is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates
How do you come to that conclusion?
it’s predominantly their problem
Even those who haven't yet been offered vaccination (teens), or can not yet be vaccinated? There are several non-vaccination preventives and treatments getting though trails now for those who can't be vaccinated, is it not for all of us (not just them) to try and reduce their chance of infection before those are available to them?
That is an interesting and clear thread on Twitter, thank you @scotroutes.
Just let the unvaxxed take on whatever risk it entails, it’s predominantly their problem.
And I remind you that there are a minority for whom vaccination doesn't work, can't have it, has reduced effect or wanes much quicker. Mrs_oab gets round 3 CV19 and winter Flu jabs this Sunday. The initial prevention is less and waning effect is much more rapid. She needs round 4,5,6,7,8 etc every month or so - and even then it is a reduced benefit.
Remember the vulnerable still - and not lump in with the 'oh well, shit happens. back to life' policy that our UK government seem keen to move forward with.
is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates, just on the severity and outcome.
Plenty of evidence that's just not so. In France 80% of positive tests are non-vaccinated and yet only 25% of the population is not "fully vaccinated". The French figures for the numbers of fully vaccinated don't correspond to international numbers for double vaccinated because a positve PCR followed by one vaccination is considered fully vaccinated.
is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates
How do you come to that conclusion?
because substantial proportion of the population is now vaccinated and yet we have 1/60 prevalence.
Of course, mask wearing is down, mixing in schools and public places is up and so on, so it's hard to unpick completely but it certainly isn't a magic bullet for transmission, but a great success for outcomes.
Even those who haven’t yet been offered vaccination (teen), or can not yet be vaccinated?
Those that can't be vaccinated - yes, it's a problem but are vaccines really preventing the transmission to them? Teens - are now being offered the vaccines and/or are not at major risk. IDK the real answer but the balance between society protecting the more vulnerable and society not being able to get on with life to do this is tricky. And i have 2 parents both in that category and neither of them want life to stop because they are restricted.
I still don't get why mask wearing, proven to reduce spread, is not compulsory though.
It's a discussion point. IDK the answers but I'm asking questions.
@ed - that's interesting. In the UK it was reported by ICL as 3x lower likelihood of getting infected when double vaxxed compared to unvaxxed. A difference but not massive.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/
it certainly isn’t a magic bullet for transmission
Very much true, especially with a big enough section of society unvaccinated. Which is why so few countries are acting as if it is. That does not mean the same thing as "vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates", which is simply not true. Despite a more transmittable variant, growth in cases is much slower than it has been in past waves... it's just that we've been doing nothing much beyond vaccinations to try and reduce cases for a long period of time, because we think the NHS can cope, and, well, the chosen priorities of our politicians (furlough and the UC uplift ending, for example, when in other countries support is continuing through the winter) have been accepted by the media and the public who don't seem to look much beyond our own borders at what is possible anymore.
3 x lower strikes me as pretty good. Another figures I've seen on the TV is that it's Pfizer/Moderna that gets the 80% figure but AZ is somewhat lower around 60%. AZ wasn't used much here but widely used in the UK.
It's also not just 'the unvaxed problem'. Those that are ill and can't work cause labour/supply chain issues and of course stretch our already critical NHS.
This is an area where it feels we need more from central government, planning for how the NHS will change as imv it's becoming more and more evident that c-19 will be a considerable burden for many years.
Planning? This is a government that only knows how to break things. 🙄
I suppose they might have plans for the NHS - how to sell the lucrative bits off to their mates.
Well Freester JR tested positive at the weekend.
We had almost daily letters last week from school (England) saying he was likely a 'close contact'. Apparently there were 10 kids off in his class including the lad he sat next to. Flow testing more regularly we decided to take him for a PCR just to be safe even though he had no symptoms whatsoever.
Friday flow test negative. Sat AM PCR got returned positive Sunday (after we had taken him to indoor cricket training and a swimming fund raising event).
Letter from school today to say 9 positive PCRs and 21 positive flow tests awaiting PCR over the weekend. All in time for the half term 'circuit breaker'. Herd immunity targets well on there way to being achieved?
Mrs F and myself go get PCRs immediately yesterday. He's got to come in the car as we can't leave him at home.
Tests returned negative but it's hard not to be in contact with a 10 yr old in the same house.
My employers policy is if the test is clear you will be required back in the office (even though we can work from home our company owner (SME - 70 people) wants people in 80% of time). So I could have caught it by now but they are happy for me to go in. Okaaaaaaaay. For my own piece of mind all I can do is flow test daily for the next few days and keep a close eye for any symptoms. I don't want to give it to any of my colleagues I know a few are planning to get away for a few days over half term. I don't want to mess that up for them. Or transmit an infection that could cause worse to another colleagues home and / or family.
Apologies for the brain dump.
