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The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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We’ve managed to work reasonably effectively for the last year remotely and are now part of a group of companies on 3 continents so most communication would be remote anyway.

Only thing I can think is that some opportunist slackers need a bit of whipping.

or... maybe just maybe people actually want to be in the office. As someone that has spent the last 18 or so month either working from a sofa or kitchen table i cant wait to get back in the office. My house is my home not where i wish to work.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 9:36 pm
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or… maybe just maybe people actually want to be in the office.

For me personally it's fine - I have my darling wife to keep me company, and there's always the dogs. Oh, and the children if I need someone to tell me how useless I am.

But for people I work with:
- One person has pretty much lived completely alone for the past 18 months since he's terrified of getting infected and has no immediate family
- Several people live in rented rooms, so they live in a bedroom surrounded by company equipment (TVs, monitors, computers, test kit, blah, blah).
- Several people have really hard home lives. Not everyone lives the idyllic dream home life. It's not much fun working at home for these people.
- One person has got so fed up that he's gone back to Romania, which is kind of a PITA.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 10:15 pm
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I have a work colleague who split up with his wife in lockdown last year, and couldn’t afford to move out. He’s now in the spare room working from home and his wife is in the marital bedroom with her new partner. I count myself very lucky that I have a dedicated office and a harmonious home life but I can entirely see why some people are chomping at the bit to get back in to the office.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 10:19 pm
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He’s now in the spare room working from home and his wife is in the marital bedroom with her new partner.

Patient caring type is she?


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 10:34 pm
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Patient caring type is she?

Erm, no. His mental health is a bit ****ed to be honest as you’d expect. I’ve been trying to get him back in the office as much as possible as it just does him good to mix with others. But he needs help to move out and there’s not much I can do in that regard unfortunately.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 10:41 pm
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Colleague of mine in London has been living and working from his studio flat, which has no windows whatsoever, since the start of the first lockdown. As he said, before that he was barely in there except to sleep. Others have it harder, as illustrated by the above examples.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 11:38 pm
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He’s now in the spare room working from home and his wife is in the marital bedroom with her new partner

I’d have built a new double size patio many months ago.


 
Posted : 24/07/2021 11:58 pm
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Erm, no. His mental health is a bit **** to be honest as you’d expect. I’ve been trying to get him back in the office as much as possible as it just does him good to mix with others. But he needs help to move out and there’s not much I can do in that regard unfortunately.

I can't imagine anything more horrible to put someone through, he needs away from that, if it was me I'd be walking from a burning building with the pair of them gaffer taped to the bed.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 2:06 am
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I just did a PCR test, negative, got friends coming for a covid free lunch tomorrow, why am I not hearing about everyone doing this? they are free, take 2 mins to do(and wait 30 mins for result) and you just pick them up at most pharmacies or order online, is it not a widespread thing yet?


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 2:25 am
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That's not a PCR test, it's a lateral flow and they're not as accurate.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:34 am
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I just did a PCR test, negative, got friends coming for a covid free lunch tomorrow, why am I not hearing about everyone doing this? they are free, take 2 mins to do(and wait 30 mins for result) and you just pick them up at most pharmacies or order online, is it not a widespread thing yet?

Dear god it's painful isn't it!!!


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:17 am
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Calling bullshit on the 99.7 percent and doing a full Tim Hatfield on that.
So it kills 3 in every 1000 people
So that’s 30 in every 10,000
300 in 100,000
3000 in a million
Population of uk, 67 million
So by those stats, in total about 201,000 people will die in the uk with it.

Hmmmmmm, but we are already upto 153,000 deaths.so less than 50,000 more deaths to go then, and then no one will have to care about COVID ever again......

Oh hang on, I don’t think in my circle of friends and family 3/4 of us have had it. But maybe that’s just me, think about your own social group?

( government website says so far 5 ish million people have caught it in the uk, which I think is an underestimation, but I very much doubt it’s 1000 percent higher at around 50 million)

( and yes I know covid has killed a greater percentage of the older /co morbidity people
So far, but then people will age and get older and sicker every day


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:30 am
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Lateral flow tests are pretty useless. Self tested false negatives are a huge issue.

the only reason we are using them is out corrupt "government" bought twelfty billion of the useless things


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:42 am
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We are doing that with lateral flow if seeing anyone remotely vulnerable- as I think many are.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:50 am
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Lateral flow tests are pretty useless. Self tested false negatives are a huge issue.

