If this is a peak in cases, then there are another 10-days for admissions and 21 days for deaths. Hope it makes sense.
Can I just check my understanding?
So, another 10 days till admissions peak, another 21 for deaths to peak?
Sydney update:
145 cases in NSW yesterday - it has been around that on each day over the weekend too - the numbers are rising slowly/steadily, but are not shooting-up (yet?). Two deaths yesterday - including a young lady in her early thirties with no underlying conditions, which has shocked people.
I hate to say it - but it was going to need people to start dying for people to feel compelled to get vaccinated, particularly as the risks of the AZ vaccine (which we can produce domestically) have been very highly/over publicized.
At last, the need to get vaccinated NOW is being pushed front and center of the debate.
We had an "anti-lockdown" demonstration in the city on Saturday.... about 3,500 ****s who's message seems to be that they don't like being in lockdown. Well, no shit - nobody does.
An enraged NSW Police Minister David Elliott branded the participants in the illegal protest "a whole lot of halfwits".
Organisers had applied for a permit to hold the protest, but it was rejected by NSW Police.
Deputy Commissioner Gary Worboys today said police had issued 510 infringement notices in the past 24 hours with "the vast majority of those to people whose behaviour yesterday in and around Sydney could only be described as violent, filthy behaviour, risky behaviour".
about 3,500 **** who’s message seems to be that they don’t like being in lockdown. Well, no shit – nobody does.
It's such a retarded approach. What do they think they're going to achieve ... aside from increasing the spread of the virus and therefore the potential length of the lockdown/s?
Probably one for TiRed to answer:
I heard via a family friend (who is a retired pharmacist) that there is a serious worry that the drop in detected cases could be down to a new variant emerging that evades the current tests. Is that a reasonable assumption as it would be just as dangerous as a new variant that evades the vaccine. We've had plenty of research chucked at further vaccine development and booster jabs but the tests have stayed the same since they were launched and are still not 100% reliable.
If Covid does learn how to become stealthy then it will run rampant again, putting us back to pretty much square one.
a serious worry that the drop in detected cases could be down to a new variant emerging that evades the current tests
You would think the Zoe app data would pick this up, since it tracks symptoms rather than PCR tests. Unless there's a new variant that both evades tests and is symptom-less.
@ reluctanthumper
Going to stick my neck out here and for Lords sake let's not mistake my no doubt faulty logic for fact...
I very, very much doubt it's because of a new variant being able to evade Covid tests.
Variants emerge and become dominant due to being able to exploit their human hosts to a more beneficial degree. To the virus I mean.
Unless testing itself is causing a variant to escape I just can't see it whatsoever. I doubt testing in itself pressures the virus enough to allow it an escape path, for want of a better phrase?
Warning: The above are just my thoughts born out of this thread and various late night documentaries over the years.
It’s such a retarded approach. What do they think they’re going to achieve … aside from increasing the spread of the virus and therefore the potential length of the lockdown/s?
Your use of the word 'think' is touching in a naive sort of way.
So, another 10 days till admissions peak, another 21 for deaths to peak?
Correct. Unless by some magic the lag between cases and admissions and admissions and deaths changes. It didn’t for the nadir.
Today Mrs Baron as had to put up with the "no ones the boss of me" non maskers on the train, the usual "it's too hard to steer" drivers trying to kill her (her bike MUST give way to cars, when said cars are on wrong side of road), being coughed and wheezed all over as she scans patients and, AND being blown up by ****ing nutters.
I so hope it isn't antvax/covid denier related and is just some normal, middle of the road, terrorist loony, or my wafer thin tolerance for basket case bullshiters will, I fear, vanish.
On the flip side... we all clapped for her. Is that not enough?
On the flip side… we all clapped for her. Is that not enough?
Indeed. Who needs a cost of living pay rise when you have been given the clap by Boris?
But getting the clap from Boris might mean getting a much bigger pay off in about 9 months time. He has done it often enough that his lawyers must have a standard proforma to fill out
Wow, even by Stoke standards that's pretty mental.
It was a slow hand clap and he was grinning all over his fat face as he did it, knowing it was meaningless bullshit to keep the proles happy for a bit longer.
Just like everything the ****less, lazy, contemptuous fraud does.
You would think the Zoe app data would pick this up, since it tracks symptoms rather than PCR tests. Unless there’s a new variant that both evades tests and is symptom-less.
Zoe is still going up isn't it, it hasn't seen the drop
So cases continue to drop quickly which on the face of things is really good news. But why? I really want to know, is it reduced testing or do we have a real fall in cases? Is the virus running out of hosts vs vaccine? Even science was predicting a mid-late August peak with 100'000 cases - so what's changed, and will it go back up with the Freedom effect?