Looking at our world in data it's very clear where our case numbers are going. 😬
Freester, discuss with your line manager and be open with your colleagues would be my advice.
Luckily it is only us proles who catch it.
I tested a couple who had been pinged on Saturday.
They said it was because they were on a plane back from Portugal but a passenger had tested positive. They were sure they were OK because they were "right at the front of the plane in business class".
Bless.
Freester, discuss with your line manager and be open with your colleagues would be my advice.
Ask your colleagues if they want you in the office. If nothing else, it stops you blaming yourself if you go in and inadvertently pass it on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58954707
At current booster rates, they won't get through planned groups until well into January 2022, far from ideal if current cases/hopitalisations/deaths trends continue on an upward trajectory.
So what’s the deal with Valneva? It’s traditional inactivated vaccine but also French... is it politics or science that says Non..
I get the impression the government just wants to stop paying for anything. All the local vaccination sites I worked at are now closed.
Got Covid Done. Apparently.
So what’s the deal with Valneva? It’s traditional inactivated vaccine but also French… is it politics or science that says Non..
Manufactured in Livingston, Scotland - so I'm going with Politics.
Cheers all.
Discussed with my Line Manager (actually the MD). They deferred to HR. Spoke to Finance Director (who line manages H&S officer who wrote Covid risk assessment) they deferred to HR. Spoke to HR (who had nothing to do with the policy or the H&S Covid Risk Assessment) and they were happy to follow Gov guidelines.
Spoke to colleagues I'm in the office with and they are all OK with it. Or if they aren't they aren't telling me.
Flow testing daily and will keep a close eye for any symptoms.
If anyone gets too close or forgets to distance I'll remind them I have a positive case in the household.
Well done Freester for trying to do the right thing. I can't understand your companies attitude - we're nearly at 50,000 cases a day and steeply rising, how much more info do they need?
So given lots of chat about waning immunity, do you reckon they will be looking to roll out the boosters to under 50s?
Don't need a booster if you catch it just now (like me!).
Saves time, hassle and money for the gov't!
Don’t need a booster if you catch it just now
You jest but I’m half of the mindset I’d be better getting it now whilst my immunity is hopefully reasonably high, than in 3 or 4 months when it has started to wane
I see we've identified a new variant sweeping across the land: AY.4.2 accounted for 6% of sequenced samples in the week starting September 27 and is "on an increasing trajectory".
Saves time, hassle and money for the gov’t!
Spoken like a true patriot!
You jest but I’m half of the mindset I’d be better getting it now whilst my immunity is hopefully reasonably high, than in 3 or 4 months when it has started to wane and hospitals get even busier
I've had similar thoughts, but keep avoiding it.
I see we’ve identified a new variant sweeping across the land
Been around since July and not appear to be much more of an issue than the original Delta? Though shows the importance of PCR tests which are sampled for sequencing.
BBC News - Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650
We live in rural Norfolk and the first few waves of COVID seemed to pass us by, small schools, lots of people work outside and low population density i guess helped.
But it is absolutely running rife in schools here now, of my daughters class of 19, 11 have tested positive in last fortnight. It hacks me off that what has happened was a clear path, yet nothing has been done to keep our children safe, and then the families behind them. My daughter, wife and i all had it at the beginning of the month, Thankfully despite being Type 1 diabetic, my daughter seemed to get over it within 3-4 days, but my wife and i are still pretty ill with it.
My wife is a consultant therapy radiographer specialising in breast cancer, which means she has missed the last 3 weeks of seeing patients in person, more than half of her team at work who have school age kids have had it, and they are genuinely on their knees when it comes to staffing levels, staff fatigue and replacing staff, all bursaries for training new staff have gone out of the window, and they cannot recruit for love nor money.
Their CT machines and clinics used to run monday to friday 8-5, now they are running 7 days a week, 12 hours a day, trying to get through a backlog of cancer patients, but the list grows daily and they are even seeing people distrust cancer treatments now due to the anti-vax movement.
A&E departments already have people waiting hours for ambulances, then often being left in ambulances outside of A&E as there is no capacity.
Here, and elsewhere the NHS is on its knees, nurses, doctors and other staff are all getting abuse in person and on social media, they have had people post up anti-vax posters in waiting rooms and staff abused as they walk into work.
Bringing down COVID numbers is simple common sense, proper PPE quality masks, social distancing, stop large capacity events where social distancing can't be controlled and get HEPA and CO2 filters into schools with reintroduction of bubbles, masks and distancing in schools.
Then, fund the NHS properly, and fund training of new staff with a Minister in charge of the NHS that comes from NHS background, not just another chancer that hasn't a clue, with an independent body holding the government to account for every wasted penny of "jobs for the boys" PPE contracts and the like, and for every penny saved to go into the NHS.
Wot scud said.