All 4 manufacturers LF will pick up (at above 70% sensitivity) cases with a high viral load (those folk who will likely spread the disease) so the test will generally find the ones it generally needs to. They're not fantastically totally accurate, especially used by untrained people, but then they don't need to be.

The Pharmaceutical Journal May 2021


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 9:01 am
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the only reason we are using them is out corrupt “government” bought twelfty billion of the useless things

Not known as 'Christmas Cracker Tests' for nothing - amongst those in the know.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 10:56 am
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Not known as ‘Christmas Cracker Tests’ for nothing – amongst those in the know.

And in other news, myself and better half tested ourselves, she got a pretty much instant positive. I got negative, the result was mirrored with the PCR test. Mine took a day longer to come back for whatever reason.

I'm double jabbed, she's only had one so far, she's ill, I'm fine and still negative on the lateral flow.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 11:34 am
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Anyway - stop cowering - Sajid's made a full recovery!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57958538

I think Sajid is clever enough to have picked his words carefully.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 11:47 am
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Looking for advice please.

All of our household have now tested positive. Me and Mrs Fazzini both double jabbed.

Mrs and youngest end original isolation on 27th confirmed by T&T who rang us about the youngest one, me on 29th. Eldest has just tested positive today despite us all being so careful as he was isolating anyway. When do we all have to isolate to? Cannot find this scenario on any official gov or NHS info. Do we all have to isolate for a further 10 days from yesterday when he first showed symptoms or just our original dates? Thanks.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 12:38 pm
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Lateral flow tests are pretty useless. Self tested false negatives are a huge issue.

the only reason we are using them is out corrupt “government” bought twelfty billion of the useless things

It doesn't help that it's easy to do them wrong and get a negative even if you're full of the virus. There's loads of info online about how to cheat them so you can go to that festival, gig etc.
A friend's work group is currently isolating after one of them went down with symptoms and managed to pass it on to all 4 of them despite them all taking lateral flow tests twice a week. The original guy took the test that morning and it came back clear but was showing symptoms by mid-morning, did the PCR that afternoon and it came back positive a few days later. The rest did laterals again in the afternoon and all still came back negative but two have now developed symptoms and then tested positive, the other two positive. All have now tested positive with the PCR tests so the lateral flow tests pretty much completely missed the virus.

The government have put all of their bets on the lateral flow tests, track and trace and good old common sense working and all 3 have major flaws. Put all 3 together and it's easy to see how the virus can bypass it all, let alone when people are not doing it correctly or deliberately trying to avoid getting 'caught' with it.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 1:35 pm
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Looks like Javid has deleted that tweet. Still, a nice signal to those anti-bedwetter types that someone is thinking of them.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 1:43 pm
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come out and play


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 1:57 pm
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It doesn’t help that it’s easy to do them wrong and get a negative even if you’re full of the virus. There’s loads of info online about how to cheat them so you can go to that festival, gig etc.
A friend’s work group is currently isolating after one of them went down with symptoms and managed to pass it on to all 4 of them despite them all taking lateral flow tests twice a week. The original guy took the test that morning and it came back clear but was showing symptoms by mid-morning, did the PCR that afternoon and it came back positive a few days later. The rest did laterals again in the afternoon and all still came back negative but two have now developed symptoms and then tested positive, the other two positive. All have now tested positive with the PCR tests so the lateral flow tests pretty much completely missed the virus.

Having done tens of lateral flow tests now I do wonder if I am the weak link in the testing regime. In reality it relies on you wanting to do a thorough job of making yourself gag down your throat then sneeze up your nose. I've caught myself a few times not doing a proper job as subconsciously I'd rather not do either.