Football over, good weather so folks outdoors, running out of hosts hopefully.... Who knows, but I don't think it'll be just one reason (except, well, vaccine!).
Got my 2nd jag today, good to see lots of young folks in the queue. 🙏🏻
Even if there is an artificially reducing effect on numbers due to reduced testing... you'd still expect real cases to be flat by the end of this week, and falling in August. The models showing a continued doubling rate were dumb, and failed to take into account changes in mass mixing events... not least education settings (and travelling to and from education settings). As I keep saying... everyone (except for those working in hospitals dealing with the lag in admissions and discharges, and scientists on top of how this virus is actually spread rather than looking at simple models) will be assuming this is all over next month. We won't really know if that is true 'till the schools, colleges and university have been back at least three weeks. The summer holiday patterns will tell us very little.
There is a precedent for the emergence of a strain which wasn't picked up by tests: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/france-finds-variant-in-brittany-that-evades-standard-tests
Has a delta variant had the same or a similar mutation and then spread successfully? Given PCR tests are a critical part of our epidemic control testing negative would be a definite advantage for a strain of the virus.
How do they know they contained it? [ not suggesting they haven't, just intriged how you go about that when PCR tests aren't useful ]
Interesting story on hospital figures in the Telegraph this morning (paywalled).
The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.
UK is very good for sequencing positive cases to see what variant is behind them - until the recent wave picked up, we were sequencing about half the new positives.
While it's not impossible for variants to evade one or more of the genetic markers that the tests look for, if you had a variant that was missing all three, you'd expect to be seeing a greater-than-expected number of people turning up at hospital with covid symptoms but testing negative, which would trigger some investigation.
The reasons for the current dip in positives (and possibly hospitalisations) could be a combination of people not bothering to self-test, or simply that schools were a far bigger driver of infections than anyone was prepared to admit, and coupled with the good weather, R0 has fallen back. Behavioural changes can also not be what they appear - we've all see where people seem to be mixing more, but we don't see the opposite side of the coin, people who are choosing to mix less at the moment. The lack of a mask mandate and higher prevalence means I'm picking and choosing which shops to visit, and how often, for example, whereas previously I was shopping more.
as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.
Ill people don't know why they're ill 'till they're diagnosed? Doesn't seem crazy to me... but as it's the Telegraph, presumably they think that means something else to the "died with Covid not of Covid" crowd.
Ill people don’t know why they’re ill ’till they’re diagnosed? Doesn’t seem crazy to me… but as it’s the Telegraph, presumably they think that means something else to the “died with Covid not of Covid” crowd.
The article goes on to say:
Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
Agree that is doesn't seem crazy, but the proportions weren't what I would have expected. I had thought that if you ended up in hospital with Covid that you would probably already know that you have it.
a new variant emerging that evades the current tests
No this would not be true. The PCR test measures three genes, not just the spike protein. The UK variant (alpha) was identified by missing the S-gene (S Gene Target Failures or SGTF) and still seeing the (N)ucleocapsid and the Open Reading Frame (ORF) genes. I think it extremely unlikely that a new variant would appear which did not register at least one of those three genes. But I could be wrong, I just think it very unlikely.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Patients admitted to hospital based on symptoms rather than test results shokka! When do you think they might get their first proper COVID test...?
Agree that is doesn’t seem crazy, but the proportions weren’t what I would have expected. I had thought that if you ended up in hospital with Covid that you would probably already know that you have it.
- people who are vaccinated and think that means they can't catch it
- people who have previously had Covid symptoms and think they can't get it again
- symptoms have changed with new variants but advice not updated
- symptoms are different for younger cohorts
And, of course, people might assume they have Covid, but not get a test 'till hospitalised. If I was properly ill at home I wouldn't be going down to the test centre for a PCR test. If things went down hill, and I went to hospital... I wouldn't go and get a test first, I'd expect that to happen there.
Optimism was getting in the way of critical thinking
You are Boris Johnson, and the Telegraph is your past and future employer... and I claim my £5.
😉
There is a lot of optimism about the current peak... Except in a piece in the Spectator of all places. I'm less optimistic personally. The rate of change of new cases is faster than ever seen previously for three lockdowns. That could be because vaccination has put a harder brake on things. And schools. And football. But I am unconvinced.
Except in a piece in the Spectator of all places.
That is a bit of a shokka, appearing where it does!
It's a decent article. I mentioned looking for the ongoing Bolton curve a couple of pages back, with the idea that areas which got Delta first are a decent snapshot for how things play out elsewhere, and am still inwardly expecting that to be roughly the template for what the rest of the country experiences over the next month or so (caveats about differing local vaccination rates, behaviour and relative deprivation, of course).