New variant/mutation (it isn't new) being headlined on BBC/wherever on the same day that 12-15yr olds are being shoved towards having the jab.
Who knew?
Can we put Scud in charge, please?
Vote Scud!
We were going to have friends round this week as we've not seen them in ages and after all.....covid is over. anyhow, back in the real world, of the 5 families 3 tested positive this weekend. nailing it britain, nailing it!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58973185
If usual form is followed I'd take the denial that they've discussed plan B rollout as confirmation it's coming next week
It's not just the NHS almost on it's knees. Many nhs workers are working in private practice (to earn extra money) and there isn't enough staff there too. Was talking to a friend and her colleague all health care in a bad way.
got it, double jabbed, 40, and a few weeks out from a booster (NHS staff)
bit of a cough Friday post riding, thought it was me being a bit coughy post riding, which it may have been as that went by Saturday morning, went to Lincoln to watch the crit, just after the women's get a phone call saying the eldest (Y6) had tested positive on a lateral flow (schools been riddled) other 3 kids negative, don't live with them but had them overnight for 2 nights midweek, went home, took a lateral flow and positive, PCR from Saturday positive, woke up today, and was waxing a chain and noticed I couldn't smell the white spirit, so that's about the only symptom I've had so far, I reckon they could inflict lack of taste/smell to aid weight loss, as suddenly, it becomes pointless, only been a day, I miss smells 😂 - isolating until 23:59 on the 25th
If usual form is followed I’d take the denial that they’ve discussed plan B rollout as confirmation it’s coming next week
Refreshing to see someone on here who sees it coming. It's almost scripted
If not next week, then soon.
Of course, plan B was always plan A in the first place
We were going to have friends round this week as we’ve not seen them in ages and after all…..covid is over. anyhow, back in the real world, of the 5 families 3 tested positive this weekend. nailing it britain, nailing it!
And on the flip side, I know a lot of people.
None of them have it.
Refreshing to see someone on here who sees it coming
Egh? Mate we all saw it coming.... with the exception of a few trolls, everyone here is pretty aligned in their thinking.
Are we not now in a state that we are likely to need a firebreak lockdown to make a meaningful difference. Not that I expect that to happen, but it seems like plan b is pretty half-arsed.
Plan A, "good old British Common sense".
Plan b, "good old British Common sense". Mumble work from home mumble.
Did I miss much from our chumps in charge?
@scud obvious isn't it? Sadly, reality is, dream on, the king of jobs for the boys is in #10.
Plan B was always likely to be needed. Around about October half term you say?
It's deja vu all over again Rodney.
Be interesting how many people react to mask wearing coming back. Sadly a lot of people have got very used to not bothering. It might not be the key factor in restricting the spread but it's a good reminder that uts still circulating.
Parents and my wife have their boosters booked, mine won't be due till Christmas.
It's just seems idiotic to me to have lifted mask mandates in England when it's obvious Covid is still pretty widespread and coming up to winter when flu is likely to hit hard. In my local Tesco I'd say about 5% of people at most still wore masks.
Here's a wee question.
I have had both vaccination shots (last one was in August).
I've currently got COVID and come out of self-isolation at the end of the week - positive PCR last Tuesday).
Do I:
a) need to worry about infecting others? Should I stay away from vulnerable people like my gran for a few extra days or a week more? Looking online it says you can infect people for up to 10 days after symptoms start.
b) not need to worry about catching it again for a while? And if so, what is "a while?"
Watched the interview with Kwasi this morning. It appears that the medical term “watchful waiting” is appropriate here. If you don’t act early then don’t be surprised at the outcome. When doubling is slow (and five weeks is slow) it looks linear. Until it doesn’t.
There has been a big shift in morbidity and mortality, but it he vaccine protection has a half-life of about 1-2 months. So of the 90+ percent protected in March, including myself, expect that to be closer to 50% now. Protection needs continual boosting to top up. This is. It measles. That will come from repeat mild infections eventually.
Now some good news… Merck delivered positive data for their oral drug molnupiravir. It reduced serious disease by 50% which is good for an antiviral. Countries are relying on us having pills in the cupboard to take at first hint of symptoms to free up healthcare. AZ antibody delivered 77% protection for six months if you are at risk and can’t be vaccinated. I think this will be marginally better than the vaccines.
Have been off the sums for a couple of weeks due to work, which has been rather mad. My antibody is now being dosed in 16 countries.
It’s just seems idiotic to me to have lifted mask mandates in England when it’s obvious Covid is still pretty widespread and coming up to winter when flu is likely to hit hard
It’s a weird one - where politics vs reality are playing, I thought it was mad in the u.s.a with the anti mask rhetoric but when it happened in the U.K. I was surprised…
But covids apparently over in the U.K. till the arse drops out the nhs then there will be a mad panic.
That no one could for see….