But....PCR's better.....my one experience of a PCR at a drive in it was still me unsupervised in my car performing the same joyous acts. Does the PCR do a substantially better job with the same mediocre sample? It's still an untrained idiot poking a stick in an orifice.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:00 pm
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Yep. And looking at the demographic of the anti-vax, anti-lockdown mob, it will improve the ambience of a lot of places if they’re not allowed in. Keep them in the flat-roofed shitholes

Strange that, the few people that I know that have decided not to have the vaccine yet are really nice people

And the surrounding groups of friends that have been vaxxed don't shout them down, chastise, or exclude them from anything. They let them get on with living their life how they see fit and carry on being friends with them.

All people that I'd much rather spend time with than some on here with the views they express

Still, this is a group of people on here that agree with throwing someone out of a house party because thay have a different voting bias to them, so I wouldn't expect it to be much different tbh


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:21 pm
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...And a full apology https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57961870

deleted that tweet.

I don't believe there is any such thing now. From Twitter, maybe.

My friend is a widow. Her husband didn't cower - he caught COVID in hospital when he was admitted for something unrelated due to his progressive MS.

Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases...


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:28 pm
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Strange that, the few people that I know that have decided not to have the vaccine yet are really nice people

Aye, there's a small group on here that like to think that antivax = Brexiteer, Tory, petrol head, lager swilling, right wing, blah blah blah.

Which is obviously utter horseshite.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:34 pm
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Aye, there’s a small group on here that like to think that antivax = Brexiteer, Tory, petrol head, lager swilling, right wing, blah blah blah.

Which is obviously utter horseshite.

Whilst there maybe some truth in this, of those in my acquaintance who I know have not taken the vaccine offer they fall rather precisely into two categories - those that make a habit of making very unwise or not though through life choices that come back to bite them on the bum and those that ply their trade in sales. Again, only from a very small sample set but the former group have been swayed by the social media untried/test stuff and the latter group have made a personal (and in my mind self centred) choice that cost/risk benefit of them taking it is not worth it especially as the 'sheeple' are all taking it so the risk to them has come down anyway without having to add any personal risk from the vaccine.

Neither group has a huge number of brexity nobbers specifically . They have not been shunned by their peers but I'd say relationships have cooled with their vaccinated friends and neighbours. The former group are considered ill informed, the later just plain selfish (but they always were).


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:48 pm
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Aye, there’s a small group on here that like to think that antivax = Brexiteer, Tory, petrol head, lager swilling, right wing, blah blah blah.

Nope.

Aye, there’s a small group on here that like to think that shouty, loudmouthed chavvy antivax = a bit dim and entitled therefore more likely to be Brexiteer, not necessarily Tory, petrol head Well if driving a souped-up Citroën saxo mens petrolhead, lager swilling as well as prosecco and chardonnay, right wing in the new selfish sense, blah blah blah.

FTFY


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:52 pm
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I only know of one person who refuses the jag tbh, my sis in law, she's a worrier who really, really wanted kids, struggled and had to work at it, then one of her kids spent a long time in hospital as a baby. She really looks for things that may harm her kids, as it's all she thinks about.

She's not any of those other stereotypes.

An even smaller sample than you though convert!

Edit - citreon saxo? **** me, you've been isolating for a long while dannyboy! 🤣🤣🤣


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 3:54 pm
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you’ve been isolating for a long while dannyboy!

First chavmobile I could think of!


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 4:21 pm
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I have friends who haven't (or hadn't) vaccinated. Their choice and a few times I've thought of dropping them a line to say the local centre is doing walk-ins, for instance, but ultimately they're grown-ups and it's their choice. I do hope they don't suffer for it though.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 4:31 pm
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I do hope they don’t suffer for it though.

This sadly is where the muddled thinking is.....they may or may not suffer but that is a personal choice you can make like deciding to be a sky diver or not. What should be keeping them up at night is if they don't take it and pass covid on to someone unintentionally and they suffer. Clearly still possible having been vaccinated, but not as easily.