I'm cynical of the recent case drop, but I hope I'm wrong. My theory focuses on the population not getting PCR tested (and/or performing poor LF tests at home that give negative results) unless they really have to or they feel genuinely unwell, in order to not have summer holidays/nightclubbing etc. plans messed up.
Schools stayed open (as best they could) in Bolton, didn't they? This summer will be all about false hope that it's over... as real cases plateau (agree that the current drop might be a false drop due to testing patterns changing), and then hopefully fall next month... but we will know nothing for sure 'till late September, early October, in England.
This really shows how big the impact of the Euro's was
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1419912847795146760
Hospitalisations dropping steadily up here now.
sigh...... Australia update..... beep beep boop
Things are getting a bit tense here in NSW!
Cases are risking steadily - 177 new cases today, about half of which were in isolation for their entire infections period.
The 11th fatality of the current outbreak has been announced.
8 local government areas are now under "strict" lockdown, with people unable to leave those areas, even for work (unless they are an essential worker).
Building sites can open again (except in those 8 areas) - and tradespeople can go back into peoples homes (under certain conditions). No scientific reason for the reversal of that decision - I think the construction industry are good at "lobbying".
Year 12 (which I think is lower-sixth?) will be returning in 2 weeks - and as such are to be vaccinated (using our scarce pfizer supplies) as a priority
The AZ vaccine can be accessed via walk-in clinics at local pharmacies etc. It will be interesting to see the uptake in this.
In other news...... one of the teachers from my kids childcare centres was designated as a "close contact", sending the whole flippin centre home while things were cleaned and people were tested. Fortunately, the teacher was negative - so a bullet-dodged there from all perspectives. I appreciate that this is the reality of peoples covid experience in the UK - but we haven't experienced this over here until now. Fortunately everyone at work was really accomodating - but lets see what happens the fifth time around!
The good news is that people here finally seem to be realizing that this is our reality until the % vaccinated goes up. Some people are still talking about a stricter lockdown being needed to get the numbers down to zero - but it feels like more are beginning to understand that lockdowns are only going to act to slow the spread until the vaccinated population increases.
@n0b0dy0ftheg0at - I had exactly the same thought. Combined with a sense of ‘does it really matter now’ since all restrictions are gone and so many are vaccinated
Lots of people deleting the app and not getting tested as they have holidays booked? Maybe.
@batfink Tougher times in NSW but the BBC reports restrictions elsewhere are being eased as its been "contained"?
Sadly you are now facing the reality of our lives for the last 12 months, albeit still from a much lower level of infection. The BBC report suggested that the Sydney outbreak is too far gone to be contained and pulled back now?
Not sure how Australia has got it so wrong after getting it so right. I thought the idea was to bring up the drawbridge until the vaccine was available that get that out asap. Clearly the drawbridge was only going to be able to stay up for so long. Is the low vaccinated percentage a consequence of poor purchasing by government or population apathy in taking it?
Not sure how Australia has got it so wrong after getting it so right. I thought the idea was to bring up the drawbridge until the vaccine was available that get that out asap. Clearly the drawbridge was only going to be able to stay up for so long. Is the low vaccinated percentage a consequence of poor purchasing by government or population apathy in taking it?
I’ve commented on this before… it’s a combination of (avoidable) issues, and one unavoidable one:
Vaccine procurement was very poor - all of the eggs were in the AZ basket
Very, very, very (almost unbelievably) bad government communication campaign re: vaccines. The press have been going to town on the AZ clotting issue, and the (Tory equivalent) government have been utterly silent on it.
Because of that, the vaccination of the older age group (plus care workers etc) ground to a halt….. and the federal government were asleep at the wheel - didn’t take any steps to address.
Because we’d been so successful at keeping the virus out - people didn’t (and still don’t really) understand why that can’t be a long-term plan. Because we weren’t in lockdown, and rafts of people dying each day, there was no real burning need (some people thought) to get vaccinated, particularly with a vaccine with such widely publicised side effects.
And then delta arrived - and our containment steps weren’t up to it.
Obviously, I got my vaccine at the very first available opportunity, but the vaccination rate in boomers is appalling - and they’ve had the last 6 months to get it
Have we done Ireland offering vaccines to children over 12?
Presumably they have the same risk data as the UK.
Have Ireland got the right stocks of vaccines to deliver it? (I'm all for vaccinating 12-18 year old, but think I read it was a supply issue as much as anything else)
All the EU states now have the stocks to deliver it. They're being delivered equally, besides, the Irish make the stuff:
