to appear weather wise.
Everyone running around trying to acheive xmas prefection , because they were robbed of last years.
Add in .-
Football matches , Nativity plays , Xmas shopping ( yeah facemasks help but you hold the handrail on the escalator though ) Pantomimes, Concerts , Pubs and restaurants open , night clubs , schools and unis all open, air travel , gyms ,Church choir services and all that jazz.
Hardly a surprise a more virilant strain has gained a foothold and is now spreading rather quickly. Is there enough SA data for CFR yet? or is it unreliable due to their own overloaded health system.
Honestly - I am not trying to be obtuse. I am interested in getting better on the numbers. Has anyone got a link to the ONS Omicron projections. I am looking at the Covid dashboard by that seems to only provide projections through to 21 June 2021 and therefore is not very helpful
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1100new/prototype/wrapper/index.html#infections
On the bright side: since it seems you only need to be in the same room as someone with Omicron to catch it and the highest prevalence is in London, the anti-maskers in Parliament are going to have a crap Christmas.
The chances of me being seriously ill with it if I do catch it
again
are very very slim.
If I could make this point as politely and respectfully as possible: it's not about you, it's about who you might infect while you've got Covid.
It honestly isn't hard to find
Go to the ONS website, top banner is Coronavirus, and then there's the latest (10th Dec) summary
They say there is insufficient data currently to make estimates on Omicron. ONS do statistics and interpretation of that data - distinct from the UKHSA whose estimate is from modelling.
Oh and binners, your comments may be fine in the cosseted walls of STW, behind a keyboard, with your fellow comrades, but try coming out with that crap in a drinking establishment pretty much anywhere in the country, with maybe the exception of Holmfirth, or similar and see how it ends up.
If by that you mean that your average antimask anti-vaxxer is the type of person who would headbutt anyone who disagrees with them, you're probably right.
I did actually voice these opinions in the pub only last night actually. Nobody headbutted me. To be honest, nothing would make me leave a pub (or any other enclosed public space) faster than someone voicing anti-vax opinions. For obvious reasons.
Anyway, if you'd like a less sweary, contemptuous and insulting summary of how I feel about the whole mask/vaccine thing @FFJA sums it up very eloquently
Incidentally: if you shove Five Live on now they're discussing vaccine passports. They've just played the clip of the half-witted, libertarian, anti-vax bellend Tory MP saying that a 'papers please' society makes us - and I quote him directly... like Nazi Germany
And I'm not allowed to express the opinion that this makes him a massive ****, right? IMHO, obviously.
@theotherjonv - thank you. I did look and searched ONS Covid Dashboard and could only find the link to the one I posted which was out of date. That is very useful.
Schools in two Welsh counties are moving to online learning from this weekend..
[blah blah]Lockdown before or after christmas?
Oh yes Drakeford's got the perfect excuse to play god again - I fully expect Wales to be isolated on the 27th.
Whoa what’ve we done? (Resident of Holmfirth). Am I at the epicentre of something good or bad?
Haha, nothing. Was just thinking of a town that might be stereotypical of the majority of forum dwellers
But realistically those scary pubs are the sort of pubs where someone will try and thump you for not being local, not being white, liking the EU, not liking footie, reading, cycling, homosexuality, looking at them funny, not being a coke head, soft hands, being tall, being short and the pub will probably have a flat roof so no real loss not going in there.
I think you'd be surprised how many people would object to being called a ***t and told they need burying in a hole in the ground, because they don't comply with your views, in most have to face scenarios, not just council estate boozers 😉
Have my (not particularly intelligent) take on vaccines and all the other shizzle…
Doesn't need to be intelligent, needs to be clear and understandable, and your post nailed it.
I think you’d be surprised how many people would object to being called a ***t and told they need burying in a hole in the ground, because they don’t comply with your views
I'm not talking about burying people. In my benevolence I'll be allowing them to live, but simply isolating them from the non-morons for the benefit of wider society
And it's not about differing point of views. I can live with that (I'd hardly be on here otherwise, would I? 😉). Apart from incidences where someones selfish, nonsensical, flat-earther behaviour threatens the health of myself and society in general in what is indeed, lest we forget, an unprecedented crisis.
I'm merely stating that someone saying that their 'rights' (that seemingly being the 'right' to do WTF they like) trump the interests of wider society, and that asking them to temporarily comply with a few minor inconveniences for the benefit of all, so we can get back to normal ASAP, isn't too much to ask
But this makes me worse than Hitler, apparently
I think you’d be surprised how many people would object to being called a ***t and told they need burying in a hole in the ground, because they don’t comply with your views, in most have to face scenarios, not just council estate boozers 😉
It’s all in the delivery 😉 but the anti-mask antivax/ knobber views Venn diagram is fairly well established
Obvious question - Omicron is becoming dominant because it is apparently super spreadable, so how much room is left for something to usurp it? If for instance there was a variant that was less contagious but more severe then AIUI that's unlikely to become dominant. So will Omicron be the one that persists, with reinfections become less severe due to prior exposure?
Anyone know of people in the 20 to 29 yo age group getting boosted as yet or does it not go live till tomorrow for that age group? Want to ensure my son and his partner are jabbed asap.
Thanks guys.👍
ONS data for England shows; 1.6% have COVID, and of those perhaps 20% have omicron, hence if extrapolated to whole of U.K., the number of cases is about 66,000,000 x 0.016 x 0.2 = 211,200. You don't really need a sophisticated model for estimation.
Spread is related to intrinsic transmissibility (viral load for given day) times probability that person can be infected (i.e., vaccinated or not). the first of these was noted for alpha and delta - delta in particular since it spread into a population that was vaccinated. It is possible that the rate of spread of omicron will slow as it has to compete with delta for space. There is evidence of a slowing in SAfrica this week.
There is now data on hospitalisations in SAfrica for the second(beta), third(delta) and fourth(omicron) waves. There is a shift in age downwards, and reduced severity in the elderly, most likely due to vaccination of this age group. SAfrica is not as vaccinated as the U.K. I am still rather optimistic that vaccination and boosters will provide good protection from severe disease.
[tl:dr]
Omicron is becoming dominant because it is apparently super spreadable,
I suspect it is not super spreadable compared to delta, just that more people can catch it as their protection is lowered compared to delta.
ONS data for England shows; 1.6% have COVID, and of those perhaps 20% have omicron, hence if extrapolated to whole of U.K., the number of cases is about 66,000,000 x 0.016 x 0.2 = 211,200. You don’t really need a sophisticated model for estimation.
200,000 current active cases is very different to 200,000 new cases of omicron per day?
The generation time is about 5 days, so yes if you state it is incidence not prevalence. But early in the doubling part of the epidemic that number could be shorter for omicron because people have not yet recovered. I haven't seen the projections, but I can believe the ballpark figure. The actual methodology will factor in the distribution of generation times for the infection (which is not known).
Anyone know of people in the 20 to 29 yo age group getting boosted as yet
They can go to any large walk in centre I believe. Don't know about appointments but I was told anyone over 18 and second jabbed more than 3 months ago is eligible to be boosted by staff at the centre I got done at yesterday.
200,000 current active cases is very different to 200,000 new cases of omicron per day?
Yes, Javid's wording wasn't very clear. Still, 200,000 current active infections of Omicron is bad enough. And the daily number for Delta + Omicron might not be far off that number.
Yes, Javid’s wording wasn’t very clear. Still, 200,000 current active infections of Omicron is bad enough
But with a hospitalisation rate of 0.0045% based on those numbers the severity does seem, at this stage, to be much lower and that is encouraging surely?
But with a hospitalisation rate of 0.0045% based on those numbers the severity does seem, at this stage, to be much lower and that is encouraging surely?
Early days at the moment, but it does appear that this variant is significantly less lethal the others. And if it is then I’m assuming we probably want to to be a transmissible as possible
My one caveat to that would be, if it’s so different than delta, surely the two could coexist, and there is no guarantee that delta cases will go down in due course as omicron takes over?