Electing not to be vaccinated to me is akin to drink driving. You might well hurt yourself with the choice and if that's all it was that would be fine. But you might easily hurt the family member in the passenger seat too, or the random member of the public you don't know until you hit them. Chances are you won't hurt anyone but you might - and with drink driving the risk to others makes it socially irresponsible.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 4:38 pm
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Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

my guess would be there's now no football


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 5:09 pm
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Sadly the chap involved lost his aunt and uncle to this thing last year. I agree - my worst fear alongside suffering long term effects has been passing it on to someone less able to deal with it than I might be. I'm in no hurry to see them again. 😟


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 5:45 pm
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Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

My guess is that under 18s are no longer testing twice a week for school. So fewer tests being done so fewer positive results found. Didn't the drop in Scotland start when the school broke up there as well.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:13 pm
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There's definitely a dip in the number of tests that correlate with the dip in cases. If you go by percentages though it's still higher but the only reliable indicator now is the numbers in hospital, they can't really manipulate that as yet.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:20 pm
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My guess is that under 18s are no longer testing twice a week for school. So fewer tests being done so fewer positive results found. Didn’t the drop in Scotland start when the school broke up there as well.

The test will presumably be if hospitalisation and deaths follow on 3-4 weeks time.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:23 pm
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Playing with data to try and make sense of the recent downturn in cases…

My thoughts, without data...

A reverse in national attitude to testing intent.

Tests were being used to find covid and reduce transmission. Symptoms would mean a test and isolation. People tested because they thought they could have it.

More tests now are being used to access social life. So people are testing when they think they don't have it, tests to show they're clear. And with lesser symptoms after jabs, some are avoiding tests when they might have it to avoid isolating with holidays and other socials booked.
"Pingdemic" language has redefined the problem as having to isolate, not having covid.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:41 pm
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“Pingdemic” language has redefined the problem as having to isolate, not having covid.

The willingness of just about every media outlet to help with this has been a bit of an eye opener for me. I'm not even sure they were all aware they were doing it... just nodding along to "this week's story" without any real analysis of what they were doing, and the likely result... making our laughable track/trace/isolate system even less successful than it already was.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 7:52 pm
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Zoe data isn't showing the same trend, no downturn yet which is odd...


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:22 pm
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@morecashthandash Very true with the hospitalization being the better indicator.

We could have got to herd immunity with 9/10 adults having antibodies, it would be better if they included children in the data. But as long as the numbers keep going in the correct direction its good.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:30 pm
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From your link, Kentishman

It is not yet known how having detectable antibodies, now or at some time in the past, affects the chance of becoming infected or experiencing symptoms, as other parts of the immune system (T cell response) will offer protection.

It's good that a lot of people have detectable antibodies, but I'm sure that it doesn't directly translate to effective immunity as part of a herd. We know that someone who caught Covid in 2020 may well be susceptible to Delta, even though they have antibodies. Pretty much everyone vaccinated with a single dose will have detectable antibodies, but we know that this is relatively ineffective against catching or transmitting Delta.

It's not a bad thing - every little helps, and if a high antibody+ % was an effective barrier to transmission, then we would be almost there. Unfortunately, we've a little way to go, and a new variant can make it even harder, as can waning immunity among those who caught it or were vaccinated a while back.

The recent fall in positive tests is not an indicator that this wave is starting to run out of steam, unless it is confirmed by a similar fall in hospitalisations/deaths over the next few weeks.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:45 pm
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The recent fall in positive tests is not an indicator that this wave is starting to run out of steam, unless it is confirmed by a similar fall in hospitalisations/deaths over the next few weeks.

Which is exactly what we're seeing in Scotland.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 8:49 pm
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Let's hope so. I keep looking at current data for places like Bolton to gauge the shape of this particular curve, as I'd expect other places which started later to pretty much follow this pattern.


 
Posted : 25/07/2021 9:11 pm
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By scaling from the past alpha peak over Christmas, and shifting cases, admissions and deaths to align based on their individual peaks, I produced the following scaled/shifted plot. Since it's on a log2 scale you can read off doubling and halving times as each crossing of a y-axis gridline.

Deaths have fallen much faster than cases and admissions during lockdown. There was an 18-week period from peak to trough and (perhaps) another 12-week period to peak of Wave 3. Cases have been growing almost twice as fast as admissions. deaths accelerated and caught up with admissions. If this is a peak in cases, then there are another 10-days for admissions and 21 days for deaths. Hope it makes sense.


 
Posted : 26/07/2021 1:26 am
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