Thanks TiRed - amazing as usual :O)
Are there any stats showing the percentage of people in hospital who are double vaccinated?
Seems to me that part of the problem now is complacency. Spent ages on the phone yesterday morning trying to persuade my mum to get her booster against her attitude of "I've had two jabs already, the doctor will call when they're ready", while I look at nearby vaccination centres running well below capacity.
Forgive me if im misreading the data thougb but case rates and hospital admissions peaked in mid July and have been relatively constant since, deaths peaked in early September (lagging admissions) and now also seems to have stabilised. The situation doesn't seem to getting worse at the moment.
We were told unlocking wasn't dependant on case levels months ago but on admissions and deaths. Cases are prevalent amongst the young so these are thankfully much lower.
I know it's not all over and they bungled the vaccination of kids, thrown away a great start to the vaccination program, but it doesn't look quite as apocalyptic as skme posters are suggesting. Compared to the peak in January cases are at about two thirds the level, crucially deaths are way down compared to the peak and less than a quarter of where we were this time last year with control measures in place.
I think if you have kids you're probably seeing it a lot, if you don't it's not so common now and people are off work for a week or two but not getting hospitalised like they were.
I've no time for the givernment, they've made an absolute mess of things which in turn means it's highly unlikely reintroducing measures will work, people won't comply this time. I predicted mask wearing would collapse pretty quickly and was right, the general population has no stomach for it any more.
The situation doesn’t seem to getting worse at the moment.
There's been a definite uptick in infections, hospitalisation and death rates in the last 2-3 weeks. TiRed mentions doubling every 5 weeks?
I agree that the deaths by Covid standards are low and (hate me but its true) similar to a bad flu season. BUT thus is before any flu season properly takes hold, to add to the pressures on an overstretched, exhausted NHS which can't get close to catching up with "regular" treatment demands.
The government needs to act soon or the genie will be properly and disastrously out of the bottle again.
Or we say that a minimum of an extra 1000 deaths a week (50,000+ a year, an additional 10% in annual deaths) is the new acceptable normal.
As irony would have it, I’m missing SPI-M today to present at my first conference paper in two years(not COVID). We have a halter for how comfortable we are close to others. Red, amber green. Might change mine to red! No masks but lots of space. Mask on the train here. I don’t honestly understand the objection.
And I agree that much of the experience is now in those who have children, including my nephews and nieces. The incidence is as high as it has ever been. More infections mean more opportunities for evolution. COVID will become a childhood infection (like RSV) but it will be some time yet. No treatments are approved for children at the moment, only adolescents.
From a work perspective, the use of REGEN-COV In U.K. hospitals based on the RECOVERY RESULTS is remarkable. The drug is not licensed at all in the U.K., but after impressive trial results for those admitted without making antibodies (likely now a relatively small fraction post-vaccination) and you will now be treated. Other antibodies are not yet approved or used in the U.K. they are used widely in the US - up to 200k doses per week!
Jabs were offered to 12-15 year olds at my sons school, he was 15 and we did the paperwork. By the time they showed up he had turned 16 and they wouldn't jab him. So we tried the online booking service, but that wouldn't allow booking saying he's not eligible - call 119 or local surgery if you think this is wrong. Maybe turn up to a walk-in with the prospect of being turned away. Why has it got to be so difficult...? It's the lack of joined up thinking that annoys me, I'm going to say it (a little tongue in cheek) that things were better when Matty was in charge.
According to our world in data cases are at 620/million now vs. 700/million in July and 880/million in January (johnson saving Xmas 🙄)
Fortunately hospitalisations are well down due to vaccination but I don't fancy sharing air with large numbers of people any time soon. YMMV.
There’s been a definite uptick in infections, hospitalisation and death rates in the last 2-3 weeks.
True but that's relative to a low in mid September, cases are still lower than they were in July. I'm not saying the current increase isn't the start of a sustained increase (might well be with other factors coming into play) but the last couple of weeks increase in isolation doesn't show that, when it's increased before we've seen a pretty steady climb, not this time, been spiky but relatively consistent since July.
I predicted mask wearing would collapse pretty quickly and was right, the general population has no stomach for it any more.
I've been at Bramall Lane twice this week with 25k+ footy fans, only a very small handful of those I saw were wearing masks.
I've not worn one since 21st June
I don't know anyone that wears one
Its a mess. There is no strategy or plan. The vaccination programme has been run down and schools are driving this now.
I don't think it will be long before the UK is banned from travelling anywhere.
UK data against Our World in Data European countries excluding UK. We are about 3x the levels of cases elsewhere. Admissions and deaths are within the European prediction interval. There are some notable exceptions - we need to BE. More. Spain. They have seen a remarkable drop off in the delta cases. Even the US cases are back to European norms now.
I’ve been at Bramall Lane twice this week with 25k+ footy fans, only a very small handful of those I saw were wearing masks.
I’ve not worn one since 21st June
I don’t know anyone that wears one
Never sure if crowds at open air events are a risk, or the mingling in pubs and bars before and after.
I'm in the increasing minority who still wear madks in shops. If the staff either wear masks or have screens up to protect themselves while they do a job for me, I'm happy to do my small part by popping a mask on. It's genuinely the least I can do.
TiRed - do you subscribe to the theory we are seeing a drop-off in the protection offered by the early AZ doses, hence the rise?
Is there any update to vaccines to include Delta protection yet?
I like how people boast of not wearing a mask!
I think we are showing ourselves in the UK for the small minded, self-centred people we have become, whatever the Government says and i don't trust a word BoJo and his cronies say now, it is clear that wearing a mask and taking the most basic of precautions can have a positive effect in reducing cases.
To just say "I can't be bothered to wear a mask or sanitize hands", is to say I am not capable of basic civility and respect to my fellow man.
Throughout Brexit (and sorry to use that word) the same mouth-breathers were screaming about sovereignty and taking back control, yet those same people are now the ones that don't even care about the person sat next to them, how are we to rebuild the mess the UK is in with that mentality?
I think there will be general waning of immunity from both AZ and mRNA vaccines (and to some extent infections). However teasing out this from behavioural changes really only comes from looking at comparisons with other countries. I noted that delta took off in Israel at the same rate as elsewhere despite their very high vaccination. Vaccination is not a sterile protector. However the mRNA vaccines are still effective against morbidity from delta, that is clear. I expect AZ will also be conferring protection. But this is not the measles vaccine.
I believe the quote is “Winter’s coming” - but although I’ve never seen Game of Thrones, the sentiment is valid.
Hospitalizations and deaths are still much lower than the exit scenarios produced by the SAGE modelers. Until this changes I don't see any prospect of the government changing tack.
I feel we are building in huge problems to the NHS. It was cracking before COVID, running it just under breaking strain for 2 years will have a long term cost in staff retention.
Is there any update to vaccines to include Delta protection yet?
Apparently yes - I'd assume all the major vaccines are looking at updates
@mefty All over the news yesterday that weekly meeting between Government and SAGE have been dropped and they are only meeting once a month now, having met just 3 times since July? SAGE have advised that there seems to be a "lesser demand" from ministers for scientific advice? This is whilst cases have remained at 40,000 a day for last 6 days and 223 died from COVID on Tuesday..
So seemingly the Government isn't listening to what they have to say and advise anyway?
The govt narrative after the parliamentary report into Covid last week was that their biggest failing was "Following the science too much" We really are doomed.
I don’t know anyone that wears one
I do. In indoor public spaces and on public transport. It’s really no big deal or difficulty. Quite used to be one of very few wearing one now. I’m polite enough not to call everyone else sheep though.
Hospitalizations and deaths are still much lower than the exit scenarios produced by the SAGE modelers. Until this changes I don’t see any prospect of the government changing ta
range of predictions is quite wide
loads of variables like how fast immunity from infection/vaccine wanes, weather, flu epidemic, how booster rollout goes, mask wearing adherence, look at the wave the football produced in the summer.
ultimately its still about stopping the NHS being overwhelmed
I know one very large London hospital has reduced urgent cancer ops due to ITU bed occupancy, which is not just due to covid, but wider problems within the NHS
I know of 1 trust that has had 4 young doctor suicides over the summer
daft of Kwarteng to say that there definitely wont be another lockdown, especially after last winters u-turns - though worryingly Tories so idealogically opposed to lockdowns that even if it was necessary they could still not do it
The government really has had enough of experts it seems
Test numbers are through the roof now for us.
The other rotation called for help this morning, instead of 8 operatives and 2 cleaners only one of each turned up. Needless to say the managers all turned up to sit in their Portakabin.
All the students and furlough workers have returned to their old lives so we are stuffed as nobody wants to do the job for the money or work the hours.
To just say “I can’t be bothered to wear a mask or sanitize hands”, is to say I am not capable of basic civility and respect to my fellow man.
More politely put than I've managed recently.
Germany, Holland & Morroco banning flights from UK
half term holidays could be a problem !!
sorry, to clarify Morocco are banning flights from UK, DE & NL
I initially misread the BBC article and thought those three countries were banning UK flights too, rather than just Morocco... I blame Wiggle my ongoing lurgy.
GP suggested a PCR test for my lurgy might be a good idea, but then said it's probably a bit late now, presumeably because initial cold symptoms when I felt properly ill were ten days ago on Monday 11th. Phonecall woke me up and didn't think to say how family here and in North Wales all have same lurgy from me and despite three of us getting negative LFTs, should I get a PCR now anyway.
After all, they say don't test a second time for Covid after a positive result for ~90 days, so given I still feel rough, won't I still test positive if it's Covid rather than a "super cold?"
I do. In indoor public spaces and on public transport. It’s really no big deal or difficulty. Quite used to be one of very few wearing one now. I’m polite enough not to call everyone else sheep though.
I'd agree it's no big deal, just an annoyance, but the case rates for the rest of the UK compared to England seem to suggest it's pointless.
You're assuming lack of mask wearing in England doesn't effect case rates in other UK countries? Also assuming mask wearing hasn't also decreased in those other countries even where mandated (not least because it's not mandated in the UK as a whole)?
Amongst many other reasons, I quite fancied catching a few bugs and colds this year.
It does you good you know
I had the booster jab on Saturday evening. I had reacted strongly to AZ with 3 days then 2 days with flu like symptoms so I was prepared that Pfizer would provoke some kind of response...
What I've had was a day feeling like even walking was an effort and a really painful axilla (armpit) on Sunday. I thought it would go but on Monday the axilla pain was worse and I didn't know where to put my arm. To my surprise I discover that my armpit is pretty swollen and the lymph nodes in the left hand side of my neck are also enlarged. My most comfortable position appears to be cuddling a cushion with that arm in a slightly James Bond villian style.
My immune system seems to go into over drive when it's exposed to these vaccines. GP did say he'd not heard of this response before. Although I'm glad to have been vaccinated it doesn't look good on the sickness record 🙁
To just say “I can’t be bothered to wear a mask or sanitize hands”, is to say I am not capable of basic civility and respect to my fellow man.
I agree on the masks. I'm one of the decreasing number still wearing one in the supermarket. Took a train the other week, about 50%, and a tube, where it is allegedly illegal not to, about 75%.
What I wish to question is the sanitising - I remember last spring when we were sanitising like crazy but not wearing masks, that was the advice from the government.
People on this thread were washing shopping, taking a third glove out on rides to open gates... I remember opening gates with a stick, rubbing down my supermarket trolley and so on.
I got through a work provided sanitiser bottle so quickly I had to pester work for another one. But im now fairly confident the same one has been in my car door pocket for about a year, and I think it only really gets used at the fuel pump to get rid of the diesel smell.
Last weekend I went to Duxford museum. Big hangers so not a lot of mask wearing - 25%? but every ntrance had a hand sanitiser station, and lots of maskless people using them.
Some sort of risk compensation, or a desire to do one thing to show willing, or something else?
where does the science stand on surface to hand transmission these days anyway?
My understanding is that hand sanitizing isn't the largest help in airborne virus transmission. But ultimately it does more good than harm, and is a defence against other bugs going around at a time when the object again should be to not overwhelm the NHS.
There seems to be a number of other nasty bugs going around too, lots of people near me with sore throat and flu type symptoms.
Hand cleaning definitely stops cold and flu transmission from my limited experience. I worked in a mill that was EFSIS compliant for a year (Sainsbury's requirement) and we went mad with hand washing. That was the only winter no one on the team was off with flu and no one had the sniffles.
For a sample size of 25 that's not conclusive but reasonably indicative that it works as an infection control measure.
One would have thought that in the cycling fraternity more than any other, encouraged as it has recently been on the notion of 'marginal gains', any benefit, however small, might be seized upon as an advantage.
As Winston Wolf might say, pretty please, with sugar on top, wear a mask.
doesn’t look good on the sickness record
I hope your employer is understanding. Let’s hope this passes quickly for you. Rest up… feel free to share/moan here in the meantime.
Feeling more pessimistic about our direction going forward than I have for sometime.
Seeing the difference in attitude between here and the people/government of Portugal on ITV News tonight was a real eye opener. For all the wrong reasons.
Bugger.
the trouble with these rules is they (the tory party) have to abide by them too and they just don't want to and besides coronavirus is something that other people catch.
You only had to view the proceedings in parliament this week to see the utter disdain for mask wearing from the Tory benches to realise it’s a jolly game they’re playing at.
GP did say he’d not heard of this response before
Surprised by that. I think it was Anthony Fauci I heard remarked at the pronounced response some people get to these vaccines when they were first being rolled out. He mentioned lymph node swelling as a symptom.
My first az gave me a pretty uncomfortable evening (though stupidly I did go for a decent ride after it 🙄) and the second had me in bed most of the following day and I wasn't 'right' for nigh on a week.
None of this is to belittle your experience sprootlet but I don't think you're that much of an outlier.
You only had to view the proceedings in parliament this week to see the utter disdain for mask wearing from the Tory benches to realise it’s a jolly game they’re playing at.
Javid was asked specifically about this at his press inference(sic) earlier, he just batted it away as if it was an irrelevance.
If the crowded chamber of the House is to endure the heated gases of its bloated members, why shouldn't the rest of us?
I think the government needs to get its tiny little minds round the concept of leading by example when it comes to masks, but that doesn't fit with "open for business" does it?
A mate gets swollen lymph nodes from the flu jab, but didn't get it from his AZ vaccine - not a nice reaction and hope it clears up soon.
On mask wearing - I got a load of abuse for this before but mask wearing is still commonplace in scotland with IME around 90-% complience - this shows that the political leadership can make a huge difference. Its really stark the difference between mask wearing north and south of the border
so when you say no one is wearing masks please say England not UK
So, I'm allowed out of self-isolation tomorrow after my mild bout of the COVID.
Am I now impervious to COVID? If so, for how long? I feel like Weapon X - snickity snick
Just had a call to pick 14 year old daughter up from school - she's had headaches since Tuesday, school queried if it could be related to her Covid jab last Thursday?
Any thoughts on this - worth ringing GP?
